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Monday, March 05, 2007
 
top prospects: astros
baseball america's top ten astros prospects (and my commentary, of course):


1. Hunter Pence, of
2. Troy Patton, lhp
3. Matt Albers, rhp
4. Jimmy Barthmaier, rhp
5. Juan Gutierrez, rhp
6. J.R. Towles, c
7. Paul Estrada, rhp
8. Felipe Paulino, rhp
9. Max Sapp, c
10. Chad Reineke, rhp


the astros are on the decline. their stars are getting old, and the system is not producing as it once did. this is not a very good list.


Career Batting Statistics for Hunter Pence:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2003 utarlingt NCAA 20 NCA 241 25 35 8 21 .094 .855 .141 .347
2004 utarlingt NCAA 21 NCA 193 18 23 8 13 .085 .881 .124 .395
2004 Tri City NYPL 21 Hou A- 201 24 30 8 19 .107 .851 .158 .296
2005 Lexington SAL 22 Hou A 302 39 53 25 17 .114 .825 .169 .338
2005 Salem Caro 22 Hou A+ 153 18 37 6 9 .105 .758 .129 .305
2006 Coprus Chr Tex 23 Hou AA 528 63 109 28 39 .107 .794 .160 .283


hunter pence has power, but he swings a little too much. should be a quality major leaguer.


Career Pitching Statistics for Troy Patton:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 Greenevlle App 18 Hou Rk 28.0 23 1 5 32 .045 .701 .013 1.93
2005 Lexington SAL 19 Hou A 78.2 59 3 20 94 .063 .681 .015 1.94
2005 Salem Caro 19 Hou A+ 41.0 34 2 8 38 .048 .758 .017 2.63
2006 Salem Caro 20 Hou A+ 101.1 92 4 37 102 .085 .742 .014 2.93
2006 Coprus Chr Tex 20 Hou AA 45.1 48 6 13 37 .066 .799 .041 4.37


troy patton is a lefty with good lefty skills (control, contact, mojo). he'll make it.


Career Pitching Statistics for Matthew Albers:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 Mrtnsville App 19 Hou Rk 59.2 61 2 38 72 .137 .700 .012 5.13
2003 Tri City NYPL 20 Hou A- 86.1 69 1 25 94 .071 .713 .004 2.92
2004 Lexington SAL 21 Hou A 111.1 95 3 57 140 .117 .674 .010 3.31
2005 Salem Caro 22 Hou A+ 148.2 161 15 62 146 .093 .759 .033 4.66
2006 Coprus Chr Tex 23 Hou AA 116.0 96 4 47 95 .096 .786 .011 2.17
2006 Round Rock PCL 23 Hou AAA 25.0 24 2 10 26 .092 .737 .027 3.96
2006 Houston MLB 23 Hou MLB 15.0 17 1 7 11 .101 .823 .020 6.00


matt albers i don't know why he's so highly rated. he had a bunch of strikeouts in the sally league three years ago.


Career Pitching Statistics for Jimmy Barthmaier:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 Mrtnsville App 19 Hou Rk 21.2 19 0 7 18 .077 .786 .000 2.49
2004 Greenevlle App 20 Hou Rk 69.0 70 3 22 65 .074 .765 .014 3.78
2005 Lexington SAL 21 Hou A 134.2 108 3 55 142 .097 .723 .008 2.27
2005 Salem Caro 21 Hou A+ 6.0 4 1 1 6 .043 .727 .063 1.50
2006 Salem Caro 22 Hou A+ 146.2 137 6 67 134 .104 .768 .014 3.62


jimmy barthmaier doesn't have really good control and doesn't really strike a lot of people out, but his home run limitation has been good.


Career Pitching Statistics for Juan Gutierrez:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 Mrtnsville App 20 Hou Rk 34.0 42 2 13 30 .083 .792 .018 4.76
2004 Greenevlle App 21 Hou Rk 65.2 74 4 30 59 .100 .782 .019 3.70
2005 Lexington SAL 22 Hou A 120.2 106 10 43 100 .084 .786 .027 3.21
2005 Salem Caro 22 Hou A+ 12.0 10 1 8 9 .148 .804 .027 3.00
2006 Coprus Chr Tex 23 Hou AA 103.2 94 10 34 106 .077 .738 .033 3.04


juan gutierrez has good control and pretty good contact percentages. he's got a future.


Career Batting Statistics for Justin Towles:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2004 Greenevlle App 20 Hou Rk 112 23 23 0 6 .170 .795 .067 .243
2005 Lexington SAL 21 Hou A 162 26 29 5 16 .138 .821 .158 .346
2006 Lexington SAL 22 Hou A 286 31 46 12 21 .098 .839 .138 .317


i really like this combination of contact and power that towles has exhibited. i wonder why his playing time has been limited, and why he hasn't played above middle-a.


Career Pitching Statistics for Paul Estrada:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 Mrtnsville App 19 Hou Rk 31.2 45 2 36 42 .205 .700 .020 11.65
2003 Mrtnsville App 20 Hou Rk 21.1 19 2 22 25 .210 .699 .034 5.48
2004 Tri City NYPL 21 Hou A- 41.2 26 4 17 56 .101 .629 .042 2.81
2005 Lexington SAL 22 Hou A 90.1 65 6 34 94 .092 .720 .025 2.69
2006 Coprus Chr Tex 23 Hou AA 88.2 61 10 37 134 .102 .590 .052 3.05


jesus. look at those strikeouts. estrada had serious control issues in the beginning of his pro career but he now has only mild control issues. i gotta say he's gonna make it. i mean look at those strikeouts.


Career Pitching Statistics for Felipe Paulino:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 Mrtnsville App 19 Hou Rk 25.2 23 0 19 27 .160 .730 .000 5.61
2004 Greenevlle App 20 Hou Rk 32.0 30 4 22 37 .149 .706 .045 7.59
2005 Tri City NYPL 21 Hou A- 30.2 21 2 11 34 .089 .699 .025 3.82
2005 Lexington SAL 21 Hou A 24.1 21 2 6 30 .060 .681 .031 1.85
2006 Salem Caro 22 Hou A+ 126.1 119 13 59 91 .106 .817 .032 4.35


there are two fellipe paulino del guidice pages on the the baseball cube. they should pay me for finding inconsistencies. anyway this kid had some good results before high-a but then his CON went way up. maybe he'll get it back.


Career Batting Statistics for Maxwell Sapp:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2006 Tri City NYPL 18 Hou A- 167 22 37 1 9 .116 .778 .077 .229


max sapp did very well as an 18-year-old in low-a. he should definitely be higher on this list.


Career Pitching Statistics for Chad Reineke:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 MiamiOhio NCAA 20 NCA 32.0 38 4 20 15 .130 .888 .034 4.22
2003 MiamiOhio NCAA 21 NCA 53.2 62 4 33 35 .129 .843 .021 5.37
2004 MiamiOhio NCAA 22 NCA 53.0 54 3 32 51 .131 .761 .019 4.42
2004 Tri City NYPL 22 Hou A- 36.2 27 0 23 52 .144 .620 .000 2.45
2005 Lexington SAL 23 Hou A 102.1 84 5 49 108 .111 .724 .018 3.52
2006 Salem Caro 24 Hou A+ 99.2 82 5 29 87 .071 .772 .017 2.98
2006 Coprus Chr Tex 24 Hou AA 44.1 33 3 26 45 .135 .729 .025 3.05


chad reineke why is he on this list? i don't know. his control is bad. he has limited home runs. i guess he's a sinkerballer. if he improves his control, he should be pretty good.

ok i answered my own question.

kevin goldstein leaves off estrada and reineke in favor of jason hirsh, who is now a rocky, and brian bogusevic. his sleeper is jordan parraz.


Career Pitching Statistics for Brian Bogusevic:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 Tulane NCAA 19 NCA 34.1 38 1 12 26 .078 .816 .009 3.41
2004 Tulane NCAA 20 NCA 111.2 128 9 25 84 .051 .819 .024 4.19
2005 Tulane NCAA 21 NCA 130.1 130 5 42 129 .075 .752 .013 3.25
2005 Tri City NYPL 21 Hou A- 21.1 30 2 9 17 .087 .819 .026 7.59
2006 Tri City NYPL 22 Hou A- 11.0 10 1 5 6 .104 .860 .027 4.09
2006 Lexington SAL 22 Hou A 70.1 76 6 24 60 .077 .791 .026 4.73


brian bogusevic is a typical lefty with typical control and home run limitation. he'll do that thing that lefties do.


Career Batting Statistics for Jordan Parraz:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2004 Greenevlle App 19 Hou Rk 180 29 44 4 11 .139 .756 .110 .244
2005 Tri City NYPL 20 Hou A- 283 20 45 5 13 .066 .841 .076 .262
2006 Tri City NYPL 21 Hou A- 257 40 44 6 20 .135 .829 .122 .336


jordan parraz had good numbers in the new york-penn league last year, with patience, contact, and power. he's a good bet going forward. here's his picture.

i also wanna talk about mike rodriguez.


Career Batting Statistics for Mike Rodriguez:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2000 Miami NCAA 19 NCA 216 39 29 3 12 .153 .866 .080 .322
2001 Miami NCAA 20 NCA 237 42 22 5 17 .151 .907 .102 .329
2001 Pittsfield NYPL 20 Hou A- 157 35 30 0 18 .182 .809 .142 .318
2002 Michigan Midw 21 Hou A 504 67 85 4 27 .117 .831 .074 .253
2003 Salem Caro 22 Hou A+ 445 55 50 5 30 .110 .888 .089 .278
2004 Round Rock Tex 23 Hou AA 401 40 55 4 28 .091 .863 .092 .267
2005 Coprus Chr Tex 24 Hou AA 398 51 50 5 25 .114 .874 .086 .281
2006 Round Rock PCL 25 Hou AAA 441 53 55 6 23 .107 .875 .075 .276


he's a slap-and-run lefty, with speed, patience, and contact. he's got all the ingredients. he can play in the major leagues.

and that's the astros. there's some talent here, but it's not as good as other systems, and a lot of these guys have significant work to do. bad times ahead.
Comments:
i feel like this is the appropriate method to ask a question. even though this has nothing to do with the stros. so. jeter was mad hit lucky last year right. thats my question.
 
jeter was hit lucky last year, but jeter is a very smart player. he has good patience, good contact, and good power. he waits for his pitch, and he hits line drives. players who are smart tend to have better results than their talents would imply.
 
Good blog - thanks. Have you looked at all at Evan Englebrook? I've watched him a little over the last few years and I believe last year he made the switch from the rotation to the 'pen. Is that move permanent? Will he move up a level this year?
 
The reason Paulino has two pages is because in 04 with the Greeneville Astros, he went by Felipe Paulino. It was the next year that the rest of the last name started being used. The Cube as a simular issue with Astros farm outfielder Wallace "Beau" Torbert.

Nice work here.
 
evan englebrook had a good strikeout rate in 2004, in the new york-penn league, but he was old for his level. his path in the last two years has not been one that will lead to the major leagues. he'll probably play in double-a this year.
 
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