third base
the hardball times has win shares. it's too bad because it used to be on baseball graphs and they had defensive innings but they don't do that (tht).

win shares are valuable because they give us a rough measure of defensive value. we're gonna talk about players by position. starting with third base. why third base? it's the new hitter's position. yeah the great shift is now complete: the hitter positions are on the corners and the fielder positions are in the middle.

win shares has the right name but the wrong execution. it's not based on who contributes the most to a team's wins, but rather who contributes the most to runs being scored (or prevented). thus, like most stathead measures, it undervalues a hitter's ability to make contact, while correspondingly overvaluing patience and power. it also undervalues defense. for pitchers, it undervalues the ability to strike folks out.

but we're talking about hitters. yes, and fielders.

third base:

ok so the first thing we're gonna talk about is hitting. we have four categories: difference makers, strong contributors, up-and-comers, and guys.

a difference maker is someone who contributes on the order of 10 wins. walking is good, obviously, because it gets you on base. contact is underrated, because it helps most in low-run situations, and sabermetricians fail to recognize the value of low-run situations. power is also obviously good. so who's the number one difference maker?

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

beltre,adrian  602  55  87 48 32 .084 .855 .155 .334

48 home runs in dodger stadium. nobody saw that coming. and he's still only 25. that's great con, in a low-con environment, and great power with that con. i would estimate he gave his team 15-20 wins (above replacement, which is about 42). the dodgers won 93. where'd the rest come from? gagne, izturis, cora, bradley, loduca, in that order. green.

the next three difference-makers are all very close in rank. i'll present them together.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

mora,melvin    553  77  95 27 41 .122 .828 .148 .340

ramirez,aramis 554  52  62 36 33 .086 .888 .140 .318

rolen,scott    507  85  92 34 36 .144 .819 .169 .314

melvin mora has not gotten the respect he deserves. he went from shortstop to center field to third base, and he has absolutely raked the past two years.

aramis ramirez, that con is retarded. and he's only 26.

scott rolen is good too.

the next guy is almost there with those guys, but falls barely short.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

lowell,mike    601  69  77 27 45 .103 .872 .137 .293

that's the complete package right there. ahh, the marlins. if only they'd had josh beckett (for the whole season).

that's it. 5 difference makers, hitting-wise. that's a lot. if we had 5 difference makers from each (non-pitching) position, we'd have 40 difference makers (not counting dh's). and there are not 40 difference makers among position players in the major leagues. now let's look at the strong contributors.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

chavez,eric    479  98  99 29 20 .170 .793 .129 .276

with that wal, in oakland coliseum, a little more playing time and he's a difference maker. but see below.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

rodriguez,alex 608  90 131 36 26 .129 .785 .130 .286

as a shortstop, that hitting makes him a difference maker. but as a third baseman, he's a strong contributor. btw, there's no way he breaks the home run record. those strikeouts are getting ugly.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

jones,chipper  479  88  96 30 21 .155 .800 .133 .248

this placement is based on talent level. chipper was terribly unlucky this year while fighting through injury and a position change. his con should be much higher. it will be next year.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

blalock,hank   632  81 149 32 41 .114 .764 .151 .276

that strikeout rate is worrisome, especially in texas. he's young; he could bring it up.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

hillenbrand,sh 568  36  49 15 39 .060 .914 .104 .310

with that con, he can hit anybody. waitaminnit, he's not a third baseman. whatever he's a strong contributor.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

blake,casey    590  77 139 28 39 .115 .764 .149 .271

pretty much the same numbers as blalock. in a tougher park (normal, instead of funhouse). why is he ranked lower? (1) he's older, so we don't expect as much improvement; (2) fewer plate appearances.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

mueller,bill   405  55  56 12 28 .120 .862 .115 .283

above average in every area. that's a quality performer in all situations.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

glaus,troy     208  34  52 18 12 .140 .750 .192 .251

he's supposed to be in his physical prime, but troy glaus keeps getting injured. what's he gonna do next year? hell if i know.

so he's a strong contributor if he's healthy. now for the up-and-comers.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

burroughs,sean 523  40  52  2 26 .071 .901 .059 .298

all sean burroughs needs is a little power. at 24, he's a good bet to get it.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

youkilis,kevin 211  37  45  7 11 .149 .787 .108 .260

kevin youkilis filled in nicely for the red sox in bill mueller's absence. he's 25, and he does everything, especially walk. also took third when bellhorn was out, with mueller shifting to second. that was a good lineup for them.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

wright,david   266  17  40 14 18 .060 .850 .142 .293

i predicted it would take a while for david wright to learn contact. it didn't.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

tracy,chad     486  45  60  8 31 .085 .877 .092 .285

high quality production. he's 24.

the final up-and-comer isn't in the majors yet, but he will be. he just finished a year of aa in which he slugged .525. today is his 21st birthday. he can drink now! his name is andy marte. happy birthday, andy!

the rest are guys.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

ensberg,morgan 415  36  46 10 23 .080 .889 .089 .275

in 2004, he was just a guy. but ensberg hit the crap out of the ball in 2003. is he done? maybe. but his contact went way up. there's a slight chance he'll put it all together.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

batista,tony   616  28  78 32 32 .043 .873 .119 .241

tony batista is an enigma. great contact and great power, but he just can't take a pitch. maybe one day he'll learn.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

castilla,vinny 591  57 113 35 46 .088 .809 .169 .271

moved to colorado and his con went down. that's not supposed to happen. terrible acquisition for the expos (nationals, whatever).

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

hinske,eric    576  58 109 15 26 .091 .811 .088 .246

what the hell happened to eric hinske? he should be in his prime.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

bell,david     538  63  75 18 34 .105 .861 .112 .291

alfonzo,edgard 523  50  40 11 27 .087 .924 .079 .289

feliz,pedro    508  23  85 22 36 .043 .833 .137 .276

another guy who'd be a lot better with a little more patience.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

mackowiak,rob  498  56 114 17 28 .101 .771 .117 .246

crede,joe      495  44  81 21 25 .082 .836 .111 .239

it looked like he was gonna make it. then he was a white sock.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

randa,joe      493  46  77  8 33 .085 .844 .099 .289

koskie,corey   427  61 103 25 26 .125 .759 .157 .251

zeile,todd     350  45  83  9 16 .114 .763 .094 .233

munson,eric    321  35  90 19 16 .098 .720 .152 .212

derosa,mark    315  26  53  3 16 .076 .832 .073 .239

unlucky with hits, but no one cares.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

castro,juan    300  14  51  5 23 .045 .830 .112 .244

helms,wes      276  30  60  4 14 .098 .783 .083 .263

not good.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

easley,damion  225  32  36  9 21 .125 .840 .159 .238

retarded numbers. probably due to small sample size.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

carroll,jamey  221  33  21  0 16 .130 .905 .080 .289

actually a second baseman. jamey carroll has the same exact birthday as me. you know, if he could add a little power, he'd be a superstar.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

hernandez,jose 211  27  61 13 13 .113 .711 .173 .289

merloni,lou    193  17  41  4 13 .081 .788 .112 .289

bloomquist,wil 188  10  48  2 10 .051 .745 .086 .245

perez,tomas    177  10  44  6 15 .053 .751 .158 .216

stynes,chris   162  11  23  1 10 .064 .858 .079 .216

branyan,russel 160  22  68 11 12 .121 .575 .250 .234

.575? you gotta be kiddin me.

               aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

ventura,robin  153  22  31  5  3 .126 .797 .066 .243

larson,brandon 119  16  35  3  6 .119 .706 .107 .212

rolls,damian   119  11  36  0  5 .085 .697 .060 .162

clark,howie    117  13  15  3  6 .100 .872 .088 .217

halter,shane   114   7  30  4  5 .058 .737 .107 .202

hummel,tim     111  10  17  1  4 .083 .847 .053 .218

green,andy     110   7  17  1  3 .060 .845 .043 .202

leone,justin   103  12  32  6  5 .104 .689 .155 .204

ouch. the strikeouts. ouchskies.
- posted by julien @ 6:50 PM