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Tuesday, January 18, 2005
yesterday
keeping up with the news . . .
soriano gets $7.5 million
he's not worth it, but the rangers can't really afford to admit it.
year aab w k hr 23 wal con pow
1999 8 0 3 1 0 .000 .625 .200
2000 50 1 15 2 3 .020 .700 .143
2001 579 32 125 18 37 .052 .784 .121
2002 703 37 157 39 53 .050 .777 .168
2003 684 50 130 38 41 .068 .810 .143
2004 615 43 121 28 36 .065 .803 .130
he was born in 1976, but we thought he was born in 1978. anyway so he's peaked. he peaked in 2002--2003. unless he's the next sammy sosa:
year aab w k hr 23 wal con pow
1989 185 13 47 4 8 .066 .746 .087
1990 538 39 150 15 36 .068 .721 .131
1991 317 16 98 10 11 .048 .691 .096
1992 264 23 63 8 9 .080 .761 .085
1993 599 42 135 33 30 .066 .775 .136
1994 430 27 92 25 23 .059 .786 .142
1995 566 63 134 36 20 .100 .763 .130
1996 502 39 134 40 23 .072 .733 .171
1997 647 47 174 36 35 .068 .731 .150
1998 648 74 171 66 20 .102 .736 .180
1999 631 81 171 63 26 .114 .729 .193
2000 612 93 168 50 39 .132 .725 .200
2001 589 122 153 64 39 .172 .740 .236
2002 560 106 144 49 21 .159 .743 .168
2003 522 67 143 40 22 .114 .726 .164
2004 481 58 133 35 21 .108 .723 .161
ok how to make sense of this data. well look at how similar these numbers are. contact percentages in the high .700's . . . low walk percentages, good power percentages. sammy was born in 1968, so he's 8 years older than alfonso (actually 7 years 2 months, but we're close enough).
so sammy's comparable years to alfonso's 2001--2004 would be 1993--96.
soriano:
2001 579 32 125 18 37 .052 .784 .121
2002 703 37 157 39 53 .050 .777 .168
2003 684 50 130 38 41 .068 .810 .143
2004 615 43 121 28 36 .065 .803 .130
batting averages didn't post they are .268 .300 .290 .280.
1993 599 42 135 33 30 .066 .775 .136
1994 430 27 92 25 23 .059 .786 .142
1995 566 63 134 36 20 .100 .763 .130
1996 502 39 134 40 23 .072 .733 .171
batting averages are .261 .300 .268 .273.
wow so first off those batting averages are very similar. but everything is similar look at those percentages. walk percentages are low, contact percentages are below average, and power is high. this is the profile of a free swinger with power. but look at what sammy did in 1995. he started to figure out how to take a walk. it didn't stick, maybe because he had bad luck with hits that year, but in 1998 it came back. and we all know what happened in 1998.
so what are we saying? is alfonso soriano the next sammy sosa? well he would like to be, but sosa is the exception, not the rule. most players never have the realization sammy had. most players don't all of a sudden develop patience. but power hitters are more likely than non-power hitters. so maybe it will happen.
until it does, all we know is that alfonso soriano has been one of the most overrated players of our generation. i was gonna say one of the most overrated players of all time. or the most overrated player of his time. both may be correct, but i'll play it safe. good luck, alfonso!
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