Julien's Faster than Light Blog

Jump to top
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
 
top prospects: rockies
it's popular to praise the rockies' system but (1) they have a lot of players who work out because of altitude, and (2) they haven't developed any stars.


1. Troy Tulowitski, ss
2. Franklin Morales, lhp
3. Jason Hirsh, rhp
4. Dexter Fowler, of
5. Ian Stewart, 3b
6. Ubaldo Jimenez, rhp
7. Greg Reynolds, rhp
8. Chris Iannetta, c
9. Jeff Baker, of
10. Chaz Roe, rhp


i don't wanna be the only hater, but come on, let's be reasonable. the rockies are nowhere close to winning. except in the way that any team can get lucky and win these days.

now that i've angered all the rockies fans, let's talk about the players.


Career Batting Statistics for Troy Tulowitzki:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2003 Long Beach NCAA 18 NCA 200 12 31 5 11 .057 .845 .095 .270
2004 Long Beach NCAA 19 NCA 233 38 40 7 17 .140 .828 .124 .317
2005 Long Beach NCAA 20 NCA 152 22 35 8 13 .126 .770 .179 .349
2005 Modesto Cali 20 Col A+ 94 11 18 4 6 .105 .809 .132 .266
2006 Tulsa Tex 21 Col AA 428 56 71 13 36 .116 .834 .137 .291
2006 Colorado MLB 21 Col MLB 96 11 25 1 2 .103 .740 .042 .240


last year i said troy tulowitzki would have trouble with contact. he didn't. he made contact at an .834 clip in double-a. a year out of college. at the age of 21. he also had good patience, and a POW of .137. he's gonna be a good one.

when i said they haven't developed any stars, i meant recently. obviously todd helton is a star.


Career Pitching Statistics for Franklin Morales:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 Casper Pio 18 Col Rk 65.0 92 8 39 82 .120 .714 .039 7.62
2005 Asheville SAL 19 Col A 96.1 73 6 48 108 .117 .702 .024 3.08
2006 Modesto Cali 20 Col A+ 154.0 126 9 89 179 .131 .696 .022 3.68


franklin morales is a lefty with good contact rates. but he walks too many people. that's not gonna fly in colorado. maybe it's not as important, now that they sog the balls.


Career Pitching Statistics for Jason Hirsh:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 Tri City NYPL 21 Hou A- 32.1 22 0 7 33 .056 .723 .000 1.95
2004 Salem Caro 22 Hou A+ 130.1 128 8 57 96 .099 .815 .019 4.01
2005 Coprus Chr Tex 23 Hou AA 172.1 137 12 42 165 .060 .748 .025 2.87
2006 Round Rock PCL 24 Hou AAA 137.1 94 5 51 118 .092 .767 .013 2.10
2006 Houston MLB 24 Hou MLB 44.2 48 11 22 29 .108 .841 .072 6.04


jason hirsh has good home run rates. the rest is not so good. maybe he'll work out. sinker guys seem to make it there.


Career Batting Statistics for Dexter Fowler:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2005 Casper Pio 19 Col Rk 220 29 73 4 14 .116 .668 .122 .273
2006 Asheville SAL 20 Col A 406 50 79 8 37 .110 .805 .138 .296


dexter fowler had very good results in the sally league. his patience was good, his contact was decent, and his power was strong. he also runs fast.

players that show these kinds of skills tend to have long major-league careers.


Career Batting Statistics for Ian Stewart:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2003 Casper Pio 18 Col Rk 225 32 54 10 19 .125 .760 .170 .317
2004 Asheville SAL 19 Col A 510 70 112 30 40 .121 .780 .176 .319
2005 Modesto Cali 20 Col A+ 442 57 113 17 39 .114 .744 .170 .274
2006 Tulsa Tex 21 Col AA 466 61 103 10 48 .116 .779 .160 .268


ian stewart made great strides in 2006. it doesn't look like it cause his average went down. but his contact raised significantly. i was worried about his future, but i'm not anymore. where are they gonna play him though?

that's the thing. the rockies develop a lot of hitters because they have a friendly environment for hitters. it's not cause they feel confident or whatever it's because in high altitude, the breaking ball is easier to hit. so playing in colorado springs and denver is a learning environment for hitters. consequently, the rockies expect an overstock of hitters. for the same reason, they will have a shortage of pitchers. so the thing to do is trade their hitters for pitchers. but not just any pitcher. they need pitchers with the following two characteristics: velocity, and control. you gotta be able to throw hard, and throw strikes. and just keep throwing it in there. cause the only thing bad is a walk. you think a solo home run makes a difference? that's just one run. but a home run with men on base, now you got a problem. so throw it in there. make em swing.

i just told the rockies how to win, free of charge. but they're not gonna listen.


Career Pitching Statistics for Ubaldo Jimenez:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 Casper Pio 18 Col Rk 62.0 72 6 29 65 .101 .748 .031 6.53
2003 Asheville SAL 19 Col A 153.2 129 11 67 138 .102 .766 .024 3.46
2003 Visalia Cali 19 Col A+ 5.0 3 0 1 7 .053 .611 .000 0.00
2004 Visalia Cali 20 Col A+ 44.1 29 1 12 61 .069 .623 .010 2.23
2005 Modesto Cali 21 Col A+ 72.1 61 5 40 78 .126 .719 .025 3.98
2005 Tulsa Tex 21 Col AA 63.0 58 12 31 53 .112 .785 .062 5.43
2006 Tulsa Tex 22 Col AA 73.1 49 2 40 86 .129 .680 .011 2.45
2006 Colo Spr PCL 22 Col AAA 78.1 74 7 43 64 .122 .793 .029 5.06
2006 Colorado MLB 22 Col MLB 7.2 5 1 3 3 .097 .893 .040 3.52


ubaldo jimenez was doing good until he got to colorado springs, which is high altitude, and the curveball doesn't work at altitude. he also walks too many people.


Career Pitching Statistics for Greg Reynolds:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 Stanford NCAA 19 NCA 27.0 30 4 12 15 .098 .865 .042 6.00
2005 Stanford NCAA 20 NCA 51.1 51 4 17 51 .077 .751 .026 5.08
2006 Stanford NCAA 21 NCA 127.2 118 7 32 108 .060 .784 .018 3.31
2006 Modesto Cali 21 Col A+ 48.2 51 1 14 29 .066 .853 .006 3.33


greg reynolds was the second pick of the draft, and it was a terrible pick. this is the proof that the rockies have no idea how to win. first of all, greg reynolds is not going to strike people out. you need strikeouts for a top pitcher in colorado. but the big thing is he's a curve ball guy. the curve ball doesn't work in colorado. they gave all that money to denny naegle, and darryl kile, and mike hampton. . . .

this is the point: look at the era's in colorado the past 12 years. however long they've been around. it's random. the era's are basically totally random. colorado is a ridiculous environment. it breaks the game. so you have to completely rethink what you're doing. the problem is you got baseball people, and you have to think like non-baseball people.

this colorado post has really thrown me for a loop. i got stuck at the "da . . ." of "darryl kile," and i've spent the last few days combing the internet. trying to figure this out. but i'm not gonna say i've figured it out. i sure would like to try some ideas, though.

one of the ideas that needs to be tried, in baseball in general, is the idea of pitchers who don't get injured.


Career Batting Statistics for Chris Iannetta:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 North Car. NCAA 19 NCA 171 33 35 9 7 .162 .795 .118 .333
2003 North Car. NCAA 20 NCA 236 37 34 8 15 .136 .856 .114 .319
2004 North Car. NCAA 21 NCA 249 48 47 15 19 .162 .811 .168 .336
2004 Asheville SAL 21 Col A 121 31 29 5 6 .204 .760 .120 .314
2005 Modesto Cali 22 Col A+ 265 47 61 11 20 .151 .770 .152 .276
2005 Tulsa Tex 22 Col AA 61 9 15 2 4 .129 .754 .130 .233
2006 Tulsa Tex 23 Col AA 157 27 26 11 12 .147 .834 .176 .321
2006 Colo Spr PCL 23 Col AAA 152 27 29 3 13 .151 .809 .130 .351
2006 Colorado MLB 23 Col MLB 78 14 17 2 4 .152 .782 .098 .260


the rockies have a bunch of guys who take a lot of pitches and hit for a lot of power and us prospect analysts love this because we know they're gonna go to denver and put up big numbers. then we can say "see, i predicted that guy would do that." but the big numbers in colorado don't mean what they mean in other parks, so what are we predicting? we're predicting a guy who will make a living at his chosen career. chris iannetta will do that.


Career Batting Statistics for Jeff Baker:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2000 Clemson NCAA 19 NCA 281 32 54 11 16 .102 .808 .119 .313
2001 Clemson NCAA 20 NCA 235 43 38 23 15 .155 .838 .193 .369
2002 Clemson NCAA 21 NCA 268 51 59 25 14 .160 .780 .187 .325
2003 Asheville SAL 22 Col A 266 39 79 11 17 .128 .703 .150 .289
2004 Visalia Cali 23 Col A+ 268 53 70 11 24 .165 .739 .177 .330
2004 Tulsa Tex 23 Col AA 92 7 22 4 6 .071 .761 .143 .297
2005 Colo Spr PCL 24 Col AAA 230 17 44 10 17 .069 .809 .145 .303
2005 Colorado MLB 24 Col MLB 38 5 12 1 4 .116 .684 .192 .211
2006 Colo Spr PCL 25 Col AAA 486 51 110 20 34 .095 .774 .144 .305
2006 Colorado MLB 25 Col MLB 57 1 14 5 9 .017 .754 .326 .368


jeff baker hits a lot of home runs. he's in the right park.


Career Pitching Statistics for Chaz Roe:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2005 Casper Pio 18 Col Rk 49.2 31 2 36 55 .167 .694 .016 4.17
2006 Asheville SAL 19 Col A 99.2 105 4 47 80 .104 .802 .012 4.06


chaz roe had pretty good results for a 19-year-old in the sally league. home run limitation is good. unfortunately, he was drafted by the rockies.

having finished with the baseball america list, we move, as usual, to kevin goldstein's list. goldstein leaves off jason hirsh, because he wasn't on the team yet, and baker and roe. he includes shane lindsay, because he hadn't been injured yet, samuel deduno, and joe koshansky.


Career Pitching Statistics for Shane Lindsay:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 Casper Pio 19 Col Rk 21.1 22 1 19 31 .181 .640 .018 6.75
2005 TriCity Nwes 20 Col A- 66.2 37 1 34 107 .125 .549 .008 1.89
2006 TriCity Nwes 21 Col A- 29.0 18 0 17 48 .139 .543 .000 2.79
2006 Asheville SAL 21 Col A 33.2 26 2 27 43 .175 .661 .024 2.67


shane lindsay had labrum surgery in october. so far in his career, he has shown very good contact percentages, good home run percentages, and bad walk percentages.


Career Pitching Statistics for Samuel Deduno:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 Casper Pio 21 Col Rk 76.1 62 3 32 118 .099 .595 .017 3.18
2005 Asheville SAL 22 Col A 89.2 82 9 65 110 .156 .687 .037 5.62
2006 Modesto Cali 23 Col A+ 146.1 121 3 92 167 .141 .702 .008 4.80


samuel deduno has good contact percentages and very good home run percentages, but bad walk percentages. unfortunately, he's a curveballer, and curveballs don't work in colorado.


Career Batting Statistics for Joe Koshansky:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2001 Virginia NCAA 19 NCA 15 6 7 0 0 .286 .533 .000 .133
2002 Virginia NCAA 20 NCA 45 6 24 1 2 .118 .467 .143 .156
2003 Virginia NCAA 21 NCA 182 39 49 9 13 .176 .731 .165 .320
2004 Virginia NCAA 22 NCA 228 35 53 16 18 .133 .768 .194 .302
2004 TriCity Nwes 22 Col A- 241 35 84 12 18 .127 .651 .191 .234
2005 Asheville SAL 23 Col A 461 64 122 36 32 .122 .735 .201 .291
2005 Tulsa Tex 23 Col AA 46 2 15 2 3 .042 .674 .161 .267
2006 Tulsa Tex 24 Col AA 502 70 134 31 28 .122 .733 .160 .284


joe koshansky will put up big numbers in colorado, assuming he cracks the lineup.

there's a bunch more guys who were mentioned in the articles, so we'll talk about them now.


Career Batting Statistics for Christopher Nelson:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2004 Casper Pio 18 Col Rk 147 22 42 4 9 .130 .714 .124 .347
2005 Asheville SAL 19 Col A 319 30 88 3 16 .086 .724 .082 .241
2006 Asheville SAL 20 Col A 473 39 101 11 39 .076 .786 .134 .260


chris nelson is a shortstop with good power who swings too much. he certainly could hit in colorado, but who couldn't.

he could probably hit anywhere if he stopped swinging so much.


Career Batting Statistics for Hector Gomez:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2006 Casper Pio 18 Col Rk 206 14 26 5 13 .064 .874 .100 .327
2006 TriCity Nwes 18 Col A- 46 1 14 0 3 .021 .696 .094 .244


hector gomez is a young shortstop with good contact skills. he's got a little pop in there too.


Career Batting Statistics for Corey Wimberly:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2004 Alcorn St NCAA 20 NCA 150 27 14 0 12 .153 .907 .088 .420
2005 Alcorn St NCAA 21 NCA 136 39 5 1 13 .223 .963 .107 .462
2005 Casper Pio 21 Col Rk 283 24 27 1 10 .078 .905 .043 .381
2006 Modesto Cali 22 Col A+ 344 47 42 2 10 .120 .878 .040 .325


corey wimberly is definitely one of the top ten prospects in this system. probably top-five. he's got a patient bat, and can get on base against anybody with contact, speed, and switch-hitting. then, when he gets on base, watch out. he stole 50 bases in 87 games last year.

he'd be much more valuable in a park that made sense for baseball.

he's a middle infielder.


Career Batting Statistics for Eric Young:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2004 Casper Pio 19 Col Rk 87 21 13 0 6 .194 .851 .081 .264
2005 Casper Pio 20 Col Rk 221 39 52 3 14 .150 .765 .101 .301
2006 Asheville SAL 21 Col A 483 77 75 5 34 .138 .845 .096 .295


eric young is another second-baseman with patience, contact, speed, and switch-hitting. he stole 87 bases last year. he doesn't have nearly the contact wimberly has. he might have better patience though.


Career Pitching Statistics for Juan Morillo:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 Casper Pio 19 Col Rk 64.0 85 6 40 44 .126 .841 .026 5.91
2004 TriCity Nwes 20 Col A- 66.1 56 0 41 73 .139 .714 .000 2.98
2005 Asheville SAL 21 Col A 33.2 40 2 13 43 .084 .695 .020 4.54
2005 Modesto Cali 21 Col A+ 112.1 107 10 65 101 .128 .773 .029 4.41
2006 Tulsa Tex 22 Col AA 140.1 128 13 80 132 .127 .760 .031 4.62
2006 Colorado MLB 22 Col MLB 4.0 8 3 3 4 .130 .800 .188 15.75


juan morillo throws hard, but he walks too many people. if he could get the walks down, he'd be useful.


Career Pitching Statistics for Josh Sullivan:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 Auburn NCAA 19 NCA 14.2 16 2 13 11 .178 .817 .041 8.59
2004 Auburn NCAA 20 NCA 1.0 1 0 1 1 .200 .750 .000 18.00
2005 Auburn NCAA 21 NCA 97.0 88 6 39 74 .093 .805 .020 4.18
2005 TriCity Nwes 21 Col A- 1.0 3 0 1 1 .143 .833 .000 27.00
2006 TriCity Nwes 22 Col A- 69.2 49 2 21 74 .075 .713 .011 2.71


josh sullivan had some good results at tricity, with decent walk rates, decent contact rates, and good home run rates, but he's far from the majors.

jesus, being a pitcher in the colorado rockies organization sucks.


Career Pitching Statistics for Darren Clarke:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2001 Casper Pio 20 Col Rk 55.1 76 3 33 42 .120 .826 .015 6.02
2002 TriCity Nwes 21 Col A- 40.0 51 3 19 38 .100 .778 .023 6.98
2003 Asheville SAL 22 Col A 157.1 155 22 59 107 .086 .829 .042 3.83
2004 Visalia Cali 23 Col A+ 35.1 54 6 16 27 .091 .831 .045 7.39
2005 TriCity Nwes 24 Col A- 14.0 9 0 2 18 .038 .647 .000 0.64
2005 Modesto Cali 24 Col A+ 6.0 13 2 3 4 .088 .871 .074 9.00
2006 Modesto Cali 25 Col A+ 26.2 13 1 7 37 .070 .602 .018 1.35


darren clarke had some really good numbers in modesto last year, but he hasn't gotten much playing time.

if he does well, he gets to pitch in colorado. congratulations, fuck you.


Career Pitching Statistics for Brandon Hynick:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 Birm South NCAA 19 NCA 57.1 49 5 20 50 .083 .774 .029 3.61
2005 Birm South NCAA 20 NCA 99.2 111 5 27 74 .062 .820 .015 3.34
2006 Birm South NCAA 21 NCA 100.2 90 1 26 89 .062 .773 .003 2.59
2006 Casper Pio 21 Col Rk 64.0 55 3 8 70 .031 .717 .017 2.39
2006 TriCity Nwes 21 Col A- 7.0 5 0 1 9 .037 .654 .000 2.57


brandon hynick is a righty with good control who pitched in casper last year. i'm starting to think control is the most important thing in colorado, because stuff don't make much difference.


Career Pitching Statistics for Manuel Corpas:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2000 Venoco VSL 17 Col Rk 2.1 5 0 0 3 .000 .750 .000 15.43
2002 Casper Pio 19 Col Rk 33.0 37 4 18 42 .117 .691 .043 5.73
2003 TriCity Nwes 20 Col A- 84.0 98 7 22 47 .059 .866 .023 5.79
2004 Asheville SAL 21 Col A 44.1 48 3 13 52 .067 .713 .023 3.05
2005 Modesto Cali 22 Col A+ 69.0 83 2 14 52 .046 .821 .008 3.78
2006 Tulsa Tex 23 Col AA 36.2 22 0 4 35 .029 .735 .000 0.98
2006 Colo Spr PCL 23 Col AAA 8.2 5 1 2 7 .061 .774 .042 1.04
2006 Colorado MLB 23 Col MLB 32.1 36 3 8 27 .057 .797 .028 3.62


manuel corpas made it to the big club and threw strikes for 32 innings. if he can keep doing that, he's got a job.

got to have a j-o-b if you wanna im-press me.

the rockies have a lot of guys with talent. it doesn't make a bit of difference. first of all, the talent is not that great. second, they have an insurmountable pitching problem. at least it is to them. the model of getting a lot of guys who bash home runs and squeaking into the playoffs has worked in the past, and it could work again, but to have a truly good team they're gonna have to do things very differently. whatever they do, they are many years away, because they are nowhere close to the kind of talent the diamondbacks and dodgers have.
Comments:
This is why I love you internet bloggers. How many times have you seen these guys play? I'm sure you sleep with Moneyball under your pillow every night and pray at the alter of Bill James, but try getting in touch with reality before posting idiotic lies.

Greg Reynolds is a curve ball pitcher? On what planet?
 
kevin goldstein's report says he throws a curve ball.

my stated goal is to provide analysis based on numbers. it's funny that you lump me in with sabermetricians because i'm the only numbers guy who agrees with baseball people.

i don't know if you've read moneyball, but you seem threatened by it. you shouldn't worry though, because it's crap. michael lewis doesn't know anything about baseball.

as for bill james, he's a great writer but his analysis is flawed. to say i pray at his altar, though, is close to correct.
 
Post a Comment

Powered by Blogger