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Friday, January 09, 2004
the mariners are stupid
carlos guillen is better than rich aurilia.
guillen:
year aab w k hr wal con pow
1998 39 3 9 0 .071 .769 .067
1999 19 1 6 1 .050 .684 .077
2000 291 30 53 7 .093 .818 .101
2001 462 54 89 5 .105 .807 .080
2002 478 47 91 9 .090 .810 .101
2003 393 53 64 7 .119 .837 .088
aurilia:
year aab w k hr wal con pow
1995 20 1 2 2 .048 .900 .278
1996 320 26 52 3 .075 .838 .041
1997 104 8 15 5 .071 .856 .146
1998 415 33 62 9 .074 .851 .108
1999 563 48 71 22 .079 .874 .093
2000 513 54 90 20 .095 .825 .109
2001 639 47 83 37 .069 .870 .142
2002 545 41 90 15 .070 .835 .114
2003 508 37 82 13 .068 .839 .094
aurilia's had some fine years---2001, for example---but we're not talking about what he's done, we're talking about what he's gonna do. and what he's gonna do is get out more often. how do we know? the opposite of out percentage is on-base percentage. the first component of obp is walks. with a probable wal over .100, guillen wins that one easily. the next component of obp is hits. let's look at the formula:
predicted obp = wal + (1-wal)*(pav)
pav is predicted batting average. here's how we get it:
predicted avg = con/4 + con*pow/2 + speed to first
the replacement level on speed to first is 0. ichiro suzuki, juan pierre, luis castillo are in the .070--.080 range. notice that all bat (mostly) left and steal bases.
let's use .070 .840 .110 for aurilia and .100 .820 .090 for guillen (wal con pow). i think you'll agree that the former set of numbers is optimistic, the latter pessimistic. we'll also assume zero for speed to first.
aurilia: pob = .070 + (.930)*(.210 + .055) = .316
guillen: pob = .100 + (.900)*(.205 + .045) = .325
aurilia's number splits the difference between his last 2 years. guillen's, however, is lower than his career average. some of that can be accounted for by the fact that he's a switch-hitter, and therefore bats left-handed the majority of the time. so his speed score should be higher than zero. the rest is due to our pessimism. so it's really not even close.
here's the kicker: guillen is 28. aurilia is 32.
here's the other kicker: guillen is cheaper.
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