Julien's Faster than Light Blog
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Sunday, February 29, 2004
fearless predictions
let's have some fun:
nl east:
braves
marlins
phillies
expos
mets
the phillies miss the playoffs again. it becomes painfully obvious that neither ed wade nor larry bowa know what they're doing. heads roll.
nl central:
cubs
astros
cardinals
pirates
reds
brewers
prior and wood take the cubs to the series. astros get the wild card. that's right; the marlins miss the playoffs. they fade away and are never heard from again, despite young killers josh beckett and miguel cabrera.
nl west:
giants
diamondbacks
dodgers
padres
rockies
the padres are a popular pick, but who are they gonna beat? only the rockies. sabean once again laughs all the way to the bank. new young diamondbacks barely miss the wild card, along with the marlins.
al east:
red sox
yankees
blue jays
orioles
devil rays
i don't know why, but i'm feeling it. the red sox are going to the series. it'll be one of the best ever. arod never gets one, as his team slowly slides into the sea.
al central:
twins
indians
royals
white sox
tigers
indians? second? why not. this division is pathetic.
al west:
a's
angels
mariners
rangers
angels: yawn.
the division winners are really easy, except the al east. the wild card is a tough call in the nl, but not the al: it's whoever doesn't win the east. the main factor in these picks is the ability of the front offices. except for the cubs. for them it's the young right arms. and one old one.
apparently i said something . . .
Jules, remember when you me the Yanks would be bad?
by: Dear Barely Legal (thugler) Feb 17, 7:54 am CST
You're such a stupid fucker. I'm so much smarter than you. Now your folly is posted on the internet for all to see. Next time you should listen to me.
"When we think about the future of the world, we always have in mind its being at the place where it would be if it continued to move as we see it moving now. We do not realize that it moves not in a straight line...and that its direction changes constantly."
Wittgenstein
Culture and Value
Thursday, February 26, 2004
more of the patently ridiculous
if you subscribe to lee sinins atm reports, you're used to these gems:
Despite his extreme effectiveness, Gagne's value was reduced by only pitching in 82 innings. Other than the hype of getting "saves", he was no more valuable in 2003 than Damaso Marte (1.58 ERA/26 RSAA) was for the Whitesox or Billy Wagner (1.78 ERA/26 RSAA) was for the Astros and among the pitchers he was comparable to include his teammate, Guillermo Mota (1.97 ERA/24 RSAA and Shigetoshi Hasegawa (1.48 ERA/24 RSAA). And, you can give Gagne as many awards as you want, but trophies do not change the fact that, on the field, Gagne finished a comfortable 2nd to Kevin Brown in helping the team win games by keeping runs off the scoreboard (38-26 in the RSAA department), with Gagne being closer to Wilson Alvarez, in 6th place, than he was to Brown.
so the ninth inning of a one-run game is just as important as the fourth inning of a six-run game. or something.
Tuesday, February 24, 2004
links
i went here, which led me to here, which led me to here and here.
i also took this online personality test, which is complete bullshit. i'm a 7.
it was the boy of summer what led me to all that.
Monday, February 23, 2004
the midnight hour
there's an area of the brain that, when stimulated, causes one to write uncontrollably.
rob v. josh, part 2
in response to Josh from Chicago:
Josh, go easy. I was trying to figure out who Julien's #2 would be. That top 10 list wasn't my top 10, it was the top 10 candidates returned by some quickie spreadsheet I did w/2003 stats only. I ruled out Webb, Willis cuz they were rook's w/lots of walks. I picked Vazquez in a close race over Schmidt, Pedro, Halladay. I was thinking who do you want over the next 3-5 years, not who you should draft in your 2004 fantasy league.
Yes I used h/9 as an indicator of ability. I guess I have some learnin to do about hit-luck. I threw in batters-faced to get rid of guys like Jorge DePaula, but it also knocked out Schilling, Johnson.
Let's fight at Crabbby Kim's. I've never been, but it looks like a good fightin' venue. Some of those guys sittin at the bar might join in, too.
part 1
Tuesday, February 17, 2004
my best blogging happens in february
then june, october. it's because jupiter is in aquarius. this is the dawning.
i'm feelin feisty today
here's another one: who's the greatest shortstop of all time?
the answer is cal ripken.
sharpening the ax . . .
sorry, john, but i gotta disagree:
Sabean's record is phenomenal?!?! Phenomenal?!?!
That is, quite frankly, preposterous. As I've stated before, Brian Sabean has presided over some of the worst, unluckiest, poorly timed; trades, signings and roster moves imaginable. Marvin Benard is exhibit A in the alphabet of monstrosities. JT Snow's albatross of a contract, (4 years and $24 million dollars for 41 total home runs!?!), the ridiculous contract's given to Neifi Perez and Shawon Dunston, the horrible decision to pay Kirk Reuter (27 starts, 10-5 record, 4.53 ERA) instead of Russ Ortiz (34 starts, 21-7 record, 3.81 ERA), trading Jesse Foppert for Sidney Ponson, allowing Jeff Kent to leave.... Phenomenal?!?! What about the contract he gave to Livan Hernandez, a player who refused to assume the mantle of ace, no matter how many times he handed it to him? Not to mention Damian Moss.
Has Sabean made some good, even great moves? Absolutely. Figuring out how to keep Barry, magnificent. He deserves credit for a lot of really smart decisions, no doubt. Is it tougher to work within a $90 million dollar budget than a $200 million dollar one? Absolutely. He's made a lot of great moves; I am not saying he hasn't.
But he's made as many bad decisions as a GM can get away with, moves that would have almost certainly cost him his job if he didn't have Superman to make him look smart. That's a fact. To say that he's only made one bad move in eight years is absurd. Look it up.
sabean is a popular target of sabermetric types. he routinely makes moves that contradict things statheads "know". but the truth (that's a fact!) is that he is one of the best general managers in the league.
exhibit 1: 2003: 100-61, first place, nl west
exhibit 2: 2002: 95-66, second place, nl west
exhibit 3: 2001: 90-72, second place, nl west
exhibit 4: 2000: 97-65, first place, nl west
exhibit 5: 1999: 86-76, second place, nl west
exhibit 6: 1998: 89-74, second place, nl west
exhibit 7: 1997: 90-72, first place, nl west
that's his entire tenure.
sabean's strength is that he understands the things statheads don't: defense, contact, and speed.
the west is full of contact hitters, and the giants have the defense and pitching to stop them. plus, the team is built for their park. pacbell is the most extreme pitchers' park in the leauge, tied with dodger stadium, petco (probably), and shea. coincidentally, dodger and petco are also in the nl west. not coincidentally.
the exception is coors field. but barry can handle that by himself. i kid. no one can carry a team by himself. cf: alex rodriguez, the texas rangers. the rockies aren't a problem because they suck.
we could list good moves, for example marquis grissom. but john concedes the point, so we'll leave it at that. let's discuss his "bad moves".
benard: contact, defense, speed. had one great year (1999), then bad luck with hits, and lost his starting job. a useful player for cheap.
snow: overpriced. but everyone says his defense is great, and defense at first is underrated.
perez/dunston: contact/defense/speed guys. both are near the top in all three categories. it's what sabean likes, and it's brought him a lot of success.
rueter/ortiz: rueter was worse than expected. ortiz was better than expected. still, the difference between them is tiny. it's funny to see a sabermetric type include win-loss record in an argument. strikes me as only using the stats that support one's point, while ignoring other data . . . a tactic that is anathema to bill james. sabean made the right decision. rueter's got lefty mojo.
foppert/ponson: according to the toronto star, ponson was acquired for kurt anisworth, damian moss, and ryan hannaman. either way, it was the right move. ponson made a significant contribution to the pennant drive. and that's what it's all about.
kent: sabean didn't allow jeff kent to leave, jeff left. he was not going to play with barry. and he was replaced by ray durham, a great pickup. mentioning kent is grasping at straws.
livan hernandez: the kid clearly has talent. he was a terror in the second half last year. sabean was a year early on him.
damian moss: for the price of dumping ortiz's contract, sabean got part of sidney ponson and all of manuel mateo. that's the other reason rueter was the right guy to keep. mateo is not expected to make it, but if he does, it's gravy.
in 2004, statheads will continue to whine, and brian sabean will continue to not care, as the giants once again take first place in the national league west.
class dismissed.
it just makes you wanna hug something fuzzy
a story of friendship, from the blog of friendship:
What happens to the Yankees' defense?
You've heard it a hundred times by now: Rodriguez is willing to move to third base to accommodate his old pal Derek Jeter. Don't believe the hype.
A-Rod and Jeter are smart guys. For one thing, you can bet they've already discussed who would play where if they were ever on the same team. Here's how I think it shakes out, given the PR-savvy people involved.
A-Rod: "I'd be more than happy to play third so my pal can play shortstop."
Jeter: "Oh, you rascal! Sure, I'm a great defensive presence and a Yankees stalwart, but you're a Gold Glove winner. You should play there."
A-Rod: "That's so kind of you, I don't know if I could impose..."
Jeter: "It's no imposition. Please. Allow me to make the sacrifice."
A-Rod: "If you insist."
Jeter: "I insist."
So they both get to offer to sacrifice their egos for the good of the team. It's Jeter who volunteers to give up his position, which calms the press and the fans. That's how I see it happening.
i suggest a fuzzy navel.
duty-free information!
we have here an article from the venerable wall street journal. they make you pay for their words (bastards!), so it is my duty to free the information.
the ancient greeks thought it important for the rhetorician to first establish his credentials:
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Carl Bialik and Jason Fry write The Daily Fix every weekday morning for the Online Journal. The Daily Fix offers links to the best of the day's sports columns from around the country -- whether it's the latest trade talk in major-league baseball or the newest furor about an athlete's life off the field.
Carl is a technology reporter with the Online Journal. He has contributed to CNNSI.com, Media Life Magazine and The Monitor (Uganda) and interned at the Online Journal and the Village Voice. Jason was technology editor of the Online Journal from 1996 through late 2000, and is now an assistant managing editor. Carl and Jason are both graduates of Yale University.
Dodgers Opt to Play Beaneball
With First Hire of McCourt Era
You may have heard the news over the weekend about a big-market baseball team acquiring top talent from a poorer club. The Fix is talking, of course, about the Los Angeles Dodgers' hiring of Oakland A's assistant general manager Paul DePodesta – let's call him D-Pod -- as their new GM.
Mr. DePodesta is a disciple of Billy Beane, the A's GM whose knack for acquiring top talent at low prices has propelled low-budget Oakland into the playoffs for four straight years. Mr. Beane's methods, as chronicled in last year's best-seller "Moneyball," are relatively heavy on sophisticated analysis of players' actual performance numbers, and light on baseball chestnuts like "intangibles" and "five-tool players." Mr. DePodesta was portrayed in the book as a computer nerd from Harvard, leaving some L.A. columnists suspicious despite Oakland's remarkable success. He is also, ahem, rather young.
paul is not a disciple of billy beane. he is an associate (was). many of the successful techniques developed by the recent a's were his.
"The Dodgers have a new face, and it is dabbed in Clearasil," Bill Plaschke writes in the L.A. Times. "The Dodgers have a new voice, and it speaks in megabytes. Meet General Manager.Com, otherwise known as Paul DePodesta, a 31-year-old computer nerd who was hired Monday to rid the Dodgers of their, um, virus."
But, as Orange County Register columnist Mark Whicker notes in his profile of Mr. DePodesta, the new GM isn't just an adept programmer. In "Moneyball," Mr. Whicker writes, there's "not a word about DePodesta's work as an advance scout for Cleveland. Not an anecdote from A's spring training mornings, as he rode around with wise man Bill Rigney."
Hiring Mr. DePodesta is Frank McCourt's first major move as Dodgers owner, and has won over some skeptics of the new regime. L.A. Daily News columnist Steve Dilbeck writes that "to lead the Dodgers back to their first playoff appearance since 1996, McCourt went with unproven youth, yet youth full of obvious potential." Mr. Dilbeck points out that other young GMs -- including Boston's Theo Epstein, who also plays Beaneball -- have done well. So has Toronto's J.P. Ricciardi, a disciple of Mr. Beane.
the dodgers will soon be the class of the nl west.
letters about letters
josh from chicago writes in to protest some of rob from chicago's ideas:
willis?
fuck that.
that's some seriously stupid shit.
webb at #2?
i'm happy to have him on my team and all, but...
how is this person factoring in age?
seems really really weird.
you people liking all these young doods.
where's schilling?
johnson?
they're better than willis by far.
Top Ten Starters
1. M Prior, by far
2. B Webb, show me again, too many bb
3. J Vazquez, too many HR
4. J Schmidt, no weaknesses, but isn't he hurt?
5. P Martinez, will be 32, gets hurt
6. J Beckett, too many bb?
7. D Willis, show me again, lots of bb
8. K Wood, way too many bb
9. R Halladay, too many hits?
10. E Loaiza, show me again, 32
in rob's defense, dontrelle willis has some serious lefty mojo. lefties can somehow get away with way less strikeouts than righties. also rob explicitly stated that hits allowed was a category in his list, which makes that aspect of the analysis more of a performance than an ability metric. schilling and johnson were not included because they didn't have full seasons. webb: hits again, and he seriously is a motherfucker.
why don't you guys just go to a bar and fight it out like true chicagoans? or you could go to a pussy bar like sheffield's.
freedom of information act
haha, yeah, in addition to the fact that they got the
"best player in baseball", it's also a very good move
for their defense. he's a really good fit. maybe you
saw my blog about it. plus the rangers are paying a
substantial part of his salary. you gotta hand it to
brian cashman for this one.
--- Josh Unterman wrote:
> well, if you need a place to stay, you're, of course, welcome here.
>
> i've been laughing at red sox fans.
> fucking whining losers.
> doing this kinda makes me like the yankees more.
> it's so over the top and ridiculous that it's somewhat admirable.
>
>
> [julien headley]
> > i may actually be up there first week of march. still
> > in the extreme rumor phase. my agent has to work out
> > the details with the general manager. plus the players'
> > union is giving us shit.
Monday, February 16, 2004
whoops!
the guys from yankees and mets sent me a very nice letter and even pointed out a mistake. it's fixed now.
Hi Julien,
I like what you've got going on over there. Many thanks for linking to us - the favor will be returned shortly, if Vinny hasn't already taken care of it. I love Neyer, but I expecially like your takedown.
One note - it appears you mistakenly linked to us when you plugged thebrushback.com - which is hilarious, you're right. It's in my rotation now.
Keep up the good work, and thanks again!
Scott
thank you guys! people say new yorkers are rude, but they seem to be the only folks i can make friends with!
Sunday, February 15, 2004
spring is here!
looks like i'll be taking a trip down to florida in march. if you're grapefruit team fan, send me a list of prospects and i'll tell you what i think of them.
next question: who do you want to start game 7?
that's easy. it's still pedro martinez.
number 2 is kerry wood. number 3 is mark prior. the cubs are looking good. put money on them. that advice is for amusement only.
i've had this letter sitting in my inbox
i've been meaning to write a detailed response to it, but it ain't happenin, so i'm just gonna run it.
So, Prior is the best. No crap. Who is the second best?
Based on 2003 r/9, k/9, bb/9, h/9, hr/9, age and batters faced, no matter how I weight these indicators, Prior is numero uno. Here's how they generally rank:
Top Ten Starters
1. M Prior, by far
2. B Webb, show me again, too many bb
3. J Vazquez, too many HR
4. J Schmidt, no weaknesses, but isn't he hurt?
5. P Martinez, will be 32, gets hurt
6. J Beckett, too many bb?
7. D Willis, show me again, lots of bb
8. K Wood, way too many bb
9. R Halladay, too many hits?
10. E Loaiza, show me again, 32
Relievers
1. R Soriano
2. J Santana
3. E Gagne
4. G Mota
5. B Kim
6. J Valverde
7. B Lidge
8. D Marte
9. F Rodriguez
10. D Riske
Any chance Soriano becomes a starter? He was unreal last year.
OK. Go easy. I know these are bad because they only look at 2003 and ignore very other year in history. They also ignore G/F, park, league.
I guess I'll go with Javier Vazquez #2 in a close call over Schmidt, Pedro, Halladay.
Who's your #2? I bet you pick Beckett.
-Rob
Chicago
i love josh beckett but i can't make him #2. my top ten:
1. prior
2. schilling
3. halladay
4. pedro
5. wood
6. vazquez
7. webb
8. rj
9. beckett
10. santana
differences between rob's list and mine are due to park factors and the randomness of hits on balls in play. my reliever list probably goes gagne smoltz soriano dotel. i haven't investigated it thoroughly. for more on starters (moron starters?), check my jan 21 article.
mr irrelevant
is rob neyer really this dumb?
Let's look at a couple of sabermetric measures: Lee Sinin's Runs Saved Above Average and Bill James' Win Shares ...
RSAA WS
Eck 119 169
Smoltz 191 181
I'm not sure why Smoltz has a huge advantage in RSAA and a small one in Win Shares,
etc. it's because smoltz was more above average than eckersley. i used to think rob knew things.
and the burning question: does john smoltz belong in the hall of fame?
neyer doesn't answer that question. but he would have gotten it wrong. the answer is "who cares?"
arod
nobody's done the analysis right. i mean i haven't checked, but nobody's done the analysis right, so i'm gonna have to do it. the yankees just got a lot better. alfonso soriano is the most overrated player in the majors. he is an out machine. so it's not a big loss. and mr rodriguez is obviously a killer. did i ever tell you that my friend matt got taunted by arod once? 'strue. he was at a track meet at the young demigod's high school. the track was next to the baseball diamond. my friend has long dreds, or did, and the team took advantage of the opportunity to tell him what they thought. that's the story.
yeah so this improves the defense, which can no longer be called bad. here's what's gonna happen: jeter's gonna move to second. it's obvious. second base is his natural position. they're saying arod will play third so they don't cause an uproar. but they'll make a big deal out of it and say "what a captain, he's changing positions for the good of his team, blah blah blah." jeter will succeed at second. his problem has always been his arm. i bet he'll even be pretty good at turning the double play.
ok so good defense + kevin brown = even more benefit. this move solves all the problems. if they pick up adrian beltre, even better. either way, they're now the favorite in the east. you knew when he signed that contract alex would eventually be a yankee.
pinstripes are ugly.
Saturday, February 14, 2004
al mup
johan santana lost his arbitration case. the players would seriously make more money if they disbanded the union. the current system is indentured servitude.
Wednesday, February 11, 2004
mup (most underpaid player)
nick johnson lost his arbitration case. arbitration is the stupidest thing ever.
the yankees have a prospect?
rotoworld:
According to the Newark Star-Ledger, the Yankees believe they can acquire Adrian Beltre if they're willing to include top prospect Dioner Navarro in the trade.
The Yankees apparently don't want to make the move now. They'll take a long look at all of their third base candidates this spring and then see if they need to upgrade. By the time the season starts, dealing Beltre would make much less sense for the Dodgers. Greg Maddux won't still be available then.
let's see about this. . . . wow. he's a 20-year old switch-hitting catcher who walks a little, makes contact, and hits for power. he played in the eastern league (AA) last year, at the age of 19, and did very well. i can't think of a single reason why he won't be a star. where do they get these guys?
Tuesday, February 03, 2004
a: all the right moves
q: what is lea thompson's greatest role?
oq (other question): what does billy beane do?
rotoworld:
Athletics signed first baseman Eric Karros, who had been with the Cubs, to a one-year, $1.05 million contract with an option for 2005.
Karros gets a $550,000 salary this year and the chance to earn $600,000 in performance bonuses: $40,000 for 75 games and each additional five games through 145. Oakland has a $1.5 million option for 2005 with a $500,000 buyout. Karros should become Oakland's first baseman against left-handers. He shouldn't ever start against right-handers -- if Scott Hatteberg or Erubiel Durazo gets hurt, the A's will likely turn to Graham Koonce -- so his upside for fantasy purposes is very limited. He probably won't be worth more than $2.
rotoworld underestimates players who make good contact. the flip side is they overestimate the strikeout kings. karros is better than koonce, and billy beane knows it.
i ran eric's wal con pow in a report on the cubs that ended up being an article about first basemen.
