rob neyer wrote a column about the wants and needs of this year's contenders. it's good, as usual. here are my comments:

first, the a's:

And then there's Beane. I think the world of Billy, but if he can fix what ails the A's lineup, we should let him rule the world. The A's, who worship at the twin altars of on-base percentage and slugging percentage, rank 10th and 11th in the American League in those categories. Not coincidentally, they're 10th in runs scored. There is reason to think that many, and perhaps most, of Oakland's hitters are better than they've played, and will improve over the next couple of months. Still, Beane has to be thinking about first base. And right field. And left field.

this is nitpicky, but it is not the case that the a's worship at the twin altars of on-base percentage and slugging percentage. the a's worship at the altar of underappreciated value. this year, it's defense. the a's have the best defense in the majors. it helps that they have 3 center fielders in the outfield. and scott hatteberg is a swiffer at first (get it? everything sticks!)

what? those are the 3 positions neyer said need help. ok, but he's still right, sort of. the a's need one more hitter. who'da thunk it? then singleton can be the fourth outfielder. that's still a lot of playing time.

incidentally, what's wrong with hatteberg? he currently sports a .256/.339/.372 avg/obp/slg. is he dead?

hatteberg,scott    324  .115  .898  .311  .280/.362/.400  5.43

no, he's just resting.

tejada and chavez have also been unlucky:

chavez,eric        323  .098  .836  .347  .290/.359/.507  6.92

tejada,miguel      375  .074  .909  .330  .300/.352/.481  6.53

compare that to .258/.332/.475 and .249/.307/.423, respectively.

hell, let's run the whole team:

hernandez,ramon    275  .086  .840  .336  .282/.344/.468  6.05

durazo,erubiel     304  .174  .816  .333  .271/.398/.443  6.53

ellis,mark         309  .104  .819  .318  .260/.338/.390  4.80

byrnes,eric        301  .099  .860  .345  .296/.366/.512  7.20

long,terrence      291  .067  .866  .324  .280/.329/.435  5.37

singleton,chris    183  .066  .836  .310  .259/.309/.369  4.15

everyone has had bad luck but singleton. he's .279/.321/.386. that streches your meaning of good luck. oops durazo has been lucky by .021 of ops. sorry. long has had the worst of it, at .252/.300/.404.

this team will score more runs. their park is a canyon, but it don't matter. the a's will win the west. and the red sox will win the east (sox fans hate me right now.) sadly, i don't think the mariners will take the wild card (now yankee fans hate me too. assuming they caught the slight. ooh! i'm gonna pay for that!)

so i guess we're gonna have to let beane rule the world. that's not an attractive prospect. come to think of it, he couldn't do much worse than those currently in power. . . .

don't tell anybody i said that.

about the expos, rob says ". . . they're terrible at three spots: third base (Fernando Tatis), catcher (Michael Barrett), and center field (Endy Chavez). I think at least two of those guys will improve, . . ."

ok, which one?

tatis,fernando     175  .107  .771  .298  .230/.313/.299  3.28

barrett,michael    169  .096  .834  .336  .280/.349/.463  6.07

chavez,endy        327  .044  .887  .309  .274/.306/.388  4.41

the answer is . . . all of them. although in tatis's case, he still shouldn't be on the team. improving a .194 avg will not impress anyone. but chavez is at .251/.285/.359, and should go up. and barrett, at .199/.268/.382, has got to start praying to a new god, because the one he has ain't workin'. i suggest baal.

michael barrett is one of the top 6 catchers in the league. and i'm not saying that because i've had him on 3 fantasy teams (no, not last year, and no, not 1999. i'm not bitter. why do you think i'm bitter?)

piazza,mike        111  .133  .865  .365  .316/.407/.595  9.54

lopez,javy         261  .068  .808  .389  .315/.361/.644  9.16

rodriguez,ivan     293  .112  .816  .348  .284/.364/.499  6.85

hammock,robby      103  .046  .816  .354  .289/.322/.522  6.38

larue,jason        205  .128  .707  .363  .257/.352/.481  6.16

barrett,michael    169  .096  .834  .336  .280/.349/.463  6.07

robby hammock probably is not that good. that pow is suspect with that sample size. and there's a big dropoff after #2(javy lopez!). but there it is. if you count piazza and hammock each as 1/2, then barrett's #5. next is his teammate, brian schneider.

next comment, braves pitching:

With even Vinny Castilla hitting reasonably well, the Braves' lineup is set for the duration. And of course, the Braves do have the best record in the majors. Which isn't to say they're perfect. Not when starter Shane Reynolds sports a nifty 5.77 ERA. Then again, the Braves' lead in the East is safe, and there's no reason for Reynolds to even make the postseason roster, let alone pitch in October. So aside from possibly adding somebody who can pinch-hit in October, there's really no reason for John Schuerholz to do anything.

era . . . you just can't do anything with it. the implication here is that aside from reynolds, the staff is good.

what do you think?

maddux,greg       126.1  .050  .852  4.70  5.56  

ortiz,ramon       112.1  .083  .871  5.32  5.37  

ramirez,horacio    99    .096  .846  5.21  4.55  

hampton,mike       91    .118  .849  5.55  5.54  

reynolds,shane     94    .095  .865  5.41  5.74  

the second-to-last number is predicted run average. the last number is actual run average (pre-all-star break). so maddux is the best starter. but he's not great. and the rest of these guys are chumps. the braves could really use a front-line starter in the playoffs. it wouldn't hurt for the regular season, either. but front-line starters don't grow on trees. who made up the term "front-line starter", anyway?

that's all the time i have for today. tomorrow, reader mail.
- posted by julien @ 8:43 PM