julien's baseball blog

Some moves are slightly good. Some moves are slightly bad. I tell you about them.
Thursday, January 27, 2005
 
more mail
this is from andrew goodrich:


I was going to dig into the research and find some numbers to back me up, but I'll let it go. Because, as a Tiger fan, I'm curious what you think about Curtis Granderson. Logan does have a cool name though. And he was a fine 'guy' last year in limited duty.

p.s. Pierzynski, doesn't take walks, doesn't take pitches, doesn't leg it to first....hits into double plays, hits doubles, hits .300, but doesn't really get on base.Great hitter for a catcher, but no better a #5 slot, and killed so many Bonds rallies....the Bizarro, less-desirable Posada. Somewhat similar hitter to Nomar actually, without the slugging. I still kinda like tho.


the pierzynski-nomar comparison is apt. both make great contact. i think the white sox actually made a strong pickup with pierzynski. he's valuable because he can hit any pitcher.

curtis granderson, well, the sky's the limit for this kid:


Year Age Team Lg. aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
2002 21 Oneonta NYPL 213 27 35 3 19 .113 .836 .124 .344
2003 22 Lakeland FSL 479 61 91 11 39 .113 .810 .129 .286
2004 23 Erie East 466 84 95 21 27 .153 .796 .129 .303
2004 23 Detroit AL 25 3 8 0 2 .107 .680 .118 .240


first of all, he's 23, and he's already got patience. and power. he hit 21 home runs in 2004, and may have been unlucky with doubles. expect pow to go up this year. also, his con has remained steady despite promotions every year, which is crucial.

he'll probably start the year in triple-a. with the rapid progress he's shown so far, it's entirely possible that he'll end up in the show by the end of the year.

it's funny, we were in chicago at the same time. if i had known, i could have gone and seen him.

this is an exciting time to be a tigers fan. i'm not kidding. i love rebuilding periods, when you have a people who know what they're doing. people like dave dombrowski.

there are some promising players on this team. omar infante had a breakout season last year, brandon inge became useful, marcus thames started crushing, and chris shelton should contribute.

as far as more established players go, carlos guillen is a murderer, and pudge rodriguez is obviously an asset. and jeremy bonderman is going to start dominating.

they won't compete for the division, but they might beat the white sox. with the development programs of the twins, indians, and tigers, the al central is on the rise.
 
mail from josh
i got a letter from my friend josh. i added responses.


On Sun, 23 Jan 2005 22:20:45 -0600, Josh Unterman wrote:

> hafner's wal is significantly higher than ortiz's, no?
> and he's young.
> i bet hafner is a difference maker next year.

i agree.

> and i think big frank is a huge difference maker if full playing time.
> the problem is he'll never get full playing time.
> he was having a rockin season last year.
> he gets bad press.
> i don't get it.
> white sox fans should love him.

there's only one kind of difference maker. but yeah frank is one if he
keeps up the numbers he had last year. white sox fans are morons. so
are white sox general managers. and white sox owners.

> and i think you're being a bit harsh on the young indians.
> it seems they've got a whole team of up and comers, not guys.
> but i'm becoming an indians fan, so maybe i'm too optimistic.

yeah, they're up-and-comers. i think i said that in the position
reports. what i meant is in 2005 we can only expect guy-level
production. but 2006---watch out!


apologies to any white sox fans out there. i wasn't talking about you. i was talking about those other white sox fans. yeah.

i also got this letter:


On Sun, 23 Jan 2005 22:25:58 -0600, Josh Unterman wrote:

> look at how this one turned out:
>
> Friday, January 09, 2004
>
> the mariners are stupid
> carlos guillen is better than rich aurilia.

ha yeah i love it when things work out like that.

really they did it to make room for jose lopez, but they had to
pretend like they were doing it to get someone the fans had heard
about. goes to show what happens when your trade priorities are other
than getting the best value. billy beane doesn't make that mistake.


jose lopez, by the way, is a killer. i had him ranked 35 in my top prospect list last year. looks like he should have been a little higher. i depends on if you're thinking about his immediate impact or his long-term value. i tend to think long-term. if this kid ever develops any patience, he's unstoppable.
Sunday, January 23, 2005
 
the international
league.

yes here it is no more fuckin around we finished the analysis of the major leagues basically maybe i'll do some sort of wrap-up or something but look at what else there is to do: the minor leagues! now we're gonna get down to it. now we're gonna see if the wal con pow system has any teeth.

we've ordered by age because the younger the player, the better the prospect. data is from the baseball cube. i think they do age at end of season. then they're sorted by name because some of these guys played for two teams (in the internationl league. others played for teams in other leagues, but that (those?) data are not presented here (why do i have all these parentheses (i'm running amock. i have to be careful or it'll start to look like emoticons (:)).)?))

yeah.


player tm age aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
B.J. Upton tbd 20 264 45 72 12 18 .146 .727 .156 .311


baseball prospectus is like "look how cool we are" but all they do is find young players in the upper minors. oh, sorry, they program computers to do it. i'm not bitter.

bj upton is good. he's got to get his strikeouts under control but he's got time to do that. in the majors at 20 = good.


Dioner Navarro nyy 20 140 15 17 1 10 .097 .879 .089 .250


this kid is about to be a star. i rated him #15 in my top prospect list last year, and he keeps improving. the one thing you can count on with young players is improved power, and once that happens, he'll be mashing everything in sight.


David Wright nym 21 116 18 19 8 8 .134 .836 .165 .298


i had him at #11 last year, but i expected him to take longer than he did. instead, he pulled a reversal, improving every time he was promoted.


Robinson Cano nyy 21 218 19 27 6 11 .080 .876 .089 .259


i've never heard of this guy before, but he can obviously hit. ok, i've heard of him, but i don't remember him. what is he, a middle infielder? let's find out.

wow. 35 extra-base hits at trenton last year indicate he has power. will the rookie of the year be a yankee? where do the yankees keep getting these prospects? yes, yes, i know. san pedro de macoris.

rookie of the year discussions are pointless because it all depends on playing time and when they're debuted. which makes the rookie of the year a pointless award. but anyway this kid's gonna make it. big time.

what else do we got?


Corey Hart mil 22 447 44 92 15 37 .090 .794 .146 .281


wow, after a successful career in music, he's turning to baseball. and he's only 22! i wonder if he still wears his sunglasses.

i know, i crack you up. but this kid is gonna make it. he's made great strides in contact the last three years, improving despite a jump in level. he's young. he's strong. the brewers got a lot of promise comin out of the bushes with weeks, hardy, fielder, hart, i don't know who else but hopefully they got a couple pitchers.


Dave Kryznel mil 22 260 23 65 6 14 .081 .750 .103 .276


kryznel also has talent. he's got farther to go though because he has neither the contact nor the power of hart. and he plays outfield. but he's left-handed. he could do it.


Grady Sizemore cle 22 427 50 72 8 32 .105 .831 .113 .288


nmber 14 prospect last year. now in the show. sky's the limit.


Guillermo Quiroz tor 22 257 31 54 8 20 .108 .790 .138 .227


look at his batting average and you might wonder what happened. but look at his wal con pow's and you know it was bad luck. quiroz actually made significant gains in contact. i had him at #6, and i'm not backing off.


J.J. Hardy mil 22 103 9 8 4 10 .080 .922 .147 .277


well, those numbers are insane. what did he do with bigger sample sizes? oh, he was injured.

last year i rated him my number 12 prospect. i said he'd be ready in 2005. i'll stand by that statement.


Jason Kubel min 22 354 35 40 16 28 .090 .887 .140 .343


well that's some serious mashing right there. where the hell did he come from? in 2003 he was tearing up fort myers. this year i'm gonna find the jason kubels. now that i have the baseball cube.

what the hell are the twins gonna *do* with all these prospects?


Jhonny Peralta cle 22 569 59 129 15 46 .094 .773 .139 .323


ready to succeed. jhonny didn't make my prospect list last year, but he will this year.


Joey Gathright tbd 22 236 22 46 0 10 .085 .805 .053 .326


he's left-handed. if gathright improves his contact, he can slap-and-run. i think he'll make it.


Jorge Cantu tbd 22 371 20 64 22 34 .051 .827 .182 .302


jorge already made it. that conpow is retarded.


Victor Diaz nym 22 537 36 133 24 32 .063 .752 .139 .292


needs more patience, contact. he could make it.


Alexis Rios tor 23 186 9 30 3 11 .046 .839 .090 .259


my number 1 prospect from last year, rios turns 24 the same day i turn 31. he's gonna crush. am i old?


Anderson Machado cin 23 111 11 26 0 7 .090 .766 .082 .229
Anderson Machado phi 23 299 51 73 6 17 .146 .756 .102 .227


funny how similar those batting averages are. anderson machado is a shortstop. the phillies traded him and josh hancock for todd jones and brad correll. the phillies are stupid.


Brandon Phillips cle 23 557 52 56 8 38 .085 .899 .092 .296


part of the cadre of kid indians that's about to take over. this one's gonna be a star.

if he made the majors, then went back to the minors, is he a prospect?


Jason Cooper cle 23 52 9 16 3 1 .148 .692 .111 .173


never heard of this guy. probably never will.


Jeremy Reed cws 23 283 39 34 8 15 .121 .880 .092 .275


number 9 last year. made the show. ready to crush. course the white sox don't have him any more. they're gonna wish they did. no disrespect to scott podsednik. wait, *yes* disrespect to scott podsednik.


Jonny Gomes tbd 23 397 73 136 26 28 .155 .657 .207 .256


unless he gets his strikeouts under control, he's not gonna make it.


Jorge Sequea tor 23 336 41 63 4 19 .109 .813 .084 .266


wow. he's an infielder, he's 24, and he's got patience and contact. i think he's gonna make it.


Justin Morneau min 23 291 35 47 22 23 .107 .838 .184 .306


this one's a killer. the twins are looking good.


Mike Jacobs nym 23 97 9 30 2 3 .085 .691 .075 .177


he looked good in 2003, but then 2004 happened. from what i can tell, he got hurt. he's worth watching.


Rainer Olmedo cin 23 294 25 40 2 20 .078 .864 .087 .286


made the majors in 2003 and hit .239 with no power. if he ever develops any, he'll be good.


Austin Kearns cin 24 83 21 16 2 8 .202 .807 .149 .337


2005 is an important year for austin. will he finally live up to all the hype? he's young, so you gotta like his chances, but he struck out a lot last year.


Bill McCarthy atl 24 181 18 32 6 14 .090 .823 .134 .354


those are pretty good numbers. he's an outfielder. don't be surprised if he makes the show this year.

no wonder the braves dumped their (non-andruw) outfield. they got kids that can play!


Brandon Gemoll mil 24 248 14 65 3 19 .053 .738 .120 .274


that's a lot of strikeouts. time is running out.


Chris Shelton det 24 63 10 13 0 2 .137 .794 .040 .339


well, he tore up the carolina league. but that was in 2003. i don't know what happened last year. did he get hurt, or did he ride the pine? rotoworld says
plantar fascitis.
good shot to make the show this year.


Craig Brazell nym 24 476 24 99 23 24 .048 .792 .125 .265


he's an infielder, which is a good sign. and he hit 23 home runs. and he's left-handed. but he turns 25 in may, and he's never gonna have a decent on-base percentage if he doesn't start taking some pitches.


Danny Garcia nym 24 242 22 35 2 15 .083 .855 .082 .260


another met. made the show last year. his problem is he has no power.


Felipe Lopez cin 24 298 27 71 9 14 .083 .762 .101 .273


acquired from toronto in the four-way trade that sent elmer dessens to the diamondbacks and erubiel durazo to the a's, felipe lopez has played half-time in the majors the last four seasons. you gotta figure he'll put it together. just a little more contact and a little more power and he starts to put up good numbers.


Gabe Gross tor 24 379 54 81 9 31 .125 .786 .134 .294


gross, wells, and rios. sounds good.


Jason Bartlett min 24 267 40 36 3 22 .130 .865 .108 .332


jesus. look at this guy. i guess he's the replacement for cristian guzman. he broke his wrist last year, but he should be fine.

twins just keep on rollin.


Jean Boscan atl 24 62 10 14 0 2 .139 .774 .042 .311


62 at-bats is meaningless. so is the rest of his career.


Jimmy Alvarez bos 24 102 8 20 3 6 .073 .804 .110 .218


didn't play much this season. past seasons have included lots of strikeouts with little power. good patience, though.


Kelly Shoppach bos 24 401 52 138 22 25 .115 .656 .179 .233


that's a lot of power, but he won't make it unless he improves that contact.


Kevin West min 24 78 3 19 4 7 .037 .756 .186 .276


another twin with promise. 25 homers and 35 doubles in aa last year, but lots of strikeouts.


Luis Rodriguez min 24 488 54 49 5 34 .100 .900 .089 .286


oh, he's a twin. all he needs is a little power, and he's there. switch-hitting infielder.


Mike Fontenot bal 24 529 57 111 8 40 .097 .790 .115 .279


lefty-hitting second baseman. pretty good chance to make it. decent skills in all areas.


Nook Logan det 24 429 26 95 2 23 .057 .779 .075 .262


nook made the bigs, but he's not very good. it's too bad; he's got a great name.


Russ Adams tor 24 488 50 62 5 40 .093 .873 .106 .288


russ made it for good last year. this kid can hit.


Ryan Howard phi 24 111 16 37 9 10 .126 .667 .257 .270


while comical, those numbers don't mean anything. ha! he hit 37 homers in 374 at-bats in double-a! but he struck out 129 times. that has to improve if he wants to hit in the bigs.


Ryan Langerhans atl 24 458 76 113 20 37 .142 .753 .165 .298


those are great numbers. power and patience skyrocketed last year.


Wilson Betemit atl 24 358 32 99 13 26 .082 .723 .151 .278


betemit's still trying to learn to hit the ball. he's about to start his fourth year in richmond. he may never escape.


Caonabo Cosme nyy 25 234 23 56 3 11 .089 .761 .079 .250


wow, what a name! too bad he can't play.


Cesar Crespo bos 25 222 21 53 4 16 .086 .761 .118 .271


cesar got 153 major-league at-bats for san diego before they realized he couldn't hit. that was in 2001. he's 25 now, but it's entirely possible that he'll develop enough power to be useful.


Charles Thomas atl 25 216 22 40 4 22 .092 .815 .148 .358


in 2003, charles thomas was striking out like a bitch in a-ball. then he got inexplicably promoted, and all of a sudden he started to hit. he roared into the majors in 2004, then got traded for tim hudson. along with dan meyer. and juan cruz. that's a lot of talent. i should have done an analysis. both sides won.


Chase Utley phi 25 126 18 29 6 9 .125 .770 .155 .285


funny, utley had better contact in the majors.


Chris Basak nym 25 194 10 58 6 15 .049 .701 .154 .223


no patience, no contact.


Dane Sardinha cin 25 328 16 94 9 18 .047 .713 .115 .262


ditto.


Darnell McDonald bal 25 415 37 100 7 33 .082 .759 .127 .234


ditto.


Dave Parrish nyy 25 97 7 23 0 8 .067 .763 .108 .268


whatev.


David Bacani nym 25 144 19 34 2 12 .117 .764 .127 .264


u-huh.


Eddy Garabito bal 25 452 44 48 6 32 .089 .894 .094 .298
Felix Escalona nyy 25 454 48 56 7 33 .096 .877 .101 .308


look how similar these guys are. contact, patience, and developing power. they're both gonna make it. i think they're middle infielders.


Jack Cust bal 25 346 67 127 17 16 .162 .633 .151 .235


well, that didn't work. good try.


James Jurries atl 25 318 33 96 18 16 .094 .698 .153 .267


too many strikeouts.


Jason Romano cin 25 164 3 24 2 16 .018 .854 .129 .337


i don't know what to make of this guy. he looked great as a 20-year-old in the florida state league, and the next year in the texas league. since then he hasn't had a regular job anywhere. he's played in the majors for five different teams, but not enough to tell anything. you'd think he'd be good by now. maybe he is. maybe not, if that wal is any indication.


Jeff Duncan nym 25 204 23 52 2 13 .101 .745 .099 .256


not good enough.


Joe Borchard cws 25 304 32 68 16 21 .095 .776 .157 .266


wow, joe actually made decent contact. maybe he'll make it after all.


Jorge Padilla phi 25 367 55 75 7 12 .130 .796 .065 .253


nope.


Josh Rabe min 25 428 46 75 7 27 .097 .825 .096 .264


maybe.


Kenny Kelly cin 25 272 27 71 9 19 .090 .739 .139 .254


don't think so.


Kevin Youkilis bos 25 156 21 28 3 12 .119 .821 .117 .266


made it.


Michael Restovichmin 25 424 26 103 20 23 .058 .757 .134 .249


not likely.


Pete Orr atl 25 462 22 59 1 26 .045 .872 .067 .320


lefty shortstop. could develop as a slap-and-run, but not for atlanta.


Prentice Redman nym 25 216 18 57 4 19 .077 .736 .145 .254


needs more patience, contact.


Terry Tiffee min 25 317 25 26 12 29 .073 .918 .141 .307


i thought he was a fluke, but these numbers are for real.


Tim Hummel cin 25 154 14 27 2 13 .083 .825 .118 .289


tim can hit major-league pitching.


Tim Raines bal 25 273 23 69 1 14 .078 .747 .074 .262


tim can't hit major-league pitching.


Tim Whittaker tor 25 147 4 28 1 10 .026 .810 .092 .257


tim can't hit major-league pitching either.


Aaron McNeal cws 26 111 11 30 3 2 .090 .730 .062 .243


i don't know. whatever.


Alex Escobar cle 26 63 6 15 4 5 .087 .762 .188 .286


alex used to be a prospect, but he struck out too much.

we've reached the 26-year-olds. 26-year-olds are not prospects. unless somebody messed up.

comments will be intermittent.


Andres Torres cws 26 324 40 74 8 15 .110 .772 .092 .295
Brant Ust det 26 410 18 97 10 19 .042 .763 .093 .254
Brian Hitchcox phi 26 136 23 16 1 11 .145 .882 .100 .235


that's a small sample size, but it looks good. let's check out the rest of his career.

yeah. he's got a history of good wal and good con. all he needs is a little pow. it could happen. he's a second baseman.


Dan Massiatte tbd 26 91 11 30 0 5 .108 .670 .082 .146
Dewayne Wise atl 26 118 5 19 5 10 .041 .839 .152 .314


played a little big-league ball last year. he's usable.


Eric Crozier cle 26 296 37 67 20 21 .111 .774 .179 .297
Eric Crozier tor 26 94 18 27 1 8 .161 .713 .134 .277


eric was traded for josh phelps. good trade for toronto. they're the same player, but crozier has less major-league service time. (he's cheaper.)


Guillermo Rodrigudet 26 221 17 45 7 10 .071 .796 .097 .187
Henri Stanley bos 26 165 23 27 3 18 .122 .836 .152 .299


stanley. those are good numbers. did he keep it up with larger sample sizes?

yes. yes he did. it's time to give henri some major-league playing time.


Jared Sandberg tbd 26 438 32 138 19 27 .068 .685 .153 .230


son of sandberg must not be allowed to play in the major leagues.


Jeff Deardorff nyy 26 437 53 112 18 16 .108 .744 .105 .271
Joey Hammond bal 26 275 23 42 1 8 .077 .847 .039 .236
John Rodriguez nyy 26 381 56 84 16 36 .128 .780 .175 .294


well. he hits it hard. he could probably play in the big leagues and not embarass himself.


Jon Aceves cws 26 152 19 35 7 10 .111 .770 .145 .285
Josh Bard cle 26 157 11 23 4 10 .065 .854 .104 .263


major leaguer. small sample size does not reflect his power.


Justin Sherrod bos 26 343 29 108 17 25 .078 .685 .179 .267
Kevin Reese nyy 26 218 17 34 8 16 .072 .844 .130 .323


another yankee farmhand who can hit. these poor yankees. they got the skills but they languish in the minors. reese also stole 68 bases in 2004. left-handed outfielder.


Matt Diaz tbd 26 508 39 96 21 52 .071 .811 .177 .332


that's power. why's he in the minors? play him!


Matt Scanlon min 26 73 13 12 1 0 .151 .836 .016 .192
Michel Hernandez phi 26 235 27 24 6 9 .103 .898 .071 .254


25--26 year-olds pretty much gotta have contact if they're gonna make the bigs. because then all they need is power, which often develops at this stage. so michel has a good shot. he's a catcher.


Mike Hessman atl 26 269 35 65 19 15 .115 .758 .167 .287


lots of power but little contact. quadruple-a kind of guy.


Mike Vento nyy 26 458 43 77 15 29 .086 .832 .115 .275


another mid-twenties yankee that can hit. no wonder they won their division. the columbus clippers.


Nick Green atl 26 78 10 9 0 5 .114 .885 .072 .377


got some good p.t. due to the injury to marcus giles. did well.


Pablo Ozuna phi 26 477 29 43 6 30 .057 .910 .083 .307


another good candidate for a power surge. shortstop.

played at colorado springs last year. i think playing at altitude helps the hitting.


Pete Laforest tbd 26 276 35 64 7 19 .113 .768 .123 .222


not enough. it's hard. triple-a players are *good* baseball players. just not good enough for the majors.


Peter Bergeron mil 26 318 21 39 3 17 .062 .877 .072 .271


hey, peter bergeron! he used to be a prospect. but he didn't have any power.


Rayner Bautista det 26 211 14 58 1 17 .062 .725 .118 .218
Rob Stratton cin 26 121 9 35 12 12 .069 .711 .279 .353


maybe he and bergeron could do a little contact-for-power trade.


Ryan Ludwick cle 26 168 20 52 8 15 .106 .690 .198 .271


rotoworld keeps talking him up, but he can't hit. they think he's better than jody gerut.


Ryan Owens min 26 103 24 33 1 7 .189 .680 .114 .218
Shawn Fagan tor 26 330 45 72 8 13 .120 .782 .081 .237
Steve Scarboroughmil 26 342 50 72 4 31 .128 .789 .130 .246
Steve Smitherman cin 26 455 48 107 10 36 .095 .765 .132 .272
Wilson Valdez cws 26 281 15 40 2 9 .051 .858 .046 .302
Andy Phillips nyy 27 439 53 60 26 25 .108 .863 .135 .318
Brent Abernathy cle 27 361 36 29 10 28 .091 .920 .114 .296


now we're into the 27-year-olds but phillips and abernathy are ready to play. phillips is a second baseman. looks like he was injured last year. abernathy is also a second baseman. his contact is insane and his power finally developed. he started for the devil rays in 2001--2002 but somehow ended up back in the minors the past two seasons. now he's blocked by alex cora and brandon phillips. and ron belliard. what is cleveland doing?


Brooks Badeaux tbd 27 195 17 23 1 10 .080 .882 .064 .326
Chad Hermansen tor 27 150 16 52 6 10 .096 .653 .163 .240
Chris Magruder mil 27 307 31 55 6 21 .092 .821 .107 .272
Damian Rolls tbd 27 97 10 17 3 7 .093 .825 .125 .278
Glenn Williams tor 27 440 42 79 23 27 .087 .820 .139 .264
Jason Smith det 27 124 6 26 3 10 .046 .790 .133 .270
Jason Tyner atl 27 244 22 22 1 13 .083 .910 .063 .288
Jason Tyner cle 27 148 20 15 0 5 .119 .899 .038 .350
Jeremy Owens bos 27 348 38 140 12 17 .098 .598 .139 .228
Jose Leon bal 27 288 31 68 17 23 .097 .764 .182 .322
Kevin Hooper nyy 27 87 5 11 0 1 .054 .874 .013 .195
Lee Evans atl 27 181 22 57 7 8 .108 .685 .121 .239
Marcus Thames det 27 238 35 40 24 22 .128 .832 .232 .329
Mario Valenzuela cws 27 432 28 81 25 22 .061 .813 .134 .263
Marlon Byrd phi 27 153 14 18 2 12 .084 .882 .104 .263
Michael Ryan min 27 171 17 38 6 7 .090 .778 .098 .205
Mike Collins nym 27 77 3 16 0 3 .038 .792 .049 .162
Mike Curry bos 27 166 26 43 0 5 .135 .741 .041 .262
Nate Grindell cle 27 69 10 17 2 5 .127 .754 .135 .343
Noah Hall tor 27 176 33 38 2 6 .158 .784 .058 .233
Reggie Taylor cws 27 212 23 45 11 14 .098 .788 .150 .290
Reggie Taylor cin 27 193 14 46 9 10 .068 .762 .129 .257
Rich Gomez det 27 253 21 56 5 12 .077 .779 .086 .261
Rich Paz cws 27 95 18 11 2 2 .159 .884 .048 .263
Rodney Nye nym 27 430 37 81 5 27 .079 .812 .092 .277
Ryan Knox mil 27 174 15 33 1 12 .079 .810 .092 .264
Scott Bikowski cws 27 66 9 18 1 1 .120 .727 .042 .197
Simon Pond tor 27 304 22 72 7 25 .067 .763 .138 .278
Steve Lomasney cin 27 133 12 49 3 6 .083 .632 .107 .252
Tony Schrager bos 27 440 52 88 15 29 .106 .800 .125 .266
Alex Prieto min 28 289 30 50 6 13 .094 .827 .079 .249
Andy Dominique bos 28 423 63 87 15 28 .130 .794 .128 .267
Brandon Harper det 28 59 9 10 3 0 .132 .831 .061 .190
Brandon Larson cin 28 118 6 39 9 5 .048 .669 .177 .282
Brian Myrow nyy 28 164 25 37 3 15 .132 .774 .142 .268
Bubba Crosby nyy 28 119 18 26 1 7 .131 .782 .086 .276
Buzz Hannahan phi 28 218 26 49 0 13 .107 .775 .077 .281
Carlos Febles bos 28 261 24 42 3 14 .084 .839 .078 .257
Corky Miller cin 28 232 34 44 6 14 .128 .810 .106 .220
Derek Nicholson det 28 64 11 10 1 9 .147 .844 .185 .274
Dionys Cesar cin 28 54 5 8 0 4 .085 .852 .087 .185
Dionys Cesar cws 28 81 6 13 1 4 .069 .840 .074 .300
Earl Snyder bos 28 544 42 128 36 44 .072 .765 .192 .273
Edwards Guzman tbd 28 84 2 8 0 4 .023 .905 .053 .202
Edwards Guzman bal 28 248 11 28 2 11 .042 .887 .059 .254
Esix Snead nym 28 273 37 53 0 12 .119 .806 .055 .264
Jermaine Clark cin 28 404 70 54 10 20 .148 .866 .086 .284
Paul Chiaffredo tor 28 117 9 31 4 3 .071 .735 .081 .219
Paul Hoover tbd 28 55 5 15 1 1 .083 .727 .050 .296
Robinson Cancel tbd 28 57 2 10 1 7 .034 .825 .170 .263
Russell Branyan cle 28 319 47 102 25 18 .128 .680 .198 .288
Ryan Hankins cws 28 304 35 33 7 28 .103 .891 .129 .296
Anton French tor 29 151 12 33 7 12 .074 .781 .161 .349
Anton French tbd 29 112 15 27 4 3 .118 .759 .082 .227
Augie Ojeda min 29 329 45 33 2 19 .120 .900 .071 .245
Bobby Darula cin 29 63 9 13 1 3 .125 .794 .080 .302
Brandon Marsters min 29 186 15 51 3 14 .075 .726 .126 .210
Danny Klassen det 29 398 37 105 5 30 .085 .736 .119 .253
Donzell McDonald nyy 29 94 10 24 3 7 .096 .745 .143 .183
Gary Burnham cin 29 223 22 33 5 15 .090 .852 .105 .261
George Lombard bos 29 192 29 33 3 11 .131 .828 .088 .276
Geronimo Gil bal 29 375 38 67 6 24 .092 .821 .097 .259
Javier Cardona nym 29 64 6 14 1 1 .086 .781 .040 .111
Jim Chamblee cin 29 401 66 117 11 28 .141 .708 .137 .262
John Pachot nym 29 291 13 41 6 10 .043 .859 .064 .262
Jorge Toca det 29 64 1 14 1 1 .015 .781 .040 .254
Jorge Velandia atl 29 393 47 67 6 22 .107 .830 .086 .212
Julius Matos tor 29 296 17 20 7 19 .054 .932 .094 .288
Kelly Dransfeldt cws 29 309 18 63 5 19 .055 .796 .098 .249
Luis Ordaz tbd 29 365 13 51 3 33 .034 .860 .115 .255
Mark Johnson mil 29 280 44 41 5 18 .136 .854 .096 .259
Matt Erickson mil 29 403 56 68 2 28 .122 .831 .090 .271
Mike Bell cws 29 461 45 117 25 22 .089 .746 .137 .235
Todd Dunwoody min 29 307 14 60 9 28 .044 .805 .150 .305
Todd Dunwoody cle 29 66 6 15 4 2 .083 .773 .118 .167
Tom Mcgee bal 29 64 2 13 1 8 .030 .797 .176 .219
Trent Durrington mil 29 163 18 34 1 1 .099 .791 .016 .222
Wilson Delgado nym 29 353 29 73 3 23 .076 .793 .093 .261
A.J. Hinch phi 30 268 32 48 2 10 .107 .821 .055 .230
Andy Barkett det 30 418 42 80 19 30 .091 .809 .145 .283
Anthony Sanders tor 30 229 15 56 5 20 .061 .755 .145 .276
Bobby Smith cws 30 510 48 117 28 39 .086 .771 .170 .272
Bryant Nelson cws 30 565 57 50 22 41 .092 .912 .122 .288
Carlos Mendez bal 30 306 13 30 4 18 .041 .902 .080 .256
Chad Alexander det 30 204 21 36 3 17 .093 .824 .119 .256
Chris Heintz min 30 295 19 40 8 14 .061 .864 .086 .279
Damon Hollins atl 30 360 24 57 20 28 .063 .842 .158 .301
Howie Clark tor 30 259 43 18 6 16 .142 .931 .091 .313
Jeff Guiel tor 30 229 21 63 6 14 .084 .725 .120 .197
Jeff Liefer mil 30 374 51 62 20 26 .120 .834 .147 .283
Jim Rushford phi 30 519 46 54 10 34 .081 .896 .095 .275
Juan Diaz min 30 137 16 43 11 5 .105 .686 .170 .270
Luis Figueroa mil 30 386 25 24 5 14 .061 .938 .052 .272
Luis Lopez atl 30 233 33 27 9 18 .124 .884 .131 .333
Raul Gonzalez cle 30 233 13 19 9 14 .053 .918 .107 .310
Raul Gonzalez nym 30 65 7 9 1 7 .097 .862 .143 .262
Trace Coquillettebos 30 198 24 54 3 13 .108 .727 .111 .249
Warren Morris det 30 399 29 71 8 32 .068 .822 .122 .287
Aaron Holbert cin 31 383 47 66 4 19 .109 .828 .073 .271
Benji Gil det 31 51 4 13 0 4 .073 .745 .105 .176
Brian Simmons min 31 300 19 64 9 12 .060 .787 .089 .224
Charles Gipson tbd 31 299 42 57 2 17 .123 .809 .079 .296
Chris Coste mil 31 264 25 37 2 22 .087 .860 .106 .294
Dusty Wathan cle 31 243 31 30 1 16 .113 .877 .080 .306
Homer Bush nyy 31 235 13 41 2 15 .052 .826 .088 .291
Jacob Cruz cin 31 55 10 10 3 4 .154 .818 .156 .315
Jesse Garcia atl 31 78 5 13 0 2 .060 .833 .031 .218
Joe Depastino atl 31 302 33 52 6 13 .099 .828 .076 .231
Lou Collier phi 31 390 38 82 14 29 .089 .790 .140 .326
Mark Budzkinski phi 31 513 50 103 5 44 .089 .799 .120 .283
Michael Glavine nym 31 206 27 45 8 9 .116 .782 .106 .216
Robert Machado bal 31 126 10 20 3 12 .074 .841 .142 .317
Sandy Martinez cle 31 197 12 44 17 9 .057 .777 .170 .274
Stubby Clapp tor 31 87 18 18 0 10 .171 .793 .145 .287
Todd Betts nyy 31 161 15 31 4 8 .085 .807 .092 .270
Adam Hyzdu bos 32 469 91 106 29 35 .163 .774 .176 .301
Brian Daubach bos 32 338 74 93 21 23 .180 .725 .180 .271
Chad Mottola bal 32 462 31 90 22 22 .063 .805 .118 .265
Greg Norton det 32 185 24 48 4 7 .115 .741 .080 .207
J.P. Roberge phi 32 239 18 42 1 13 .070 .824 .071 .256
Jason Maxwell tbd 32 367 22 55 13 14 .057 .850 .087 .264
Jon Nunnally mil 32 247 41 54 9 10 .142 .781 .098 .216
Mark Little cle 32 245 16 40 11 21 .061 .837 .156 .314
Midre Cummings tbd 32 418 89 107 27 29 .176 .744 .180 .285
Raul Casanova bos 32 75 10 15 1 3 .118 .800 .067 .270
Ryan Jackson atl 32 58 1 15 2 3 .017 .741 .116 .224
Shane Spencer nyy 32 50 9 15 0 4 .153 .700 .114 .240
Shawn Wooten phi 32 226 28 29 4 22 .110 .872 .132 .293
Alex Delgado mil 33 207 7 21 0 10 .033 .899 .054 .223
Chris Clapinski cle 33 375 51 62 11 28 .120 .835 .125 .312
Eric Owens det 33 446 21 50 3 12 .045 .888 .038 .251
Jamie Burke cws 33 136 11 15 2 6 .075 .890 .066 .231
Pedro Swann bal 33 461 49 84 15 33 .096 .818 .127 .271
Sal Fasano nyy 33 240 16 45 10 16 .063 .813 .133 .229
Tom Wilson nym 33 115 25 24 7 10 .179 .791 .187 .322
Dave Nilsson atl 34 55 7 15 1 1 .113 .727 .050 .236
Joe Vitiello det 34 327 33 61 16 19 .092 .813 .132 .328
Mark Smith phi 34 403 51 69 11 30 .112 .829 .123 .281
Marvin Benard tor 34 123 12 21 4 7 .089 .829 .108 .211
Mike Kelly nyy 34 300 39 67 15 13 .115 .777 .120 .253
Ozzie Timmons nym 34 108 13 18 4 6 .107 .833 .111 .274
Clay Bellinger bal 35 219 16 48 8 17 .068 .781 .146 .229
Darren Bragg nyy 35 274 37 45 8 24 .119 .836 .140 .282
Ernie Young cle 35 451 53 104 28 28 .105 .769 .161 .302
Keith Osik tbd 35 83 7 10 1 0 .078 .880 .014 .244
Mike DiFelice det 35 239 15 37 5 14 .059 .845 .094 .270
Scott Sheldon mil 35 115 10 26 5 8 .080 .774 .146 .230
Gerald Williams nym 36 248 12 35 7 13 .046 .859 .094 .305


this is kind of depressing. all these guys that just want to play in the major leagues. most of them could. there's not that much difference. guys who should are jermaine clark, ryan hankins, and bryant nelson. maybe defense holds them back.
Friday, January 21, 2005
 
belief requires risk
peña still believes

that's funny, when i clicked on that link i expected it to be about carlos peña. carlos has, in the past, been considered a prospect, by certain unnamed baseball prospectuses. but he's really not very good, and will not be a starter in the major leagues much longer.


year aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
2001 62 10 17 3 5 .139 .726 .178 .258
2002 399 44 111 17 21 .099 .722 .132 .242
2003 456 59 123 18 27 .115 .730 .135 .248
2004 486 73 146 27 26 .131 .700 .156 .241


the problem is the strikeouts. he turns 27 this year, so he's in his prime. he's just got too far to go. if any of these numbers were a little higher, i'd say he's got a shot, but it's just too unrealistic.

i hate to be a naysayer. we're rootin for ya, carlos!

i guess i didn't really mean that. but i mean to mean it.

and tony peña? of course he still believes; that's his job!

was that mean? am i just mean all the time? it was supposed to be funny. i'm a very pretty lady. man. 8-year-old boy.

what else? clemens is rich. who's gonna win the central? hell if i know. cardinals, i guess, if pujols stays healthy. cubs, if prior and wood stay healthy.

go ahead, ask me. i know everything.

finally, the indians signed casey blake. $5.4 million for 2 years. they say they're gonna play him in the outfield because they got aaron boone at third base. so now they got juan gonzalez, coco crisp, grady sizemore, jody gerut, and casey blake in the outfield. and ryan ludwick, but he doesn't count. whatever, that's cool. these are all guys, at the moment. in fact, the entire team is guys, except for victor martinez. travis hafner. some useful pitching.

blake turns 32 this year. he's not gonna get any better. but he's a usable player at any of the four corners or dh. with all these interchangeable parts, a good manager should be able to keep the team rested and at peak performance all season. eric wedge, is he good? i don't know.

they'll beat the white sox this year. i'm always a year ahead with my predictions.

no crisp sizemore phillips peralta that's a lot of youth that's a lot of candidates for breakout seasons. young teams tend to outperform projections. expectations. what people think. what do you think?
 
i love mail!
more from alec:


"the point is you can look at expected batting average and see how much
a player exceeded that expectation and you can call that speed. unless
it comes from too many line drives. but speed only comes into play on
weak contact."

Hmmm... I guess I'm not totally sold on that last point. Obviously
speed has no role in a home run, and I'll grant that it must make the
MOST difference in singles, but surely it makes a difference in doubles
and triples, too! And heck, I suppose there are in-field home runs too,
but I can't imagine they're very significant statistically.

Not to mention that there must be some kind of correlation between this
"speed factor" and bases stolen, but I guess that's getting overly
complicated for what you're trying to do. Plus it must be a pretty weak
correlation if I had to guess. Hmmm...


right. when i said "speed only comes into play on weak contact," i was talking about as it relates to batting average. because a double is the same as a single as far as batting average is concerned.

but yeah fast guys hit more doubles. and lots more triples. and inside-the-park home runs happen once or twice a season.

as the system is now, those things are included in pow. that's fine, as far as i'm concerned. we could call pow "the ability to hit for extra bases," but it's a lot easier to say "power percentage." and a double hit with speed has just as much predictive value as a double hit with power. so the speed to first thing is really a measure of the ability to get to first beyond that which is suggested by extra-base hits.

getting to your last point, there certainly is a correlation between speed to first and stolen bases. the problem is stolen bases are only regularly attempted by the very fastest players, so they don't help when trying to get a reed on average to above-average players.

i'm taking this spelling of reed to its logical extremes. it's getting pretty ridiculous, isn't it?
Thursday, January 20, 2005
 
technical stuff
this is an exchange between me and alec that i thought you would find interesting. it's about the connection between speed and batting average. you see, a long time ago i found a way to relate con and pow to average. for a while actually the pow formula was expressed so that con*pow was a predictor for average. but i junked that in favor of simplicity. anyway my letter is a response to alec's. i have the nagging feeling that i could be clearer about this, but i often have that feeling.


yes, you can. what you wanna do is separate the weak contact, where
speed matters, from the line drives, where it doesn't. a good general
practice is to use pow*2 as the line drive factor; everything else is
weak contact.

the problem is one season is not a good enough sample size to get a
reed on batting average. it takes several seasons. so you have to
calculate speed over several seasons and then average. it's really not
hard to do. i should write about it.

On Wed, 19 Jan 2005 10:24:54 -0600, Alec Wood wrote:
> while i'm on the topic of slow guys, could you use that predictor as a
> method of determining the speed pf a player? EG, calculate the error
> between predicted average and actual? a sort of "speed factor"...
>
> let's try patterson:
>
> 632 50 168 24 39 .073 .734 .136 .266
> (0.266 - ((0.734/4)+(0.734*0.136/2)) ) / 0.266 = 0.127
>
> and, say, ichiro:
>
> 707 53 63 8 29 .070 .911 .057 .372
> (0.372 - ((0.911/4)+(0.911*0.057/2)) ) / 0.372 = 0.322
>
> how about sosa in '96:
>
> 502 39 134 40 23 .072 .733 .171 .273
> (0.273 - ((0.733/4)+(0.733*0.171/2)) ) / 0.273 = 0.102
>
> Well, just a thought...
>
> -alec


here's how it works: hard-hit balls tend to be about half hits half outs. we're talking about deep drives and deep flies here. balls that end up being doubles and home runs. and outs. some players hit more line drives, thus more singles, thus their batting averages are higher than predicted. but we're getting ahead of ourselves. or not. the thing is, they sacrifice home runs. they could hit more home runs, but don't. so they get a higher batting average instead.

the cool thing about wal con pow is you can look at it and know the player's value. he may have fewer home runs and more batting average, or he may have more home runs and less batting average, but the walconpow's will be the same. then you can look at home run/double ratios to see if he's a fly ball or a line drive hitter. or a groundball hitter.

anyway, half hits half outs. con/4 + con*pow/2. so all of the doubles and home runs are accounted for. how? con*pow/2 is half of them. what about the other half? they're contained in con/4. because con/4 also contains those contacts that are hit hard. half of those hard hits are doubles and home runs, so that's con*pow/4. the other half are outs. number of hard hit outs = number of doubles and home runs, so that's another con*pow/4. con*pow/4 + con*pow/4 + con*pow/2 = con*pow, so we've accounted for all the doubles and home runs.

maybe this can be expressed better as a mathematical derivation:

avg = con/4 + con*pow/2

avg = (con - con*pow + con*pow)/4 + con*pow/2

avg = (con - con*pow)/4 + con*pow/4 + con*pow/2

con*pow/4 expresses the shit i didn't explain this very well. i have the feeling this is not helping.

let's do it this way. there are as many hard hits as there are hard hit outs. hard hits per contact = pow. so hard hit outs per contact = pow. so hard hits + hard hit outs per contact = 2*pow. so hard hits + hard hit outs per at-bat = con*2*pow. what about weak contact? well, the rest is weak contact. so that's con - con*2*pow. we figure a quarter of weakly struck balls end up as hits, the rest outs, so weak hits is (con - con*2*pow)/4, and weak outs = 3*(con - con*2*pow)/4. anyway lets add up all the hits:

weak hits + hard hits = (con - con*2*pow)/4 + con*pow

weak hits + hard hits = con/4 - con*pow/2 + con*pow

weak hits + hard hits = con/4 + con*pow/2

that was a lot better. i have to go grocery shopping. but the point is you can look at expected batting average and see how much a player exceeded that expectation and you can call that speed. unless it comes from too many line drives. but speed only comes into play on weak contact. so you have to look at weak contact, which is con-con*2*pow, to isolate a speed factor. then you can say

batting avg = speed*(con-con*2*pow)/4 + con*pow

voila! really that's speed + handedness. because lefties are closer to first. you could adjust for that. you can always adjust for things.
Wednesday, January 19, 2005
 
the final countdown
now that we've caught up with the news, except for rafael furcal's bargain contract, we can finish the player evaluations we've been doing.

this last list is the guys that didn't get on any of the position lists, either because they're dh's or because doug doesn't update his positions very well. nothing against doug; he provides a valuable service.

i also red this personal interest story. i'm going through a phase now where i link everything i reed.

reed red reed red reed red reed red.


Player aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
huff,aubrey 605 62 74 29 29 .093 .878 .109 .297


power was a little down this year, but it'll come back. definitely a strong contributor.


ortiz,david 590 79 133 41 50 .118 .775 .199 .301


yes. difference maker.


durazo,erubiel 513 65 104 22 36 .112 .797 .142 .321


strong contributor. impressive work in a tough park.


martinez,edgar 489 60 107 12 23 .109 .781 .092 .263


tough last year with injuries and decline. thanks for a great career, edgar.


hafner,travis 488 85 111 28 44 .148 .773 .191 .311


these are basically the same numbers as ortiz, but less playing time. so he's a strong contributor.


young,dmitri 393 39 71 18 25 .090 .819 .134 .272


dmitri young dmitri young had a couple good years in there. now he's a guy.


phelps,josh 372 29 93 17 21 .072 .750 .136 .251


not likely to develop enough skill to be more than a guy.

that bp article i linked actually has a lot of stuff i want to comment on. like the idea that andy marte is ready for the majors (he's not). or the idea that jonny gomes can hit. if the choice is between jonny gomes and joey gathright, it's not a tough one. it's joey gathright.

but they also said some good things. brian mccann looks like a good prospect. and guillermo quiroz will hit in the majors.


surhoff,b.j. 344 31 46 8 13 .083 .866 .070 .309


still a guy. bj's ability to make contact has made him usable for a long time.


pena,wily_mo 336 28 108 26 11 .077 .679 .162 .259


wily mo finally broke through! that's a pile of home runs. expect the contact to go up. he's young. up-and-comer.


garciaparra,nom 323 29 30 9 24 .082 .907 .113 .308


yeah nomar you gotta rate him at least a strong contributor. i mean look at that hitting. the man can hit. even when he is battling injuries all season. i hope he's healthy next year because he has been underrated his whole career. even though he's been highly rated. but that's another article.


sierra,ruben 313 25 55 17 13 .074 .824 .116 .244


guy.


griffey,ken 302 46 67 20 18 .132 .778 .162 .253


ken griffey can still hit the ball hard, but he's just a guy.


hairston,jerry 291 37 29 2 20 .113 .900 .084 .303


that's good contact. must develop power to be more than a guy.


morneau,justin 282 30 54 19 17 .096 .809 .158 .271


up-and-comer.


lecroy,matthew 266 20 60 9 14 .070 .774 .112 .269
fullmer,brad 260 30 30 11 20 .103 .885 .135 .233


good conpow, but small sample size.


walker,larry 259 57 57 17 20 .180 .780 .183 .298
thomas,frank 241 70 57 18 16 .225 .763 .185 .271


walker and thomas are obviously strong contributors if they get full playing time. it'll be interesting to see what they do in 2005.


salmon,tim 190 16 41 2 7 .078 .784 .060 .253


he's finally reached the cliff.


pickering,calvi 124 18 42 7 9 .127 .661 .195 .246


calvin pickering strikes out too much.

yes now we're done. now we can do ranking lists for next year. and all-star teams. and all that fun stuff. wake the wife.
 
news
first of all, go seminoles!

sorry about that. it won't happen again. it's baseball from now on. but have you noticed how much people have been saying difference maker lately? i've seen it on the news, heard it in games, red it on the internet.

yes it's all cause of me. don't rain on my parade! what happened today?

nothing.

ugh. ok, i'll admit it. i'm a braves fan. yes, yes, we hate those who succeed. i can't see anything valuable about signing brian jordan. let's look at his career:


year aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
1992 193 11 48 5 13 .054 .751 .124 .207
1993 226 16 35 10 16 .066 .845 .136 .309
1994 180 17 40 5 10 .086 .778 .107 .258
1995 492 33 79 22 24 .063 .839 .111 .296
1996 522 36 84 17 37 .065 .839 .123 .310
1997 145 16 21 0 5 .099 .855 .040 .234
1998 568 49 66 25 41 .079 .884 .131 .316
1999 585 60 81 23 32 .093 .862 .109 .283
2000 494 43 80 17 26 .080 .838 .104 .264
2001 568 37 88 25 35 .061 .845 .125 .295
2002 475 40 86 18 30 .078 .819 .123 .285
2003 226 27 30 6 9 .107 .867 .077 .299
2004 216 17 35 5 14 .073 .838 .105 .222


i take it back. brian jordan has had a career full of hitting for contact and power. he *can* be a useful player. brian, i'm sorry for all the shit i talked about you all these years.

the braves are still gonna win. how are they gonna win? they got andruw jones. and marcus giles. and rafael furcal. and johnny estrada. they just keep on doing what they do, cause what they do, they do well.

don't forget about tim hudson. and chipper jones. the hitter. but what's the constant in all of this? cox, schuerholz, and mazzone.

wow this started off as a go noles article and ended up as a go braves article!

i'll do your team next.
 
mail
from alec:


Just saw the "intuitive" explanation of walconpow. good. what about a
more technical explanation? why, exactly, is "con/4 + con*pow/2 a
good batting average predictor for slow guys"? and how do you come up
with your "hitters vs. pitchers" numbers? etc.


the technical explanation is proving to be more involved than i thought. basically, it's contained in the history of this blog, more towards the beginning when i was running regressions.

yeah. so that's where the batting average predictor came from. course, in the early days, i was using all kinds of wacky formulas (formulae?) for pow. so it may be hard to follow what's going on. but if you reed from the beginning, you'll see where the changes happen.

hitters v. pitchers. pick a percentage. wal, for example. let's say the hitter's wal is h, the pitcher's wal is p, and the league average wal is a. the formula is:

h v. p = (h*p/a)/(h*p/a + (1-h)*(1-p)/(1-a))

it's a mathematically determined formula, good for any percentage stat. bill james had some mathematician work it out for him. any statistician or probability theorist could tell it to you.
 
arbitrary contracts
dotel gets $4.75 million. cheap at twice the price.

gagne gets $19 million for two years. oh, i guess twice the price would be gagne's salary. what's brad lidge making?

beckett's getting $2.4 million. well at least it's more than santana made last year. beckett could easily win the cy. johnson, lidge, and sheets were the only acceptable choices this time.

bj ryan, who struck out 122, gets $2.8 million.

corey patterson gets $2.8 million. ryan is way more valuable:


Player aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
patterson,corey 632 50 168 24 39 .073 .734 .136 .266


he's a soriano/sosa.

devil rays get paid too. if jorge sosa ever gets his walks down, he'll be somebody.

mark bellhorn has found a home. he's getting $2.7 million.

marcus giles asks for $2.7 million. that's a super-bargain. he made $430,000 last year.

barrett, farnsworth, and patterson sign. farnsworth ain't even making $2 million. barrett is a find. i don't know why oakland didn't keep him. they made a number of bad offseason moves last year.

sean burroughs, 24, signs contract.

alex cora gets $2.7 million for 2 years. that's a lot of second-basemen.

phillies signed contracts.

pirates signed contracts.

young pitchers are interesting.

ron villone has money.

pedro feliz.

arroyo gets $1.85 million.

marquis gets $3 million. this is where major league baseball saves its money.

there's more check it out if you want to.
 
i'm finishing my coffee
arbitration signings are always the interesting ones. that sentence is meaningless. the best players are in arbitration because arbitration is the 4th--6th years of a major-league career. these players are always a bargain.

news i read today:

santana asks for $6.8 million.

see what i mean about bargains? randy johnson makes $16 million; clemens asked for $22 million.

last year santana asked for $2.45 million and got $1.6 million.

look at the first two paragraphs of the article:


AL Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana asked the Minnesota Twins for a raise to $6.8 million in salary arbitration on Tuesday and was offered $5 million.

Santana went 20-6 with a league-leading 2.61 ERA and 265 strikeouts, helping the Twins win their third straight AL Central title. After the All-Star break, Santana went 13-0 with a 1.21 ERA in 15 starts.


that is not $5 million dollar talent. that's $15 million dollar talent. after the all-star break, santana went 13-0 with a 1.21 era in 15 starts. he asked for $6.8 million. he didn't even get $2.4 million last year.

reed on. carlos silva is being offered more than santana made last year. kyle lohse too.

has the world gone crazy?
Tuesday, January 18, 2005
 
i don't think this guy likes me
i was surfing around and i found this response to an article i wrote a couple days ago.

the interesting part of the article is a discussion of the definition of "sabermetrics". he puts forward bill james' defintion: "the search for objective knowledge about baseball". he appears to be accusing me of using a different definition.

sully, you're using a different definition yourself, one paragraph before, when you say you're trying to outline the basic tenets. the basic tenets of what? the search for objective baseball knowledge? no, the basic tenets of a set of ideas that have come to be associated with the term "sabermetrics".

come on, let's be friends.
 
what can we say about cesar izturis
a defensive specialist, cesar finally made himself useful with the bat:


year aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
2001 134 2 15 2 8 .015 .888 .084 .269
2002 444 14 39 1 26 .031 .912 .067 .232
2003 561 25 70 1 27 .043 .875 .057 .251
2004 673 43 70 4 41 .060 .896 .075 .288


and we can see it in the numbers. most obviously in batting average. but what is batting average a result of? contact and power. he's always made contact, but look at that doubles increase. also he started taking walks. here and there.

dodger stadium is a tough place to hit. but cesar izturis is the right kind of hitter for it. the key is contact hitting, and doubles power, like paul loduca. or ozzie smith.
 
yesterday
keeping up with the news . . .

soriano gets $7.5 million

he's not worth it, but the rangers can't really afford to admit it.


year aab w k hr 23 wal con pow
1999 8 0 3 1 0 .000 .625 .200
2000 50 1 15 2 3 .020 .700 .143
2001 579 32 125 18 37 .052 .784 .121
2002 703 37 157 39 53 .050 .777 .168
2003 684 50 130 38 41 .068 .810 .143
2004 615 43 121 28 36 .065 .803 .130


he was born in 1976, but we thought he was born in 1978. anyway so he's peaked. he peaked in 2002--2003. unless he's the next sammy sosa:


year aab w k hr 23 wal con pow
1989 185 13 47 4 8 .066 .746 .087
1990 538 39 150 15 36 .068 .721 .131
1991 317 16 98 10 11 .048 .691 .096
1992 264 23 63 8 9 .080 .761 .085
1993 599 42 135 33 30 .066 .775 .136
1994 430 27 92 25 23 .059 .786 .142
1995 566 63 134 36 20 .100 .763 .130
1996 502 39 134 40 23 .072 .733 .171
1997 647 47 174 36 35 .068 .731 .150
1998 648 74 171 66 20 .102 .736 .180
1999 631 81 171 63 26 .114 .729 .193
2000 612 93 168 50 39 .132 .725 .200
2001 589 122 153 64 39 .172 .740 .236
2002 560 106 144 49 21 .159 .743 .168
2003 522 67 143 40 22 .114 .726 .164
2004 481 58 133 35 21 .108 .723 .161


ok how to make sense of this data. well look at how similar these numbers are. contact percentages in the high .700's . . . low walk percentages, good power percentages. sammy was born in 1968, so he's 8 years older than alfonso (actually 7 years 2 months, but we're close enough).

so sammy's comparable years to alfonso's 2001--2004 would be 1993--96.

soriano:


2001 579 32 125 18 37 .052 .784 .121
2002 703 37 157 39 53 .050 .777 .168
2003 684 50 130 38 41 .068 .810 .143
2004 615 43 121 28 36 .065 .803 .130


batting averages didn't post they are .268 .300 .290 .280.


1993 599 42 135 33 30 .066 .775 .136
1994 430 27 92 25 23 .059 .786 .142
1995 566 63 134 36 20 .100 .763 .130
1996 502 39 134 40 23 .072 .733 .171


batting averages are .261 .300 .268 .273.

wow so first off those batting averages are very similar. but everything is similar look at those percentages. walk percentages are low, contact percentages are below average, and power is high. this is the profile of a free swinger with power. but look at what sammy did in 1995. he started to figure out how to take a walk. it didn't stick, maybe because he had bad luck with hits that year, but in 1998 it came back. and we all know what happened in 1998.

so what are we saying? is alfonso soriano the next sammy sosa? well he would like to be, but sosa is the exception, not the rule. most players never have the realization sammy had. most players don't all of a sudden develop patience. but power hitters are more likely than non-power hitters. so maybe it will happen.

until it does, all we know is that alfonso soriano has been one of the most overrated players of our generation. i was gonna say one of the most overrated players of all time. or the most overrated player of his time. both may be correct, but i'll play it safe. good luck, alfonso!
Sunday, January 16, 2005
 
erubiel durazo
$4.7 million. is he worth it? sure. he's made great strides in contact percentage, despite leaving the relative altitude of arizona for the near-sea-level coliseum.


year aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
1999 158 27 43 11 6 .146 .728 .148 .329
2000 198 35 43 8 11 .150 .783 .123 .265
2001 177 30 49 12 11 .145 .723 .180 .269
2002 225 51 60 16 14 .185 .733 .182 .261
2003 543 102 105 21 29 .158 .807 .114 .259
2004 513 65 104 22 36 .112 .797 .142 .321


somehow his patience dropped. but his power went up. maybe he can put it all together. maybe he's one of those guys that keeps improving. because it's rare for contact to rise that late in a career. we shall see.
Friday, January 14, 2005
 
you need more stuff
rob again:


Here are the top 10 projected starting pitchers in my Scoresheet league.
Players with ** next too their name are on my team.


WAL CON POW LAST FIRST
0.074 0.663 0.121 MARTINEZ PEDRO**
0.070 0.686 0.124 JOHNSON RANDY
0.085 0.706 0.113 SANTANA JOHAN
0.050 0.748 0.107 SCHILLING CURT
0.053 0.790 0.099 MUSSINA MIKE
0.104 0.762 0.100 HARDEN RICH**
0.069 0.785 0.115 VAZQUEZ JAVIER
0.072 0.797 0.107 MILLWOOD KEVIN
0.078 0.803 0.100 HUDSON TIM**
0.069 0.798 0.099 PETTITTE ANDY


Rob


projected using what method? is your league al-only or both? cause tim hudson's a national leaguer.

how is the ranking done?

this is interesting because it shows just how good some of these guys are. look at curt schilling's walk percentage, for example. also it shows how unlucky javier vazquez was.

where do you get your data because i've been having trouble getting doubles and triples allowed for pitchers. i've been using dougstats.com
 
letters
i love good data. here's some stuff from my buddy rob sitler:


The league average WAL, CON and POW comes out to .095, .816 and .117
Here are the only AL pitchers that project to have at least a league average or
below CON, and a league average or below POW.
These guys make hitters swing and miss, and make them hit it soft when they do make contact.

 

CON POW LAST FIRST
0.772 0.098 RIVERA MARIANO
0.790 0.099 MUSSINA MIKE
0.784 0.100 RINCON RICARDO
0.758 0.100 SHERRILL GEORGE
0.762 0.100 HARDEN RICH
0.759 0.102 BALFOUR GRANT
0.729 0.103 GORDON FLASH
0.759 0.103 RHODES ARTHUR
0.723 0.103 CRAIN JESSE
0.802 0.104 COLON BARTOLO
0.813 0.104 PINEIRO JOEL
0.784 0.105 GUARDADO EDDIE
0.790 0.105 SABATHIA C.C.
0.778 0.105 LIGTENBERG KERRY
0.811 0.106 STANTON MIKE
0.724 0.106 URBINA UGUETH
0.675 0.107 BETANCOURT RAFAEL
0.748 0.107 SCHILLING CURT
0.797 0.107 MILLWOOD KEVIN
0.789 0.108 ZITO BARRY
0.759 0.109 STREET HUSTON
0.738 0.110 DONNELLY BRENDAN
0.810 0.110 MAHAY RON
0.751 0.110 CORDERO FRANCISCO
0.812 0.111 MECHE GIL
0.801 0.111 KARSAY STEVE
0.781 0.111 POLITTE CLIFF
0.674 0.111 RYAN B.J.
0.813 0.111 WANG CHIEN-MING
0.780 0.112 MAINE JOHN
0.810 0.113 DE PAULA JORGE
0.800 0.113 RODNEY FERNANDO
0.798 0.113 SOSA JORGE
0.806 0.113 GARCIA FREDDY
0.706 0.113 SANTANA JOHAN
0.762 0.113 MILLER WADE
0.793 0.114 ROMERO J.C.
0.814 0.114 PARRISH JOHN
0.762 0.114 RILEY MATT
0.738 0.114 PERCIVAL TROY
0.797 0.115 COLOME JESUS
0.804 0.115 CHEN BRUCE
0.786 0.115 VIZCAINO LUIS
0.765 0.115 CALERO KIKO
0.781 0.116 ESCOBAR KELVIM
0.734 0.116 SAUERBECK SCOTT
0.787 0.116 EMBREE ALAN
0.812 0.116 PRINZ BRET
0.798 0.116 SHIELDS SCOT
0.784 0.117 PERKINS VINCE



who the hell is vince perkins? i didn't realize pow was up that much. i must confess i didn't check the 2004 league averages. i wonder if the nl number was as high.

i gotta run. we'll talk later.
 
check this out!
there's a course being offered by sports management worldwide that teaches you how to be a general manager! rob neyer is one of the instructors! it sounds like a great opportunity.

i found the link, as usual, on baseball musings. it was an ad. there's stuff everywhere.
 
changeup
i don't know how he does it, but david pinto keeps track of everything.

here's an article about learning to throw a changeup that he links.
 
the sabermetric party line
the chorus is growing. soon the sabermetric party line will be accepted by the masses.

for an example of the sabermetric party line, click here. i found the link on baseball musings.

did you reed the article? that used to be me. i accepted and espoused all the principles of sabermetrics. i thought i was smarter than general managers. i thought i was open-minded.

hopefully the writer of the article really is open-minded. it doesn't much sound like it though:


I refuse to pick on such low hanging fruit but if you subscribe to and understand sabermetric principals to any degree whatsoever, go check out the debate I had yesterday over there to gain a new appreciation of just how far ahead of the average fan you are in your understanding of the game.


if you reed the article you realize that its main flaw is that the phrase "sabermetric principles" is used as a synonym for "truth":


And if you have a deeper grasp of Sabermetric principles than I do (countless baseball fans do) and I stray somewhere, please point that out to me. I don’t ever want to stop learning.


while it's a nice sentiment, the implicit assumption in this line is that the only way to better understand baseball is to learn more sabermetrics. i was there once. i got to the point where i fully understood sabermetrics. then i realized it was horribly flawed.


- Extensive research has shown that a team’s win-loss record correlates quite closely to its differential between runs scored and runs given up.
- Extensive research has also shown that certain offensive events can accurately predict the amount of runs a team has scored and conversely, the prevention of such offensive events can accurately predict how effectively a team prevents runs.
- Given this, you can apply these same formulas to individuals to predict how well they, individually, create runs.
- Because the run prevention side is truly a team effort, a combination if pitching and defense, boiling it down to individuals is a bit more complex.


point 3 does not follow from points 1 and 2, but i'm being nitpicky. i basically agree with all these statements. most sabermetricians then go on to say that since you can measure a player's runs created, and you can measure a team's run/win correlation, you can thereby measure a player's wins created. it's an attractive idea, but it's not accurate. we'd like to think it's logical, but it isn't.

the problem is all runs are not created equal. runs scored in close games produce more wins than runs scored in blowouts. sabermetric party line says it all evens out. it doesn't all even out. there are certain skills that correlate to success in close games. the most important are contact hitting, defense, and baserunning.

power hitting tends to create the most runs. but power hitting is trumped by power pitching. this is because most power hitters are susceptible to the strikeout.

contact hitters are not as susceptible to the strikeout, and therefore suffer less of a drop against power pitchers.

by power pitchers we mean strikeout pitchers. now there is a correlation between strikeout pitchers and close games. the best pitchers have high strikeout rates. the best pitchers keep the runs down. therefore, it follows that contact hitters are more successful in close games. more success in close games means more wins.

check it out sometime. look at a team's record in close games. you'll find that teams that do well in this area tend to have contact hitting, pitching, and defense. sabermetricians view this stat as "random".

defense and baserunning are valuable in close games because they maintain the same run value while being in a lower-run environment. so they are more likely to produce wins. defense never takes a day off. power hitting does.

yes a home run is more valuable in a close game than an out. i'm talking about a home run by the offense versus an out by the defense. but home runs are way less common in close games. outs are not.

sabermetricians have tried to simplify things by making assumptions. some of those assumptions are wrong. i hope this article has helped to make that clear. to restate: you cannot look just at runs created when you compare players. you must take into account the *type* of player.


Just equipping yourself with that much knowledge gets you a long way to understanding the game. It’s just so damn logical that I cannot believe how venomous some become when confronted with it. Now I am no mathematician and consider myself more of a Sabermetrics salesman than any sort of pioneer but this all makes sense to me and I can grasp it. You won’t find me blazing any new trails in the field but you can bet I will be analyzing the game itself through the application of what I have learned in the last couple of years.


it's funny, i *am* a mathematician.
Thursday, January 13, 2005
 
you're wrong
does anybody still think billy beane is looking for on-base percentage?

people definitely think jp ricciardi is. david pinto, for example. but isn't that kind of funny, considering that ricciardi learned from beane?

sabermetricians like to think that general managers are stupid. but isn't that a little presumptuous? these guys get paid. i mean get paid. would they really get paid like that if they were stupid? is everyone stupid? is that your argument? i see.

i'll get around to what i'm talking about in a second. the first point is it's time to admit that moneyball was based on a misunderstanding of baseball.

the second point: contrary to popular belief, there are not a bunch of first basemen sitting around languishing in the minors who can outhit shea hillenbrand. pinto thinks there are. it's funny to me because i anticipated this argument in my first base article a couple days ago. i used tino martinez instead of shea hillenbrand, but i was using him as a type. anyway it's not impressive that i anticipated the argument because it's standard sabermetrician party line. standard, but wrong.

to restate my point: shea hillenbrand has value as a hitter because he can hit good pitching. hitting good pitching is more valuable than hitting bad pitching because good pitchers produce low-run environments. runs created in low-run environments produce more wins than runs created in high-run environments. wins are important.

this was going to be a point-by-point dismantling of pinto's argument, but as usual it was a ramble. i only mention this because i wanted to find a way to restate oba/slugger guys as high-strikeout guys. it's a war of ideas. the weapons are words.
 
out in left field
left field. that's where he plays. the good one. but he's far down the list because it's ordered by at-bats. adjusted at-bats. aab's.

these columns are imperfectly spaced but fuck it let's go.


Player aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
suzuki,ichiro 707 53 63 8 29 .070 .911 .057 .372


oh, that was exciting. wasn't it? still, he didn't get the attention he deserved, what with being on a losing team and not being seriously considered for mvp i guess they figured he got one that's what he gets that's what the woman at harold's chicken said when we asked why the wings were so small she said "that's what you get!" she repeated it a number of times.

anyway, for the record, ichiro suzuki in 2004 had more hits than anyone else ever.


pierre,juan 680 53 35 3 34 .072 .949 .057 .326


i wanna say more about ichiro suzuki. first of all, he's so fuckin stylish. but the other thing is he's an innovator. he has a deeper understanding of hitting than anyone else, except that bonds guy. i'm not gonna say one knows more than the other. they're very creative, and very different. that's like who's better, miles or coltrane? ok, miles is, but one's a saxophonist and one's a trumpetist. one's a left fielder and one's a right fielder.

do i make sense? sometimes.

there are two juan pierre is one ichiro is the other. why isn't juan better than ichiro? he's got better wal better con same pow. it's because ichiro is the master artist. he's got so many swings. he starts running before he makes contact. he hits the ball hard when he wants to. he more than anyone else understands the differences in pitchers that we see with the wal con pow system. if it's a strikeout pitcher, he'll slap and run. if it's a control pitcher, he'll smack it. maybe over the wall. he uses different techniques against different pitchers. so it averages out to look not as good. but you can't argue with the results: 262 hits. he also takes the defense into account.

also ichiro has the ability to place the ball which very few hitters have.

ichiro's a difference maker juan pierre's a difference maker ichiro's number two. barry's number one.


podsednik,scott 641 65 105 12 34 .092 .836 .086 .244


rookie of the year candidate but that was luck. turns out he's in his physical prime and he doesn't hit the ball hard enough. he's a guy.

maybe he could reinvent himself as a slap-and-run.


biggio,craig 636 55 94 24 47 .080 .852 .131 .281


craig biggio can play. they put him at catcher and he played catcher. they switched him to second base and he played second base. they switched him to center field and he played center field. then they switched him to left. he's still a strong contributor. and he'll get to 3,000.


finley,steve 635 62 82 36 29 .089 .871 .118 .271


another strong contributor. plays good defense, makes good contact, 36 home runs.


winn,randy 633 61 98 14 40 .088 .845 .101 .286


randy winn had a lot of hits as a devil ray and then played center field for seattle. he's a guy.

if you're knowledgeable you'll point out that it wasn't til his second year as a mariner that he played center field. or if you pay attention to details.


crawford,carl 632 36 81 11 45 .054 .872 .102 .296


carl crawford is good in low-run situations. he gets on base against strikeout pitchers, and steals second. he's 23. he's a strong contributor.


patterson,corey 632 50 168 24 39 .073 .734 .136 .266


isn't corey cute he runs real fast and he hits the home runs! too bad he ain't got skills. he's a guy.


damon,johnny 624 78 71 20 41 .111 .886 .110 .304


great defense. great leadoff hitter. walks, hits for contact, hits for power. difference maker.


jenkins,geoff 623 58 152 27 42 .085 .756 .146 .264


well he hits the ball hard but he misses it too much. guy.


guerrero,vladim 620 60 74 39 41 .088 .881 .147 .337


mvp. why not. he was gonna get one eventually. i just hope that wasn't sheff's last chance. cause he shoulda got one.

i just had the thought that the mvp is kinda like the oscars. anyway obviously anyone that gets an mvp is a difference maker.


giles,brian 618 93 80 23 40 .131 .871 .117 .284


yes yes yes great contact great patience good power difficult park to hit in if he were still in center he'd be a difference maker but he's not he's a strong contributor. maybe i'm being hard on him. suck me.


cabrera,miguel 611 74 148 33 32 .108 .758 .140 .294


now i'm gonna turn around and call this kid with the .758 con a difference maker? he's 21 and he's got superstar written all over him. that con'll come up. sit back and enjoy the show.


kotsay,mark 611 57 70 15 40 .085 .885 .102 .314


that kind of contact with that kind of power in oakland coliseum? add that to his defense and he's a strong contributor.


beltran,carlos 609 97 100 38 44 .137 .836 .161 .266


obviously someone who gets $119 million dollars is a difference maker. that average is lower than it should be. he had bad hit luck.


alou,moises 607 68 80 39 39 .101 .868 .148 .293


yes that kind of contact with that kind of power is a strong contributor.


pujols,albert 601 90 52 46 53 .130 .913 .180 .331


umm . . . difference maker. even if he doesn't play outfield anyomore. i mean, who cares where he plays. talk about contact and power. sheesh.


lee,carlos 597 61 86 31 37 .093 .856 .133 .305


yes once again we see contact and power we see a strong contributor. carlos has quietly put it together on the south side of chicago.


lawton,matt 595 84 84 20 25 .124 .859 .088 .277


guy.


matsui,hideki 589 91 103 31 36 .134 .825 .138 .298


guy.


abreu,bobby 581 132 116 30 48 .185 .800 .168 .301


difference maker. best hitter on his team.


sheffield,gary 581 103 83 36 31 .151 .857 .135 .290


difference maker. it's hard to walk that much when you make that much contact. he also has power.


figgins,chone 579 49 94 5 39 .078 .838 .091 .296


guy. turned out to be handy, though, that he could play third base and center field.


ford,lew 576 80 75 15 35 .122 .870 .100 .299


great patience/contact combo. strong contributor.


wilkerson,brad 575 110 152 32 41 .161 .736 .173 .255


he don't make contact, but he gets on base. strong contributor.


byrnes,eric 574 58 111 20 42 .092 .807 .134 .283


eric byrnes has been a very useful player for the a's the last couple years. he's a guy.


ramirez,manny 574 88 124 43 44 .133 .784 .193 .310


umm, yes. difference maker.


jones,andruw 572 74 147 29 38 .115 .743 .158 .260


the best fielder in history, and he has paitence and power. obviously a difference maker.


dunn,adam 568 112 195 46 34 .165 .657 .214 .266


the single-season strikeout leader. it's nice to hit 46 home runs, but i just don't think good pitchers are afraid of him. i have to rate him a strong contributor. it's close. the way i see it, he's not as good as jim thome, who is a borderline difference maker.


guillen,jose 568 52 92 27 31 .084 .838 .122 .294


nice to see jose made it after all the trials over the years. he's a guy.


grissom,marquis 566 38 83 22 28 .063 .853 .104 .279


borderline guy/strong contributor.


wilson,craig 564 78 169 29 40 .121 .700 .175 .264


guy. too many strikeouts.


williams,bernie 563 87 96 22 30 .134 .829 .111 .262


it had to happen eventually. bernie's just a guy. he's had some great years, though.


jones,jacque 556 49 117 24 23 .081 .790 .107 .254


guy.


cruz,jose 553 78 117 21 33 .124 .788 .124 .242


guy.


redman,tike 551 25 52 8 23 .043 .906 .062 .280


guy.


berkman,lance 550 137 101 30 43 .199 .816 .163 .316


difference maker.


burnitz,jeromy 543 63 124 37 34 .104 .772 .169 .283
bautista,danny 542 39 66 11 28 .067 .878 .082 .286
johnson,reed 539 40 98 10 27 .069 .818 .084 .270
dye,jermaine 537 53 128 23 33 .090 .762 .137 .265


guys.


wells,vernon 537 53 83 23 36 .090 .845 .130 .272


he was a difference maker in 2003, but a strong contributor in 2004. no, he plays center field. he's a difference maker.


hidalgo,richard 529 49 129 25 29 .085 .756 .135 .239


hidalgo's been overrated for a long time. he's a guy.


conine,jeff 527 50 78 14 36 .087 .852 .111 .280


guy. useful against good pitching.


baldelli,rocco 524 38 88 16 30 .068 .832 .106 .280


rocco. he's so young. he's gonna go far. at least a strong contributor.


hunter,torii 522 46 101 23 37 .081 .807 .143 .271


they pay him like a strong contributor, but it's a terrible contract. he's a guy.


drew,j.d. 521 123 116 31 36 .191 .777 .165 .305


difference maker.


bradley,milton 517 77 123 19 24 .130 .762 .109 .267


strong contributor. i give a little extra to the young guys.


edmonds,jim 506 105 150 42 41 .172 .704 .233 .301


difference maker. overrated by sabermetricians due to patience, power, and strikeouts. they overrate patience and power and ignore strikeouts.


freel,ryan 505 79 88 3 29 .135 .826 .077 .277
chavez,endy 504 31 40 5 26 .058 .921 .067 .277
wigginton,ty 497 46 82 17 32 .085 .835 .118 .261
cameron,mike 496 65 143 30 31 .116 .712 .173 .231


guys.


crisp,coco 493 36 69 15 26 .068 .860 .097 .297


up-and-comer. he's at the age where power usually develops. he's got the contact.


rowand,aaron 489 40 91 24 40 .076 .814 .161 .310


aaron rowand had a super power spike this year. he'd be a strong contributor if he'd played more, instead of a guy.


encarnacion,jua 486 45 86 16 32 .085 .823 .120 .236
ibanez,raul 485 39 72 16 32 .074 .852 .116 .304


guys.


gerut,jody 484 61 59 11 36 .112 .878 .111 .252


jody gerut was an early discovery of mine, so i have a special fondness for him. but those are great numbers. patience, contact, and power all well above average. it's obvious he was hit-unlucky.


bigbie,larry 482 46 113 15 24 .087 .766 .106 .280
sosa,sammy 481 58 133 35 21 .108 .723 .161 .253
tucker,michael 469 72 106 13 27 .133 .774 .110 .256
payton,jay 462 47 56 8 21 .092 .879 .071 .260
burrell,pat 454 80 130 24 17 .150 .714 .127 .257
higginson,bobby 452 77 84 12 26 .146 .814 .103 .246
white,rondell 451 47 77 19 23 .094 .829 .112 .270
monroe,craig 450 31 79 18 30 .064 .824 .129 .293
sanders,reggie 449 37 118 22 30 .076 .737 .157 .260
anderson,garret 445 30 75 14 21 .063 .831 .095 .301


guys.


mench,kevin 442 39 63 26 33 .081 .857 .156 .279


this is a great contact/power combo. i gotta rate him a strong contributor. kevin mench doesn't get the respect he deserves.


stairs,matt 442 54 92 18 24 .109 .792 .120 .267


defied expectations his whole career. you'd think he woulda made it easier for future hamsters, but see kevin mench, above. guy.


rios,alexis 426 33 84 1 31 .072 .803 .094 .286


this kid's gonna go far. serious up-and-comer.


bay,jason 416 51 129 26 28 .109 .690 .188 .282


what was he, rookie of the year or something? why do they persist in giving roy awards to people who aren't gonna make it?


harris,willie 412 52 79 2 17 .112 .808 .057 .262
klesko,ryan 405 74 67 9 34 .154 .835 .127 .291
holliday,matt 401 36 86 14 34 .082 .786 .152 .290
floyd,cliff 399 57 103 18 26 .125 .742 .149 .260
sledge,terrmel 399 41 66 15 26 .093 .835 .123 .269


guys.


rivera,juan 391 35 45 12 25 .082 .885 .107 .307


juan rivera had a slow start but he showed his skills. up-and-comer.


gonzalez,luis 381 70 58 17 33 .155 .848 .155 .259


those are retarded percentages. except for batting average, which means it's luck. strong contributor, but he'll be a difference maker again in 2005.


stewart,shannon 381 48 44 11 19 .112 .885 .089 .304


guy.


bonds,barry 376 241 41 45 30 .391 .891 .224 .362


god.


nix,laynce 374 25 113 14 24 .063 .698 .146 .248


guy.


dejesus,david 363 42 53 7 18 .104 .854 .081 .287


up-and-comer.


clark,brady 356 62 48 7 19 .148 .865 .084 .280
gibbons,jay 349 30 64 10 15 .079 .817 .088 .246
byrd,marlon 347 29 68 5 15 .077 .804 .072 .228


guys.


cuddyer,michael 340 40 74 12 23 .105 .782 .132 .263


definite up-and-comer qualities. possibilities for improvement in all areas.

the rest are guys.


dellucci,david 334 52 88 17 14 .135 .737 .126 .242
sanchez,alex 333 7 50 2 12 .021 .850 .049 .322
matos,luis 332 23 60 6 18 .065 .819 .088 .224
roberts,dave 325 43 48 4 21 .117 .852 .090 .254


slap-and-run! useful against strikeout pitchers.


michaels,jason 302 44 80 10 12 .127 .735 .099 .274
ward,daryle 296 25 45 15 19 .078 .848 .135 .249
perez,timo 295 17 29 5 12 .054 .902 .064 .246
long,terrence 293 20 51 3 23 .064 .826 .107 .295
kapler,gabe 292 16 49 6 15 .052 .832 .086 .272
werth,jayson 291 34 85 16 14 .105 .708 .146 .262
davanon,jeff 290 46 54 7 15 .137 .814 .093 .277
nunez,abraham 286 34 69 6 11 .106 .759 .078 .214
everett,carl 284 26 45 7 18 .084 .842 .105 .260
matthews,gary_j 283 34 64 11 18 .107 .774 .132 .275
lofton,kenny 280 32 27 3 17 .103 .904 .079 .275
valent,eric 271 29 61 13 17 .097 .775 .143 .267
mohr,dustan 266 54 64 7 21 .169 .759 .139 .274
garcia,karim 261 14 50 10 9 .051 .808 .090 .229
marrero,eli 254 24 50 10 19 .086 .803 .142 .320
grieve,ben 253 41 70 8 17 .139 .723 .137 .260
catalanotto,fra 252 21 33 1 20 .077 .869 .096 .293
kielty,bobby 239 38 47 7 15 .137 .803 .115 .214
gload,ross 237 22 37 7 16 .085 .844 .115 .321
thomas,charles 236 30 45 7 12 .113 .809 .099 .288


i go back-and-forth on whether this guy's an up-and-comer. he had no trouble adjusting to the majors, and he's young, so there's a real possibility he'll improve. how much? billy beane got some good stuff for tim hudson.


terrero,luis 229 25 78 4 14 .098 .659 .119 .245
fick,robert 228 25 36 6 7 .099 .842 .068 .199
kearns,austin 217 29 71 9 12 .118 .673 .144 .230


will he get it back? we shall see.


jordan,brian 216 17 35 5 14 .073 .838 .105 .222
lankford,ray 204 31 55 6 15 .132 .730 .141 .255
ordonez,magglio 203 19 22 9 10 .086 .892 .105 .292
wilson,preston 202 20 49 6 11 .090 .757 .111 .248
borchard,joe 201 20 57 9 5 .090 .716 .097 .174
cedeno,roger 201 19 41 3 11 .086 .796 .088 .265
brown,dee 196 12 50 4 7 .058 .745 .075 .251
macias,jose 195 7 38 3 9 .035 .805 .076 .268
spencer,shane 187 15 37 4 11 .074 .802 .100 .281
taguchi,so 182 14 23 3 12 .071 .874 .094 .291
sweeney,mark 181 34 51 9 14 .158 .718 .177 .266
ledee,ricky 177 28 47 7 9 .137 .734 .123 .233
mccracken,quint 177 15 27 2 12 .078 .847 .093 .273
grabowski,jason 173 19 50 7 7 .099 .711 .114 .220
thames,marcus 165 19 41 10 12 .103 .752 .177 .256
glanville,doug 164 8 21 2 2 .047 .872 .028 .210
wise,dewayne 163 10 28 6 13 .058 .828 .141 .228
escobar,alex 152 24 42 1 10 .136 .724 .100 .211
mccarty,dave 152 16 40 4 9 .095 .737 .116 .258
nixon,trot 151 16 24 6 10 .096 .841 .126 .315
hollandsworth,t 148 18 26 8 8 .108 .824 .131 .318
cruz,jacob 147 20 43 3 8 .120 .707 .106 .224
sizemore,grady 140 19 34 4 8 .119 .757 .113 .246


up-and-comer.


lane,jason 138 17 33 4 12 .110 .761 .152 .272
guiel,aaron 136 20 42 5 4 .128 .691 .096 .156
logan,nook 134 13 24 0 7 .088 .821 .064 .278
mondesi,raul 133 14 31 3 9 .095 .767 .118 .241
palmeiro,orland 133 21 19 3 5 .136 .857 .070 .241
gross,gabe 129 19 31 3 4 .128 .760 .071 .209


he's got potential.


williams,gerald 129 8 26 4 10 .058 .798 .136 .233
gonzalez,juan 128 10 19 5 5 .072 .852 .092 .276
mateo,ruben 126 11 26 3 7 .080 .794 .100 .206
devore,doug 107 7 31 3 5 .061 .710 .105 .224
goodwin,tom 106 8 22 0 8 .070 .792 .095 .200
hawpe,brad 106 12 34 3 5 .102 .679 .111 .248
bragg,darren 101 10 31 4 4 .090 .693 .114 .188


there it is. i plan to put a few links in there but i wanted to get this published. there are only a few more players to talk about. guys that didn't get mentioned yet, dh's and other miscellaneous folks.

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