julien's baseball blog

Some moves are slightly good. Some moves are slightly bad. I tell you about them.
Tuesday, July 29, 2003
 
what, exactly, is a river cat?
ok nobody is doing any respectable minor-league analysis, so i'm gonna have to do it myself. i don't know how minor-league wal con pow translates to major-league numbers; for now, we'll have to play by ear. i suspect that wal and con come down about 20 points, and pow stays the same, because how hard you hit the ball is how hard you hit the ball. for now, that's our working hypothesis. it will be adjusted according to whim.

the first thing we're gonna do is look at the teams highest in the standings in their respective leagues, starting with the pcl. waddyaknow, it's the sacramento river cats!

age ab wal con pow pra
*Koonce, Graham 1b 28 359 .184 .730 .362 6.51
*McMillon, Billy of 31 153 .105 .804 .352 6.13
McCarty, Dave 1b 33 352 .118 .798 .346 5.83
Crosby, Bobby ss 23 350 .123 .746 .355 5.62
*Grabowski, Jaso of 27 221 .105 .833 .333 5.40
Edwards, Mike of 26 319 .124 .824 .327 5.11
*Lockwood, Mike of 26 151 .074 .874 .325 5.06
*Johnson, Mark c 27 101 .205 .842 .310 5.01
Lopez, Luis 3b 29 374 .072 .864 .321 4.66
#Rose, Mike c 26 148 .196 .791 .312 4.51
#Melhuse, Adam c 31 147 .155 .782 .318 4.38
*Prieto, Chris of 30 269 .129 .881 .303 4.32
German, Esteban 2b 25 322 .125 .860 .300 3.89
Flores, Jose ss 30 281 .154 .865 .291 3.62
*Sellier, Brian of 25 67 .095 .776 .289 2.52

stats from baseball america. a * in front means lefty; # means switch-hitter. isn't that cool?

these are some good baseball players. graham koonce, the best hitter, could start for a number of teams. at 28, though, he's not a prospect, so he'll probably fade into obscurity.

billy mcmillon, dave mccarty, and adam melhuse are at the show. melhuse i don't know why. mark johnson is better.

bobby crosby is the super-prospect: a power-hitting shortstop. presumably he'll take over for tejada next year. they say he's untouchable, but if i were billy beane, i'd trade him. he'll have some good years, but that con is gonna bring him down. also if i were beane i'd do something about my anger-management problem. billy, if you're reading this, give me a job!

mike lockwood, with that high con, could still develop. if he does, he'll last. he's someone to keep an eye on. ditto for esteban german, but he's got a lot of work to do.

that's about it. brian sellier maybe. he hasn't played enough to evaluate. here are his numbers from midland:

sellier (aa) 271 .140 .801 .329 5.11

nope. not gonna make it.

age ab wal con pow pra
Harden, Rich 21 319 .101 .715 .330 3.77
Fikac, Jeremy 28 147 .075 .741 .330 3.81
Harville, Chad 26 205 .093 .732 .330 3.88
Duchscherer, Just 25 458 .021 .801 .330 3.93
Harang, Aaron 25 242 .066 .764 .330 3.97
Valentine, Joe 23 192 .162 .734 .330 4.55
Lehr, Justin 25 211 .094 .791 .330 4.57
Wood, Mike 23 253 .063 .822 .330 4.61
Hiljus, Erik 30 534 .084 .815 .330 4.74
Enochs, Chris 27 171 .119 .807 .330 5.00
1 Silva, Jose 29 104 .096 .827 .330 5.02
Castillo, Frank 34 372 .097 .841 .330 5.22
*Kusiewicz, Mike 26 41 .180 .780 .330 5.30
*Yarnall, Ed 27 158 .102 .861 .330 5.53
Smith, Roy 27 204 .146 .833 .330 5.64

the "1" in front of silva's name means he went somewhere else.

wow, there is a lot of talent here. remember when eric hiljus was the a's fifth starter? now he's the ninth-best pitcher on a triple-a team. eighth. richie already made it. hiljus and up are all major-league quality. joe valentine could be something special if he could get his walks down. but that's true about a lot of guys.

i can't believe jeremy fikac isn't in the bigs. must be an options thing.

look at the ages on these guys! chad harville is a stud. and justin duchscherer don't walk nobody! with the a's defense, that's a nasty combination. aaron harang is better than barry zito. that's not as surprising as it sounds. zito's having a bad year.

i feel bad for these river cats. most of them are good enough for the majors, but will never get that shot. they're the property of the oakland a's. it's better for baseball, or something.

this team would easily beat the detroit tigers.
 
my thinking on this has become so uptight!
we are settling into a tighter statline:

hitters and pitchers: ab wal con pow pra

at-bats you know. the rest i made up.

wal, con, and pow measure the three hitting skills: drawing walks, making contact, and hitting for power.

wal = (bb + hbp) / (ab + bb + hbp)
con = (ab - k) / ab
pow = .273 + .285 * ((tb - h) / (ab - k))

ed: pow has changed slightly.

they can be used to predict traditional metrics, like avg, obp, and slg:

pav = con * pow
pob = wal + (1-wal) * con * pow
psl = con * pow + con * (pow - .273) / .285

i'm working on a formula to account for speed, which is an important factor for certain extreme players, such as ichiro suzuki.

pra is predicted run average, ie how many runs a team of entirely that player would score in a game. it's based on bill james' runs created per 27 outs. ready?

pra = .9 * pob * psl * ab * 27 / ((1 - pav) * ab)

the pob * psl * ab part approximates runs created. the 27 / ((1 - pav) * ab) part is the "per 27 outs". the .9 is a scalar that accounts for other types of outs people get, like caught stealing and double plays. it'll make the hitters look worse, but it's closer to reality. a more precise formula, which will be used when the data allow, is:

pra = (bb + hbp + pav * ab - cs - gdp) / (ab + bb + hbp) * (psl * ab + .24 * (bb + hbp) + .62 * sb) * 27 / ((1 - pav) * ab + cs + gdp)

had enough? i have. for more information, and the mission statement, go here.
 
new blogs
rich's weekend baseball beat is a great blog that backs everything up with lots of numbers. i mentioned last week that ken griffey and frank thomas are hall-of-famers. he says the same, and proves it. plus, his page has a nice look to it!

also, jody gerut has a blog! he seems intelligent. i'm becoming a big fan of this guy.
 
wal con pow in use!
tim daloisio of musings from rsn did an analysis of manny ramirez that uses wal con pow. now those are some numbers i can understand!

i couldn't find a link to the particular article, but it's in the tuesday, july 29 section. the remarkable thing is manny right now is making more contact than ever before. the other remarkable thing is all that power.

of course he is also an on-base machine.

disclaimer: i said that con peaks at 23, but that's really just a guess. i have got to get this database built. there are so many questions to answer.
Monday, July 28, 2003
 
lookin' for a pickup?
stats are great, but if you're me, you wanna know who you can pick up that will help your fantasy team. with that in mind, here are some players that might have been overlooked. many don't have enough plate appearances to show up on leaderboards. some are young. all are presented here with meaningful numbers, thanks to our good friends wal, con, and pow:

ab wal con pow pav/pob/psl rc/27
ensberg,morgan 228 .146 .820 .374 .306/.408/.596 9.46

if word isn't out on this guy, you don't need my help. but i thought i'd mention him anyway. . . .

guiel,aaron 141 .113 .787 .376 .296/.375/.579 8.34

the sample size is small, but this kid keeps mashing. i didn't see him on any prospect lists. did you? not that i look that closely.

what else has he done?

2003 (AAA) 190 .148 .774 .345 .267/.375/.461 6.38

that's a little more reasonable. still, it's pretty good. does anybody know how to get minor-league stats from previous years?

stairs,matt 180 .118 .789 .369 .291/.375/.558 7.97

they're finally playing him, and the wonder hampster's for real.

johnson,nick 130 .212 .815 .343 .280/.432/.480 7.77

you know about nick johnson, right?

cabrera,miguel 111 .090 .793 .364 .288/.352/.541 7.23

that pow looks suspiciously high, considering the sample size.

same guy (AA) 266 .104 .816 .358 .292 .366/.537/7.50

it just occurred to me that i've never heard of this guy. he can mash, though. holy shit he's 20! keeper leagues, listen up! this kid is gonna make it. you know, he's probably not 20. when was his visa last renewed?

gerut,jody 264 .077 .848 .351 .297/.352/.529 7.14

are cleveland fans aware of jody gerut? he's 25, and he's got a shot at an mvp in 3 years.

feliz,pedro 152 .050 .796 .367 .292/.328/.555 6.95

pedro feliz is not that good. he's been lucky with home runs.

davanon,jeff 193 .085 .829 .346 .287/.348/.499 6.57

everybody knows about jeff davanon, right?

how 'bout some middle infielders?

kata,matt 123 .102 .805 .348 .280/.354/.491 6.51
polanco,placido 339 .101 .917 .322 .296/.367/.455 6.40
graffanino,tony 163 .109 .834 .338 .282/.360/.472 6.40
cintron,alex 233 .075 .936 .320 .299/.352/.454 6.16
cabrera,jolbert 193 .085 .819 .342 .280/.341/.476 6.09

the only guy getting full playing time is polanco, who i included because i can't believe he's producing. i'm a recovering baseball prospectus reader, and all they do is trash him. two d-backs make the list. kata is 25; cintron is 24. cintron is gonna be a star. he's actually playing full-time. and cabrera is blocked by alex cora. how long can that last? finally, i had to mention tony graffanino, who would've gone to some all-star games by now if someone had let him play.

catchers, anyone?

phillips,jason 230 .109 .883 .321 .283/.361/.431 5.86
hall,toby 286 .068 .937 .311 .292/.340/.418 5.41

phillips is playing first base, and he's catcher-eligible. at 26, he's got a future.

toby hall you probably know about. but he has had bad luck: .269/.314/.395. he will improve.

don't forget about the rookie of the year:

hinske,eric 253 .115 .759 .346 .262/.347/.456 5.80

and finally, some kids with a future:

broussard,ben 209 .095 .789 .339 .267/.337/.449 5.58
johnson,reed 210 .087 .876 .319 .280/.343/.423 5.43
mench,kevin 125 .094 .864 .321 .277/.345/.421 5.42

ages are 26, 26, and 25. mench is hurt right now. all will produce nice, big numbers over the next 5 years.
 
stats!
through 7-27:

player ab wal con pow pav pob psl rc/27
bonds,barry 281 .268 .843 .411 .347 .522 .756 16.32
pujols,albert 387 .114 .904 .374 .338 .414 .659 11.12
edmonds,jim 320 .144 .759 .408 .310 .409 .669 10.71
lopez,javy 293 .067 .816 .397 .324 .369 .679 10.00
sheffield,gary 369 .148 .911 .356 .324 .424 .590 10.00
helton,todd 399 .149 .872 .363 .317 .419 .592 9.80
lowell,mike 379 .114 .847 .374 .317 .395 .618 9.65
piazza,mike 111 .133 .865 .365 .316 .407 .595 9.54
griffey,ken_jr 166 .166 .735 .397 .292 .409 .611 9.53
delgado,carlos 384 .162 .763 .388 .296 .410 .603 9.47
thomas,frank 347 .182 .781 .378 .295 .423 .584 9.46
ensberg,morgan 228 .146 .820 .374 .306 .408 .596 9.46
ramirez,manny 383 .151 .851 .363 .309 .413 .578 9.33
giambi,jason 350 .217 .737 .382 .282 .438 .565 9.29
berkman,lance 350 .175 .817 .360 .294 .417 .542 8.65
boone,bret 400 .105 .823 .370 .304 .377 .584 8.56
rolen,scott 352 .154 .804 .366 .294 .403 .555 8.55
gonzalez,luis 393 .131 .893 .348 .311 .401 .545 8.54
wells,vernon 443 .067 .876 .363 .318 .364 .593 8.53
sweeney,mike 215 .183 .865 .345 .298 .427 .517 8.49
giles,brian 288 .198 .875 .340 .297 .436 .502 8.42
guiel,aaron 141 .113 .787 .376 .296 .375 .579 8.34
burnitz,jeromy 276 .095 .772 .383 .295 .362 .592 8.23
guillen,jose 307 .075 .805 .376 .302 .355 .592 8.13
posada,jorge 305 .204 .767 .361 .277 .424 .513 8.12
anderson,garret 410 .051 .868 .363 .315 .350 .588 8.11
hidalgo,richard 319 .104 .837 .361 .302 .374 .559 8.09
palmeiro,rafael 349 .145 .860 .347 .298 .400 .522 8.03
floyd,cliff 310 .129 .819 .359 .294 .386 .543 8.01
garciaparra,nom 433 .071 .917 .346 .317 .366 .553 8.00
stairs,matt 180 .118 .789 .369 .291 .375 .558 7.97
thome,jim 379 .165 .686 .391 .268 .389 .553 7.95
ordonez,magglio 391 .097 .872 .351 .306 .373 .544 7.89
klesko,ryan 304 .136 .803 .361 .289 .386 .536 7.87
nixon,trot 312 .133 .795 .363 .288 .383 .538 7.82
everett,carl 341 .119 .839 .354 .297 .380 .534 7.80
johnson,nick 130 .212 .815 .343 .280 .432 .480 7.77
varitek,jason 287 .095 .780 .374 .292 .359 .567 7.75
rodriguez,alex 397 .129 .781 .366 .286 .378 .540 7.72
sexson,richie 393 .157 .751 .369 .277 .390 .529 7.70
wilson,preston 416 .086 .769 .378 .291 .352 .574 7.69
dunn,adam 322 .187 .668 .388 .259 .398 .529 7.68
martinez,edgar 305 .157 .797 .355 .283 .396 .512 7.64
mueller,bill 322 .110 .848 .350 .297 .375 .527 7.58
ortiz,david 254 .115 .819 .357 .292 .373 .532 7.58
guerrero,vladim 194 .174 .861 .336 .289 .413 .480 7.54
drew,j.d. 199 .100 .849 .351 .298 .368 .529 7.48
walker,larry 312 .202 .801 .344 .275 .422 .474 7.45
jones,chipper 355 .151 .851 .340 .289 .396 .489 7.37
bagwell,jeff 392 .131 .809 .353 .285 .379 .513 7.34
huff,aubrey 401 .089 .853 .350 .298 .360 .528 7.32
lee,derrek 376 .149 .766 .360 .276 .384 .510 7.30
finley,steve 333 .107 .817 .355 .290 .366 .524 7.29
young,dmitri 369 .102 .764 .370 .283 .356 .543 7.28
sosa,sammy 299 .136 .692 .385 .266 .366 .537 7.23
cabrera,miguel 111 .090 .793 .364 .288 .352 .541 7.23
jones,andruw 390 .101 .790 .362 .286 .358 .532 7.20
gerut,jody 264 .077 .848 .351 .297 .352 .529 7.14
lawton,matt 323 .129 .867 .337 .292 .384 .487 7.13
gonzalez,juan 327 .052 .777 .375 .291 .328 .570 7.13
vidro,jose 344 .129 .913 .327 .299 .389 .473 7.10
alou,moises 386 .094 .912 .333 .304 .369 .495 7.09
fick,robert 267 .104 .899 .334 .300 .373 .491 7.05
chavez,eric 364 .101 .830 .349 .290 .362 .512 7.05
feliz,pedro 152 .050 .796 .367 .292 .328 .555 6.95
millar,kevin 346 .104 .809 .352 .285 .359 .511 6.93
byrnes,eric 324 .092 .858 .343 .294 .359 .504 6.93
rodriguez,ivan 323 .120 .820 .346 .284 .370 .495 6.90
beltran,carlos 316 .139 .851 .336 .286 .385 .472 6.87
durazo,erubiel 344 .175 .828 .334 .277 .403 .454 6.84
fullmer,brad 206 .120 .850 .338 .287 .373 .481 6.79
karros,eric 224 .093 .893 .333 .297 .363 .485 6.75
mientkiewicz,do 322 .110 .888 .331 .294 .372 .474 6.74
young,eric 346 .111 .922 .324 .299 .376 .463 6.71
conine,jeff 395 .088 .866 .339 .293 .355 .493 6.70
salmon,tim 354 .137 .825 .339 .280 .378 .472 6.70
mondesi,raul 361 .100 .817 .347 .284 .355 .497 6.66
myers,greg 226 .117 .836 .339 .284 .368 .478 6.63
abreu,bobby 370 .163 .768 .347 .267 .386 .467 6.63
glaus,troy 319 .128 .771 .353 .272 .366 .488 6.63
cabrera,orlando 408 .079 .895 .333 .298 .353 .487 6.62
mora,melvin 308 .144 .792 .344 .273 .378 .471 6.60
davanon,jeff 193 .085 .829 .346 .287 .348 .499 6.57
tejada,miguel 418 .079 .907 .329 .299 .354 .478 6.52
kata,matt 123 .102 .805 .348 .280 .354 .491 6.51
choi,hee_seop 172 .173 .674 .369 .249 .379 .475 6.47
spiezio,scott 316 .095 .873 .333 .291 .358 .474 6.46
ledee,ricky 177 .137 .774 .348 .269 .369 .473 6.45
giles,marcus 352 .107 .861 .333 .287 .363 .469 6.44
furcal,rafael 439 .091 .888 .330 .293 .358 .471 6.43
kent,jeff 304 .084 .836 .343 .286 .346 .490 6.42
polanco,placido 339 .101 .917 .322 .296 .367 .455 6.40
graffanino,tony 163 .109 .834 .338 .282 .360 .472 6.40
gonzalez,alex 352 .071 .832 .345 .287 .338 .497 6.37
gibbons,jay 387 .089 .853 .337 .287 .351 .479 6.36
munson,eric 280 .111 .821 .340 .279 .359 .472 6.35
hunter,torii 382 .099 .822 .342 .281 .352 .480 6.35
soriano,alfonso 451 .072 .809 .350 .284 .335 .503 6.35
koskie,corey 319 .140 .774 .346 .268 .370 .465 6.35
bradley,milton 334 .167 .805 .333 .269 .391 .439 6.33
cruz,jose 363 .156 .777 .342 .265 .380 .453 6.32
hernandez,ramon 308 .083 .838 .340 .285 .345 .483 6.29
sanders,reggie 285 .078 .719 .373 .268 .325 .521 6.25
payton,jay 391 .086 .877 .330 .290 .351 .466 6.22
castilla,vinny 363 .052 .857 .341 .292 .329 .496 6.22
blalock,hank 353 .073 .836 .342 .285 .338 .487 6.21
teixeira,mark 303 .114 .769 .350 .269 .353 .477 6.21
hillenbrand,she 315 .060 .876 .335 .293 .336 .484 6.21
vina,fernando 172 .075 .907 .326 .296 .349 .464 6.21
larue,jason 234 .124 .722 .361 .261 .352 .483 6.20
buchanan,brian 146 .110 .747 .357 .266 .347 .485 6.20
vanderwal,john 246 .131 .699 .366 .256 .353 .483 6.19
jenkins,geoff 383 .107 .731 .362 .264 .343 .491 6.19
banks,brian 108 .150 .731 .352 .258 .369 .461 6.19
cintron,alex 233 .075 .936 .320 .299 .352 .454 6.16
ibanez,raul 387 .076 .873 .332 .290 .344 .471 6.16
cordero,wil 288 .117 .840 .332 .279 .363 .452 6.15
lee,carlos 388 .067 .827 .343 .284 .332 .487 6.10
barrett,michael 198 .088 .828 .339 .281 .344 .473 6.10
kearns,austin 292 .136 .767 .344 .264 .364 .456 6.09
boone,aaron 393 .084 .817 .342 .280 .340 .478 6.09
cabrera,jolbert 193 .085 .819 .342 .280 .341 .476 6.09
valentin,jose 331 .117 .770 .347 .267 .353 .467 6.07
lofton,kenny 361 .077 .911 .322 .294 .348 .452 6.01
damon,johnny 409 .101 .885 .323 .286 .358 .443 6.00
white,rondell 338 .077 .837 .337 .283 .337 .472 5.99
williams,bernie 234 .143 .893 .315 .282 .384 .414 5.98
snow,j.t. 249 .159 .823 .326 .268 .384 .421 5.97
hammock,robby 106 .045 .792 .354 .281 .313 .507 5.97
renteria,edgar 397 .083 .909 .321 .292 .351 .446 5.96
stynes,chris 295 .122 .841 .328 .276 .364 .439 5.96
galarraga,andre 149 .080 .785 .349 .274 .332 .482 5.94
kielty,bobby 277 .155 .769 .337 .259 .374 .433 5.91
daubach,brian 133 .169 .752 .339 .255 .380 .427 5.89
lee,travis 327 .107 .832 .332 .276 .353 .447 5.89
berroa,angel 349 .079 .817 .340 .278 .335 .470 5.88
stewart,shannon 346 .087 .896 .322 .288 .350 .441 5.86
phillips,jason 230 .109 .883 .321 .283 .361 .431 5.86
johnson,charles 240 .124 .758 .345 .262 .353 .453 5.86
baerga,carlos 156 .055 .917 .323 .296 .334 .456 5.85
molina,ben 302 .041 .927 .323 .299 .328 .462 5.84
encarnacion,jua 397 .064 .879 .329 .289 .334 .460 5.84
hinske,eric 253 .115 .759 .346 .262 .347 .456 5.80
pierzynski,a.j. 306 .058 .889 .326 .290 .332 .457 5.76
martinez,tino 323 .103 .848 .327 .277 .352 .438 5.76
hatteberg,scott 363 .117 .901 .314 .283 .367 .412 5.69
wilkerson,brad 321 .153 .670 .360 .241 .358 .447 5.69
cameron,mike 356 .123 .719 .352 .253 .345 .453 5.65
randa,joe 292 .079 .873 .324 .283 .340 .441 5.64
grissom,marquis 400 .038 .860 .333 .287 .314 .469 5.58
broussard,ben 209 .095 .789 .339 .267 .337 .449 5.58
tucker,michael 364 .088 .777 .342 .266 .331 .456 5.55
schneider,brian 174 .130 .764 .337 .258 .354 .430 5.55
gonzalez,alex_s 377 .078 .804 .338 .272 .329 .455 5.54
ordonez,rey 117 .025 .897 .327 .294 .311 .465 5.53
mcgriff,fred 237 .092 .789 .339 .267 .335 .449 5.53
walker,todd 404 .073 .906 .317 .288 .340 .429 5.52
perez,eduardo 185 .115 .778 .336 .262 .347 .435 5.51
pena,carlos 254 .106 .748 .345 .258 .336 .447 5.47
clark,tony 167 .082 .689 .367 .253 .314 .480 5.46
burrell,pat 347 .143 .695 .351 .244 .352 .434 5.46
johnson,reed 210 .087 .876 .319 .280 .343 .423 5.43
mench,kevin 125 .094 .864 .321 .277 .345 .421 5.42
relaford,desi 322 .085 .870 .321 .279 .340 .425 5.42
patterson,corey 329 .046 .766 .352 .270 .304 .483 5.42
hall,toby 286 .068 .937 .311 .292 .340 .418 5.41
perez,eddie 228 .046 .868 .328 .285 .318 .451 5.41
catalanotto,fra 381 .059 .866 .326 .282 .325 .442 5.40
green,shawn 407 .089 .794 .336 .266 .332 .441 5.39
rowand,aaron 120 .070 .875 .322 .282 .332 .432 5.38
cruz,deivi 338 .017 .923 .321 .297 .309 .453 5.38
williams,matt 134 .113 .806 .328 .265 .347 .421 5.38
helms,wes 346 .101 .734 .347 .255 .330 .446 5.33
ramirez,aramis 394 .075 .827 .330 .273 .328 .438 5.33
santiago,benito 256 .062 .844 .328 .277 .322 .441 5.31
durham,ray 319 .121 .803 .326 .262 .351 .412 5.30
olerud,john 331 .142 .894 .306 .273 .377 .376 5.27
surhoff,b.j. 202 .056 .941 .311 .292 .332 .416 5.26
matsui,hideki 420 .081 .860 .321 .276 .335 .421 5.26
lecroy,matthew 193 .063 .762 .347 .264 .310 .461 5.25
burks,ellis 198 .132 .768 .331 .254 .352 .411 5.24
lieberthal,mike 316 .097 .889 .313 .278 .348 .401 5.22
garcia,karim 138 .048 .797 .340 .271 .306 .460 5.22
spivey,junior 223 .086 .758 .342 .259 .323 .443 5.22
loretta,mark 373 .092 .901 .311 .280 .347 .401 5.22
davis,ben 165 .088 .758 .341 .259 .324 .440 5.20
grace,mark 117 .114 .897 .308 .277 .359 .388 5.19
sierra,ruben 245 .086 .841 .323 .271 .334 .418 5.18
loduca,paul 372 .093 .895 .312 .279 .346 .400 5.17
batista,tony 391 .051 .821 .333 .274 .311 .448 5.17
kinkade,mike 139 .131 .791 .325 .257 .355 .401 5.17
jimenez,d'angel 340 .103 .832 .321 .267 .343 .409 5.16
casey,sean 385 .083 .901 .312 .281 .341 .403 5.16
martinez,ramon 171 .100 .865 .315 .273 .346 .402 5.16
giambi,jeremy 123 .185 .675 .342 .231 .373 .393 5.15
blake,casey 340 .086 .809 .329 .266 .329 .425 5.15
zeile,todd 178 .114 .803 .325 .261 .346 .407 5.14
alfonzo,edgardo 338 .103 .929 .304 .282 .357 .383 5.14
long,terrence 332 .067 .864 .321 .277 .326 .422 5.14
hollandsworth,t 209 .083 .756 .342 .258 .320 .440 5.13
simon,randall 258 .041 .903 .317 .286 .315 .426 5.08
biggio,craig 416 .103 .815 .323 .264 .340 .408 5.08
merced,orlando 161 .080 .876 .315 .276 .334 .407 5.07
jordan,brian 224 .108 .866 .313 .271 .349 .391 5.06
aurilia,rich 353 .066 .864 .320 .276 .324 .418 5.05
blum,geoff 304 .059 .878 .318 .279 .322 .417 5.03
hairston,jerry 157 .147 .879 .304 .267 .375 .363 5.01
ventura,robin 277 .121 .783 .326 .255 .345 .399 4.99
alomar,sandy 114 .026 .930 .313 .291 .310 .423 4.99
hafner,travis 130 .078 .723 .349 .252 .311 .445 4.98
suzuki,ichiro 436 .058 .901 .313 .282 .324 .408 4.97
gonzalez,raul 122 .129 .844 .312 .263 .358 .378 4.96
wooten,shawn 147 .093 .850 .316 .269 .337 .398 4.95
konerko,paul 270 .082 .889 .311 .276 .336 .395 4.94
jeter,derek 269 .106 .803 .323 .259 .338 .401 4.94
moeller,chad 212 .090 .755 .337 .254 .322 .424 4.94
matos,luis 225 .066 .818 .327 .268 .316 .423 4.93
monroe,craig 249 .074 .767 .337 .259 .314 .431 4.93
kendall,jason 379 .121 .921 .300 .276 .364 .363 4.93
cairo,miguel 161 .058 .882 .315 .278 .320 .408 4.89
roberts,brian 235 .103 .877 .309 .271 .346 .381 4.89
vizquel,omar 231 .105 .913 .303 .277 .352 .372 4.89
uribe,juan 184 .080 .826 .322 .266 .325 .407 4.86
witt,kevin 175 .059 .777 .336 .261 .305 .432 4.81
crede,joe 337 .074 .843 .318 .268 .322 .402 4.78
calloway,ron 231 .061 .766 .337 .259 .304 .432 4.77
estalella,bobby 126 .131 .611 .366 .223 .325 .422 4.77
guillen,carlos 265 .117 .830 .313 .260 .346 .377 4.76
grieve,ben 165 .187 .752 .317 .238 .381 .353 4.76
wilson,craig 161 .120 .683 .346 .236 .328 .410 4.75
young,michael 418 .052 .837 .323 .270 .308 .416 4.75
castillo,luis 391 .097 .913 .302 .276 .346 .368 4.74
franco,julio 144 .111 .813 .317 .257 .340 .382 4.73
zaun,gregg 101 .122 .891 .302 .269 .358 .358 4.72
burroughs,sean 327 .089 .838 .316 .264 .330 .390 4.72
phelps,josh 260 .119 .692 .343 .237 .328 .406 4.72
castro,juan 201 .038 .831 .326 .271 .299 .425 4.70
counsell,craig 185 .140 .886 .299 .265 .368 .346 4.68
beltre,adrian 342 .078 .819 .320 .262 .320 .396 4.63
bell,david 293 .131 .870 .302 .263 .359 .352 4.63
wigginton,ty 387 .072 .801 .324 .260 .313 .405 4.62
higginson,bobby 280 .122 .846 .307 .260 .350 .360 4.59
ellis,mark 347 .101 .824 .314 .259 .334 .377 4.58
wilson,vance 213 .066 .812 .322 .262 .310 .403 4.57
macias,jose 180 .063 .833 .319 .266 .311 .399 4.57
morris,warren 158 .060 .899 .307 .276 .319 .384 4.57
jones,jacque 339 .034 .788 .334 .263 .288 .431 4.55
harvey,ken 324 .064 .784 .328 .257 .304 .408 4.52
woodward,chris 281 .079 .794 .323 .256 .315 .395 4.51
kennedy,adam 258 .101 .829 .312 .258 .333 .371 4.50
rivera,juan 114 .066 .868 .310 .270 .317 .384 4.50
olivo,miguel 213 .074 .793 .324 .257 .312 .398 4.50
baldelli,rocco 403 .047 .797 .328 .261 .296 .415 4.49
everett,adam 208 .071 .822 .318 .261 .314 .391 4.49
bordick,mike 175 .074 .800 .322 .257 .312 .395 4.48
perez,timo 169 .082 .893 .303 .271 .330 .366 4.47
vizcaino,jose 143 .040 .867 .314 .273 .302 .398 4.47
norton,greg 139 .086 .784 .323 .253 .317 .390 4.46
overbay,lyle 227 .130 .736 .324 .239 .338 .371 4.44
grudzielanek,ma 383 .079 .867 .307 .266 .325 .371 4.43
mayne,brent 234 .082 .868 .307 .266 .327 .369 4.43
clayton,royce 337 .097 .810 .315 .255 .327 .374 4.43
chavez,endy 352 .046 .884 .310 .274 .307 .387 4.42
segui,david 224 .108 .790 .316 .250 .331 .371 4.41
hudson,orlando 317 .086 .817 .315 .257 .321 .377 4.41
dellucci,david 165 .118 .727 .328 .238 .328 .378 4.39
difelice,mike 136 .056 .824 .319 .263 .304 .395 4.39
eckstein,david 345 .102 .901 .298 .268 .343 .347 4.38
larkin,barry 192 .086 .880 .303 .267 .330 .361 4.38
ginter,keith 183 .103 .738 .328 .242 .320 .384 4.37
anderson,marlon 310 .086 .861 .306 .264 .327 .364 4.35
byrd,marlon 247 .105 .781 .317 .248 .327 .369 4.34
podsednik,scott 328 .101 .835 .307 .257 .332 .357 4.31
stinnett,kelly 142 .072 .754 .329 .248 .302 .396 4.29
rollins,jimmy 414 .070 .824 .314 .259 .310 .377 4.26
greene,todd 121 .024 .736 .343 .253 .271 .434 4.25
clark,brady 161 .064 .876 .305 .267 .314 .367 4.25
derosa,mark 156 .077 .788 .319 .252 .309 .380 4.24
o'leary,troy 132 .083 .833 .309 .258 .320 .364 4.23
alomar,roberto 332 .112 .861 .300 .258 .342 .340 4.22
winn,randy 381 .080 .824 .311 .256 .316 .367 4.20
gomez,chris 134 .029 .918 .303 .278 .299 .375 4.20
kotsay,mark 294 .109 .833 .304 .254 .335 .346 4.19
vazquez,ramon 266 .122 .812 .306 .248 .340 .342 4.19
kapler,gabe 112 .097 .786 .315 .248 .320 .364 4.18
pierre,juan 435 .088 .945 .290 .274 .338 .332 4.18
miller,damian 240 .111 .733 .323 .237 .322 .366 4.17
berg,dave 101 .047 .792 .323 .256 .291 .394 4.16
perez,neifi 221 .035 .932 .299 .279 .304 .365 4.16
valentin,javier 104 .037 .769 .330 .254 .281 .408 4.15
crisp,coco 177 .059 .893 .302 .269 .312 .360 4.15
cedeno,roger 273 .078 .821 .311 .255 .313 .365 4.15
mohr,dustan 264 .080 .705 .336 .237 .298 .392 4.13
singleton,chris 209 .067 .842 .309 .260 .309 .365 4.12
nady,xavier 332 .070 .807 .314 .254 .306 .371 4.11
belliard,ronnie 283 .107 .816 .306 .250 .330 .345 4.11
rolls,damian 180 .063 .778 .322 .250 .297 .384 4.11
diaz,einar 239 .063 .887 .301 .267 .313 .355 4.10
wilson,tom 192 .094 .661 .343 .227 .300 .388 4.06
blanco,henry 104 .071 .875 .301 .264 .316 .350 4.06
reboulet,jeff 155 .124 .800 .305 .244 .338 .334 4.04
rivas,luis 285 .078 .842 .305 .257 .315 .352 4.02
palmeiro,orland 219 .102 .904 .292 .264 .339 .323 4.02
mirabelli,doug 118 .033 .780 .326 .254 .278 .398 4.01
wilson,jack 352 .069 .861 .303 .261 .312 .352 4.01
torrealba,yorvi 145 .052 .800 .317 .254 .293 .378 4.00
cirillo,jeff 248 .101 .879 .295 .260 .335 .328 4.00
hocking,denny 104 .071 .769 .319 .246 .300 .371 3.97
reyes,jose 147 .020 .884 .306 .271 .285 .373 3.93
matheny,mike 308 .094 .812 .306 .248 .319 .343 3.93
inge,brandon 167 .092 .731 .322 .235 .306 .361 3.90
laker,tim 117 .033 .761 .327 .249 .274 .394 3.88
hart,bo 151 .068 .808 .310 .251 .302 .357 3.88
bloomquist,will 126 .100 .810 .304 .246 .321 .333 3.83
martin,al 171 .081 .801 .308 .247 .308 .346 3.82
sanchez,alex 372 .044 .860 .304 .262 .294 .356 3.82
barajas,rod 145 .040 .793 .318 .252 .282 .376 3.82
erstad,darin 229 .073 .852 .301 .256 .310 .339 3.82
mclemore,mark 212 .113 .774 .308 .238 .324 .332 3.82
womack,tony 251 .042 .876 .302 .264 .295 .352 3.81
matthews,gary 330 .073 .821 .306 .251 .306 .345 3.80
roberts,dave 228 .092 .912 .288 .263 .330 .311 3.76
christenson,rya 116 .115 .750 .309 .232 .320 .327 3.67
lugo,julio 280 .082 .786 .308 .242 .304 .338 3.67
halter,shane 217 .057 .760 .318 .242 .285 .362 3.66
gil,geronimo 157 .087 .809 .302 .244 .310 .327 3.63
osik,keith 162 .129 .815 .295 .240 .338 .302 3.62
perez,tomas 157 .065 .803 .307 .246 .296 .342 3.62
merloni,lou 111 .140 .748 .304 .227 .335 .308 3.61
cora,alex 324 .053 .855 .300 .256 .295 .337 3.61
kingsale,gene 120 .077 .858 .295 .253 .311 .320 3.60
hansen,dave 100 .167 .830 .287 .238 .365 .278 3.60
santiago,ramon 268 .095 .843 .294 .248 .319 .312 3.58
guzman,cristian 377 .043 .857 .300 .257 .289 .340 3.57
bellhorn,mark 209 .167 .689 .309 .213 .344 .299 3.53
bard,josh 206 .072 .801 .304 .244 .298 .331 3.52
phillips,brando 300 .042 .813 .307 .250 .281 .346 3.50
carroll,jamey 149 .086 .832 .296 .246 .311 .313 3.49
ausmus,brad 295 .087 .868 .290 .251 .316 .302 3.45
glanville,doug 188 .031 .872 .297 .259 .282 .334 3.44
shinjo,tsuyoshi 114 .058 .895 .290 .259 .302 .312 3.43
hernandez,jose 347 .084 .634 .336 .213 .280 .355 3.40
guzman,edwards 113 .034 .894 .293 .262 .287 .324 3.40
bautista,danny 181 .067 .829 .298 .247 .297 .319 3.39
mcdonald,john 152 .050 .842 .297 .251 .288 .323 3.35
dye,jermaine 150 .096 .800 .297 .237 .311 .304 3.35
wilson,dan 199 .048 .824 .301 .248 .284 .328 3.35
fordyce,brook 185 .061 .843 .295 .249 .294 .314 3.32
harris,lenny 129 .092 .853 .289 .246 .315 .293 3.30
lopez,felipe 197 .128 .701 .308 .216 .316 .302 3.29
tatis,fernando 175 .107 .771 .298 .230 .313 .299 3.28
mcewing,joe 156 .098 .776 .299 .232 .307 .302 3.27
bako,paul 110 .091 .755 .304 .229 .299 .311 3.26
bennett,gary 181 .072 .829 .294 .244 .298 .304 3.24
nunez,abraham_o 167 .092 .790 .297 .235 .305 .300 3.24
crawford,carl 370 .051 .795 .303 .241 .280 .325 3.23
owens,eric 141 .034 .894 .289 .258 .284 .308 3.18
goodwin,tom 134 .050 .828 .296 .245 .283 .312 3.16
mccracken,quint 157 .065 .841 .290 .244 .294 .295 3.09
easley,damion 107 .018 .832 .299 .248 .262 .323 3.04
izturis,cesar 360 .045 .864 .289 .249 .283 .297 3.02
torres,andres 132 .050 .803 .297 .239 .277 .307 3.01
robinson,kerry 110 .018 .900 .287 .259 .272 .304 3.01
sanchez,rey 174 .044 .897 .282 .253 .286 .282 2.91
febles,carlos 183 .090 .847 .282 .239 .307 .266 2.90
liefer,jeff 100 .038 .670 .324 .217 .247 .337 2.87
infante,omar 202 .082 .827 .283 .234 .297 .264 2.76
taylor,reggie 120 .063 .583 .338 .197 .247 .331 2.75
gil,benji 121 .032 .736 .305 .224 .249 .307 2.66
bragg,darren 102 .073 .784 .287 .225 .282 .265 2.60
walbeck,matt 111 .026 .793 .289 .229 .250 .274 2.40
reese,pokey 107 .078 .710 .292 .207 .269 .254 2.32
harris,willie 109 .044 .798 .283 .226 .260 .253 2.29
mateo,henry 100 .038 .810 .280 .227 .257 .247 2.21
ward,daryle 109 .027 .826 .276 .228 .249 .237 2.06

reggie taylor: 50 strikeouts in 120 ab. that's hard to do. the other surprising thing is there are 7 worse hitters than him.
Saturday, July 26, 2003
 
carlos baerga .056 .921 .324
from baseball prospectus:

this analysis is based on bad numbers, but it is mostly correct. the .379 and .314 are small sample sizes, and in between he took two years off. so the last meaningful slg he put up was 1998. those things were considered, but not mentioned, in the analysis. the people at bp have enough experience with slugging percentage to know that .484 is high enough, after this much playing time, to mean something is up.

baerga's con and pow are higher than they've been since 1996, which was an unlucky age 27 year. at this point, we've got to suspect there's something real there. but after 152 ab, it's likely that that .921 and .324 are both at least a little high, and even if they're not, his avg should be .298, not .323. this is one old diamondback that's not gonna work out.
Friday, July 25, 2003
 
pete rose
i don't know what the fuss is all about; pete rose is in the hall of fame. he has more hits than anyone ever. don't tell me that's not the hall of fame.

what's that you say? there's a building in cooperstown that doesn't have his name on a placque? look at these numbers!

age yr g ab h wal con pow avg/obp/slg pav/pob/psl hus warp
22 1963 157 623 170 .088 .884 .305 .273/.334/.371 .269/.334/.367 4 4.4
23 1964 136 516 139 .069 .901 .291 .269/.319/.326 .262/.313/.318 7 2.8
24 1965 162 670 209 .103 .887 .316 .312/.382/.446 .280/.355/.415 32 8.1
25 1966 156 654 205 .055 .907 .319 .313/.351/.460 .289/.328/.436 24 6.7
26 1967 148 585 176 .092 .887 .319 .301/.364/.444 .283/.349/.427 18 7.5
27 1968 149 626 210 .087 .879 .317 .335/.391/.470 .278/.341/.412 57 9.9
28 1969 156 627 218 .129 .896 .325 .348/.428/.512 .292/.383/.456 56 10.7
29 1970 159 649 205 .104 .901 .322 .316/.385/.470 .290/.364/.444 26 8.8
30 1971 160 632 192 .101 .921 .309 .304/.373/.421 .285/.357/.402 19 8.5
31 1972 154 645 198 .110 .929 .307 .307/.382/.417 .285/.364/.395 22 11.5
32 1973 160 680 230 .095 .938 .303 .338/.401/.437 .284/.352/.383 54 10.9
33 1974 163 652 185 .145 .917 .305 .284/.385/.388 .280/.385/.384 4 9.4
34 1975 162 662 210 .131 .924 .308 .317/.406/.432 .285/.379/.400 32 6.8
35 1976 162 665 215 .122 .919 .312 .323/.404/.450 .287/.374/.413 36 8.5
36 1977 162 655 204 .098 .936 .310 .311/.377/.432 .290/.359/.410 22 5.2
37 1978 159 655 198 .090 .954 .309 .302/.362/.421 .294/.358/.414 8 5.9
38 1979 163 628 208 .134 .949 .303 .331/.418/.430 .287/.383/.386 44 6.4
39 1980 162 655 185 .099 .950 .295 .282/.352/.354 .280/.351/.351 3 3.5
40 1981 107 431 140 .102 .940 .293 .325/.391/.390 .275/.349/.340 50 3.5
41 1982 162 634 172 .103 .950 .293 .271/.345/.338 .278/.353/.344 -7 2.4
42 1983 151 493 121 .099 .943 .285 .245/.316/.286 .269/.341/.310 -24 0.6
43 1984 121 374 107 .103 .928 .289 .365/.430/.458 .280/.343/.331 6 2.7
44 1985 119 405 107 .182 .914 .290 .264/.395/.319 .265/.399/.319 -1 2.5
45 1986 72 237 52 .125 .869 .290 .219/.316/.270 .252/.346/.302 -32 0.1
total 4256

when he dies, they will put that placque on the wall. and he knows it. they might as well go ahead and do it. he's as good as dead to us, anyway.

in honor of the late hit king, i have invented a new stat. it's called hustle, or hus, and it is the amount by which a player's batting average exceeds his predicted batting average (pba). notice that pete's are always high. that's cause he hustled. also his contact is the highest i've ever seen.

the last column is wins above replacement position, a metric invented by clay davenport. it measures how many more games a team won than they would have with a typical replacement. anything over 10 is mvp-quality.
 
in your face, flanders!
jay jaffe of futility infielder wrote a highly positive review of my wal con pow system. jay you are the best!

this is very exciting. when i started this blog (just a month ago!) i had no idea anyone would wanna read it. now i feel like i have people i can exchange ideas with. together we can make baseball better for everyone.

also seeing my words on someone else's page has encouraged me to go back and do a tighter edit.

jay had some questions, which i'll answer here:

1. the evidence right now is at the level of "strong suspicion". what happened was i started paying attention to these numbers over the past few years in an attempt to predict performance for my fantasy team. what i noticed was that after about 100 ab for wal & con, 300 ab for pow, the numbers don't change.

i need to build a database. once that happens i'll have rigorous answers to all kinds of things. the problem right now is i don't have a computer! i've been blogging mostly at a university computer lab or at friends' houses.

2. major league averages came from 2002 data. i should note that on the site.

3. yes. that and more. all kinds of things will follow from the building of the database. for example, it's clear that there are players who consistently outperform their predicted average. all who do are slap-and-run speedsters. i've got ideas for a speed factor that i think will correct the predictions for speedsters. also i plan to tighten pow up a little bit, using recent years to dampen the variance. and i want to do a historical study to see at what age each each of the various skills peaks. right now it seems that con peaks early, around 23, pow peaks around 28 (although some players (bonds) can still increase at late ages. typically they are power/speed types (like bonds)), and wal increases throughout the career. with that data it will be possible to determine a player's future career path with quite a bit of precision.

. . . should i have said "those data"? i know data is plural, but it sounds so weird.

i'm a little giddy right now. i'll write more when i calm down.
Thursday, July 24, 2003
 
baseball news
what a great blog! now i don't have to deal with espn.com's bullshit anymore because he links every rob neyer column. also i don't have to read baseball prospectus because he summarizes their arguments. not fully, but enough to know i don't care. i got a new first surf spot.
 
how to philosophize with a hammer
tom verducci of si is a typical idiot sports columnist. i don't know why i read his column, but i did, so now i have to smash it to tiny pieces.

whatever he starts off with some stuff about how barry bonds is an asshole. what else is new?

then there are some letters regarding the hall of fame:


the bbwaa probably thinks the order of greatness is this: gonzo sheff martinez. actually, they got it backwards. edmart has had one great season after another, and deserves to be the first dh in the hall of fame. harold baines sure as hell don't. gary has been great for a long time, but he hasn't been noticed because of injuries and pitcher's parks. he's the borderline one. and juan gone, despite the cool nickname, has been one of the most overrated players of his generation. he didn't deserve either of the mvp's he won. he played in a hitter's park and was an out machine. but those are the players the writers love.

the 500-hr club is not a magic number anymore. so many active players will reach it that it will lose its meaning.

here's the other one:


he's mostly correct here, but he stops short of saying anything. thomas and griffey are already in the hall. and mattingly is just another overrated yankee. and frank---not can---is coming back with a good season.

the next letter is about tom glavine. why did tom go to the mets? didn't he know they suck? look, first of all, baseball players don't think about who sucks. teams change all the time. sometimes they suck and sometimes they're good. he went to the mets because the mets paid him. the braves weren't going to, so he had to leave.

instead of reporting the truth, verducci tries to be a psychologist, which is laughable. glavine felt more comfortable around the old players, he says. glavine wants to make the hall. glavine blah blah blah, blah blah blah. some of these things may be true, but they're not the reason he moved. the reason he moved was he needed a job. this is not an uncommon event in people's lives. when you need a job, you look at your offers, and you decide where you want to live. i'd rather live in new york than philadelphia, too.

then there are some other letters that are either vacuously correct or noncommittal. why do people read this crap? is there nothing better? there's definitely better stuff. maybe they're too lazy to find it. or maybe they think the si or the espn.com next to the name makes them important.

i'm gonna shut up now.

note to nietzsche fans: you may think the twilight of the idols reference is incorrect, with the "tiny pieces" comment. think again.
 
plague of injuries
aziz from atlanta:

that's some list. one thing to notice is most of these players are on the wrong side of 30, with the heart-wrenching case of corey patterson the notable exception. it certainly does seem like there are more over-30 stars than there used to be. i know bill james has studied the issue. has anyone done it recently?

the nl grandpa concentration suggests that the apty-named junior circuit will soon take over. it's like the cycle of chinese dynasties. ok maybe not but look at all the teams loaded with tiny mashers: oakland toronto minnesota cleveland. oh yeah the royals. gotta give 'em props. and even the orioles and devil rays have some people. (yes those devil rays.)

prediction: next year, the rays beat the o's. earth-shattering, i know.

hide the children! we don't know what he's capable of!
 
i just traded for randy johnson in my fantasy league
woohoo!

stay healthy, randy!
 
baseball v. sabermetrics
steve from oregon:

thanks for the kind words, steve. but i think you're taking my arguments farther than i would. zito mulder hudson chavez tejada (and now byrnes) is some ridiculous luck, but when you build the kind of farm system the a's have, you get more lucky than other teams. so it's a little of both. one thing i'm trying to do here is meld the understanding that baseball people have with the things statistics can tell us. numbers people sometimes say things that are flat wrong, as anyone who played the game knows. but they also sometimes find value where others wouldn't. my goal is to find ways to communicate those values to people without a statistics degree, and also to tell number crunchers when they're idiots. i hope you'll keep reading and let me know how i do.
 
fantasy advice
felix from stuttgart:

that's a close one, felix. garcia millwood i would say ip w era will be similar, with millwood better on k/9, whip. wells and dunn i like a lot, although obviously giles is one of the baddest muthafuckas on the planet.

if you have a slot you need to fill, do it, but you're giving up the two best guys in the trade.

actually i would keep mill & giles and pick up aaron guiel, who is mashing in kansas city.
Wednesday, July 23, 2003
 
matt morris is hurt
yeah yeah it's not news anymore. but the cardinals are done. astros win the central. wild card? d-backs. larry bowa's gonna get fired.
 
rob neyer wrote a column about the wants and needs of this year's contenders. it's good, as usual. here are my comments:

first, the a's:

this is nitpicky, but it is not the case that the a's worship at the twin altars of on-base percentage and slugging percentage. the a's worship at the altar of underappreciated value. this year, it's defense. the a's have the best defense in the majors. it helps that they have 3 center fielders in the outfield. and scott hatteberg is a swiffer at first (get it? everything sticks!)

what? those are the 3 positions neyer said need help. ok, but he's still right, sort of. the a's need one more hitter. who'da thunk it? then singleton can be the fourth outfielder. that's still a lot of playing time.

incidentally, what's wrong with hatteberg? he currently sports a .256/.339/.372 avg/obp/slg. is he dead?

hatteberg,scott 324 .115 .898 .311 .280/.362/.400 5.43

no, he's just resting.

tejada and chavez have also been unlucky:

chavez,eric 323 .098 .836 .347 .290/.359/.507 6.92
tejada,miguel 375 .074 .909 .330 .300/.352/.481 6.53

compare that to .258/.332/.475 and .249/.307/.423, respectively.

hell, let's run the whole team:

hernandez,ramon 275 .086 .840 .336 .282/.344/.468 6.05
durazo,erubiel 304 .174 .816 .333 .271/.398/.443 6.53
ellis,mark 309 .104 .819 .318 .260/.338/.390 4.80
byrnes,eric 301 .099 .860 .345 .296/.366/.512 7.20
long,terrence 291 .067 .866 .324 .280/.329/.435 5.37
singleton,chris 183 .066 .836 .310 .259/.309/.369 4.15

everyone has had bad luck but singleton. he's .279/.321/.386. that streches your meaning of good luck. oops durazo has been lucky by .021 of ops. sorry. long has had the worst of it, at .252/.300/.404.

this team will score more runs. their park is a canyon, but it don't matter. the a's will win the west. and the red sox will win the east (sox fans hate me right now.) sadly, i don't think the mariners will take the wild card (now yankee fans hate me too. assuming they caught the slight. ooh! i'm gonna pay for that!)

so i guess we're gonna have to let beane rule the world. that's not an attractive prospect. come to think of it, he couldn't do much worse than those currently in power. . . .

don't tell anybody i said that.

about the expos, rob says ". . . they're terrible at three spots: third base (Fernando Tatis), catcher (Michael Barrett), and center field (Endy Chavez). I think at least two of those guys will improve, . . ."

ok, which one?

tatis,fernando 175 .107 .771 .298 .230/.313/.299 3.28
barrett,michael 169 .096 .834 .336 .280/.349/.463 6.07
chavez,endy 327 .044 .887 .309 .274/.306/.388 4.41

the answer is . . . all of them. although in tatis's case, he still shouldn't be on the team. improving a .194 avg will not impress anyone. but chavez is at .251/.285/.359, and should go up. and barrett, at .199/.268/.382, has got to start praying to a new god, because the one he has ain't workin'. i suggest baal.

michael barrett is one of the top 6 catchers in the league. and i'm not saying that because i've had him on 3 fantasy teams (no, not last year, and no, not 1999. i'm not bitter. why do you think i'm bitter?)

piazza,mike 111 .133 .865 .365 .316/.407/.595 9.54
lopez,javy 261 .068 .808 .389 .315/.361/.644 9.16
rodriguez,ivan 293 .112 .816 .348 .284/.364/.499 6.85
hammock,robby 103 .046 .816 .354 .289/.322/.522 6.38
larue,jason 205 .128 .707 .363 .257/.352/.481 6.16
barrett,michael 169 .096 .834 .336 .280/.349/.463 6.07

robby hammock probably is not that good. that pow is suspect with that sample size. and there's a big dropoff after #2(javy lopez!). but there it is. if you count piazza and hammock each as 1/2, then barrett's #5. next is his teammate, brian schneider.

next comment, braves pitching:

era . . . you just can't do anything with it. the implication here is that aside from reynolds, the staff is good.

what do you think?

maddux,greg 126.1 .050 .852 4.70 5.56
ortiz,ramon 112.1 .083 .871 5.32 5.37
ramirez,horacio 99 .096 .846 5.21 4.55
hampton,mike 91 .118 .849 5.55 5.54
reynolds,shane 94 .095 .865 5.41 5.74

the second-to-last number is predicted run average. the last number is actual run average (pre-all-star break). so maddux is the best starter. but he's not great. and the rest of these guys are chumps. the braves could really use a front-line starter in the playoffs. it wouldn't hurt for the regular season, either. but front-line starters don't grow on trees. who made up the term "front-line starter", anyway?

that's all the time i have for today. tomorrow, reader mail.
 
it's been a week since i posted stats. am i gonna update them? no! players don't change in a week. i got more important shit to do.
 
i forgot to put in that last post that i think matt bruback is a little better than ben does and i also say no way is aramis ramirez gonna make it.

you know what i take it back about bruback. but not ramirez:

ramirez,aramis 354 .081 .819 .330 .270/.329/.434 5.29

his contact will soon become untenable and unless he juices his power won't be high enough. he won't make it because third base is now a hitter's position. this is the year. look for the article soon.
 
trades! hey, trades!
ben jacobs over at universal wrote a good article on yesterday's trades.

the trades were:
1. pittsburgh ramirez lofton $$$ to cubs for hernandez bruback ptbn
2. pittsburgh sauerbeck gonzalez to cubs for lyon martinez (anastacio, not pedro)
3. san diego orosco to yankees for something.

my comments:
1. pittsburgh wins
2 & 3. who cares (that's basically what ben says, but he backs it up with intelligent analysis. i can't tell you what a pleasure it is to read a baseball article and see stats that have meaning. he says he works at a newspaper. i hope they let him write. ben, what do you do over there? computers? they probably won't let you write. they can't replace you.)

---ed. note: ben says he does write, but no column, only local coverage. we're rootin' for ya, ben!

back to (1). everybody says cubs win but ben says not so fast! his main points are yeah ramirez had that good 2001 but he's sucked since and he gets $3 mil this year $6 mil next year. so unless that cash is a pile the cubs are bitches. he also says lofton hernandez bruback . . . (yawn) and whoever that ptbn is he's gravy. i saw on rotoworld that it might be bobby hill but now i can't find the link. plus my browser crashed. fuckers.

anyway if it is bobby hill it's a serious ass-raping. sorry about that image. you can move the hyphen to between "serious" and "ass" if you want. i guess that doesn't make it much better. i like ben's cool blue backgrounds with white text. it's very pleasing. it hurts the eyes to stare at a glaring white screen all day. maybe i'll change my look.
Tuesday, July 22, 2003
 
bobby hill (AAA) 327 .094 .823 .316 .260/.330/.386 4.65
spring, 2002, bobby hill was a hot prospect. he had a shot at the starting 2b job. the trib did a feature on him. he got sent down.

spring, 2003, bobby hill was a hot prospect. he competed with mark grudzielanek for the starting job. he got sent down.

was he over-hyped or unlucky?

a little of both. but he sure as hell beats grudzielanek:

grudzielanek,mark 339 .084 .861 .305 .263/.325/.360 4.28

hill has a better eye and better power. plus he's 25, and will improve.

bobby hill, 2002 190 .082 .779 .317 .247/.309/.368 4.08

that was last year. the year he was a bust. but he was almost as good as cruddy-lanek, and he was 24. he's better than that now. the cubs can't see it.

he'll be above major-league average starting next year, followed by a nice peak, then a slide into obscurity. oh wait, it's the cubs. they'll sign him to a giant multi-year contract.
 
i read moneyball, by michael lewis, and it's a great book. he's a good storyteller, and it helps to spread the gospel of baseball truth. it fights the perceived importance of stats like batting average and era, and tells those who didn't know already to read as much bill james as possible. it tells you who's smart and who's stupid in baseball, and how things really work on the inside. it's entertaining. it's well-researched. it's well-organized.

but it's a bad baseball book.

the problem is michael lewis doesn't know anything. worse, he doesn't know anything and he pretends like he knows everything. he talks up and down about how baseball commentators are idiots, then has long passages where he sounds like one. he rails against assigning meaning to things that cannot be measured, then goes on and on about mental aspects of the game. to him, scouts are the three stooges, and a guy with a computer is the savior. the reality is that both are helpful and important.

you see, he's got this whole hero-worship thing going. billy beane is the star of the show, the wunderkind, who waves his magic wand and wins baseball games. what he is is someone who has an understanding of the game and a talent for deal-making. the whole book is like that: larger-than-life. lewis even sensationalizes beane the asshole. i'm sure beane's an asshole, but he's probably just a regular asshole like everyone else.

so there's the good guys and the bad guys. the good guys do regression analysis; the bad guys sit around and spit tobacco. the good guys are here to save baseball from these morons who are trying to ruin it.

he sounds like he knows a lot about finance. i don't know about finance but i believe he does. so he takes these things he's learned about finance and applies them to baseball. great, that's going to add to what we know. people in finance will especially appreciate it. but don't act like you know everything, michael, because you don't.

billy beane 301 .035 .735 .303 .222/.250/.299 2.59

career, 1984--1989. he struck out too much. and didn't walk enough. and didn't hit the ball hard.
Wednesday, July 16, 2003
 
i love my blog. and i love my readers. especially you.
 
holy shit i forgot to write about rickey henderson
i can't believe it took this long for someone to realize he has value. kudos to the dodgers. since when do i say "kudos"?

in honor of the greatest leadoff hitter ever, let's run his career:

yr tm ab wal con pow avg/obp/slg rc/27 sb-cs
1979 oak 351 .088 .889 .293 .261/.326/.323 3.85 33-11
1980 oak 591 .165 .909 .303 .276/.395/.372 5.48 100-26
1981 oak 423 .131 .839 .313 .263/.360/.381 5.02 56-22
1982 oak 536 .178 .825 .313 .258/.390/.374 5.31 130-42
1983 oak 513 .167 .844 .316 .267/.390/.396 5.68 108-19
1984 oak 502 .146 .839 .329 .276/.382/.441 6.29 66-18
1985 nyy 547 .153 .881 .338 .298/.405/.499 7.78 80-10
1986 nyy 608 .128 .867 .341 .295/.385/.501 7.39 87-18
1987 nyy 358 .183 .855 .342 .292/.422/.499 8.02 41-8
1988 nyy 554 .129 .903 .303 .273/.367/.367 5.00 93-13
1989 n/o 541 .189 .874 .314 .275/.412/.400 6.13 77-14
1990 oak 489 .166 .877 .355 .311/.425/.563 9.38 65-10
1991 oak 470 .173 .845 .325 .275/.400/.430 6.41 58-18
1992 oak 396 .193 .859 .331 .284/.423/.458 7.30 48-11
1993 o/t 481 .200 .865 .334 .289/.431/.474 7.75 53-8
1994 oak 296 .196 .848 .308 .291/.406/.366 5.43 22-7
1995 oak 407 .150 .838 .323 .271/.380/.418 5.89 32-10
1996 sdp 465 .212 .806 .309 .250/.409/.353 5.19 37-15
1997 a/s 403 .194 .789 .307 .242/.389/.337 4.67 45-8
1998 oak 542 .179 .790 .313 .247/.382/.358 4.90 66-13
1999 nym 438 .158 .813 .326 .265/.381/.416 5.81 37-14
2000 s/n 420 .173 .821 .298 .245/.375/.316 4.24 36-11
2001 sdp 379 .176 .778 .318 .248/.380/.372 5.08 25-7
2002 bos 179 .175 .737 .323 .238/.371/.366 4.82 8-2

we all know he's the all-time career leader in walks, runs, and stolen bases. he's also the active career leader in hits (3,040). and he has 295 home runs. my favorite record of his is home runs to lead off a game. he's got like 60, where second place is 30 or so. someone look that up for me.

other things to bear in mind:

1. he played in a low-offense time ('til '93), in mostly pitcher's parks.

2. those rc/27's are strictly masher numbers (look at 1990 . . . zounds!) he's one of the few players in history whose baserunning had a significant effect on his value. his career stolen base rate is 81%! overall, he created 101 runs just from base stealing. that's another .33 you can add to his rc/27 every year.

3. that 130 stolen bases in 1982 is the record.

4. oakland coliseum in the early 80's was the toughest place to steal a base in the history of baseball.

"I always felt this day would come. I'm happy that the Dodgers gave me this opportunity to continue playing baseball. … Whatever role they want me to play, I'm willing to play to help this team win."

he's still playing, and he's already immortal.
 
what a surprise
from the associated press:

CHICAGO -- The Montreal Expos could play their entire home schedule in Puerto Rico next season under a plan being considered by major league baseball.

i didn't see that coming. did you? nobody did. this is straight out of left field.

kidding aside, they should do it. they'd have to move the fences back in hiram bithorn. and put in grass. otherwise they're chumps. oh, wait a minute . . .
 
it makes sense that people like avg hr rbi. it's easy, and it gives you an approximate read on a player's contact and power abilities. but con and pow do those things precisely. add walk percentage and you have the whole picture.
 
you know, the yankees have serious weaknesses that people aren't really talking about. they're old and injury-prone, and they play terrible defense. and derek jeter sucks. don't be surprised if the red sox take the division. remember, you heard it here first.
 
alfonso soriano is among the league leaders in many categories. people take that to be a preponderance of evidence and trumpet his excellence. but it's because he gets so many at-bats.

soriano,alfonso 407 .077 .813 .350 .284/.340/.503 6.44

soriano makes contact, and hits for power, but he needs to walk more to be great. that will reduce his at-bats, of course, taking him off the leaderboards. but it will help in the most important category: wins.
 
the all-star break is almost over. thank god!
 
i was almost finished with my blue jays article when my browser crashed. i don't have the heart to write it again. it was crappy anyway. main points: lineup good (no dogs), rotation ok, bullpen bad. vernon wells is a motherfucker; halladay's a horse; scott service was a steal (off waivers from the diamondbacks). escobar's gonna work out, so is lopez (aquilino), once he gets his walks down.

that's about it. jp ricciardi is smart.

instead i'm gonna write about the fleecing of the twins. shannon stewart for bobby kielty! the twins never knew what they had with kielty. i'm psyched cause i've got him on my fantasy team. now he'll get full playing time.

stewart,shannon 303 .085 .901 .322 .290/.350/.445 5.93
kielty,bobby 238 .159 .765 .336 .257/.375/.425 5.78

jp sums it up: "We've got this guy for the next four years before he can become a free agent. This is basically getting Shannon Stewart from the start all over again.''

they're basically the same player, right now. but stewart is only good for one year, unless you wanna pay him $6.2 million again. and he's 29, past his peak. kielty is 26, so he's gonna get better. the jays will have him all the way through his prime, and then drop him when he gets expensive. it is good to be the king.

let's look at that lineup:

kielty,bobby 238 .159 .765 .336 .257/.375/.425 5.78
catalanotto,frank 349 .059 .877 .330 .289/.331/.464 5.84
wells,vernon 405 .063 .874 .357 .312/.355/.569 7.92
delgado,carlos 345 .165 .762 .391 .298/.414/.614 9.77
myers,greg 198 .132 .828 .348 .288/.382/.505 7.31
hinske,eric 219 .102 .753 .346 .260/.336/.452 5.55
johnson,reed 179 .082 .899 .324 .292/.350/.454 6.05
hudson,orlando 284 .084 .820 .317 .260/.322/.387 4.55
woodward,chris 265 .080 .808 .321 .259/.318/.395 4.58

damn!

oh yeah kielty fields better than stewart too.
 
christmas comes early
look what you have in your grubby little (virtual) fingers! pitcher leaderboards!

wal & con, plus pra, which stands for predicted run average, and rra, which is real run average. we don't do era.

player ip wal con pra rra
johnson,randy 23.1 .074 .690 3.32 7.71
schilling,curt 77 .068 .700 3.34 3.51
prior,mark 128.2 .076 .701 3.45 3.71
vazquez,javier 125.1 .067 .716 3.49 4.16
martinez,pedro 103 .072 .711 3.50 2.80
mussina,mike 124.1 .044 .748 3.54 3.47
schmidt,jason 133 .071 .719 3.57 2.44
clemens,roger 124.2 .073 .736 3.76 3.97
wood,kerry 127 .128 .669 3.79 3.26
dreifort,darren 60.1 .095 .720 3.86 4.33
willis,dontrell 82.1 .073 .752 3.92 2.19
brown,kevin 117.1 .064 .773 4.03 2.53
oswalt,roy 85.2 .071 .765 4.03 3.78
beckett,josh 53.2 .110 .729 4.16 4.86
pettitte,andy 116.2 .061 .790 4.16 5.40
halladay,roy 153 .042 .811 4.17 4.06
loaiza,esteban 130.1 .067 .787 4.22 2.35
alvarez,wilson 23.2 .096 .755 4.24 4.18
webb,brandon 97 .078 .779 4.26 2.51
millwood,kevin 127.2 .073 .786 4.27 3.74


player ip wal con pra rra
gagne,eric 45.1 .076 .522 1.83 2.18
smoltz,john 47.1 .038 .693 2.95 0.95
wagner,billy 51.2 .074 .661 3.04 2.44
mantei,matt 27.1 .088 .650 3.12 3.95
donnelly,brenda 48 .076 .673 3.17 0.56
hawkins,latroy 45.2 .058 .704 3.27 3.35
holmes,darren 27.2 .066 .717 3.49 4.23
dotel,octavio 53.2 .098 .680 3.51 2.68
foulke,keith 50.1 .074 .714 3.55 2.86
calero,kiko 38.1 .127 .646 3.55 2.82
gordon,tom 45.2 .120 .659 3.59 3.94
santana,johan 72 .087 .704 3.61 3.00
borowski,joe 43.2 .068 .727 3.61 3.09
rivera,mariano 36 .042 .757 3.62 2.00
ryan,b.j. 25.1 .137 .644 3.66 5.68
service,scott 30.2 .053 .754 3.70 5.28
percival,troy 29 .080 .728 3.77 2.79
guardado,eddie 36 .048 .770 3.81 3.75
riske,david 45 .082 .732 3.83 3.00
mota,guillermo 57.1 .052 .771 3.86 1.57

eric gagne is insane. you know i should have used runs created in my pra calculations. instead i used linear weights. oh well. next time.

with pra right next to rra you can easily run a list of the luckiest and unluckiest pitchers.

luckiest:

player ip wal con pra rra luck
lima,jose 39.1 .106 .896 5.91 2.52 3.40
williams,jerome 58 .113 .826 5.23 2.79 2.43
day,zach 65.1 .118 .882 5.92 3.72 2.20
loaiza,esteban 130.1 .067 .787 4.22 2.35 1.87
armas,tony 31 .071 .805 4.45 2.61 1.83
zito,barry 134.1 .094 .849 5.23 3.42 1.81
villone,ron 30 .098 .775 4.46 2.70 1.76
webb,brandon 97 .078 .779 4.26 2.51 1.75
willis,dontrell 82.1 .073 .752 3.92 2.19 1.73
hernandez,runel 62 .101 .853 5.36 3.63 1.73
pineiro,joel 129 .097 .822 4.96 3.28 1.68
hudson,tim 143 .073 .837 4.82 3.15 1.67
mulder,mark 139.2 .054 .847 4.68 3.03 1.66
ishii,kazuhisa 104 .159 .740 4.93 3.29 1.64
moyer,jamie 122.1 .082 .829 4.83 3.24 1.60
ortiz,russ 128.1 .113 .838 5.35 3.79 1.56
westbrook,jake 66.1 .118 .904 6.18 4.61 1.56
brown,kevin 117.1 .064 .773 4.03 2.53 1.50
zambrano,victor 100.2 .149 .833 5.81 4.38 1.42
rueter,kirk 105 .077 .937 6.02 4.63 1.39

it'slima time! then a bunch of all-stars, overhyped rookies, and a's. zito, mulder, and hudson benefit from a pitcher's park and the best defense in the majors.

kirk rueter is lucky every year. which means he's not lucky, he's good (relatively speaking). bill james calls him the "tommy john" type: crafty lefties that don't walk people and control the running game. i'm working on a way to account for that in the stats. actually, i've got one, i just need to implement it.

"what?"

"he says he's already got one!"

"can we come up and have a look?"

"no!"

unluckiest:

player ip wal con pra rra luck
johnson,randy 23.1 .074 .690 3.32 7.71 -4.39
drese,ryan 20 .167 .767 5.33 9.45 -4.12
benes,alan 23.1 .116 .813 5.11 8.49 -3.37
heilman,aaron 21.1 .092 .876 5.50 8.86 -3.36
brazelton,dewon 48.1 .114 .881 5.86 9.12 -3.26
anderson,jimmy 38.2 .074 .926 5.84 9.08 -3.23
rusch,glendon 84.1 .090 .843 5.11 8.22 -3.11
austin,jeff 28.1 .157 .805 5.61 8.58 -2.97
lewis,colby 61.1 .156 .833 5.92 8.80 -2.89
condrey,clay 34 .142 .828 5.64 8.47 -2.83
neagle,denny 31.1 .063 .858 4.93 6.89 -1.97
elarton,scott 37 .087 .917 5.91 7.78 -1.88
hendrickson,mar 94 .053 .882 5.08 6.70 -1.62
fossum,casey 59.1 .098 .791 4.64 6.22 -1.58
astacio,pedro 36.2 .118 .873 5.81 7.36 -1.55
standridge,jaso 32 .102 .864 5.49 7.03 -1.54
loewer,carlton 21.2 .083 .890 5.54 7.06 -1.53
patterson,john 41.2 .126 .827 5.41 6.91 -1.50
lidle,cory 125.1 .061 .854 4.86 6.32 -1.46
santos,victor 25.2 .138 .858 5.94 7.36 -1.42

whaddyaknow, randy johnson doesn't suck. also there are 2 toronto pitchers, and of course some high-altitude kids.

now for the relievers . . .

luckiest:

player ip wal con pra rra luck
wendell,turk 34 .112 .882 5.84 1.59 4.25
hasegawa,shiget 46.2 .038 .881 4.88 0.77 4.11
shuey,paul 38.1 .121 .783 4.85 1.88 2.98
guthrie,mark 22.1 .113 .837 5.35 2.42 2.93
cormier,rheal 47.1 .086 .776 4.33 1.52 2.81
quantrill,paul 45 .056 .838 4.63 2.00 2.63
donnelly,brenda 48 .076 .673 3.17 0.56 2.61
looper,braden 51.1 .090 .837 5.03 2.45 2.58
estrella,leo 37.1 .065 .883 5.22 2.65 2.57
strickland,scot 20 .126 .789 5.00 2.70 2.30
mota,guillermo 57.1 .052 .771 3.86 1.57 2.30
silva,carlos 54.2 .117 .881 5.90 3.62 2.28
marte,damaso 43.1 .106 .706 3.87 1.66 2.21
shields,scot 67.1 .079 .785 4.34 2.14 2.20
koplove,mike 37.2 .094 .813 4.82 2.63 2.19
levine,al 45 .079 .868 5.24 3.20 2.04
kline,steve 36.2 .143 .896 6.45 4.42 2.03
reith,brian 27.2 .147 .845 5.92 3.90 2.02
smoltz,john 47.1 .038 .693 2.95 0.95 2.00
leskanic,curtis 29 .155 .697 4.44 2.48 1.95

looks like the change to #13 worked! or is it the shark's teeth? (bear's claws? what are those things?) does he still chew licorice and brush his teeth between innings?

in other news, brendan donnelly is not the best pitcher ever.

unluckiest:

player ip wal con pra rra luck
lopez,albie 22.2 .135 .862 5.94 12.71 -6.77
bierbrodt,nick 43.1 .142 .851 5.90 9.76 -3.86
wright,jaret 30.1 .138 .804 5.32 8.90 -3.58
orosco,jesse 24 .103 .790 4.69 8.25 -3.56
vizcaino,luis 34.2 .102 .773 4.50 8.05 -3.55
cruz,juan 26 .154 .702 4.48 7.96 -3.49
powell,jay 36.1 .131 .855 5.80 9.17 -3.36
jones,todd 45.2 .098 .828 5.03 8.28 -3.25
cruz,nelson 53.2 .054 .832 4.53 7.21 -2.68
fassero,jeff 34.2 .090 .862 5.31 7.79 -2.48
white,rick 39 .069 .807 4.45 6.92 -2.47
acevedo,juan 32 .097 .820 4.95 7.31 -2.37
neal,blaine 20 .095 .895 5.76 8.10 -2.34
yan,esteban 46 .088 .812 4.74 6.85 -2.11
ryan,b.j. 25.1 .137 .644 3.66 5.68 -2.03
politte,cliff 33.2 .071 .804 4.44 6.42 -1.97
saarloos,kirk 31.1 .102 .795 4.74 6.61 -1.87
groom,buddy 26.2 .082 .813 4.66 6.41 -1.75
meadows,brian 28 .039 .893 5.04 6.75 -1.71
service,scott 30.2 .053 .754 3.70 5.28 -1.58

the cubs don't know what they have with juan cruz. but what else is new.

now for the whole enchilada:

player ip wal con pra rra
johnson,randy 23.1 .074 .690 3.32 7.71
schilling,curt 77 .068 .700 3.34 3.51
prior,mark 128.2 .076 .701 3.45 3.71
vazquez,javier 125.1 .067 .716 3.49 4.16
martinez,pedro 103 .072 .711 3.50 2.80
mussina,mike 124.1 .044 .748 3.54 3.47
schmidt,jason 133 .071 .719 3.57 2.44
clemens,roger 124.2 .073 .736 3.76 3.97
wood,kerry 127 .128 .669 3.79 3.26
dreifort,darren 60.1 .095 .720 3.86 4.33
willis,dontrell 82.1 .073 .752 3.92 2.19
brown,kevin 117.1 .064 .773 4.03 2.53
oswalt,roy 85.2 .071 .765 4.03 3.78
beckett,josh 53.2 .110 .729 4.16 4.86
pettitte,andy 116.2 .061 .790 4.16 5.40
halladay,roy 153 .042 .811 4.17 4.06
loaiza,esteban 130.1 .067 .787 4.22 2.35
alvarez,wilson 23.2 .096 .755 4.24 4.18
webb,brandon 97 .078 .779 4.26 2.51
millwood,kevin 127.2 .073 .786 4.27 3.74
wolf,randy 119.2 .093 .763 4.29 3.61
sheets,ben 141.2 .054 .813 4.32 4.83
escobar,kelvim 87.2 .102 .762 4.39 5.03
lohse,kyle 116.2 .062 .811 4.40 5.01
nomo,hideo 142.1 .102 .765 4.42 3.10
armas,tony 31 .071 .805 4.45 2.61
morris,matt 124.2 .060 .818 4.46 4.48
pavano,carl 118.1 .048 .832 4.46 4.56
villone,ron 30 .098 .775 4.46 2.70
perez,odalis 114.1 .061 .818 4.46 4.41
eaton,adam 102.2 .095 .788 4.56 4.91
wakefield,tim 116.1 .104 .778 4.57 4.64
redman,mark 99.1 .074 .814 4.58 3.62
lackey,john 119 .075 .813 4.58 5.29
clement,matt 112.2 .100 .784 4.59 4.71
bonderman,jerem 103.1 .074 .816 4.61 5.66
ponson,sidney 126 .069 .823 4.61 3.79
williams,woody 134.2 .061 .832 4.62 3.27
fossum,casey 59.1 .098 .791 4.64 6.22
colon,bartolo 134.2 .078 .816 4.65 4.14
benoit,joaquin 56.2 .114 .774 4.67 5.56
kim,byung-hyun 84.1 .088 .806 4.68 4.06
wells,david 127 .024 .877 4.68 3.90
mulder,mark 139.2 .054 .847 4.68 3.03
thomson,john 117.2 .050 .851 4.69 5.97
penny,brad 116.2 .078 .820 4.70 4.94
maddux,greg 126.1 .050 .852 4.70 5.56
meche,gil 112.1 .075 .824 4.70 3.77
miller,wade 116 .096 .800 4.71 4.81
traber,billy 72 .102 .794 4.72 4.38
batista,miguel 108 .077 .823 4.72 3.42
hernandez,livan 129 .069 .834 4.74 4.19
kinney,matt 116.1 .099 .801 4.75 5.18
radke,brad 118 .044 .863 4.75 5.87
lilly,ted 105.1 .090 .812 4.76 5.38
ashby,andy 42 .059 .853 4.82 5.57
hudson,tim 143 .073 .837 4.82 3.15
good,andrew 66.1 .065 .846 4.82 5.70
moyer,jamie 122.1 .082 .829 4.83 3.24
affeldt,jeremy 85 .076 .836 4.84 5.08
myers,brett 120.2 .089 .822 4.85 3.80
lidle,cory 125.1 .061 .854 4.86 6.32
ainsworth,kurt 66 .093 .818 4.86 4.23
may,darrell 112 .063 .854 4.88 3.78
peavy,jake 116.2 .103 .810 4.90 4.71
benson,kris 103 .071 .848 4.91 5.33
neagle,denny 31.1 .063 .858 4.93 6.89
seo,jae_weong 108.2 .057 .865 4.93 4.31
ishii,kazuhisa 104 .159 .740 4.93 3.29
perez,oliver 63.1 .157 .743 4.93 5.40
burkett,john 104.2 .079 .842 4.95 5.50
pineiro,joel 129 .097 .822 4.96 3.28
suppan,jeff 118.1 .065 .859 4.96 3.80
garcia,freddy 122.1 .087 .835 4.97 4.78
sabathia,c.c. 117 .093 .830 4.99 3.62
lopez,rodrigo 65.1 .076 .850 5.00 6.34
rogers,kenny 108.2 .067 .860 5.00 5.05
snyder,kyle 64.1 .057 .872 5.00 5.04
zambrano,carlos 120.2 .117 .802 5.01 4.10
dessens,elmer 112.1 .078 .852 5.05 5.69
wells,kip 105.1 .110 .815 5.05 4.02
padilla,vicente 115.2 .084 .847 5.07 4.28
chacon,shawn 105.1 .102 .826 5.07 4.44
d'amico,jeff 104.1 .058 .877 5.08 4.57
hendrickson,mar 94 .053 .882 5.08 6.70
reed,rick 87.2 .062 .873 5.08 5.44
jennings,jason 116.1 .112 .815 5.08 5.26
robertson,jerio 94.1 .087 .845 5.09 5.15
lawrence,brian 129.1 .082 .852 5.09 4.80
ohka,tomo 105.2 .062 .874 5.10 4.85
daal,omar 86 .067 .870 5.11 6.17
rusch,glendon 84.1 .090 .843 5.11 8.22
benes,alan 23.1 .116 .813 5.11 8.49
foppert,jesse 78.2 .148 .772 5.11 6.06
garland,jon 104.2 .083 .852 5.11 4.90
wilson,paul 104.1 .068 .870 5.12 5.61
washburn,jarrod 128 .066 .872 5.12 4.29
weaver,jeff 110.2 .071 .868 5.14 5.61
harang,aaron 30.1 .064 .879 5.17 5.64
duckworth,brand 58.2 .125 .808 5.17 5.06
gonzalez,jeremi 65.2 .140 .788 5.18 4.11
redding,tim 106.2 .098 .841 5.18 4.22
johnson,jason 103.2 .094 .846 5.19 4.43
ramirez,horacio 99 .096 .846 5.21 4.55
williams,jerome 58 .113 .826 5.23 2.79
zito,barry 134.1 .094 .849 5.23 3.42
tomko,brett 118 .071 .878 5.25 6.25
davis,jason 105.2 .077 .872 5.26 5.79
maroth,mike 112.1 .066 .886 5.27 5.21
simontacchi,jas 89.1 .083 .866 5.28 6.25
franklin,ryan 117.2 .070 .882 5.28 3.98
jarvis,kevin 35.1 .094 .855 5.29 5.35
vargas,claudio 92.2 .085 .866 5.29 3.98
valdes,ismael 85.1 .059 .896 5.31 6.64
buehrle,mark 136 .074 .881 5.31 5.16
helling,rick 102 .097 .854 5.32 5.82
ortiz,ramon 112.1 .083 .871 5.32 5.37
drese,ryan 20 .167 .767 5.33 9.45
fogg,josh 73 .077 .880 5.35 5.42
ortiz,russ 128.1 .113 .838 5.35 3.79
hernandez,runel 62 .101 .853 5.36 3.63
franklin,wayne 119.2 .119 .833 5.37 5.19
hentgen,pat 73.2 .099 .858 5.38 5.25
halama,john 74.1 .085 .874 5.38 6.05
lowe,derek 116 .091 .868 5.40 5.35
reynolds,shane 94 .095 .865 5.41 5.74
trachsel,steve 111.1 .090 .870 5.41 4.77
patterson,john 41.2 .126 .827 5.41 6.91
anderson,brian 104.2 .054 .910 5.41 5.68
rodriguez,ricar 81.2 .085 .877 5.42 6.28
dempster,ryan 99 .136 .821 5.48 6.82
standridge,jaso 32 .102 .864 5.49 7.03
heilman,aaron 21.1 .092 .876 5.50 8.86
appier,kevin 84.2 .104 .863 5.52 5.00
loewer,carlton 21.2 .083 .890 5.54 7.06
estes,shawn 105 .114 .853 5.54 6.77
kennedy,joe 72.1 .074 .901 5.55 6.35
hampton,mike 91 .118 .849 5.55 5.54
burnett,a.j. 23 .187 .759 5.56 5.09
asencio,miguel 48.1 .108 .864 5.58 5.40
bernero,adam 100.2 .106 .867 5.58 6.08
reyes,carlos 28 .035 .946 5.59 4.82
oliver,darren 106 .095 .882 5.60 4.75
leiter,al 97 .143 .823 5.61 5.66
austin,jeff 28.1 .157 .805 5.61 8.58
glavine,tom 110.1 .088 .893 5.64 4.89
condrey,clay 34 .142 .828 5.64 8.47
stephenson,garr 118 .113 .864 5.65 4.96
ritchie,todd 28.1 .104 .876 5.66 5.40
wright,dan 54.2 .130 .845 5.68 6.26
mays,joe 98.1 .079 .907 5.69 6.59
parris,steve 43.2 .064 .927 5.72 6.60
graves,danny 117.2 .071 .921 5.75 6.12
zambrano,victor 100.2 .149 .833 5.81 4.38
astacio,pedro 36.2 .118 .873 5.81 7.36
anderson,jimmy 38.2 .074 .926 5.84 9.08
brazelton,dewon 48.1 .114 .881 5.86 9.12
sele,aaron 58.2 .108 .892 5.90 5.68
elarton,scott 37 .087 .917 5.91 7.78
lima,jose 39.1 .106 .896 5.91 2.52
lewis,colby 61.1 .156 .833 5.92 8.80
day,zach 65.1 .118 .882 5.92 3.72
knotts,gary 75 .117 .884 5.93 5.28
mcclung,seth 38.2 .158 .832 5.94 5.35
davis,doug 57 .112 .890 5.94 5.84
santos,victor 25.2 .138 .858 5.94 7.36
quevedo,ruben 41.1 .112 .891 5.95 6.53
sosa,jorge 59.1 .113 .892 5.98 5.01
george,chris 93.2 .105 .903 5.99 7.21
rueter,kirk 105 .077 .937 6.02 4.63
mounce,tony 33.1 .141 .864 6.05 5.94
stewart,josh 25.2 .132 .876 6.06 6.31
haynes,jimmy 80 .131 .879 6.08 5.96
moss,damian 96 .135 .875 6.08 5.25
cornejo,nate 103.1 .064 .957 6.09 4.70
westbrook,jake 66.1 .118 .904 6.18 4.61
bell,rob 29.1 .132 .898 6.32 7.67
cook,aaron 88 .112 .924 6.34 6.65
park,chanho 29.2 .201 .870 7.07 7.89


player ip wal con pra rra
gagne,eric 45.1 .076 .522 1.83 2.18
smoltz,john 47.1 .038 .693 2.95 0.95
wagner,billy 51.2 .074 .661 3.04 2.44
mantei,matt 27.1 .088 .650 3.12 3.95
donnelly,brenda 48 .076 .673 3.17 0.56
hawkins,latroy 45.2 .058 .704 3.27 3.35
holmes,darren 27.2 .066 .717 3.49 4.23
dotel,octavio 53.2 .098 .680 3.51 2.68
foulke,keith 50.1 .074 .714 3.55 2.86
calero,kiko 38.1 .127 .646 3.55 2.82
gordon,tom 45.2 .120 .659 3.59 3.94
santana,johan 72 .087 .704 3.61 3.00
borowski,joe 43.2 .068 .727 3.61 3.09
rivera,mariano 36 .042 .757 3.62 2.00
ryan,b.j. 25.1 .137 .644 3.66 5.68
service,scott 30.2 .053 .754 3.70 5.28
percival,troy 29 .080 .728 3.77 2.79
guardado,eddie 36 .048 .770 3.81 3.75
riske,david 45 .082 .732 3.83 3.00
mota,guillermo 57.1 .052 .771 3.86 1.57
marte,damaso 43.1 .106 .706 3.87 1.66
nelson,jeff 30.2 .103 .713 3.90 4.70
farnsworth,kyle 45 .114 .699 3.91 3.00
lidge,brad 53.2 .128 .685 3.95 2.85
hodges,trey 45.1 .102 .723 3.98 3.38
fuentes,brian 44.2 .131 .692 4.06 3.43
timlin,mike 52 .037 .807 4.07 3.81
williamson,scot 37.1 .143 .681 4.10 3.38
urbina,ugueth 39.2 .116 .717 4.11 4.31
remlinger,mike 40 .165 .651 4.12 4.95
rodriguez,franc 48 .109 .733 4.17 3.00
nathan,joe 50.2 .117 .723 4.19 3.73
mateo,julio 41.2 .075 .776 4.19 3.46
hammond,chris 39.1 .047 .809 4.20 3.43
cordero,francis 51.1 .120 .722 4.21 4.21
benitez,armando 49.1 .113 .735 4.25 3.28
driskill,travis 39.2 .041 .823 4.28 5.67
roa,joe 26 .042 .823 4.30 5.54
almanza,armando 40.2 .108 .747 4.30 5.31
spooneybarger,t 42 .073 .791 4.32 4.50
cormier,rheal 47.1 .086 .776 4.33 1.52
baez,danys 45 .086 .776 4.33 4.20
shields,scot 67.1 .079 .785 4.34 2.14
martin,tom 28.1 .114 .743 4.34 4.45
embree,alan 35.2 .076 .791 4.36 3.79
lyon,brandon 50.2 .081 .785 4.36 4.44
miceli,dan 39 .110 .752 4.39 4.38
mecir,jim 25 .058 .816 4.41 3.60
fultz,aaron 41 .078 .795 4.43 4.83
oropesa,eddie 26 .148 .707 4.43 3.46
leskanic,curtis 29 .155 .697 4.44 2.48
politte,cliff 33.2 .071 .804 4.44 6.42
white,rick 39 .069 .807 4.45 6.92
ligtenberg,kerr 33.2 .062 .816 4.46 3.48
cruz,juan 26 .154 .702 4.48 7.96
white,gabe 34.1 .048 .835 4.49 3.93
rhodes,arthur 37.2 .096 .780 4.50 3.82
vizcaino,luis 34.2 .102 .773 4.50 8.05
speier,justin 48 .092 .787 4.52 3.75
eldred,cal 38.2 .120 .753 4.53 4.42
cruz,nelson 53.2 .054 .832 4.53 7.21
osuna,antonio 27.1 .107 .771 4.53 2.96
eischen,joey 34.2 .082 .801 4.54 4.67
lopez,javier 33.2 .074 .810 4.54 5.61
schoeneweis,sco 32.2 .079 .806 4.55 4.41
bong,jung 47 .102 .778 4.56 3.83
worrell,tim 46.2 .082 .804 4.58 3.86
herges,matt 44 .113 .767 4.59 3.27
hitchcock,sterl 32 .076 .813 4.60 5.63
contreras,jose 25.1 .142 .732 4.60 4.62
feliciano,pedro 28.2 .114 .769 4.61 3.77
walker,jamie 35.2 .068 .825 4.62 3.79
quantrill,paul 45 .056 .838 4.63 2.00
grimsley,jason 50 .090 .802 4.65 4.14
weathers,dave 51 .105 .784 4.66 3.35
groom,buddy 26.2 .082 .813 4.66 6.41
harper,travis 60.2 .089 .804 4.67 4.01
smith,dan 37.2 .114 .774 4.67 5.50
lopez,aquilino 47.1 .148 .730 4.68 4.37
adams,terry 46.1 .070 .828 4.68 3.11
orosco,jesse 24 .103 .790 4.69 8.25
dejean,mike 46.1 .104 .789 4.70 5.83
kieschnick,broo 31 .044 .862 4.74 4.35
yan,esteban 46 .088 .812 4.74 6.85
torres,salomon 70.1 .078 .824 4.74 4.48
saarloos,kirk 31.1 .102 .795 4.74 6.61
bradford,chad 46.2 .115 .780 4.74 4.05
shouse,brian 40.1 .047 .865 4.81 4.24
dickey,r.a. 45 .100 .805 4.81 5.20
stewart,scott 37.2 .083 .825 4.81 4.06
ledezma,wil 52 .073 .837 4.82 3.29
koplove,mike 37.2 .094 .813 4.82 2.63
reitsma,chris 49.1 .052 .861 4.82 4.56
ayala,luis 35 .044 .870 4.83 4.11
julio,jorge 34.1 .128 .772 4.84 4.46
chen,bruce 24.1 .108 .798 4.85 5.92
mercker,kent 26.2 .158 .733 4.85 3.04
shuey,paul 38.1 .121 .783 4.85 1.88
garcia,rosman 24.2 .073 .842 4.87 4.74
mesa,jose 40 .088 .824 4.87 5.18
weber,ben 47.1 .055 .863 4.88 3.04
hasegawa,shiget 46.2 .038 .881 4.88 0.77
heredia,felix 54 .080 .837 4.90 3.50
spurling,chris 41.1 .045 .876 4.91 5.44
foster,john 21 .088 .828 4.91 4.71
rodriguez,felix 41.1 .108 .806 4.93 3.48
eyre,scott 38 .085 .833 4.93 3.55
acevedo,juan 32 .097 .820 4.95 7.31
sullivan,scott 44.1 .136 .772 4.95 4.26
koch,billy 38.1 .109 .806 4.95 6.10
shiell,jason 21.2 .147 .759 4.96 5.40
biddle,rocky 45.1 .150 .754 4.96 4.76
carter,lance 46.2 .085 .837 4.96 4.24
villafuerte,bra 29.1 .145 .763 4.97 4.91
wilson,kris 48 .061 .865 4.98 5.44
phelps,tommy 57 .094 .828 4.98 4.58
king,ray 35.1 .114 .803 4.98 3.06
bauer,rick 41 .089 .835 5.00 5.05
strickland,scot 20 .126 .789 5.00 2.70
looper,braden 51.1 .090 .837 5.03 2.45
jones,todd 45.2 .098 .828 5.03 8.28
meadows,brian 28 .039 .893 5.04 6.75
tejera,michael 57.2 .101 .825 5.05 5.77
stanton,mike 21.2 .097 .833 5.08 4.98
gryboski,kevin 30.2 .115 .813 5.10 4.70
colome,jesus 49.2 .160 .758 5.14 4.71
delossantos,val 30 .117 .814 5.14 3.90
lloyd,graeme 32 .045 .898 5.16 3.38
sauerbeck,scott 38 .149 .776 5.17 4.74
boyd,jason 33 .124 .808 5.17 4.09
lowe,sean 37.1 .092 .848 5.18 5.06
alfonseca,anton 34 .097 .842 5.18 6.09
rincon,ricardo 32 .134 .797 5.18 4.50
bland,nate 20.1 .144 .783 5.18 5.75
villarreal,osca 55.2 .135 .797 5.21 4.20
estrella,leo 37.1 .065 .883 5.22 2.65
carrasco,d.j. 46.1 .135 .800 5.23 4.27
levine,al 45 .079 .868 5.24 3.20
matthews,mike 46 .117 .824 5.25 4.50
tucker,t.j. 45.1 .097 .850 5.27 6.15
stone,ricky 53.2 .091 .857 5.27 3.69
levrault,allen 28 .116 .828 5.28 3.86
hackman,luther 50.2 .103 .846 5.30 4.62
linebrink,scott 64.1 .096 .855 5.31 3.36
fassero,jeff 34.2 .090 .862 5.31 7.79
sparks,steve 60 .100 .851 5.32 5.40
wright,jaret 30.1 .138 .804 5.32 8.90
rincon,juan 49 .114 .834 5.32 3.67
sanders,dave 21 .117 .831 5.33 5.14
guthrie,mark 22.1 .113 .837 5.35 2.42
randolph,stephe 35 .169 .767 5.37 4.37
brower,jim 56.1 .111 .844 5.39 4.95
glover,gary 31.1 .093 .868 5.42 5.17
beimel,joe 40.1 .142 .810 5.45 3.57
miller,trever 32.1 .148 .803 5.45 5.57
callaway,mickey 35.1 .088 .877 5.47 6.88
ford,matt 41.1 .104 .860 5.47 3.92
zerbe,chad 36.1 .043 .929 5.49 4.46
macdougal,mike 41.2 .153 .800 5.50 3.89
boehringer,bria 36.1 .118 .846 5.51 6.44
reed,steve 39.2 .119 .845 5.52 3.86
roberts,willis 39.1 .126 .836 5.52 5.95
roney,matt 62 .110 .859 5.55 3.92
mendoza,ramiro 48.1 .085 .889 5.55 5.77
sturtze,tanyon 66 .106 .867 5.58 6.95
jimenez,jose 44.1 .091 .884 5.59 7.11
hernandez,rober 40 .162 .800 5.63 4.73
german,franklyn 32.1 .217 .724 5.66 4.45
tavarez,julian 39 .092 .892 5.69 5.08
romero,j.c. 36.1 .164 .804 5.70 5.20
tam,jeff 44.2 .119 .865 5.74 6.04
walker,pete 32.1 .110 .876 5.75 6.12
neal,blaine 20 .095 .895 5.76 8.10
fiore,tony 36 .146 .836 5.80 6.25
powell,jay 36.1 .131 .855 5.80 9.17
neu,mike 27.1 .134 .855 5.83 4.28
wendell,turk 34 .112 .882 5.84 1.59
munro,pete 44.2 .124 .869 5.86 5.24
bierbrodt,nick 43.1 .142 .851 5.90 9.76
silva,carlos 54.2 .117 .881 5.90 3.62
reith,brian 27.2 .147 .845 5.92 3.90
lopez,albie 22.2 .135 .862 5.94 12.71
riedling,john 62.2 .130 .873 5.99 7.04
carrara,giovann 29 .112 .898 6.02 6.83
hermanson,dusti 29.2 .108 .903 6.03 5.46
williams,mike 36.1 .133 .873 6.04 6.44
cerda,jaime 23.1 .136 .874 6.09 6.56
mulholland,terr 52.2 .113 .909 6.17 4.61
myers,mike 24.1 .130 .890 6.20 5.55
kline,steve 36.2 .143 .896 6.45 4.42
puffer,brandon 21 .163 .885 6.64 5.57
anderson,jason 20.2 .158 .894 6.67 5.66

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