Julien's Faster than Light Blog
Jump to top
Tuesday, August 12, 2003
jack cust
baseball people say things like "*&@# you fuckin numbers people you don't know anything about baseball!" then baseball prospectus says "ha ha those crazy baseball people!"
i'm starting to side with the baseball people. here's what baseball prospectus says about jack cust:
Not a flight risk. Wouldn't it be nice if he actually hit .276/.394/.530? He won't. He got no boost from playing at altitude. That projection assumes his static performance is just a case of the triple-A blues and that he'll get over it right now. It took Jeremy Giambi a while, and it would be unusual for a hitter this good not to make it, but if his raw stats don't improve substantially this year you can write him off as a potential star.
some of this i understand, some i don't. let's decode:
not a flight risk = he's slow.
.276/.394/.530 = their computer's projection for him this year.
he got no boost from playing at altitude = his high-altitude colorado springs numbers were the same as his non-high-altitude tucson numbers the year before.
static performance = his high-altitude colorado springs numbers were the same as his non-high-altitude tucson numbers the year before.
triple-A blues = his high-altitude colorado springs numbers were the same as his non-high-altitude tucson numbers the year before.
etc.
bp's thing that they've got is they know walks and home runs are undervalued. so they see jack cust and start drooling. the fact that he can't run, can't field and can't make contact with the ball makes them even more excited because they're hell-bent on finding "overlooked prospects."
year team lea age ab wal con pow pra
2003 Ottawa AAA 24 333 .194 .718 .329 5.07
2002 Col Spr AAA 23 359 .188 .663 .384 6.82
2001 Tucson AAA 22 442 .188 .638 .383 6.55
2000 El Paso AA 21 447 .207 .664 .373 6.83
1999 High Desert A 20 455 .174 .681 .405 8.95
1998 Lethbridge R 19 223 .278 .682 .380 8.94
1997 AZL D-backs R 18 121 .204 .678 .349 5.96
". . . if his raw numbers don't improve substantially you can write him off as a potential star."
that statement contradicts their whole system. but they knew somehow something was wrong. what happened was he got lucky with batting average in 2001, then had normal luck at altitude. bp pulled a pat gillick and assumed the lucky year was real and the real year was "no help at altitude". the fact is, jack cust is exactly the kind of player who gets the most help at altitude---a no-contact high-walk masher. the problem with that kind of player is the cliff(tm). at 24, cust is teetering.
incidentally, jeremy giambi didn't "make it."
year team lea age ab wal con pow pra
2003 Boston AL 28 127 .170 .669 .340 4.35
2002 Oak/Phi MLB 27 313 .202 .700 .373 6.84
2001 Oakland AL 26 371 .145 .776 .334 5.14
2000 Oakland AL 25 260 .110 .765 .336 4.72
1999 Kansas City AL 24 288 .122 .767 .304 3.28
1999 Omaha AAA 24 127 .196 .764 .399 9.93
1998 Omaha AAA 23 325 .149 .803 .366 7.63
1997 Wichita AA 22 268 .141 .825 .337 5.95
1997 Lansing A 22 116 .165 .862 .353 7.99
1996 Spokane A 21 231 .209 .861 .323 6.21
2002 was his peak. billy beane realized that and dumped his contract. he'll be out of baseball in a few years.
baseball prospectus, you were crucial to my development, but now i own you.
Comments:
Post a Comment
