julien's baseball blog

Some moves are slightly good. Some moves are slightly bad. I tell you about them.
Monday, November 29, 2004
 
third base wrap-up
we forgot to talk about fielding. ok, i forgot to talk about fielding.

in our last article we had the following difference makers:

1. adrian beltre
2. melvin mora
3. aramis ramirez
4. scott rolen
5. mike lowell

and the following strong contributors:

6. eric chavez
7. alex rodriguez
8. chipper jones
9. hank blalock
10. shea hillenbrand
11. casey blake
12. bill mueller
13. troy glaus

shea hillenbrand shouldn't be here because he played first base. what about the rest? how was their defense?

beltre led the league with 6.1 defensive win shares. so he's still number one. mora had a 2.4. that sounds like bad luck, but he falls, because rolen had a 5.6, and lowell had a 5.1. ramirez, with a 2.8, ends up at 5th.

then we have the two best defenders in the american league. chavez this year got a 3.9 in limited action, and arod got a 5.7. neither moves up in rank, but that kind of defense is worth an upgrade to difference maker. now we have seven, which is way too many.

1. beltre
2. rolen
3. lowell
4. mora
5. ramirez
6. chavez
7. rodriguez

the rest of the guys (not guys, strong contributors):
chipper jones 2.9 (limited action)
hank blalock 5.8
casey blake 3.4
bill mueller 3.5 (missed a bit)
troy glaus 0.4 (limited)

useless data:


Player Team POS Bat Pitch Field ExpWS WSP WSAA Total
S Rolen STL 3B 32.5 0.0 5.6 16 1.156 22 38
A Beltre LAD 3B 31.2 0.0 6.1 18 1.031 19 37
M Lowell FLO 3B 20.7 0.0 5.1 18 .703 7 26
A Ramirez CHC 3B 19.1 0.0 2.8 16 .665 5 22
D Bell PHI 3B 16.0 0.0 4.4 16 .624 4 20
C Jones ATL 3B 16.5 0.0 2.9 15 .644 4 19
R Freel CIN 3B 15.8 0.0 2.9 15 .610 3 19
S Burroughs SDP 3B 13.1 0.0 2.8 15 .522 1 16
E Alfonzo SFG 3B 13.0 0.0 2.9 15 .517 1 16
V Castilla COL 3B 11.5 0.0 4.0 17 .458 -1 15
T Batista MON 3B 8.6 0.0 4.7 18 .380 -4 13
M Lamb HOU 3B 10.2 0.0 1.7 8 .718 4 12
C Tracy ARI 3B 8.1 0.0 2.7 14 .377 -3 11
M Ensberg HOU 3B 8.2 0.0 2.1 12 .413 -2 10
D Wright NYM 3B 8.1 0.0 1.0 8 .592 1 9
T Wigginton NYM 3B 5.7 0.0 1.4 9 .384 -2 7
R Branyan MIL 3B 4.1 0.0 1.6 5 .573 1 6
J Macias CHC 3B 2.2 0.0 1.4 5 .351 -2 4
W Helms MIL 3B 2.7 0.0 1.3 8 .241 -4 4
J Castro CIN 3B 2.1 0.0 1.9 8 .238 -4 4
T Wigginton PIT 3B 2.5 0.0 1.1 6 .315 -2 3

Player Team POS Bat Pitch Field ExpWS WSP WSAA Total
A Rodriguez NYY 3B 24.4 0.0 5.7 18 .842 12 30
M Mora BAL 3B 22.7 0.0 2.4 16 .797 9 25
H Blalock TEX 3B 19.3 0.0 5.8 18 .699 7 25
A Huff TBD 3B 17.6 0.0 2.4 16 .621 4 20
C Figgins ANA 3B 15.7 0.0 4.4 16 .611 4 20
E Chavez OAK 3B 15.0 0.0 3.9 15 .647 4 19
C Blake CLE 3B 13.6 0.0 3.4 17 .505 0 17
C Koskie MIN 3B 11.2 0.0 2.8 13 .554 1 14
B Inge DET 3B 9.5 0.0 3.0 12 .515 0 12
B Mueller BOS 3B 8.8 0.0 3.5 12 .514 0 12
J Randa KC 3B 9.0 0.0 3.3 14 .452 -1 12
M Cuddyer MIN 3B 7.6 0.0 2.9 10 .531 1 10
T Glaus ANA 3B 8.5 0.0 0.4 5 .876 4 9
E Munson DET 3B 7.2 0.0 1.7 9 .486 0 9
R Quinlan ANA 3B 7.4 0.0 1.1 4 .939 4 8
K Youkilis BOS 3B 5.8 0.0 2.3 6 .624 2 8
E Martinez SEA 3B 7.8 0.0 0.0 10 .389 -2 8
J Cabrera SEA 3B 5.2 0.0 2.5 10 .387 -2 8
J Crede CHW 3B 5.6 0.0 2.9 15 .293 -6 8
E Hinske TOR 3B 3.9 0.0 3.8 16 .235 -9 8
S Spiezio SEA 3B 0.9 0.0 2.8 11 .176 -7 4
D Relaford KC 3B 1.4 0.0 2.6 11 .181 -7 4
W Bloomquist SEA 3B 1.6 0.0 1.3 5 .262 -3 3


i should have mentioned figgins. he comes in as a strong contributor. i'll talk about him when i do center field.

check the links for the rest of the data.
 
bullshit alert
it is my duty to report these things:


The Pirates' youth movement showed some promise in 2004 despite a 72-89 record with good seasons from Perez, All-Star shortstop Jack Wilson, NL Rookie of the Year Jason Bay and rookie second baseman Jose Castillo.


jason bay got lucky. he strikes out too much. jose castillo is terrible. and he strikes out too much. but he is only 23. i have to say that to cover my bases. but it's unlikely he'll ever be good. he'd have to improve in all areas.
 
i'm an exhibitionist
i got a woman it's not eve it's sara i really dodged a bullet. we
hooked up and i wrote about it and she liked it. she's great. sara.
really sweet. i'm in love. of course. super smart she plays chess with
me and she challenges all my ideas and she's hot. i don't know i don't
know i don't know this might be it i've been in that frame of mind.
one of those girls that looks hot with clothes but then the clothes
come off and you realize how hot. long legs smooth skin perfect body
she plays piano and sings beautiful voice i wanna have children with
her i wanna have jewish children. her voice is so sexy everything she
does is so sexy she's really into me. i wanna learn hebrew. she's not
religious but she would be so much hotter if she were maybe i'll try
to get her into it.

so things are good yeah the thing with beane the a's give a mil a year
for two years then 2007 they get 5 mil. so that fixes all his payroll
problems with the dump of dye and yeah the players he unloaded are
crap. he signed those contracts i don't know why i guess he figured he
could trade them but kendall is the real deal. super contact he's
gonna work out great in the west. a's offense looks really good. beane
is building a team that can compete in the playoffs.

pittsburgh, it turns out, is just another small-market club.
littlefield knows his stuff but he's forced to say bullshit like "The
formula of one player eating up a significant portion of the payroll
just doesn't work." i still don't really know why he made this trade
he's only saving a few million a year i guess he saves 8 million in
2007 but he's gonna have trouble making up those wins. poor oliver
perez. the only player on a crappy team. jack wilson. that's it.

yeah vizquel. sabean thinks it's signing veterans that brings him
success his left fielder has fucked his reality. you are correct about
all your observations.

the other thing i was gonna say is i'm reading castaneda's "the art of
dreaming." good stuff.

i think i'm gonna post this whole thing on the blog.

On Thu, 25 Nov 2004 20:44:56 -0800 (PST), charles horecker wrote:
> i know the other thing i was thinking about. vizquel.
> for 12 mil and three years vizquel is not the answer
> for the giants who will always be a contender with
> barry. really. 12 mil for three years of a ss who will
> be 38! when the season starts. only 38. he isnt barry
> for christ sake. itr could be worse. it could be troy
> percival. and why did the indians resign wickman. hes
> terrible. and for the low low price of 2.75 mil. come
> on.
>
> on a smaller note why did the twins sign juan castro
> to back up for two years at a mil a year. couldnt they
> bring up a kid from the farm to do just as well for
> league minimum.
>
> ah. but now the real deal. why i am writing. jason
> kendall for redman and that piece of shite arthur
> rhodes. what do you think about that. kendall is
> overpaid. but great. i am surprised beane feels that
> he can take on the cost, though he would be shedding a
> bunch of salary in rhodes and redman, and he did just
> dump dye. so i dont know. it would be a great trade
> for oakland i think. and the pirates wouldnt really be
> picking anything up. nothing that will matter later
> on, which is the only time something could matter for
> the pirates.
>
> pedro will not sign with the yankees.
> found gabe shacked up with his whore in north
> thailand. terrible bitch but he is a glutton for
> punishment. i just now am beginning to grasp the full
> extent. its 70 everyday and a fried fish is a dollar
> fifty. the girls are brown and smooth the living is
> easy. i bet this doesnt send. peace.
Wednesday, November 24, 2004
 
fish in a barrel
here's a bunch of hogwash. i thought i'd comment on it.


Inside Dish: A's explore trade involving Kendall
By Ken Rosenthal - SportingNews

Headshot
Logo

In addition to exploring trades for one of their top three starting pitchers, the A's are also involved in two- and three-team discussions regarding Pirates C Jason Kendall, who is guaranteed $34 million over the next three seasons. A straight trade between the A's and Pirates likely would involve the Pirates receiving LHPs Mark Redman and Arthur Rhodes, who are owed $16.15 million combined over the next two seasons. Kendall also could land with the Dodgers--straight up or via the A's--with the Pirates possibly seeking Dodgers CF Milton Bradley. The expected loss of free-agent CF Steve Finley makes a trade of Bradley unlikely. . . .

jason kendall is a lot more valuable than mark redman and arthur rhodes, who have to be considered mistakes by billy beane. but it is hard to believe the a's would take on that kind of salary.

Braves officials scoff at reports that the team offered 2B Marcus Giles for one of the A's pitchers. Giles, however, is not untouchable, even though he is a favorite of Braves G.M. John Schuerholz. Nick Green filled in capably when Giles was injured last season, and 2B Pete Orr batted .320 at Class AAA Richmond.

nick green is not a major league quality second baseman. and pete orr sucks. he makes contact, but he doesn't walk and he doesn't hit for power.

and marcus giles is not gonna be traded. he's a killer, and he's cheap as hell. nobody trades cheap, young superstars.

> Here's yet another reason why the Cardinals covet Diamondbacks LHP Randy Johnson in a trade: Johnson is 12-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 13 career starts against the Cubs, including 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in five starts at Wrigley Field. Cubs 1B Derrek Lee and 3B Aramis Ramirez are 7-for-39 combined (.179) against Johnson, with 25 strikeouts and two walks. > Though Jermaine Dye, Richard Hidalgo and Moises Alou are among the best second-tier free-agent outfielders, the Twins' Jacque Jones is attracting trade interest from several clubs. Jones might command $6 million in his final year of arbitration, but teams such as the Mariners, Orioles and Tigers could absorb that salary. . . .

jermaine dye sucks, richard hidalgo sucks, and jacque jones is not worth six million dollars.

It's a long shot, but the Royals could become a suitor for free-agent OF Magglio Ordonez if they fail to obtain a young corner outfielder and Ordonez fails to land a multiyear deal with another club. The Royals signed RF Juan Gonzalez under similar circumstances last offseason, but Ordonez figures to be in greater demand than Gonzalez was. . . .

the rest of these things are done deals.

The Tigers overpaid by awarding RHP Troy Percival a two-year, $12 million contract, but the closer should benefit from pitching at spacious Comerica Park. What's more, Percival never has allowed an earned run against the division rival Twins, a streak that spans 40 innings. His 6.68 career ERA against the Indians, however, is his highest against any A.L. opponent. . . .

wow, everything in that paragraph is true. useless, but true.

The Devil Rays are willing to trade any of their five highest-priced players--IF Aubrey Huff, C Toby Hall, IF Julio Lugo, RF Jose Cruz and closer RHP Danys Baez--but not for cost-cutting reasons. "If we could get the right young player or two and free up money to get another player, then we're getting two or three for one," G.M. Chuck LaMar says. Huff is the least likely to depart. . . .

if the devil rays can get anything for any of those players, they should do it.

Look for the Padres to make a run at free-agent RHP Woody Williams if they fail to re-sign LHP David Wells. Williams, 38, is three years younger than Wells and keeps himself in better shape. Plus, he pitched for the Padres from 1999 to 2001. . . .

no one is in better shape than david wells.

The Tigers' signing of SS Carlos Guillen to a three-year, $14 million extension last June is starting to look like a steal. Guillen, 29, is a better player than Omar Vizquel, 37, who negotiated a three-year, $12.25 million contract with the Giants, or Cristian Guzman, 26, who received a four-year, $16.8 million deal from Washington. Their career on-base/slugging percentages: Guillen, .767; Vizquel, .699; Guzman, .685.

does anyone remember when wells had gout? that was hilarious. look, i'm not trying to be mean, it's just so easy. i mean, did this guy think about his column before he wrote it? i guess i shouldn't talk. i don't write anything anymore.
Sunday, November 21, 2004
 
third base
the hardball times has win shares. it's too bad because it used to be on baseball graphs and they had defensive innings but they don't do that (tht).

win shares are valuable because they give us a rough measure of defensive value. we're gonna talk about players by position. starting with third base. why third base? it's the new hitter's position. yeah the great shift is now complete: the hitter positions are on the corners and the fielder positions are in the middle.

win shares has the right name but the wrong execution. it's not based on who contributes the most to a team's wins, but rather who contributes the most to runs being scored (or prevented). thus, like most stathead measures, it undervalues a hitter's ability to make contact, while correspondingly overvaluing patience and power. it also undervalues defense. for pitchers, it undervalues the ability to strike folks out.

but we're talking about hitters. yes, and fielders.

third base:

ok so the first thing we're gonna talk about is hitting. we have four categories: difference makers, strong contributors, up-and-comers, and guys.

a difference maker is someone who contributes on the order of 10 wins. walking is good, obviously, because it gets you on base. contact is underrated, because it helps most in low-run situations, and sabermetricians fail to recognize the value of low-run situations. power is also obviously good. so who's the number one difference maker?


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
beltre,adrian 602 55 87 48 32 .084 .855 .155 .334


48 home runs in dodger stadium. nobody saw that coming. and he's still only 25. that's great con, in a low-con environment, and great power with that con. i would estimate he gave his team 15-20 wins (above replacement, which is about 42). the dodgers won 93. where'd the rest come from? gagne, izturis, cora, bradley, loduca, in that order. green.

the next three difference-makers are all very close in rank. i'll present them together.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
mora,melvin 553 77 95 27 41 .122 .828 .148 .340
ramirez,aramis 554 52 62 36 33 .086 .888 .140 .318
rolen,scott 507 85 92 34 36 .144 .819 .169 .314


melvin mora has not gotten the respect he deserves. he went from shortstop to center field to third base, and he has absolutely raked the past two years.

aramis ramirez, that con is retarded. and he's only 26.

scott rolen is good too.

the next guy is almost there with those guys, but falls barely short.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
lowell,mike 601 69 77 27 45 .103 .872 .137 .293


that's the complete package right there. ahh, the marlins. if only they'd had josh beckett (for the whole season).

that's it. 5 difference makers, hitting-wise. that's a lot. if we had 5 difference makers from each (non-pitching) position, we'd have 40 difference makers (not counting dh's). and there are not 40 difference makers among position players in the major leagues. now let's look at the strong contributors.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
chavez,eric 479 98 99 29 20 .170 .793 .129 .276


with that wal, in oakland coliseum, a little more playing time and he's a difference maker. but see below.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
rodriguez,alex 608 90 131 36 26 .129 .785 .130 .286


as a shortstop, that hitting makes him a difference maker. but as a third baseman, he's a strong contributor. btw, there's no way he breaks the home run record. those strikeouts are getting ugly.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
jones,chipper 479 88 96 30 21 .155 .800 .133 .248


this placement is based on talent level. chipper was terribly unlucky this year while fighting through injury and a position change. his con should be much higher. it will be next year.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
blalock,hank 632 81 149 32 41 .114 .764 .151 .276


that strikeout rate is worrisome, especially in texas. he's young; he could bring it up.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
hillenbrand,sh 568 36 49 15 39 .060 .914 .104 .310


with that con, he can hit anybody. waitaminnit, he's not a third baseman. whatever he's a strong contributor.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
blake,casey 590 77 139 28 39 .115 .764 .149 .271


pretty much the same numbers as blalock. in a tougher park (normal, instead of funhouse). why is he ranked lower? (1) he's older, so we don't expect as much improvement; (2) fewer plate appearances.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
mueller,bill 405 55 56 12 28 .120 .862 .115 .283


above average in every area. that's a quality performer in all situations.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
glaus,troy 208 34 52 18 12 .140 .750 .192 .251


he's supposed to be in his physical prime, but troy glaus keeps getting injured. what's he gonna do next year? hell if i know.

so he's a strong contributor if he's healthy. now for the up-and-comers.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
burroughs,sean 523 40 52 2 26 .071 .901 .059 .298


all sean burroughs needs is a little power. at 24, he's a good bet to get it.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
youkilis,kevin 211 37 45 7 11 .149 .787 .108 .260


kevin youkilis filled in nicely for the red sox in bill mueller's absence. he's 25, and he does everything, especially walk. also took third when bellhorn was out, with mueller shifting to second. that was a good lineup for them.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
wright,david 266 17 40 14 18 .060 .850 .142 .293


i predicted it would take a while for david wright to learn contact. it didn't.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
tracy,chad 486 45 60 8 31 .085 .877 .092 .285


high quality production. he's 24.

the final up-and-comer isn't in the majors yet, but he will be. he just finished a year of aa in which he slugged .525. today is his 21st birthday. he can drink now! his name is andy marte. happy birthday, andy!

the rest are guys.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
ensberg,morgan 415 36 46 10 23 .080 .889 .089 .275


in 2004, he was just a guy. but ensberg hit the crap out of the ball in 2003. is he done? maybe. but his contact went way up. there's a slight chance he'll put it all together.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
batista,tony 616 28 78 32 32 .043 .873 .119 .241


tony batista is an enigma. great contact and great power, but he just can't take a pitch. maybe one day he'll learn.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
castilla,vinny 591 57 113 35 46 .088 .809 .169 .271


moved to colorado and his con went down. that's not supposed to happen. terrible acquisition for the expos (nationals, whatever).


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
hinske,eric 576 58 109 15 26 .091 .811 .088 .246


what the hell happened to eric hinske? he should be in his prime.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
bell,david 538 63 75 18 34 .105 .861 .112 .291
alfonzo,edgard 523 50 40 11 27 .087 .924 .079 .289
feliz,pedro 508 23 85 22 36 .043 .833 .137 .276


another guy who'd be a lot better with a little more patience.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
mackowiak,rob 498 56 114 17 28 .101 .771 .117 .246
crede,joe 495 44 81 21 25 .082 .836 .111 .239


it looked like he was gonna make it. then he was a white sock.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
randa,joe 493 46 77 8 33 .085 .844 .099 .289
koskie,corey 427 61 103 25 26 .125 .759 .157 .251
zeile,todd 350 45 83 9 16 .114 .763 .094 .233
munson,eric 321 35 90 19 16 .098 .720 .152 .212
derosa,mark 315 26 53 3 16 .076 .832 .073 .239


unlucky with hits, but no one cares.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
castro,juan 300 14 51 5 23 .045 .830 .112 .244
helms,wes 276 30 60 4 14 .098 .783 .083 .263


not good.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
easley,damion 225 32 36 9 21 .125 .840 .159 .238


retarded numbers. probably due to small sample size.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
carroll,jamey 221 33 21 0 16 .130 .905 .080 .289


actually a second baseman. jamey carroll has the same exact birthday as me. you know, if he could add a little power, he'd be a superstar.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
hernandez,jose 211 27 61 13 13 .113 .711 .173 .289
merloni,lou 193 17 41 4 13 .081 .788 .112 .289
bloomquist,wil 188 10 48 2 10 .051 .745 .086 .245
perez,tomas 177 10 44 6 15 .053 .751 .158 .216
stynes,chris 162 11 23 1 10 .064 .858 .079 .216
branyan,russel 160 22 68 11 12 .121 .575 .250 .234


.575? you gotta be kiddin me.


aab w k hr 23 wal con pow avg
ventura,robin 153 22 31 5 3 .126 .797 .066 .243
larson,brandon 119 16 35 3 6 .119 .706 .107 .212
rolls,damian 119 11 36 0 5 .085 .697 .060 .162
clark,howie 117 13 15 3 6 .100 .872 .088 .217
halter,shane 114 7 30 4 5 .058 .737 .107 .202
hummel,tim 111 10 17 1 4 .083 .847 .053 .218
green,andy 110 7 17 1 3 .060 .845 .043 .202
leone,justin 103 12 32 6 5 .104 .689 .155 .204

ouch. the strikeouts. ouchskies.
Saturday, November 20, 2004
 
letter from aziz
Re: the Yankees being lucky. They are TWELVE games over their
Pythagorean wins. The next biggest is 5, which about 4-5 teams have.
The Braves, BoSox and Astros are right on. The Cubs are down 6, which
is the biggest drop.

I'm not a big proponent of Pythagorean wins, but 12 is insane. I just
might bet against them in the playoffs.

Oakland can score on anyone, that's true. But they do have a
statistically mediocre offense. I suppose their park has something to
do with that. Anaheim's looks even worse, but they have injuries to key
players to blame for that. Anderson and Glaus both missed a ton of
time.

How about them Astros? And those god awful Cubs (as you said, .327 team
OBP). Sad. The Astros can definitely knock someone off. Wait, that
would be the Braves. Shit... We can handle them. Chipper got hit in
the wrist today. But they didn't even bother to X-ray so it can't be
that bad.

Speaking of the Braves... Since the break we have a .358 OBP, which is
tied with the SF Bonds's for 1st in the NL. We also have the best team
ERA in baseball, #2 rotation and #5 pen. We're only #19 in K/9 (Anaheim
has a 9.02/9 for their pen!!!), which says a lot about our defense (and
park, as always).

Yeah everyone talks about Beltre, but Izturis was huge too.

I don't mind so much if Barry is on steroids. The fact is that I'm
positive it's true though. The morality of it is up to others. I'm
with you that I don't care because so many others are on them too. It
actually may be a very big factor in the offensive explosion of the past
decade. Pitchers don't have any good juice.

I agree that RJ should win the CY, but he won't. But I don't think
Clemens is a bad choice. I think he's clearly in the top 4-5 starters
(RJ, Sheets, Schmidt, Zambrano... Peavy missed too much time), and top 8
if you include Gagne and Lidge. His walconpow is very very good, and
he's in a hitters park. He doesn't deserve it, but I look at his
numbers and they are exceptional.

-----Original Message-----
From: julien headley
Sent: Wednesday, September 29, 2004 12:04 AM
To: aziz al-doory
Subject: RE: From Rotoworld

arizona, yeah, ha!

injuries to sexson and gonzales combined with down years from young
players combined with really bad luck. we should have realized that
last year was lucky for them. and curt schilling is a big deal.

la i think the improvements from beltre, izturis, and cora were what did
it. mostly beltre. jesus. and bradley helped. and i should have thought
about just how handy it is to have eric gagne. the dodgers are built for
their park like no other team. contact hitting, fly ball pitching . . .
it's
beautiful.

marlins/detroit: turns out pudge is a big deal. plus improvements by
young tigers, like omar infante and brandon inge. and how bout
carlos guillen!

cardinals, yeah. jeez.

i don't think the a's offense is bad. chavez is a great hitter, as is
hatteberg. durazo is good, kotsay is good, byrnes is good. then it's
guys. the thing about them is they can score against anybody.

looks like they're tied in the west. reminds you how good vlad is.

the yankees have been *really* lucky this year, considering their
injuries. but it also goes to show you what a great manager joe
torre is. him, cox, showalter, larussa. that's the top tier.

they don't have the team to win in the postseason, though. not
enough contact hitting. not enough pitching, strangely enough.
not enough defense. too old. none of these things make much
difference in the regular season, but it'll add up in the playoffs.

the astros i think had a lot of bad luck, and weird managing, and
their offense didn't really come together until that winning streak.
plus after clemens and oswalt they had problems. beltran has been
huge for them. and craig biggio . . . they said he was too old, but
he just keeps hittin.

i just figured out what it is about the cubs---their offense is bad.
sammy sosa sucks. corey patterson strikes out way too much. lee
also strikes out a bunch. ramirez is good and alou is pretty good
and barrett has had a nice year, but there's just nothing there.
they can't beat good pitching. nomar is good but his health is a
question.

turns out dusty baker is not a good manager. it was his left fielder
won all those games in san francisco.

my thing about barry and steroids is i don't care. everybody is on
something, and the line is so blurry that you can't say anything
meaningful anyway. i guess people just have a need to hate.

mauer, yeah, i didn't think he'd develop power so quickly. hope
his knees hold up.

in other news, ichiro suzuki is a motherfucker. he's my other
choice for mvp. or gary sheffield cause he's a warrior.

nl cy? to me it's gotta be rj. but it doesn't look like he'll get it.
sheets has been good, but same problem. lidge would be a good
choice, but he won't get it because he doesn't have enough
saves. i just hope they don't give it to clemens.

----Original Message Follows----
From: "Aziz Al-Doory"
To: "'julien headley'"
Subject: RE: From Rotoworld
Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2004 18:55:33 -0400


Yeah there's no clear cut MVP candidate in the AL either. Obv. it's no
contest in the NL. I think Santana allowed 1 earned run in September.

That bet never happened as we agreed it would be called off if either
player was traded. Too bad for me.

We have a $500 bet on who finishes higher, the Marlins or the Phillies.
It was looking like a slam dunk for me, but now the Marlins are 1 game
behind the Phils. I couldn't watch the Braves/Marlins the other day as
I had a rooting conundrum. I would never root against the Braves, but
they had clinched and are unlikely to fall behind LA... and I still
couldn't do it. I guess I can't root against the Braves no matter what.

Thinking back to other predictions...

Arizona.. oops.

LA.. I thought so! DePodesta was no small part of my prediction, I
thought he'd be able to improve the team. Some of the moves were
questionable, but I've looked deeper and they were better than I
thought. Especially since it appeared the deal for RJ was done.

Giants.. I tell you he's done steroids. His HAT SIZE has changed.
That does not happen in the weight room. Regardless, they are as always,
a better team than I predicted them to be. You had them pegged pretty
well.

St. Louis.. Lucky bullpen, maybe lucky rotation, and insane offense
(which we knew.. and who didn't? But it was more insane than we
thought. Rolen and Edmonds are having their best years, among some
others)

Braves.. You told me so. I gave up when Giles got hurt. Mazzone is
our MVP (again).

Mets.. lol. Unless they pull a Jaret Wright on Zambrano, they lost out
bigtime with those trades. Jesus.

Cubs.. suckas. Might make it anyway.

Astros.. Can't figure them out. Is their defense bad? Pen got a
little thin after trading Dotel.. Have to look at how their pen has
performed as a group.

Yankees.. fuckers. Not sure how I feel about their post season
chances. Very little Giambi, Mussina stinking, Vazquez stinking, and
still they may win 100 games.

BoSox.. Please beat the Yankees.

A's.. I got you on this one. Weak offense and pen like I said. Which
brings me to:

Angels.. I think I predicted 95 wins. They are at 89 with 6 left, so
they probably won't make it. But they might win the division.

Rangers.. What the? Almost this year's Marlins. Didn't quite have
enough in the rotation to make it.

Twins.. You said it. I didn't realize how good their pen was.
Santana's blowup was predicted by you and others, but jesus. Mauer was
better than advertised in his short, injury plagued season. You may
have a few things to take back.. Or not. :)

ChiSox: I maintain they'd be in it (as much as an AL central team can
be "in it") if Mags and the Big Hurt didn't miss most of the season.



-----Original Message-----
From: julien headley
Sent: Tuesday, September 28, 2004 12:29 AM
To: aziz al-doory
Subject: RE: From Rotoworld

i'm startin to think he's the mvp.

looks like you'll win that bet with pikula:
zito 4.54
lilly 3.92


----Original Message Follows----
From: "Aziz Al-Doory"
To: julien headley
Subject: From Rotoworld
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 13:55:26 -0400

hehe...

"In what was no surprise, Johan Santana was selected as the AL Player of
the
Week.
He pitched 15 scoreless innings in his two victories last week. The
truth
is, we're getting bored of telling you how good Santana is."
 
letters
all true. also carl pavano isn't as good as people think.

the expos are fucking up all over the place. except they're selling
tickets, which is their goal. they shouldn't have dumped rivera and
izturis for guillen. guillen's a good player at a good price, but
rivera's almost as good and cheaper and younger. he's gonna hit in
2005. funny, the angels don't have a place for him.

izturis i haven't studied but you like him, which is something, i suppose.

are the yankees gonna sign pedro? somehow it doesn't matter anymore.
now that the sox have won, none of that shit matters.


On Thu, 18 Nov 2004 23:05:23 -0800 (PST), charles horecker wrote:
> the expos fucked up signing castilla. guzman may pay
> off as he is only 26. if the cubs could dump sosa that
> would be brilliant. if they could avoid signing
> garciaparra that would also be brilliant. but i say
> fuck em they suck. the mets are mired in shit forever.
> i hope they pay kris benson. i dont know whatelse. the
> tigers overpaid troy percival.
 
new
this is what i reed. i reed rotoworld cause it gives me information. i don't know where else to get information. if anyone has any ideas, post a comment. also, if anyone has a blog, post a comment or send a letter. i wanna see it.

so every day or two i reed rotoworld and shout about how stupid they are. i thought i'd share it with you.

Jake Peavy - S - Padres

Jake Peavy tossed six scoreless innings today as the MLB All-Stars beat the Japanese All-Stars 5-0 to take the eight-game series 5-3.
Vernon Wells went 3-for-4 with a homer to finish the series with a .407 average. David Ortiz also homered. Nov. 14 - 4:21 am et


jake peavy is good. so is vernon wells. so is david ortiz.

Francisco Rosario - S - Blue Jays

Francisco Rosario, Manny Delcarmen and Mike Johnston combined on a rare Arizona Fall League shutout yesterday.
Rosario worked four innings and lowered his ERA to 5.84. He's struck out 28 in 24 2/3 IP, but he's given up 25 hits and walked 14. He's still working to regain his command after undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing 2003. Nov. 13 - 5:37 pm et


the arizona fall league is a very small sample size. rosario is 24 and in aa. so that's not good. but yeah he had that arm injury. what did he do before that? he had some good ratios: 78/14 k/bb in 66.7 innings in the sally league, 65/25 in the florida state league. so that's not terrible but that was at the age of 22 which is still not young. take an aspirin and call me when he does something.

delcarmen is 22. he struck out 76 and walked 20 in 73 innings in the florida state league. also nothing special.

johnston is a lefty. he's 25. he threw 15 innings in aaa this year. he's nobody.

Mark Woodyard - S - Tigers

Mark Woodyard pitched two hitless innings of relief to earn the win for Grand Canyon of the AFL yesterday.
Woodyard had a 3.52 ERA in nine starts and 34 relief appearances for Double-A Erie last season. Interestingly, he has 16 Ks in 14 1/3 IP in the AFL after fanning just 55 batters in 102 1/3 IP in the minors. The Tigers see him as someone who could turn into a useful reliever. Nov. 13 - 5:32 pm et

woodyard turns 26 in december. he sucks.

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Jorge Cantu - 2B - Devil Rays

Jorge Cantu homered and singled yesterday for Culiacan of the Mexican Pacific League.
Cantu is hitting .364/.424/.701 and has driven in 22 runs in 19 games for the Tomato Growers. Nov. 13 - 5:25 pm et

cantu is gonna make it. he's young, and he hits for average and power. if he ever learns to take a pitch, he'll be a superstar.

Matt Childers - R - Brewers

Minor league free agent Matt Childers worked five shutout innings for Hermosillo of the Mexican Pacific League.
Childers, who had a 4.87 ERA while splitting time between the rotation and the pen for Triple-A Indianapolis last season, has yet to allow a run in 8 1/3 innings in Mexico. Nov. 13 - 5:23 pm et

why do the tell us about these terrible people? can they not tell these guys are terrible?

Fernando Nieve - S - Astros

Fernando Nieve tossed five scoreless innings yesterday in his first start for Oriente of the Venezuelan Winter League.
Nieve boosted his stock last year with a very impressive showing in his native Venezuela. The 22-year-old is arguably Houston's top pitching prospect. Nov. 13 - 5:04 pm et

if he's their top pitching prospect, houston's in trouble. nieve is 22. his strikeout numbers are not good. he may have some ability limiting home runs. he's thrown too many innings.

Seung Song - S - Blue Jays

Blue Jays claimed RHP Seung Song off waivers from the Expos.
Not a great start for Expos GM Jim Bowden. Most organizations could have gotten away with giving up on Song, whose velocity is down from the days in which he was viewed as a top prospect. The Expos aren't most organizations, though. Top to bottom, they have as little talent as any team in the game. Unless Bowden has some very pleasant surprises in store, he's not going to come up with better uses for the final spots on his 40-man roster. Song will probably open next season with Triple-A Syracuse. He's still a potential fourth or fifth starter. Nov. 13 - 4:59 pm et

if rotoworld says he's a potential fourth or fifth starter, i'm guessing he sucks. let's see. yep.

Steve Finley - OF - Dodgers

The Dodgers have made an offer to keep free agent Steve Finley.
The Angels, Phillies, Rangers, Giants, Padres, Diamondbacks, Orioles and Mariners have each demonstrated some level of interest in Finley, who now apparently is willing to consider American League and East Coast teams. "The team that shows a commitment to winning is the team that will land Steve Finley," said agent Tommy Tanzer. Finley isn't likely to sign before the Dec. 7 arbitration deadline. Nov. 13 - 2:19 pm et
Source: Philadelphia Daily News

Dustin Hermanson - R - Giants

The Indians would prefer Armando Benitez, but they're also considering Dustin Hermanson as a possible closer.
"I've talked to [Indians GM Mark Shapiro] several times, and the interest is significant," said Casey Close, Hermanson's agent. "I think he has tremendous upside as a closer." Benitez wants a three- or a four-year deal worth at least $5 million per season. Hermanson would require a much smaller commitment. Nov. 13 - 2:12 pm et
Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer

Casey Blake - 3B - Indians

Casey Blake, along with Victor Martinez, is one of the players the Indians have approached about a multiyear deal.
The Indians want to get some of their arbitration eligible players locked up beyond 2005. Jake Westbrook is another possibility for a two- or a three-year deal. Travis Hafner would be, but the team is a little concerned about his elbow. Nov. 13 - 2:10 pm et
Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer

Richie Sexson - 1B - Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks GM Joe Garagiola Jr. extended a new proposal to free agent Richie Sexson yesterday.
The contract better include more guaranteed money if the Diamondbacks hope to sign him. All indications are that he will go unless he gets a fully guaranteed three-year deal. The Diamondbacks want to include vesting options to protect themselves against another shoulder injury. Nov. 13 - 2:05 pm et
Source: East Valley Tribune

David Dellucci - OF - Rangers

The Diamondbacks offered free agent David Dellucci a contract yesterday.
The East Valley Tribune reports that the offer is for one year in the $800,000 range with a team option for 2006. We like this better than the idea of re-signing Danny Bautista, but Dellucci isn't a very good option as a regular. The Rangers, Dodgers and Rockies also have interest in the 31-year-old. Nov. 13 - 2:03 pm et
Source: East Valley Tribune

Jay Gibbons - OF - Orioles

The Orioles plan to open negotiations with non-tender candidate Jay Gibbons next week.
Gibbons would need to accept a contract worth close to his 2004 salary of $2.6 million in order to stay with the Orioles. If he opts to go to arbitration, the team would look to replace him. Though the Orioles do think he'll rebound offensively, they might prefer a right-handed bat and a superior defender. Nov. 13 - 1:55 pm et
Source: Baltimore Sun

Jose Guillen - OF - Angels

Jose Guillen, who was suspended for the last week of the season and the playoffs, said he would like to stay with the Angels if things can be worked out.
"First we would have to sit down and clear up everything that happened leading to my suspension," he said. It's still expected that Guillen will be traded. That the Angels could improve defensively by bringing in a center fielder and shifting Garret Anderson to left only makes the decision easier. Nov. 13 - 1:48 pm et
Source: The Associated Press

Armando Benitez - R - Marlins

Armando Benitez's agent, Mike Powers, doesn't expect to hear from the Marlins again following Wednesday's conversation.
The Marlins aren't going to attempt to come up with the money to re-sign Benitez. For now, the plan is to enter 2005 with Guillermo Mota as the closer. Maybe that will change if a cheap solution falls into their laps. Nov. 13 - 1:45 pm et
Source: Palm Beach Post

Sammy Sosa - OF - Cubs

The MLBPA reportedly won't stand in the way if Sammy Sosa decides to void the clause in his contract that guarantees his 2006 salary if he's traded.
The Players' Association doesn't want its members giving up guaranteed money, but since this is money Sosa is probably never going to see, it could be flexible. Sosa is far more likely to be traded if his $18 million option for 2006 isn't an issue. He'd still be owned $25 million ($17 million base salary, $4.5 million buyout and $3.5 million in severance pay), but that's much better than $39.5 million. Nov. 13 - 1:42 pm et
Source: Newark Star-Ledger

Charles Johnson - C - Rockies

The Rockies will continue talking to the Devil Rays, Cubs, A's and Brewers about a Charles Johnson trade.
It's believed that the Rays and Cubs are on the nine-team list of teams he's willing to be traded to. Johnson, though, said he would consider teams not on the list. The Cubs aren't looking to move Michael Barrett, so they'd only want Johnson if he came cheap. He'd replace Paul Bako as the backup. Nov. 13 - 1:31 pm et
Source: Denver Post

Mike DeJean - R - Mets

Although it's expected that he'll stay with the Mets, free agent Mike DeJean would be interested in returning to Colorado as a closer.
"I would be open to being anybody’s closer," DeJean said. "Coors Field is what it is. I would have no problem pitching there." Denny Neagle has also talked about being the Rockies' replacement for Shawn Chacon in the ninth inning. It would come as a major surprise if either gets the job. Nov. 13 - 1:28 pm et
Source: Denver Post

Eric Milton - S - Phillies

The Yankees could be close to signing Eric Milton to a three-year, $18 million conract, the Newark Star-Ledger reports.
The same paper yesterday reported that Milton would be getting a $21 million-$25 million offer from the team. They might still have the dollars wrong, but it is rather likely that Milton will rejoin the organization that drafted him. If they can get Milton signed early next week, the Yankees will then focus on Al Leiter, Carl Pavano and maybe Brad Radke. Nov. 13 - 1:24 pm et
Source: Newark Star-Ledger

Ron Villone - R - Mariners

The Yankees could sign both Ron Villone and Steve Kline for their bullpen.
Villone is receiving plenty of interest because he's left-handed, versatile and cheap. He hasn't posted an ERA under 4.00 since 1997, but he has been decent each of the last two years. Nov. 13 - 1:21 pm et
Source: Newark Star-Ledger

the yankees are idiots. if they want to compete, they better get some good players.
Friday, November 12, 2004
 
pitchers
i was in the library with my sister and i said "they should order books by goodness." so i did it with pitchers. numbers aren't exact because we didn't have sacrifice data.

Player bf w k hr wal con hrp era
johnson,randy 968 54 290 18 .056 .683 .029 2.60
santana,johan 903 63 265 24 .070 .685 .042 2.61

take your pick. rj faced more batters, but johan had that retarded second half.

sheets,ben 948 36 264 25 .038 .711 .039 2.70

definitely number 3. a wal that low with a con that low is, as the kids say, hard to do.

schilling,curt 926 40 203 23 .043 .771 .034 3.26

a postseason for the ages. what ages? i don't know, but they're gonna write about it for a long time. place it in historical context. i don't know, willis reed? why do i keep saying i don't know? i don't know.

martinez,pedro 921 77 227 26 .084 .731 .042 3.90

i had a dream last night where pedro said he grew up a cardinals fan.

oswalt,roy 1016 72 206 17 .071 .782 .023 3.49
clemens,roger 897 85 218 15 .095 .732 .025 2.98

yeah, oswalt faced more batters. clemens was better when he did pitch. clemens' last few years have put him clearly ahead of maddux historically.

perez,oliver 823 90 239 22 .109 .674 .045 2.98
schmidt,jason 920 80 251 18 .087 .701 .031 3.20
peavy,jake 709 64 173 13 .090 .732 .028 2.27

pretty close between these three. all are dominators.

zambrano,carlo 904 101 188 14 .112 .766 .023 2.75

raw talent. still working on harnessing it. fun to watch.

hernandez,liva 1092 93 186 26 .085 .814 .032 3.60

doesn't get the respect he deserves. that's what happens when you're an expo. for the record, i'd like to say "nationals" is a terrible name. it's the name of the league! you use it to distinguish the mets from the yankees, for example. people don't want to say "senators" because it failed twice, but that was because they were in the american league. a washington team should be in the national league. calling them senators would link them with history in a positive way. calling them "nationals" is just stupid.

wright,jaret 799 72 159 11 .090 .781 .019 3.28

dominant.

hudson,tim 816 56 103 8 .069 .864 .012 3.53

8 home runs!

radke,brad 920 32 143 23 .035 .839 .031 3.48

as we move down the list, the differences become smaller and smaller. the guys at the top make a real impact. the guys at the bottom are just guys.

davis,doug 900 86 166 14 .096 .796 .022 3.39

more ground balls this year = fewer home runs (per at-bat).

buehrle,mark 1052 59 165 33 .056 .834 .040 3.89

workhorse.

pavano,carl 939 60 139 16 .064 .842 .022 3.00

he was good, but the park helped.

kennedy,joe 725 75 117 17 .103 .820 .032 3.66

fantastic production in colorado.

garcia,freddy 893 71 184 22 .080 .776 .034 3.81

helped by first half in seattle.

escobar,kelvim 900 83 190 21 .092 .767 .033 3.93

still kelviming

arroyo,bronson 773 66 142 17 .085 .799 .030 4.03

great year in every respect except hair.

rogers,kenny 958 75 126 24 .078 .857 .032 4.76

great work in the park that makes mvp's.

harden,rich 824 84 167 16 .102 .774 .028 3.99
thomson,john 863 58 133 20 .067 .835 .030 3.72
maddux,greg 897 41 151 35 .046 .824 .050 4.02
lackey,john 878 68 144 22 .077 .822 .033 4.67
willis,dontrel 870 69 139 20 .079 .826 .030 4.02
lieber,jon 766 20 102 20 .026 .863 .031 4.33
westbrook,jake 920 65 116 19 .071 .864 .026 3.38

ground balls lead to success.

mussina,mike 714 42 132 22 .059 .804 .041 4.59
wells,david 812 22 101 23 .027 .872 .033 3.73
lopez,rodrigo 732 56 121 21 .077 .821 .038 3.59
bonderman,jere 803 83 168 24 .103 .767 .043 4.89

put it all together in september.

wakefield,tim 841 79 116 29 .094 .848 .045 4.87

how do you rank a knuckleballer?

clement,matt 787 89 190 23 .113 .728 .045 3.68
zito,barry 945 90 163 28 .095 .809 .040 4.48
sabathia,c.c. 819 79 139 20 .096 .812 .033 4.12
benson,kris 874 71 134 15 .081 .833 .022 4.31
lilly,ted 858 95 168 26 .111 .780 .044 4.06
williams,woody 829 67 131 20 .081 .828 .032 4.18
robertson,nate 870 70 155 30 .080 .806 .047 4.90
glavine,tom 911 70 109 20 .077 .870 .027 3.60
drese,ryan 924 68 98 16 .074 .886 .021 4.20
silva,carlos 904 40 76 23 .044 .912 .029 4.21
mulder,mark 995 95 140 25 .095 .844 .033 4.43
harang,aaron 717 57 125 26 .079 .811 .049 4.86

home run park.

weaver,jeff 960 81 153 19 .084 .826 .026 4.01
webb,brandon 947 129 164 17 .136 .800 .026 3.59

nowhere near last year. he'll be fine.

jennings,jason 952 108 133 27 .113 .842 .038 5.51

tough park.

lidle,cory 929 71 126 27 .076 .853 .037 4.90
colon,bartolo 914 74 158 38 .081 .812 .056 5.01

bad luck with the dingers.

wilson,paul 815 72 117 26 .088 .843 .042 4.36

bad park for dingers.

marquis,jason 899 80 138 26 .089 .832 .038 3.71
perez,odalis 816 47 128 26 .058 .834 .041 3.25

hrp too high for dodger stadium

maroth,mike 961 66 108 25 .069 .879 .032 4.31
tomko,brett 842 64 108 19 .076 .861 .028 4.04
lowe,derek 851 79 105 15 .093 .864 .022 5.42

bad hit luck.

vazquez,javier 859 70 150 33 .081 .810 .052 4.91

way worse than expected. must have been something wrong.

hampton,mike 781 66 87 15 .085 .878 .024 4.28
lawrence,brian 897 62 121 26 .069 .855 .036 4.12
ortiz,russ 926 115 143 23 .124 .824 .034 4.13

i don't know how he does it. with all those walks, he should be eating his hat. i don't know what that means, but i couldn't think of a way to finish that sentence.

leiter,al 767 108 117 16 .141 .822 .030 3.21
suppan,jeff 829 73 110 25 .088 .854 .039 4.16
ponson,sidney 989 77 115 23 .078 .874 .029 5.30
milton,eric 875 76 161 43 .087 .798 .067 4.75

the other homer park.

estes,shawn 945 116 117 30 .123 .859 .042 5.84

tough place to pitch.

fogg,josh 801 73 82 17 .091 .887 .026 4.64
eaton,adam 864 62 153 28 .072 .809 .043 4.61
trachsel,steve 899 88 117 25 .098 .856 .036 4.00
johnson,jason 877 65 125 22 .074 .846 .032 5.13
hendrickson,ma 813 52 87 21 .064 .886 .031 4.81
garland,jon 954 80 113 34 .084 .871 .045 4.89
morris,matt 873 62 131 35 .071 .838 .051 4.72
lima,jose 724 35 93 33 .048 .865 .055 4.07

lima time!

redman,mark 865 74 102 28 .086 .871 .041 4.71

not quite what the a's hoped.

lohse,kyle 905 83 111 28 .092 .865 .039 5.34
batista,miguel 901 99 104 22 .110 .870 .032 4.80
rueter,kirk 863 67 56 21 .078 .930 .028 4.73
franklin,ryan 896 71 104 33 .079 .874 .046 4.90
may,darrell 849 57 120 38 .067 .848 .057 5.61
lee,cliff 817 92 161 30 .113 .778 .053 5.43
acevedo,jose 711 50 117 30 .070 .823 .055 5.94
contreras,jose 769 92 150 31 .120 .778 .059 5.50

i still think he'll put it together, but we'll see.

myers,brett 792 68 116 31 .086 .840 .051 5.52
loaiza,esteban 840 74 117 32 .088 .847 .049 5.70
valdez,ismael 763 51 67 33 .067 .906 .051 5.19
moyer,jamie 897 74 125 44 .082 .848 .063 5.21
anderson,brian 769 54 70 33 .070 .902 .051 5.64
ishii,kazuhisa 773 102 99 21 .132 .852 .037 4.71

terrible for dodger stadium.

elarton,scott 706 66 103 33 .093 .839 .061 5.90

scott settled down after he left colorado. he should be ok next year.

well that's it! hope you enjoyed it. in closing, if you see genevieve treuille, tell her to go out with me.

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