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Saturday, July 12, 2003
so i've been doing some regressions, and i've discovered that hits on contact, whose formula is h/(ab-k), is easily predicted by pow:

h/(ab - k) = .273 + .285*pow

you can use this to see how lucky or unlucky a player has been, as well as to predict future performance.

what did i do with this new toy? i immediately ran the numbers for all hitters. i discovered that paul konerko has been one unlucky bastard.

paul (fo' real) .184/.258/.278/.536 (avg/obp/slg/ops)
paul (should be) .272/.337/.365/.703

and he should be even better than that. everybody knows konerko don't slug that low.

other unlucky bastards:

david bell .198/.297/.287/.584 .263/.354/.352/.706
rafael palmeiro .243/.356/.490/.846 .306/.409/.553/.963
adam dunn .208/.347/.505/.852 .262/.389/.559/.948
miguel tejada .247/.299/.427/.726 .300/.348/.480/.828
edgardo alfonzo .235/.314/.337/.651 .285/.358/.387/.745
brad ausmus .206/.278/.265/.542 .255/.322/.314/.635
pat burrell .194/.301/.384/.685 .240/.341/.430/.771

the first chunk is real, the second should be. so who are these guys? i think you know. these are exactly the guys everyone's been worried about. "what's wrong with tejada?" "what's wrong with edgardo?" etc. etc. etc. over and over again. i'll tell you what's wrong: nothing. these guys are doing what they've done for years. the difference is when they've hit the ball, it's gone to fielders. that's it.

the opposite question is who's been lucky?

melvin mora .356/.452/.576/1.028 .280/.383/.500/.883
ichiro suzuki .349/.387/.471/.857 .283/.323/.405/.729
milton bradley .331/.437/.509/.946 .269/.384/.447/.831
scott podsednik .321/.397/.435/.832 .260/.340/.374/.714
derek jeter .316/.384/.453/.837 .260/.330/.397/.727
michael young .323/.358/.469/.827 .269/.308/.415/.723
rocco baldelli .308/.334/.452/.787 .258/.285/.402/.688

again, real followed by what should be. looks like a list of al hitting leaders. one entry that deserves comment is suzuki. he gets on base with speed, which our system doesn't account for. i'm working on that. he's one of the few players where it makes a difference.

once the break comes i'll run a complete wal con pow.
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