top prospects: rockies
it's popular to praise the rockies' system but (1) they have a lot of players who work out because of altitude, and (2) they haven't developed any stars.

1. Troy Tulowitski, ss 
2. Franklin Morales, lhp 
3. Jason Hirsh, rhp 
4. Dexter Fowler, of 
5. Ian Stewart, 3b 
6. Ubaldo Jimenez, rhp 
7. Greg Reynolds, rhp 
8. Chris Iannetta, c 
9. Jeff Baker, of 
10. Chaz Roe, rhp 

i don't wanna be the only hater, but come on, let's be reasonable. the rockies are nowhere close to winning. except in the way that any team can get lucky and win these days.

now that i've angered all the rockies fans, let's talk about the players.

Career Batting Statistics for Troy Tulowitzki:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2003 Long Beach   NCAA 18     NCA 200  12  31   5  11 .057 .845 .095 .270
2004 Long Beach   NCAA 19     NCA 233  38  40   7  17 .140 .828 .124 .317
2005 Long Beach   NCAA 20     NCA 152  22  35   8  13 .126 .770 .179 .349
2005 Modesto      Cali 20 Col A+   94  11  18   4   6 .105 .809 .132 .266
2006 Tulsa        Tex  21 Col AA  428  56  71  13  36 .116 .834 .137 .291
2006 Colorado     MLB  21 Col MLB  96  11  25   1   2 .103 .740 .042 .240

last year i said troy tulowitzki would have trouble with contact. he didn't. he made contact at an .834 clip in double-a. a year out of college. at the age of 21. he also had good patience, and a POW of .137. he's gonna be a good one.

when i said they haven't developed any stars, i meant recently. obviously todd helton is a star.

Career Pitching Statistics for Franklin Morales:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2004 Casper       Pio  18 Col Rk   65.0  92   8  39  82 .120 .714 .039  7.62
2005 Asheville    SAL  19 Col A    96.1  73   6  48 108 .117 .702 .024  3.08
2006 Modesto      Cali 20 Col A+  154.0 126   9  89 179 .131 .696 .022  3.68

franklin morales is a lefty with good contact rates. but he walks too many people. that's not gonna fly in colorado. maybe it's not as important, now that they sog the balls.

Career Pitching Statistics for Jason Hirsh:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2003 Tri City     NYPL 21 Hou A-   32.1  22   0   7  33 .056 .723 .000  1.95
2004 Salem        Caro 22 Hou A+  130.1 128   8  57  96 .099 .815 .019  4.01
2005 Coprus Chr   Tex  23 Hou AA  172.1 137  12  42 165 .060 .748 .025  2.87
2006 Round Rock   PCL  24 Hou AAA 137.1  94   5  51 118 .092 .767 .013  2.10
2006 Houston      MLB  24 Hou MLB  44.2  48  11  22  29 .108 .841 .072  6.04

jason hirsh has good home run rates. the rest is not so good. maybe he'll work out. sinker guys seem to make it there.

Career Batting Statistics for Dexter Fowler:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2005 Casper       Pio  19 Col Rk  220  29  73   4  14 .116 .668 .122 .273
2006 Asheville    SAL  20 Col A   406  50  79   8  37 .110 .805 .138 .296

dexter fowler had very good results in the sally league. his patience was good, his contact was decent, and his power was strong. he also runs fast.

players that show these kinds of skills tend to have long major-league careers.

Career Batting Statistics for Ian Stewart:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2003 Casper       Pio  18 Col Rk  225  32  54  10  19 .125 .760 .170 .317
2004 Asheville    SAL  19 Col A   510  70 112  30  40 .121 .780 .176 .319
2005 Modesto      Cali 20 Col A+  442  57 113  17  39 .114 .744 .170 .274
2006 Tulsa        Tex  21 Col AA  466  61 103  10  48 .116 .779 .160 .268

ian stewart made great strides in 2006. it doesn't look like it cause his average went down. but his contact raised significantly. i was worried about his future, but i'm not anymore. where are they gonna play him though?

that's the thing. the rockies develop a lot of hitters because they have a friendly environment for hitters. it's not cause they feel confident or whatever it's because in high altitude, the breaking ball is easier to hit. so playing in colorado springs and denver is a learning environment for hitters. consequently, the rockies expect an overstock of hitters. for the same reason, they will have a shortage of pitchers. so the thing to do is trade their hitters for pitchers. but not just any pitcher. they need pitchers with the following two characteristics: velocity, and control. you gotta be able to throw hard, and throw strikes. and just keep throwing it in there. cause the only thing bad is a walk. you think a solo home run makes a difference? that's just one run. but a home run with men on base, now you got a problem. so throw it in there. make em swing.

i just told the rockies how to win, free of charge. but they're not gonna listen.

Career Pitching Statistics for Ubaldo Jimenez:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2002 Casper       Pio  18 Col Rk   62.0  72   6  29  65 .101 .748 .031  6.53
2003 Asheville    SAL  19 Col A   153.2 129  11  67 138 .102 .766 .024  3.46
2003 Visalia      Cali 19 Col A+    5.0   3   0   1   7 .053 .611 .000  0.00
2004 Visalia      Cali 20 Col A+   44.1  29   1  12  61 .069 .623 .010  2.23
2005 Modesto      Cali 21 Col A+   72.1  61   5  40  78 .126 .719 .025  3.98
2005 Tulsa        Tex  21 Col AA   63.0  58  12  31  53 .112 .785 .062  5.43
2006 Tulsa        Tex  22 Col AA   73.1  49   2  40  86 .129 .680 .011  2.45
2006 Colo Spr     PCL  22 Col AAA  78.1  74   7  43  64 .122 .793 .029  5.06
2006 Colorado     MLB  22 Col MLB   7.2   5   1   3   3 .097 .893 .040  3.52

ubaldo jimenez was doing good until he got to colorado springs, which is high altitude, and the curveball doesn't work at altitude. he also walks too many people.

Career Pitching Statistics for Greg Reynolds:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2004 Stanford     NCAA 19     NCA  27.0  30   4  12  15 .098 .865 .042  6.00
2005 Stanford     NCAA 20     NCA  51.1  51   4  17  51 .077 .751 .026  5.08
2006 Stanford     NCAA 21     NCA 127.2 118   7  32 108 .060 .784 .018  3.31
2006 Modesto      Cali 21 Col A+   48.2  51   1  14  29 .066 .853 .006  3.33

greg reynolds was the second pick of the draft, and it was a terrible pick. this is the proof that the rockies have no idea how to win. first of all, greg reynolds is not going to strike people out. you need strikeouts for a top pitcher in colorado. but the big thing is he's a curve ball guy. the curve ball doesn't work in colorado. they gave all that money to denny naegle, and darryl kile, and mike hampton. . . .

this is the point: look at the era's in colorado the past 12 years. however long they've been around. it's random. the era's are basically totally random. colorado is a ridiculous environment. it breaks the game. so you have to completely rethink what you're doing. the problem is you got baseball people, and you have to think like non-baseball people.

this colorado post has really thrown me for a loop. i got stuck at the "da . . ." of "darryl kile," and i've spent the last few days combing the internet. trying to figure this out. but i'm not gonna say i've figured it out. i sure would like to try some ideas, though.

one of the ideas that needs to be tried, in baseball in general, is the idea of pitchers who don't get injured.

Career Batting Statistics for Chris Iannetta:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2002 North Car.   NCAA 19     NCA 171  33  35   9   7 .162 .795 .118 .333
2003 North Car.   NCAA 20     NCA 236  37  34   8  15 .136 .856 .114 .319
2004 North Car.   NCAA 21     NCA 249  48  47  15  19 .162 .811 .168 .336
2004 Asheville    SAL  21 Col A   121  31  29   5   6 .204 .760 .120 .314
2005 Modesto      Cali 22 Col A+  265  47  61  11  20 .151 .770 .152 .276
2005 Tulsa        Tex  22 Col AA   61   9  15   2   4 .129 .754 .130 .233
2006 Tulsa        Tex  23 Col AA  157  27  26  11  12 .147 .834 .176 .321
2006 Colo Spr     PCL  23 Col AAA 152  27  29   3  13 .151 .809 .130 .351
2006 Colorado     MLB  23 Col MLB  78  14  17   2   4 .152 .782 .098 .260

the rockies have a bunch of guys who take a lot of pitches and hit for a lot of power and us prospect analysts love this because we know they're gonna go to denver and put up big numbers. then we can say "see, i predicted that guy would do that." but the big numbers in colorado don't mean what they mean in other parks, so what are we predicting? we're predicting a guy who will make a living at his chosen career. chris iannetta will do that.

Career Batting Statistics for Jeff Baker:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2000 Clemson      NCAA 19     NCA 281  32  54  11  16 .102 .808 .119 .313
2001 Clemson      NCAA 20     NCA 235  43  38  23  15 .155 .838 .193 .369
2002 Clemson      NCAA 21     NCA 268  51  59  25  14 .160 .780 .187 .325
2003 Asheville    SAL  22 Col A   266  39  79  11  17 .128 .703 .150 .289
2004 Visalia      Cali 23 Col A+  268  53  70  11  24 .165 .739 .177 .330
2004 Tulsa        Tex  23 Col AA   92   7  22   4   6 .071 .761 .143 .297
2005 Colo Spr     PCL  24 Col AAA 230  17  44  10  17 .069 .809 .145 .303
2005 Colorado     MLB  24 Col MLB  38   5  12   1   4 .116 .684 .192 .211
2006 Colo Spr     PCL  25 Col AAA 486  51 110  20  34 .095 .774 .144 .305
2006 Colorado     MLB  25 Col MLB  57   1  14   5   9 .017 .754 .326 .368

jeff baker hits a lot of home runs. he's in the right park.

Career Pitching Statistics for Chaz Roe:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2005 Casper       Pio  18 Col Rk   49.2  31   2  36  55 .167 .694 .016  4.17
2006 Asheville    SAL  19 Col A    99.2 105   4  47  80 .104 .802 .012  4.06

chaz roe had pretty good results for a 19-year-old in the sally league. home run limitation is good. unfortunately, he was drafted by the rockies.

having finished with the baseball america list, we move, as usual, to kevin goldstein's list. goldstein leaves off jason hirsh, because he wasn't on the team yet, and baker and roe. he includes shane lindsay, because he hadn't been injured yet, samuel deduno, and joe koshansky.

Career Pitching Statistics for Shane Lindsay:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2004 Casper       Pio  19 Col Rk   21.1  22   1  19  31 .181 .640 .018  6.75
2005 TriCity      Nwes 20 Col A-   66.2  37   1  34 107 .125 .549 .008  1.89
2006 TriCity      Nwes 21 Col A-   29.0  18   0  17  48 .139 .543 .000  2.79
2006 Asheville    SAL  21 Col A    33.2  26   2  27  43 .175 .661 .024  2.67

shane lindsay had labrum surgery in october. so far in his career, he has shown very good contact percentages, good home run percentages, and bad walk percentages.

Career Pitching Statistics for Samuel Deduno:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2004 Casper       Pio  21 Col Rk   76.1  62   3  32 118 .099 .595 .017  3.18
2005 Asheville    SAL  22 Col A    89.2  82   9  65 110 .156 .687 .037  5.62
2006 Modesto      Cali 23 Col A+  146.1 121   3  92 167 .141 .702 .008  4.80

samuel deduno has good contact percentages and very good home run percentages, but bad walk percentages. unfortunately, he's a curveballer, and curveballs don't work in colorado.

Career Batting Statistics for Joe Koshansky:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2001 Virginia     NCAA 19     NCA  15   6   7   0   0 .286 .533 .000 .133
2002 Virginia     NCAA 20     NCA  45   6  24   1   2 .118 .467 .143 .156
2003 Virginia     NCAA 21     NCA 182  39  49   9  13 .176 .731 .165 .320
2004 Virginia     NCAA 22     NCA 228  35  53  16  18 .133 .768 .194 .302
2004 TriCity      Nwes 22 Col A-  241  35  84  12  18 .127 .651 .191 .234
2005 Asheville    SAL  23 Col A   461  64 122  36  32 .122 .735 .201 .291
2005 Tulsa        Tex  23 Col AA   46   2  15   2   3 .042 .674 .161 .267
2006 Tulsa        Tex  24 Col AA  502  70 134  31  28 .122 .733 .160 .284

joe koshansky will put up big numbers in colorado, assuming he cracks the lineup.

there's a bunch more guys who were mentioned in the articles, so we'll talk about them now.

Career Batting Statistics for Christopher Nelson:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2004 Casper       Pio  18 Col Rk  147  22  42   4   9 .130 .714 .124 .347
2005 Asheville    SAL  19 Col A   319  30  88   3  16 .086 .724 .082 .241
2006 Asheville    SAL  20 Col A   473  39 101  11  39 .076 .786 .134 .260

chris nelson is a shortstop with good power who swings too much. he certainly could hit in colorado, but who couldn't.

he could probably hit anywhere if he stopped swinging so much.

Career Batting Statistics for Hector Gomez:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2006 Casper       Pio  18 Col Rk  206  14  26   5  13 .064 .874 .100 .327
2006 TriCity      Nwes 18 Col A-   46   1  14   0   3 .021 .696 .094 .244

hector gomez is a young shortstop with good contact skills. he's got a little pop in there too.

Career Batting Statistics for Corey Wimberly:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2004 Alcorn St    NCAA 20     NCA 150  27  14   0  12 .153 .907 .088 .420
2005 Alcorn St    NCAA 21     NCA 136  39   5   1  13 .223 .963 .107 .462
2005 Casper       Pio  21 Col Rk  283  24  27   1  10 .078 .905 .043 .381
2006 Modesto      Cali 22 Col A+  344  47  42   2  10 .120 .878 .040 .325

corey wimberly is definitely one of the top ten prospects in this system. probably top-five. he's got a patient bat, and can get on base against anybody with contact, speed, and switch-hitting. then, when he gets on base, watch out. he stole 50 bases in 87 games last year.

he'd be much more valuable in a park that made sense for baseball.

he's a middle infielder.

Career Batting Statistics for Eric Young:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2004 Casper       Pio  19 Col Rk   87  21  13   0   6 .194 .851 .081 .264
2005 Casper       Pio  20 Col Rk  221  39  52   3  14 .150 .765 .101 .301
2006 Asheville    SAL  21 Col A   483  77  75   5  34 .138 .845 .096 .295

eric young is another second-baseman with patience, contact, speed, and switch-hitting. he stole 87 bases last year. he doesn't have nearly the contact wimberly has. he might have better patience though.

Career Pitching Statistics for Juan Morillo:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2003 Casper       Pio  19 Col Rk   64.0  85   6  40  44 .126 .841 .026  5.91
2004 TriCity      Nwes 20 Col A-   66.1  56   0  41  73 .139 .714 .000  2.98
2005 Asheville    SAL  21 Col A    33.2  40   2  13  43 .084 .695 .020  4.54
2005 Modesto      Cali 21 Col A+  112.1 107  10  65 101 .128 .773 .029  4.41
2006 Tulsa        Tex  22 Col AA  140.1 128  13  80 132 .127 .760 .031  4.62
2006 Colorado     MLB  22 Col MLB   4.0   8   3   3   4 .130 .800 .188 15.75

juan morillo throws hard, but he walks too many people. if he could get the walks down, he'd be useful.

Career Pitching Statistics for Josh Sullivan:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2003 Auburn       NCAA 19     NCA  14.2  16   2  13  11 .178 .817 .041  8.59
2004 Auburn       NCAA 20     NCA   1.0   1   0   1   1 .200 .750 .000 18.00
2005 Auburn       NCAA 21     NCA  97.0  88   6  39  74 .093 .805 .020  4.18
2005 TriCity      Nwes 21 Col A-    1.0   3   0   1   1 .143 .833 .000 27.00
2006 TriCity      Nwes 22 Col A-   69.2  49   2  21  74 .075 .713 .011  2.71

josh sullivan had some good results at tricity, with decent walk rates, decent contact rates, and good home run rates, but he's far from the majors.

jesus, being a pitcher in the colorado rockies organization sucks.

Career Pitching Statistics for Darren Clarke:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2001 Casper       Pio  20 Col Rk   55.1  76   3  33  42 .120 .826 .015  6.02
2002 TriCity      Nwes 21 Col A-   40.0  51   3  19  38 .100 .778 .023  6.98
2003 Asheville    SAL  22 Col A   157.1 155  22  59 107 .086 .829 .042  3.83
2004 Visalia      Cali 23 Col A+   35.1  54   6  16  27 .091 .831 .045  7.39
2005 TriCity      Nwes 24 Col A-   14.0   9   0   2  18 .038 .647 .000  0.64
2005 Modesto      Cali 24 Col A+    6.0  13   2   3   4 .088 .871 .074  9.00
2006 Modesto      Cali 25 Col A+   26.2  13   1   7  37 .070 .602 .018  1.35

darren clarke had some really good numbers in modesto last year, but he hasn't gotten much playing time.

if he does well, he gets to pitch in colorado. congratulations, fuck you.

Career Pitching Statistics for Brandon Hynick:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2004 Birm South   NCAA 19     NCA  57.1  49   5  20  50 .083 .774 .029  3.61
2005 Birm South   NCAA 20     NCA  99.2 111   5  27  74 .062 .820 .015  3.34
2006 Birm South   NCAA 21     NCA 100.2  90   1  26  89 .062 .773 .003  2.59
2006 Casper       Pio  21 Col Rk   64.0  55   3   8  70 .031 .717 .017  2.39
2006 TriCity      Nwes 21 Col A-    7.0   5   0   1   9 .037 .654 .000  2.57

brandon hynick is a righty with good control who pitched in casper last year. i'm starting to think control is the most important thing in colorado, because stuff don't make much difference.

Career Pitching Statistics for Manuel Corpas:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2000 Venoco       VSL  17 Col Rk    2.1   5   0   0   3 .000 .750 .000 15.43
2002 Casper       Pio  19 Col Rk   33.0  37   4  18  42 .117 .691 .043  5.73
2003 TriCity      Nwes 20 Col A-   84.0  98   7  22  47 .059 .866 .023  5.79
2004 Asheville    SAL  21 Col A    44.1  48   3  13  52 .067 .713 .023  3.05
2005 Modesto      Cali 22 Col A+   69.0  83   2  14  52 .046 .821 .008  3.78
2006 Tulsa        Tex  23 Col AA   36.2  22   0   4  35 .029 .735 .000  0.98
2006 Colo Spr     PCL  23 Col AAA   8.2   5   1   2   7 .061 .774 .042  1.04
2006 Colorado     MLB  23 Col MLB  32.1  36   3   8  27 .057 .797 .028  3.62

manuel corpas made it to the big club and threw strikes for 32 innings. if he can keep doing that, he's got a job.

got to have a j-o-b if you wanna im-press me.

the rockies have a lot of guys with talent. it doesn't make a bit of difference. first of all, the talent is not that great. second, they have an insurmountable pitching problem. at least it is to them. the model of getting a lot of guys who bash home runs and squeaking into the playoffs has worked in the past, and it could work again, but to have a truly good team they're gonna have to do things very differently. whatever they do, they are many years away, because they are nowhere close to the kind of talent the diamondbacks and dodgers have.
- posted by julien @ 7:40 PM