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Tuesday, March 16, 2004
shut up asshole i know what i'm doing
strong rebuttal from aziz:

the advantage i have is i get to respond immediately.

touche on burnett: i was in too much of a hurry.

glavine, maddux: every year we see guys that are "the next tom glavine" or "the next greg maddux". but there ain't but one tom glavine. and there ain't but one greg maddux. and remember: late 80's numbers are way different from early 2000's.

remlinger, holmes: both of these guys made it at a very late age. so as prospects, they were horrible. also, braves fan, for all these guys so far, we can't discount the effect of leo mazzone.

i have not been clear about what i'm trying to do. now is my opportunity. what i'm trying to do is tell, by looking at the numbers, who's a prospect and who isn't. for minor-league pitchers, the only reliable predictor of success is k/ip. once we get pow and park factors we'll be able to say more; there are a lot of fine points that escape a fast-and-loose analysis.

the other thing is i'm not a scout. i did get to see kyle farnsworth pitch when he was young, and i can tell you i thought he was a killer. but i don't think there's any way to look at his stat line and predict that. if you know he throws 98, maybe you can say something. but we don't have pitch speeds for people.

projecting relievers is tough, then. scouts are in a much better position to evaluate them. but scouts have trouble, too: a lot of these guys come out of nowhere.

there will always be exceptions. exceptions can be telling, and we of course want to limit them as much as possible. personally, i have to first understand general principles. our thinking is complementary.

thanks for the insight.
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