first things
first, we have sean casey. that's right: the sabermetricians' favorite whipping boy turned out to be the most valuable first baseman in the majors.

first base is the position where people see a high-strikeout, high-power hitter and say "see! he's better than (tino martinez, say)! he could play in the majors!" because you can't use defense as an excuse.

but the thing is defense at first *does* matter. it just matters less than the other positions. but the more important thing is those arguments are based on a misunderstanding of hitting.

hitting was the one thing we thought we had figured out (sabermetricians. i used to be one). but it turns out we didn't know shit. we didn't know that contact and defense are way more important in low-run situations than patience and power. so we made fools of ourselves trying to make fools of others. that's ironic.

"who is more foolish, the fool, or the fool who follows him?"

thank you obi-wan kenobi. without further ado, here are the major league first basemen of 2004:

Player           aab   w   k hr 23  wal  con  pow  avg

lee,derrek       610  76 128 32 40 .111 .790 .149 .278

one of the cadre of cubbies to club 30 this year. so what. dlee is not good enough at anything to be considered a strong contributor. he's borderline. the problem is the strikeouts. patience, power, and defense are all above average, but not enough above average to make enough of a difference. and he can't hit good pitching.

green,shawn      592  79 114 28 29 .118 .807 .119 .266

aren't those trade talks exciting? shawn may play in the infield or the outfield, but it doesn't matter. the corners are all the same. la took him just under crucial thresholds of effectiveness in contact and power. arizona should be good to him, raising him back over said thresholds. one of the most overpaid players in the game (along with yankees).

overbay,lyle     585  83 128 16 54 .124 .781 .153 .301

well, he hit a lot of doubles. it was luck. 2004 was lyle's career year. his contact is bad. he will fade into obscurity.

casey,sean       577  56  36 24 46 .088 .938 .129 .324

these are the numbers that boggle the mind. .938 contact with 24 home runs and 46 doubles? you gotta be kidding me. he passed 1000 hits this year at the age of 30. he won't get 3,000 but he'll get 2,500.

bagwell,jeff     575 104 131 27 31 .153 .772 .131 .266

he can still walk, but jeff bagwell no longer has the power to be a strong contributor. and he's never had the contact. he's just a guy.

konerko,paul     568  74 107 41 22 .115 .812 .137 .277

i ain't tryna dis on jeff bagwell. he is a hall of famer.

but paul konerko is not. he's a guy. i know where are the difference makers. we're getting there.

do i have to say something about konerko? the home runs were luck. he doesn't have enough to maintain, and he's just a guy. 2004 was his career year.

palmeiro,rafael  559  91  61 23 29 .140 .891 .104 .258

amazing walk/contact combo. enough to make him a strong contributor. looks like power decline is gonna be his end. 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, gold gloves. . . gotta be the hall, right?

hatteberg,scott  558  77  48 15 30 .121 .914 .088 .284

scott hatteberg is our number 2 difference maker. he gets on base, makes great contact, plays great defense, in a pitcher's park. he gets on base. against good pitchers. he gets on base.

helton,todd      553 130  72 32 51 .190 .870 .173 .347

and here is number 3. it's really difficult to place a colorado player's numbers in the scheme of things, but this seems about right. none of his numbers would be as high, but they'd all be above average, were he in another park.

nevin,phil       552  71 121 26 32 .114 .781 .135 .289

yes, he hits the ball hard, and, poor guy, he played for the padres, but he's a guy.

teixeira,mark    547  78 117 38 36 .125 .786 .172 .281

this kid been crushin. that's power. difference maker number 4.

millar,kevin     514  73  91 18 36 .124 .823 .128 .297

nice numbers. at first base, that's a guy.

thome,jim        512 106 144 42 29 .172 .719 .193 .274

once again, jim thome walked a ton, hit a ton of home runs, struck out a ton. difference maker number 5. johnny 5? jimmy 5. number five is alive!

erstad,darin     499  41  74  7 30 .076 .852 .087 .295

no. umm, no. waste of money. whatever.

pena,carlos      486  73 146 27 26 .131 .700 .156 .241

too many strikeouts. not gonna make it. neither is hee seop choi, by the way. especially in dodger stadium.

delgado,carlos   469  81 115 32 26 .147 .755 .164 .269

that's enough patience and power to be a strong contributor. the strikeouts aren't terrible yet.

martinez,tino    463  75  72 23 21 .139 .844 .113 .262

the new $3 million yankee. $3 million, that's like, clubhouse attendant, right? haha, hoohoo, he's just a guy. those are guy numbers.

harvey,ken       458  36  89 13 21 .073 .806 .092 .287

ken had a hot start, but he cooled off. he's 26, but he doesn't have enough to improve into strong contributor, so he's just a guy. those numbers are really kind of bad for kansas city.

olerud,john      430  69  61  9 21 .138 .858 .081 .259

strong on-base skills in low-run situations. great defense. useful in the playoffs. still has the skills to be a guy. let's look at his career. .399 obp. nice.

broussard,ben    420  64  95 17 33 .132 .774 .154 .275

blah. career year. may get a few more like this. that's it.

sweeney,mike     413  39  44 22 23 .086 .893 .122 .287

mike sweeney has had fantastic walk, contact, and power numbers for years. last year, his power slipped. this year, his patience slipped. he's been fighting injuries. he's 31. it doesn't look good.

mientkiewicz,do  393  51  56  6 25 .115 .858 .092 .238

terrible luck with hits. still makes great contact, has great patience, plays great defense. like john olerud. but younger. so not as good as olerud was at that age.

spiezio,scott    373  40  60 10 15 .097 .839 .080 .215

sucks.

phillips,jason   367  43  42  7 18 .105 .886 .077 .218

good patience, good contact, bad luck with hits.

snow,j.t.        350  65  61 12 33 .157 .826 .156 .327

where the hell did that come from? i don't know but he's a strong contributor. can he do it again?

choi,hee_seop    347  67  96 15 22 .162 .723 .147 .251

guy. as i said above, wrong kind of guy for dodger stadium, but they got him; they might as well use him.

laroche,adam     326  28  78 13 28 .079 .761 .165 .278

up-and-comer.

franco,julio     323  37  68  6 21 .103 .789 .106 .309

keeps chuggin along. you gotta love a guy who can hit .300 at the age of 46. i don't know. he's had some great years.

gonzalez,luis_a  323  19  67 12 19 .056 .793 .121 .292

actually a second baseman. if he can't hit in colorado, he can't hit anywhere. a .793 con is terrible there.

lamb,mike        281  31  63 14 17 .099 .776 .142 .288

giambi,jason     267  55  62 12  9 .171 .768 .102 .208

ha ha. the slide's been comin, actually. the stikeouts have been mounting. he's gonna make a lot of money doin nothin.

clark,tony       255  28  92 16 12 .099 .639 .172 .221

johnson,nick     252  43  58  7 16 .146 .770 .119 .251

still an up-and-comer, but this is the last time.

mabry,john       243  27  63 13 11 .100 .741 .133 .296

simon,randall    193  21  19  3  6 .098 .902 .052 .188

offerman,jose    172  29  31  2 16 .144 .820 .128 .256

jacobsen,bucky   161  15  47  9  9 .085 .708 .158 .275

quinlan,robb     161  16  26  5 14 .090 .839 .141 .344

perry,herbert    136  17  19  5  3 .111 .860 .068 .224

kotchman,casey   117  11  11  0  6 .086 .906 .057 .224

up-and-comer.

saenz,olmedo     114  14  33  8  1 .109 .711 .111 .279

hansen,dave      107  21  21  2  5 .164 .804 .081 .245

karros,eric      104   7  16  2  6 .063 .846 .091 .194

hey!

alright let's rank them:

1. casey
2. hatteberg
3. helton
4. teixera
5. thome
6. snow
7. palmeiro
8. delgado

kind of a transition period. look out for the next generation. the other up-and-comer is prince fielder.
- posted by julien @ 6:32 PM