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Tuesday, May 23, 2006
put your money where your mouth is
i have placed my first baseball bets. i got an account on pinnaclesports.com, and after finally getting the money in, i placed the following bets (for today's games):

marlins (olsen) v. cubs (wood): risking 10.00 to win 11.30
mets (trachsel) v. phillies (floyd): risking 13.90 to win 10.00
braves (sosa) at padres (thompson): risking 10.00 to win 10.20
dodgers (penny) v. rockies (jennings): risking 15.10 to win 10.00
cardinals (marquis) at giants (morris): risking 11.10 to win 10.00
athletics (saarloos) at white sox (vazquez): risking 10.00 to win 15.50
angels (lackey) at rangers (padilla): risking 10.00 to win 10.40
twins (santana) v. indians (lee): risking 16.80 to win 10.00

i'm pretty excited. i probably placed too many bets, but i'm having fun. the bets are small. i wanna get some experience.

we'll see where this goes, but i'm convinced my methods can be used for gambling. other theorists do not make this claim. they specifically warn against it. i've always wondered about that. why can't your methods be used for gambling? what's wrong with them?

i don't know. actually i do know. but that's not the scope of this article. the scope of this article is to throw down the gauntlet. is your system good enough to win? let's see what you can do.
in case you're wondering, the team i bet on is listed on the left. if they're at home, it says "v." if they're away, it says "at".
for an interesting article regarding sports betting, see getting the best of it, by david sklansky.
i chose the marlins because the cubs offense is terrible. and wood could possibly have a breakdown. i chose the mets because floyd walks too many people. and the mets have patient hitters. i chose the braves because sosa can be extremely effective. especially when he throws strikes. especially in that park. i think the braves are a little undervalued now because they have had a slow start, and bullpen problems. but bobby cox will get it together. also, the braves lineup is good, even without mccann. and who is mike thompson?

rockies i think are often good to bet against on the road. balls break so much more that it gives their hitters trouble. and brad penny has a big-breaking curve. cardinals i think marquis can have success against the giants low-power, high-contact lineup. and the cardinals high-power, low-contact hitters can beat morris, who is not having that good a year. also they have pujols. athletics contact hitters can do well against vazquez, i think. and saarloos can do reasonably well against that lineup. angels, john lackey is much better than vicente padilla. twins. johan is undervalued because of his typical slow start. but he's a killer. cleveland's lineup is strong, but that's exactly when a dominant pitcher has the most value.
the lines have moved. the mets are now -134, the a's are +159, and the angels are +108. i placed those bets again. the marlins are down to +108, the braves -105, and the dodgers -161, so i'm feeling pretty good about those bets. interestingly, the dodgers line has moved so much that i could now bet the rockies and guarantee a profit, but i feel that my expectation is higher if i keep the action.
. . . and the results are in!

marlins won +11.30
mets won (twice) +20.00
braves lost -10.00
dodgers won +10.00
cardinals won +10.00
a's lost (twice) -20.00
angles won (twice) +21.20
twins won +10.00

total: +52.50
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