top prospects: twins
last time was the royals. this time is the twins.

1. Matt Garza, rhp 
2. Glen Perkins, lhp 
3. Kevin Slowey, rhp 
4. Chris Parmelee, of 
5. Anthony Swarzak, rhp 
6. Pat Neshek, rhp 
7. Alexi Casilla, ss/2b 
8. Joe Benson, of 
9. Paul Kelly, ss 
10. J.D. Durbin, rhp 

as usual, the twins have a lot of good stuff.

Career Pitching Statistics for Matt Garza:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2003 Fresno St    NCAA 19     NCA  43.1  63   8  31  21 .138 .891 .047  9.55
2004 Fresno St    NCAA 20     NCA  90.0 103  12  34  77 .084 .794 .041  4.90
2005 Fresno St    NCAA 21     NCA 108.1 110   5  37 120 .078 .724 .016  3.07
2005 Elizabetht   App  21 Min Rk   19.2  14   3   6  25 .076 .658 .063  3.66
2005 Beloit       Midw 21 Min A    56.0  53   5  15  64 .064 .710 .032  3.54
2006 Fort Myers   FSL  22 Min A+   44.1  27   3  11  53 .064 .669 .028  1.42
2006 NewBritain   East 22 Min AA   57.1  40   2  14  68 .062 .679 .014  2.51
2006 Rochester    IL   22 Min AAA  34.0  20   1   7  33 .054 .730 .011  1.85
2006 Minnesota    MLB  22 Min MLB  50.0  62   6  23  38 .098 .821 .034  5.76

matt garza had a mediocre debut in the major leagues. but he started the year in a-ball. his control is very good; his strikeout rates are very good; and his home run prevention is very good. he's very good.

Career Pitching Statistics for Glen Perkins:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2003 Minnesota    NCAA 20     NCA 105.1 100   5  23 117 .052 .719 .017  2.91
2004 Minnesota    NCAA 21     NCA 111.1  89   6  21 113 .047 .733 .019  2.83
2004 Elizabetht   App  21 Min Rk   12.0   8   0   4  22 .083 .500 .000  2.25
2004 Quad Cties   Midw 21 Min A    48.1  33   2  12  49 .063 .725 .016  1.30
2005 Fort Myers   FSL  22 Min A+   55.0  41   2  13  66 .059 .680 .014  2.13
2005 NewBritain   East 22 Min AA   79.0  80   4  35  67 .099 .789 .016  4.90
2006 NewBritain   East 23 Min AA  117.1 109  11  45 131 .089 .716 .033  3.91
2006 Rochester    IL   23 Min AAA   4.1   6   0   5   3 .208 .842 .000  2.08
2006 Minnesota    MLB  23 Min MLB   5.2   3   0   0   6 .000 .700 .000  1.59

glen perkins spent most of 2006 in double-a. he had a walk percentage of .089, which is good. he had a contact percentage of .716, which is good. he had a home run percentage of .033, which is decent, but he was much better in previous years, so he's good. he's a lefty. he's got that mojo.

Career Pitching Statistics for Kevin Slowey:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2003 Winthrop     NCAA 19     NCA  86.0  86  10  18  90 .050 .738 .039  3.98
2004 Winthrop     NCAA 20     NCA 119.2 120   8  10 104 .020 .783 .021  3.23
2005 Winthrop     NCAA 21     NCA 136.1  91   8  13 134 .025 .732 .022  2.18
2005 Elizabetht   App  21 Min Rk    7.2   2   1   0  15 .000 .400 .100  1.17
2005 Beloit       Midw 21 Min A    64.1  42   4   8  69 .033 .706 .024  2.24
2006 Fort Myers   FSL  22 Min A+   89.1  52   2   9  99 .027 .691 .009  1.01
2006 NewBritain   East 22 Min AA   59.1  50   6  13  52 .054 .772 .034  3.19

kevin slowey has excellent control and good contact rates (contact rates, strikeout rates, same thing. in this case, .772, .691, and .706 in his past three stints). he also limits home runs, which is typical of pitchers with good control. he is definitely gonna make it.

Career Batting Statistics for Christopher Parmelee:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2006 GCL Twins    GCL  18 Min Rk  156  23  47   8  11 .128 .699 .174 .279
2006 Beloit       Midw 18 Min A    22   5   9   0   1 .185 .591 .077 .227

chris parmelee is a young outfielder. so far he has shown good patience and extreme power, but not a lot of contact ability. since he's so young, i expect him to make it. he could be a good one.

Career Pitching Statistics for Anthony Swarzak:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2004 GCL Twins    GCL  18 Min Rk   48.0  46   1   6  42 .031 .779 .007  2.63
2005 Beloit       Midw 19 Min A    91.1  81   7  32 101 .083 .715 .028  4.04
2005 Fort Myers   FSL  19 Min A+   59.0  72   3  11  55 .042 .779 .015  3.66
2006 Fort Myers   FSL  20 Min A+  145.2 131   8  60 131 .096 .769 .018  3.27

anthony swarzak is a young, strong righthander, who so far has limited home runs, but hasn't shown the kind of control or strikeouts you'd like to see. he had a very good 2005, but his 2006 makes me wary. apparently he had a very strong finish. i'm reluctant to predict success, but it certainly could happen.

there's something weird about these numbers. i can't quite put my finger on it. it's like they're not that great, but they're all right there. maybe he's on the threshold of breakout. i've seen it in hitters, but never in pitchers.

Career Pitching Statistics for Pat Neshek:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2002 Butler       NCAA 21     NCA  87.0  96   4  22  94 .058 .737 .015  3.10
2002 Elizabetht   App  21 Min Rk   27.1  13   0   6  41 .059 .568 .000  0.99
2003 Quad City    Midw 22 Min A    34.1  20   0  11  53 .082 .569 .000  0.52
2003 Fort Myers   FSL  22 Min A+   29.1  22   2   6  29 .052 .736 .025  2.15
2003 NewBritain   East 22 Min AA    7.2   7   2   3   5 .091 .833 .080  5.87
2004 Fort Myers   FSL  23 Min A+   18.1  16   2   2  19 .027 .732 .038  2.95
2004 NewBritain   East 23 Min AA   35.1  34   2  18  38 .114 .729 .020  3.82
2005 NewBritain   East 24 Min AA   82.1  69   9  21  95 .062 .699 .041  2.19
2006 Rochester    IL   25 Min AAA  60.0  41   7  14  87 .060 .606 .052  1.95
2006 Minnesota    MLB  25 Min MLB  37.0  23   6   6  53 .043 .604 .074  2.19

it's a bit unfair to call pat neshek a rookie as he has already played in the major leagues and completely dominated. my first thought, on looking at these numbers, was "what took them so long?" to get him up there. but then you look at his story, and you find out he's a sidearmer. there's a prejudice against sidearmers. but they couldn't keep this kid down. after an insane .060 walk percentage and .606 contact percentage in 60 innings of triple-a, they called him up and he improved. 53 strikeouts and 6 walks in 37 innings is retarded.

Career Batting Statistics for Alexi Casilla:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2004 Az Angels    Ariz 20 Ana Rk  165  19  10   0   5 .103 .939 .032 .258
2004 Provo        Pio  20 Ana Rk   12   5   0   0   2 .294 1.00 .167 .333
2004 Cedar Rpds   Midw 20 Ana A    29   5   4   0   3 .147 .862 .120 .310
2005 Cedar Rpds   Midw 21 Laa A   309  35  31   3  14 .102 .900 .061 .325
2005 Arkansas     Tex  21 Laa AA   19   2   3   0   0 .095 .842 .000 .211
2005 Salt Lake    PCL  21 Laa AAA  39   3   6   0   0 .071 .846 .000 .256
2006 Fort Myers   FSL  22 Min A+  324  32  36   0  18 .090 .889 .063 .331
2006 NewBritain   East 22 Min AA  170  22  20   1  11 .115 .882 .080 .294
2006 Minnesota    MLB  22 Min MLB   4   2   1   0   0 .333 .750 .000 .250

alexi casilla is a slap-and-run speedster with good defense who has all the skills necessary to succeed in the major leagues. what you don't see in these numbers is that he stole 50 bases last year. plate discipline will be important, but he's ready. put him in, coach.

Career Batting Statistics for Joe Benson:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2006 GCL Twins    GCL   0 Min Rk  198  23  41   5  16 .104 .793 .134 .260
2006 Beloit       Midw  0 Min A    19   0   6   0   0 .000 .684 .000 .263

joe benson is another high-school outfielder who showed good power in rookie ball. he also showed very good contact. it's a small sample size, but he looks good.

Career Batting Statistics for Paul Kelly:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2005 GCL Twins    GCL  18 Min Rk  140  19  36   2   6 .119 .743 .077 .277
2005 Beloit       Midw 18 Min A    17   2   3   1   2 .105 .824 .214 .313
2006 Beloit       Midw 19 Min A   380  43  60   3  26 .102 .842 .091 .280

paul kelly is a young shortstop with a strong arm and balanced hitting skills. i think he's gonna make it.

Career Pitching Statistics for J.D. Durbin:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2000 GCL Twins    GCL  18 Min Rk    2.0   2   0   0   4 .000 .500 .000  0.00
2001 Elizabetht   App  19 Min Rk   33.2  23   2  17  39 .121 .685 .024  1.87
2002 Quad City    Midw 20 Min A   161.0 144  14  51 163 .075 .740 .030  3.19
2003 Fort Myers   FSL  21 Min A+   87.1  73   3  22  69 .062 .794 .011  3.09
2003 NewBritain   East 21 Min AA   94.2 102  10  29  70 .070 .819 .032  3.14
2004 NewBritain   East 22 Min AA   64.1  62   4  22  53 .079 .792 .020  2.52
2004 Rochester    IL   22 Min AAA  35.2  49   4  16  38 .093 .756 .034  4.54
2004 Minnesota    MLB  22 Min MLB   7.1  12   0   6   6 .150 .824 .000  7.36
2005 Rochester    IL   23 Min AAA 104.0  97   8  51  90 .111 .780 .025  4.33
2006 Rochester    IL   24 Min AAA  89.0  67   3  50  81 .130 .757 .012  2.33

j.d. durbin is getting old, and i frankly don't see what the deal is here. he doesn't get a lot of strikeouts, he doesn't really limit home runs, and he's walked way too many people over the past two years. is he a sinkerballer? sometimes sinkerballers can succeed despite not having good numbers.

kevin goldstein left off neshek, benson, and durbin, and added eduardo morlan, alexander smit, and david winfree. i guess he figured neshek wasn't a prospect anymore.

before i get to them, i wanna talk about how deep this list is. pat neshek is a killer, and the pitchers ahead of him are very good. the young hitters are also very good. i would have a hard time ranking these kids. alexi casilla is a major leaguer already. i can't believe the angels traded him. i mean i can believe it, because they've got so many middle infielders, but i don't think they know what they had.

ok.

Career Pitching Statistics for Eduardo Morlan:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2004 GCL Twins    GCL  18 Min Rk   25.1  25   1  10  28 .090 .723 .014  2.84
2005 Elizabetht   App  19 Min Rk   22.0   6   0   6  30 .077 .583 .000  0.82
2005 Beloit       Midw 19 Min A    51.1  39   5  31  55 .138 .715 .036  4.38
2006 Beloit       Midw 20 Min A   106.1  78   6  38 125 .087 .685 .022  2.29

eduardo morlan had a very good performance in a-ball last year, with a .087 walk percentage and a very strong .685 contact percentage. i like this kid a lot.

Career Pitching Statistics for Alex Smit:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2003 GCL Twins    GCL  17 Min Rk   38.0  19   0  20  40 .131 .699 .000  1.18
2004 Elizabetht   App  18 Min Rk   28.1  25   0  10  43 .083 .609 .000  2.54
2005 Elizabetht   App  19 Min Rk   45.2  25   3  12  86 .069 .469 .039  1.97
2005 Beloit       Midw 19 Min A    49.2  58   9  28  54 .119 .739 .059  5.98
2006 Beloit       Midw 20 Min A   108.1  77   6  53 141 .116 .649 .023  2.99

alex smit also pitched in a-ball and had a very strong contact percentage. his control is not as good though. that can be tough to improve. according to goldstein, it was a matter of getting his pitches together, which he has done.

that 2005 line seems hard to believe.

Career Batting Statistics for David Winfree:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2003 GCL Twins    GCL  18 Min Rk   70   3  16   0   3 .041 .771 .056 .129
2004 Elizabetht   App  19 Min Rk  219  22  51   8   8 .091 .767 .095 .286
2005 Beloit       Midw 20 Min A   568  33  93  16  36 .055 .836 .109 .294
2006 GCL Twins    GCL  21 Min Rk   15   1   4   0   1 .063 .733 .091 .200
2006 Fort Myers   FSL  21 Min A+  265  22  59  13  15 .077 .777 .136 .276

david winfree is a third baseman who sat out the first half of 2006 because he didn't want to play. he swings too much, but he hits for power. if he took more pitches, his contact would improve. these numbers look like matt kemp's did before his explosion in los angeles last year.

the baseball america article listed five other third basemen who could be the answer. we'll talk about them now.

Career Batting Statistics for Matt Moses:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2003 GCL Twins    GCL  18 Min Rk   67   5   9   0   6 .069 .866 .103 .385
2004 GCL Twins    GCL  19 Min Rk    4   0   0   0   0 .000 1.00 .000 .250
2004 Quad Cties   Midw 19 Min A   112  13  25   3   7 .104 .777 .115 .223
2005 Fort Myers   FSL  20 Min A+  267  31  59   7  17 .104 .779 .115 .306
2005 NewBritain   East 20 Min AA  187  17  51   6  10 .083 .727 .118 .210
2006 NewBritain   East 21 Min AA  477  38 113  15  18 .074 .763 .091 .249

matt moses seemed a little overmatched in double-a last year, but he's still young. he could make it. he did hit 15 home runs. he swings too much.

Career Batting Statistics for Trevor Plouffe:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2004 Elizabetht   App  18 Min Rk  240  22  34   4   9 .084 .858 .063 .283
2005 Beloit       Midw 19 Min A   473  54  78  13  18 .102 .835 .078 .223
2006 Fort Myers   FSL  20 Min A+  460  62  93   4  30 .119 .798 .093 .246

trevor plouffe i don't know. he didn't hit for contact or power last year. his 2005 was very promising. maybe he'll get it back. maybe there's nothing to worry about.

Career Batting Statistics for Whit Robbins:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2004 Ga Tech      NCAA  0     NCA 148  30  20   2  11 .169 .865 .102 .313
2005 Ga Tech      NCAA  0     NCA 166  43  21   5  14 .206 .873 .131 .265
2006 Ga Tech      NCAA  0     NCA 251  57  38  13  20 .185 .849 .155 .352
2006 Beloit       Midw  0 Min A   115  25  17   3  10 .179 .852 .133 .304

well whit robbins looks very good. i mean very, very good. he has incredible patience, very good contact, and very good power. how did he last until the fourth round? this guy looks like a star. i don't get it.

it seems like this third base situation is quickly becoming an embarrassment of riches.

Career Batting Statistics for Garrett Olson:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2006 Elizabetht   App  21 Min Rk  177  25  30   0  10 .124 .831 .068 .313

well this is not much to go on. we don't have garrett olson's numbers in college but it doesn't look like he has much power. he showed good plate discipline.

i still can't believe whit robbins lasted till the fourth round.

Career Batting Statistics for Danny Valencia:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2004 UNCGrnsbr    NCAA  0     NCA 223  17  34   8  17 .071 .848 .132 .338
2005 Miami        NCAA  0     NCA 233  23  23   6  18 .090 .901 .114 .300
2006 Miami        NCAA  0     NCA 249  26  39   9  10 .095 .843 .090 .324
2006 Elizabetht   App   0 Min Rk  193  18  34   8  13 .085 .824 .132 .311

do people just not draft college third basemen? danny valencia looks like a very good pick in the 19th round. he hit for contact and power in rookie ball. he needs to be more patient.

finally, we take a look at the centerfield situation.

Career Batting Statistics for Denard Span:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2003 Elizabetht   App  19 Min Rk  207  27  34   1   6 .115 .836 .040 .271
2004 GCL Twins    GCL  20 Min Rk   16   3   3   0   2 .158 .813 .154 .375
2004 Quad Cties   Midw 20 Min A   241  37  49   0   7 .133 .797 .036 .267
2005 Fort Myers   FSL  21 Min A+  187  23  25   1   6 .110 .866 .043 .339
2005 NewBritain   East 21 Min AA  269  30  41   0  11 .100 .848 .048 .285
2006 NewBritain   East 22 Min AA  537  45  78   2  22 .077 .855 .052 .285

denard span looks very good. he's a lefty with speed who makes contact. so he can slap-and-run. he needs to maintain plate discipline. i think he'll make it.

this organization is crawling with talent.
- posted by julien @ 3:33 AM