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Saturday, July 26, 2003
carlos baerga .056 .921 .324
from baseball prospectus:
His .323/.353/.484 line would fit right into the prime of his career, yet it comes on the heels of five consecutive seasons that are usually a prelude to retirement. His slugging percentages the past six years; .381, .396, .364, .314, .379, .484. Which of these is not like the other? Baerga's power surge hasn't coincided with an increased interest in the base on balls, which he still treats like a plague, but that flaw hasn't stopped him from being a productive hitter. Considering Arizona's success with coaxing quality production from veterans assumed to be washed up, it may be time to start investigating what exactly is in the desert water.
this analysis is based on bad numbers, but it is mostly correct. the .379 and .314 are small sample sizes, and in between he took two years off. so the last meaningful slg he put up was 1998. those things were considered, but not mentioned, in the analysis. the people at bp have enough experience with slugging percentage to know that .484 is high enough, after this much playing time, to mean something is up.
baerga's con and pow are higher than they've been since 1996, which was an unlucky age 27 year. at this point, we've got to suspect there's something real there. but after 152 ab, it's likely that that .921 and .324 are both at least a little high, and even if they're not, his avg should be .298, not .323. this is one old diamondback that's not gonna work out.
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