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Friday, January 20, 2006
top prospects: pirates
the brewers were pretty good, but the pirates look like one of the best organizations in the majors. they got arms all over the place. and catchers. not a lot else but that's a good place to start. they can presumably trade for other needs.
the important thing is there's a future in pittsburgh.
1. Neil Walker, c
2. Andrew McCutchen, of
3. Tom Gorzelanny, lhp
4. Paul Maholm, lhp
5. Jose Bautista, 3b
6. Nate McLouth, of
7. Bryan Bullington, rhp
8. John Van Benschoten, rhp
9. Chris Duffy, of
10. Matt Capps, rhp
i am sold on dave littlefield. i wasn't sure about him for a while, because he was making funny moves at the major-league level. but what he was doing was biding time. he's built a solid minor-league system, and it's gonna pay off.
Career Batting Statistics for Neil Walker:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2004 GCL Pirates GCL 19 Pit Rk 195 13 33 4 15 .063 .831 .117 .271
2004 Williamsport NYPL 19 Pit A 34 2 1 0 3 .056 .971 .091 .303
2005 Lynchburg Caro 20 Pit A 45 0 12 0 3 .000 .733 .091 .262
2005 Hickory SAL 20 Pit A 492 26 71 12 35 .050 .856 .112 .301
neil walker. he's a catcher. there are a lot of young catchers coming up. the pirates have three. walker, doumit, and paulino. the braves have two. mccann and saltalamacchia. the dodgers have two. navarro and martin. navarro's already up. the blue jays have quiroz. the angels have mathis. the new era of the catcher is upon us.
but this guy. yeah. they drafted him in 2004. it was a good pick. he makes mad contact. he has good power. he doesn't walk much. he doesn't know he has to. hitting is too easy.
walker will make the bigs in a minute.
Career Batting Statistics for Andrew McCutchen:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2005 GCL Pirates GCL 18 Pit Rk 160 32 24 2 12 .167 .850 .103 .297
2005 Williamsport NYPL 18 Pit A 52 9 6 0 4 .148 .885 .087 .346
this kid will also be good. he was the 2005 pick. great patience. great contact. power should develop. both these kids are young and good. even though they haven't hit high-a yet, it's not hard to project them in the majors.
Career Pitching Statistics for Tom Gorzelanny:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 U. of Kansas NCAA 20 0 NCA 61.0 77 5 32 54 .110 .792 .024 5.90
2003 Williamsport NYPL 21 Pit A 30.1 23 1 10 22 .081 .807 .011 1.78
2004 Lynchburg Caro 22 Pit A 55.2 54 6 19 61 .079 .724 .038 4.85
2004 Hickory SAL 22 Pit A 93.0 63 9 34 106 .090 .690 .038 2.23
2005 Altoona East 23 Pit AA 129.2 114 6 46 124 .084 .753 .016 3.26
2005 Pittsburgh P NL 23 Pit MLB 6.0 10 1 3 3 .097 .893 .040 12.00
ok, this guy is overrated because of his fastball. baseball america does this. like the ability to make contact, the ability to throw gas is largely inborn. the scouts recognize this, and rate it highly. it's understandable. but this guy doesn't quite have the peripherals to be a top prospect. his 2004 sally league numbers are good, but he was 22, which is old for middle-a. he wasn't as successful when he moved up. he has control issues, and may have trouble with home runs in the majors. i'm not trying to say he's bad. he's good. a kid that throws hard is always good. there are many quality arms in the pirates' organization.
Career Pitching Statistics for Paul Maholm:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 Williamsport NYPL 21 Pit A 34.1 25 1 10 32 .072 .750 .010 1.83
2004 GCL Pirates GCL 22 Pit Rk 4.0 5 0 1 2 .056 .882 .000 2.25
2004 Lynchburg Caro 22 Pit A 44.0 39 2 15 28 .081 .836 .014 1.84
2004 Hickory SAL 22 Pit A 12.1 17 2 10 12 .156 .778 .048 9.49
2005 Altoona East 23 Pit AA 81.2 73 5 26 75 .076 .764 .021 3.20
2005 Indianapolis IL 23 Pit AAA 35.2 40 2 12 21 .075 .857 .016 3.53
2005 Pittsburgh P NL 23 Pit MLB 41.1 31 2 17 26 .099 .832 .016 2.18
paul maholm, for example. he made it to the majors at the age of 23. he's a lefty, with mojo. look at those home run percentages. nice and low. if his control gets a little better, he'll be a solid major leaguer.
Career Batting Statistics for Jose Bautista:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2001 Williamsport NYPL 20 Pit A 220 27 41 5 13 .109 .814 .101 .286
2002 Hickory SAL 21 Pit A 440 75 104 14 29 .146 .764 .128 .301
2003 GCL Pirates GCL 22 Pit Rk 24 4 7 1 1 .143 .708 .118 .348
2003 Lynchburg Caro 22 Pit A 165 30 48 4 16 .154 .709 .171 .242
2004 Pittsburgh P NL 23 Pit MLB 40 2 18 0 2 .048 .550 .091 .200
2004 Baltimore Or AL 23 Bal MLB 11 1 3 0 0 .083 .727 .000 .273
2004 KC Royals AL 23 Kc MLB 25 1 12 0 1 .038 .520 .077 .200
2004 TB Devil Ray AL 23 Tb MLB 12 3 7 0 0 .200 .417 .000 .167
2005 Altoona East 24 Pit AA 447 58 101 23 28 .115 .774 .147 .283
2005 Indianapolis IL 24 Pit AAA 51 4 10 1 3 .073 .804 .098 .255
2005 Pittsburgh P NL 24 Pit MLB 28 3 7 0 1 .097 .750 .048 .143
jose batista was well on his way to becoming a quality prospect. in 2002 he had good patience and good power, with projectable contact. then it looks like he got hurt, whatever. then he got taken in the rule five draft. this is an example why the rule five draft is terrible for young players. he got shuttled around to four different organizations in one year, ending up back with the pirates. he was also traded to the mets, but didn't play for them.
what am i getting at? he spent an entire year moving from organization to organization, and he didn't play. he didn't even get to work on his skills in a reasonable way. he's in the majors, adjusting to new coaches all the time, and he's not exactly high on their priorities list. if he was injured the year before, that's especially terrible, because what he needs is playing time, in a low-stress environment.
what can we say about jose now? he had good power in double-a. but he was 24, which is old. and he had trouble with contact. now, we don't know if that's representative of his abilities, or if he was adjusting to playing again after missing a year and a half. if it's the former, he's not gonna make it. if the latter, he could.
it would be interesting to see if his contact improved as the year went on, or if it stayed subpar the whole time.
Career Batting Statistics for Nate McLouth:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2001 Hickory SAL 19 Pit A 354 50 54 12 22 .124 .847 .113 .285
2002 Lynchburg Caro 20 Pit A 398 49 48 9 27 .110 .879 .103 .244
2003 Lynchburg Caro 21 Pit A 441 62 68 6 29 .123 .846 .094 .300
2004 Altoona East 22 Pit AA 522 56 62 8 44 .097 .881 .113 .322
2005 Indianapolis IL 23 Pit AAA 404 46 58 5 23 .102 .856 .081 .297
2005 Pittsburgh P NL 23 Pit MLB 110 8 20 5 6 .068 .818 .122 .257
nate mclouth could make it. 70% chance, i'd say. he has a history of good contact, with good patience, and power potential. a left-handed bat with speed, he'll get a lot of extra hits on weak contact. and he plays center field.
fyi when i say "make it" i mean "sign a free-agent contract in the major leagues". so he'd have to play through arbitration, then play one more year.
Career Pitching Statistics for Bryan Bullington:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 Ball State U NCAA 21 0 NCA 104.0 88 6 18 139 .043 .653 .023 2.86
2003 Lynchburg Caro 22 Pit A 97.1 101 5 27 67 .064 .830 .015 3.05
2003 Hickory SAL 22 Pit A 45.1 25 3 11 46 .064 .714 .026 1.39
2004 Altoona East 23 Pit AA 145.0 160 18 47 100 .073 .832 .036 4.10
2005 Indianapolis IL 25 Pit AAA 109.1 104 11 26 82 .057 .810 .031 3.38
2005 Pittsburgh P NL 25 Pit MLB 1.1 1 0 1 1 .167 .800 .000 13.50
well, the wal looks good. but the con does not. and neither does the pow (hrp). and he's old (for a prospect). he could be a guy in the majors, but not much more.
Career Pitching Statistics for John VanBenschoten:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
1999 Kent State U NCAA 19 0 NCA 22.0 37 2 12 19 .104 .816 .024 9.00
2000 Kent State U NCAA 20 0 NCA 44.0 42 3 18 33 .094 .810 .021 3.48
2001 Kent State U NCAA 21 0 NCA 48.0 34 2 26 63 .127 .646 .017 2.81
2002 Hickory SAL 22 Pit A 148.0 119 6 62 145 .099 .742 .014 2.80
2003 Lynchburg Caro 23 Pit A 48.2 33 1 18 49 .091 .726 .008 2.22
2003 Altoona East 23 Pit AA 90.1 95 5 34 78 .085 .787 .017 3.69
2004 Nashville PCL 24 Pit AAA 131.2 135 16 49 101 .085 .809 .037 4.72
2004 Pittsburgh P NL 24 Pit MLB 28.2 33 3 19 18 .138 .849 .030 6.91
van benschoten looks similar to bullington, with less control. both are righties. it doesn't look like van benschoten's got what it takes. they should have made him a hitter.
Career Batting Statistics for Chris Duffy:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2001 Arizona Stat NCAA 21 0 NCA 203 28 34 4 8 .121 .833 .071 .373
2001 Williamsport NYPL 21 Pit A 223 50 33 1 16 .183 .852 .089 .317
2002 Lynchburg Caro 22 Pit A 542 45 101 10 32 .077 .814 .095 .301
2003 Altoona East 23 Pit AA 497 64 78 1 29 .114 .843 .072 .273
2004 Altoona East 24 Pit AA 453 50 77 8 29 .099 .830 .098 .309
2005 Indianapolis IL 25 Pit AAA 312 26 57 7 20 .077 .817 .106 .308
2005 Pittsburgh P NL 25 Pit MLB 126 9 22 1 6 .067 .825 .067 .341
chris duffy doesn't have quite enough to make it, it looks like. he's fast, and a switch-hitter, which gives him the opportunity to slap-and-run, but he doesn't make enough contact. and it doesn't look like he'll develop power. and he doesn't have patience. he showed patience in williamsport.
but, yeah, no.
Career Pitching Statistics for Matt Capps:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 GCL Pirates GCL 18 Pit Rk 13.0 13 0 6 8 .103 .846 .000 0.69
2003 GCL Pirates GCL 19 Pit Rk 62.2 40 1 9 54 .038 .763 .006 1.87
2003 Lynchburg Caro 19 Pit A 5.0 3 0 4 5 .182 .722 .000 5.40
2004 Williamsport NYPL 20 Pit A 65.0 84 7 4 33 .014 .882 .028 4.85
2004 Hickory SAL 20 Pit A 42.0 82 8 16 27 .071 .870 .044 10.07
2005 Hickory SAL 22 Pit A 53.2 47 0 5 39 .023 .813 .000 2.52
2005 Altoona East 22 Pit AA 20.0 21 2 1 26 .012 .679 .036 2.70
2005 Pittsburgh P NL 22 Pit MLB 4.0 5 0 0 3 .000 .824 .000 4.50
matt sure tore up the eastern league in his limited stint. his control was fantastic all year, with 6 walks in 77 innings. it doesn't look like he'll be dominant, but if he can avoid dongs in the majors, he could stay there.
that's the end of the list, but i want to talk more about pitching, because the pirates have a lot of it. jason quarles, joe bauserman, and josh sharpless are also talented minor league pitchers. and want to talk about catcher ronny paulino.
Career Pitching Statistics for Jason Quarles:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 Williamsport NYPL 21 Pit A 23.2 34 1 19 31 .153 .705 .014 4.56
2005 Hickory SAL 22 Pit A 38.0 31 2 26 45 .152 .690 .020 2.61
i'm not sure why he's so old. he must have gone to college. he's got the best curveball in the system, according to baseball america. whatever he's throwing, dudes have trouble hitting it. those are some low contact percentages. of course, the walk percentages are not low. they are very high. he'll probably never make it.
Career Pitching Statistics for Joe Bauserman:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 GCL Pirates GCL 18 Pit Rk 38.2 26 4 10 35 .066 .754 .037 2.79
2005 Williamsport NYPL 19 Pit A 69.2 64 3 26 45 .087 .835 .013 2.84
bauserman apparently has the best changeup in the system. he's very young. he'll probably improve.
Career Pitching Statistics for Josh Sharpless:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 Williamsport NYPL 22 Pit A 31.1 19 2 17 45 .131 .602 .029 2.59
2004 Hickory SAL 23 Pit A 74.1 42 4 55 109 .172 .589 .026 3.03
2005 Lynchburg Caro 24 Pit A 27.0 7 0 11 46 .111 .477 .000 0.00
2005 Altoona East 24 Pit AA 9.1 6 0 3 13 .081 .618 .000 2.89
ok the reason i wanted to talk about this guy is that 2005 in lynchburg. a con of .477. i've never seen that before. i mean i know it was only 27 innings but that is retarded. only 7 hits allowed!
the cons are good across the board. the wals, however, are problematic. but the cons are good. he's apparently got a slider.
let's look at a few more pirates pitchers.
Career Pitching Statistics for Jonah Bayliss:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 Spokane Nwes 21 Kc A 70.2 70 9 29 38 .093 .865 .037 5.35
2003 Burlington Midw 22 Kc A 140.0 129 11 69 133 .112 .758 .026 3.86
2004 Wilmington Caro 23 Kc A 107.0 114 11 42 73 .088 .832 .030 5.05
2005 Wichita Tex 25 Kc AA 57.0 43 5 26 63 .108 .706 .033 2.84
2005 KC Royals AL 25 Kc MLB 11.2 7 2 4 10 .087 .762 .063 4.63
bayliss was acquired in the mark redman trade. he had good strikeout numbers in wichita. needs work on control and home runs.
the other guy in the trade was chad blackwell.
Career Pitching Statistics for Chad Blackwell:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 U. of South NCAA 21 0 NCA 63.0 52 4 14 80 .055 .668 .025 2.57
2004 Idaho Falls Pio 21 Kc Rk 33.0 32 2 16 46 .109 .649 .024 3.27
2005 High Desert Cali 22 Kc A 2.0 4 1 0 5 .000 .500 .200 13.50
2005 Burlington Midw 22 Kc A 68.2 62 4 27 74 .092 .724 .021 2.23
strong strikeout numbers, but old for his level.
Career Pitching Statistics for Mike Johnston:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
1998 GCL Pirates GCL 19 Pit Rk 29.2 28 0 10 17 .079 .855 .000 3.34
1998 Erie NYPL 19 Pit A 2.0 4 0 1 2 .091 .800 .000 4.50
1999 Williamsport NYPL 20 Pit A 42.1 46 5 18 30 .094 .827 .035 4.25
2000 Hickory SAL 21 Pit A 50.2 66 2 30 52 .121 .761 .012 6.22
2001 Lynchburg Caro 22 Pit A 62.0 66 2 24 44 .087 .825 .010 3.34
2001 Hickory SAL 22 Pit A 93.1 88 5 42 80 .102 .783 .017 3.38
2002 Lynchburg Caro 23 Pit A 57.0 50 2 26 50 .105 .774 .012 3.63
2003 Altoona East 24 Pit AA 72.1 49 4 27 65 .092 .756 .020 2.12
2004 Nashville PCL 25 Pit AAA 15.0 19 3 13 6 .169 .906 .052 8.40
2005 Indianapolis IL 26 Pit AAA 57.2 43 5 30 52 .122 .759 .030 2.97
2005 Pittsburgh P NL 26 Pit MLB 1.0 4 2 0 2 .000 .714 .400 36.00
mike johnston is also a little old for a prospect, but he's had some strikeouts along the way. and he's limited home runs. he's left-handed. control is a problem.
Career Pitching Statistics for Ian Snell:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2000 GCL Pirates GCL 18 Pit Rk 7.2 5 1 1 8 .034 .714 .050 2.35
2002 Hickory SAL 20 Pit A 139.2 127 8 45 149 .076 .727 .020 2.71
2003 Lynchburg Caro 21 Pit A 116.1 105 3 33 122 .068 .731 .009 3.33
2003 Altoona East 21 Pit AA 36.2 36 2 10 23 .064 .842 .016 1.96
2004 Altoona East 22 Pit AA 151.0 147 16 40 142 .063 .763 .035 3.16
2004 Pittsburgh P NL 22 Pit MLB 12.0 14 2 9 9 .153 .820 .049 7.50
2005 Indianapolis IL 23 Pit AAA 112.0 90 14 23 104 .051 .756 .043 3.70
ian snell spent the year in triple-a after a cup of coffee last year, and had great control and good strikeout numbers. a little trouble with the long ball. but he's major-league quality.
the point is, the pittsburgh pirates minor league system is loaded with live arms. add the guys in this article to zach duke and sean burnett, and the future is bright indeed.
let's close with a look at catcher ronny paulino.
Career Batting Statistics for Ronny Paulino:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
1999 GCL Pirates GCL 18 Pit Rk 83 8 19 1 6 .088 .771 .109 .253
2000 Hickory SAL 19 Pit A 302 31 71 6 18 .093 .765 .104 .289
2001 Lynchburg Caro 20 Pit A 359 38 76 6 17 .096 .788 .081 .290
2002 Lynchburg Caro 21 Pit A 446 40 87 12 28 .082 .805 .111 .262
2003 Lynchburg Caro 22 Pit A 82 9 8 1 3 .099 .902 .054 .235
2003 Altoona East 22 Pit AA 160 13 35 6 7 .075 .781 .104 .226
2004 Altoona East 23 Pit AA 372 35 62 15 25 .086 .833 .129 .285
2005 Altoona East 24 Pit AA 168 15 30 6 6 .082 .821 .087 .292
2005 Indianapolis IL 24 Pit AAA 275 26 48 13 20 .086 .825 .145 .315
2005 Pittsburgh P NL 24 Pit MLB 4 1 0 0 0 .200 1.00 .000 .500
according to ba, he's the best defensive catcher in the system. which means the pirates are looking very good. i can't believe i just said that. paulino had good contact, and showed excellent power in triple-a last year. the year before, he similarly beat double-a pitching. in my opinion, he'll be better than doumit.
pitching and catching. pitching and catching. and a couple of center fielders. and they already have a shortstop. so up-the middle is basically solved. and that's the hard part. you can always fill the corners.
it ain't gonna be 2006, but 2008, 2009 look for the pirates to be very strong. 2007 could be good. right there with the brewers and the cardinals.
Comments:
good thing they'll give their talent to the cubs when they get too expensive. cubs in 2011!
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1/23/2006
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1/23/2006
