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Wednesday, February 07, 2007
top prospects: royals
it was the tigers. now it's the royals.
1. Alex Gordon, 3b
2. Luke Hochevar, rhp
3. Billy Butler, of
4. Chris Lubanski, of
5. Tyler Lumsden, lhp
6. Erik Cordier, rhp
7. Mitch Maier, of
8. Justin Huber, of/1b
9. Billy Buckner, rhp
10. Brent Fisher, lhp
last year's list
the royals have some good kids here, but they are far from becoming a winning team. the best case scenario is to do what the braves did in the late 80's (lose while developing a farm system), then become the team of the 2010's.
Career Batting Statistics for Alex Gordon:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2003 Nebraska NCAA 19 NCA 216 40 34 7 15 .156 .843 .121 .319
2004 Nebraska NCAA 20 NCA 215 57 34 18 23 .210 .842 .227 .365
2006 Wichita Tex 22 Kc AA 488 88 113 29 40 .153 .768 .184 .325
i'm gonna make an argument that's difficult to make: alex gordon is not as good as everyone thinks he is. the argument is difficult for two reasons:
1. there is a misperception of value in the major leagues, among analysts.
2. alex gordon is really fucking good.
he's just not as good as everyone thinks he is. now, to explain point 1. there is a misperception of value. the reason this is relevant is alex gordon is the type of player who is overrated. he walks a lot and hits home runs. those are good things. but he doesn't make a lot of contact. so he's not going to be as good against good pitchers. so he's not going to be worth as many wins as his runs created would imply.
remember point 2. he's really fucking good. anyway, the people who overrate his skills are gonna see him walk a lot and hit a lot of home runs and they're gonna say "see? he's really fucking good." and he is really fucking good. just not as good as everyone thinks he is.
Career Pitching Statistics for Luke Hochevar:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 Tennessee NCAA 19 NCA 77.2 87 9 24 73 .070 .772 .036 4.64
2004 Tennessee NCAA 20 NCA 63.0 52 7 23 60 .087 .751 .039 2.86
2005 Tennessee NCAA 21 NCA 139.2 104 9 54 154 .094 .706 .024 2.26
2006 Fort Worth amer 22 ind 22.2 20 1 11 34 .111 .614 .019 2.38
2006 Burlington Midw 22 Kc A 15.1 8 2 2 16 .036 .704 .053 1.17
luke hochevar had a very good final season in tennesse, getting strikeouts and limiting home runs in an offense-heavy park. he also had good results in his short stints in the minors. he was drafted in 2005 but he held out.
i gotta say this: the numbers, to me, don't bear out the kind of hype he's getting. i think he'll be a good pitcher, and i think he'll pitch in the major leagues. but i don't think he'll be a difference maker. i think he'll be a guy-to-strong-contributor.
Career Batting Statistics for Billy Butler:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2004 idaho flls Pio 18 Kc Rk 263 61 63 10 25 .188 .760 .175 .373
2005 High Dsert Cali 19 Kc A+ 382 48 80 25 32 .112 .791 .189 .348
2005 Wichita Tex 19 Kc AA 112 7 18 5 9 .059 .839 .149 .313
2006 Wichita Tex 20 Kc AA 485 49 67 15 34 .092 .862 .117 .331
billy butler, to me, is a better hitter than alex gordon.
alex gordon is really fucking good, but billy butler is younger, played on the same team as gordon, and hit for a better average.
alex gordon had a lot more power than billy butler. that's true, but he's two years older, and butler makes much better contact. billy butler could be a right-handed george brett. without the fielding.
who's a better prospect? hard to say. gordon runs and throws. but billy butler sure can hit.
actually it's not hard to say. it's gordon.
Career Batting Statistics for Chris Lubanski:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2003 Az Royals Ariz 18 Kc Rk 221 20 50 4 10 .083 .774 .082 .326
2004 Kane Cty Midw 19 Oak A 4 0 2 0 0 .000 .500 .000 .000
2004 Burlington Midw 19 Kc A 488 47 104 9 33 .088 .787 .109 .275
2005 High Dsert Cali 20 Kc A+ 538 43 131 28 44 .074 .757 .177 .301
2006 Wichita Tex 21 Kc AA 529 75 112 15 45 .124 .788 .144 .282
this was quite an offense. chris lubanski was also on that team with gordon and butler, and he can hit too. he's got patience and power, and he's young. he could use a little more contact, but he's got it. he's gonna make it. hard work required etc.
Career Pitching Statistics for Tyler Lumsden:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 Clemson NCAA 19 NCA 58.0 56 5 39 63 .145 .726 .030 5.28
2003 Clemson NCAA 20 NCA 86.0 82 8 31 72 .084 .788 .030 3.77
2004 Clemson NCAA 21 NCA 81.1 80 3 37 88 .102 .728 .013 3.98
2004 WinstSalm Caro 21 Chw A+ 39.1 45 2 20 31 .109 .810 .015 4.12
2006 Birmingham Sou 23 Chw AA 123.2 114 9 40 72 .076 .852 .022 2.69
2006 Wichita Tex 23 Kc AA 35.1 35 3 20 24 .124 .830 .026 3.06
tyler lumsden i don't know he's a lefty, so that's good, and he limits home runs, so that's good, but i just don't see enough control or strikeouts to really do it here. there's a good chance he'll make it. there's not a good chance he'll be a difference maker.
Career Pitching Statistics for Erik Cordier:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 Az Royals Ariz 18 Kc Rk 34.2 38 1 21 22 .129 .845 .008 5.19
2006 idaho flls Pio 20 Kc Rk 16.0 11 0 3 19 .048 .678 .000 3.38
2006 Burlington Midw 20 Kc A 36.2 27 3 14 23 .093 .832 .026 2.70
erik cordier is a kid with talent who has a lot of work to do.
Career Batting Statistics for Mitch Maier:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2001 Toledo NCAA 19 NCA 163 13 23 3 12 .074 .859 .107 .444
2002 Toledo NCAA 20 NCA 222 25 25 14 18 .101 .887 .162 .362
2003 Toledo NCAA 21 NCA 199 37 9 9 18 .157 .955 .142 .448
2003 Az Royals Ariz 21 Kc Rk 206 20 25 2 20 .088 .879 .122 .350
2004 Burlington Midw 22 Kc A 318 27 51 4 27 .078 .840 .116 .300
2004 Wilmington Caro 22 Kc A+ 176 17 29 3 11 .088 .835 .095 .264
2005 High Dsert Cali 23 Kc A+ 214 13 43 8 27 .057 .799 .205 .336
2005 Wichita Tex 23 Kc AA 325 17 47 7 26 .050 .855 .119 .255
2006 Wichita Tex 24 Kc AA 552 48 96 14 42 .080 .826 .123 .306
2006 Kansas Cty MLB 24 Kc MLB 13 2 4 0 0 .133 .692 .000 .154
mitch maier is on the threshold of breakout in all categories. he finally got some power (actually he got it last year), and his contact is coming through. he needs to be a little more patient. at the plate. in the game, he needs to continue to work really hard, focus completely on baseball and give it everything he's got. go, mitch!
Career Batting Statistics for Justin Huber:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2001 Kingsport App 19 Nym Rk 163 30 42 7 12 .155 .742 .157 .314
2001 Brooklyn NYPL 19 Nym A- 9 0 4 0 0 .000 .556 .000 .000
2001 St. Lucie FSL 19 Nym A+ 6 0 2 0 0 .000 .667 .000 .000
2002 Capitl Cty SAL 20 Nym A 334 68 81 11 24 .169 .757 .138 .291
2002 St. Lucie FSL 20 Nym A+ 102 17 18 3 3 .143 .824 .071 .270
2003 St. Lucie FSL 21 Nym A+ 185 26 30 9 15 .123 .838 .155 .284
2003 Binghamton East 21 Nym AA 194 26 54 6 13 .118 .722 .136 .264
2004 St. Lucie FSL 22 Nym A+ 49 6 8 2 2 .109 .837 .098 .245
2004 Binghamton East 22 Nym AA 237 58 57 11 17 .197 .759 .156 .271
2004 Norfolk IL 22 Nym AAA 16 3 3 0 2 .158 .813 .154 .313
2005 Wichita Tex 23 Kc AA 340 56 70 16 25 .141 .794 .152 .343
2005 Omaha PCL 23 Kc AAA 113 18 33 7 7 .137 .708 .175 .274
2005 Kansas Cty MLB 23 Kc MLB 79 6 20 0 3 .071 .747 .051 .218
2006 Omaha PCL 24 Kc AAA 353 44 94 15 24 .111 .734 .151 .278
2006 Kansas Cty MLB 24 Kc MLB 10 1 4 0 1 .091 .600 .167 .200
when the prospects are this old you know the system isn't good. justin huber is a catcher who has been very highly rated at times due to his power. the problem i see is his contact. he had a very good season in double-a in 2005. he should be able to play in the major leagues, but, due to his contact problems, it will be a tough adjustment.
according to the list, he is no longer a catcher, which severly limits his prospect possibilities.
Career Pitching Statistics for Billy Buckner:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 S Carolina NCAA 21 NCA 84.0 77 9 23 105 .065 .681 .040 3.32
2004 idaho flls Pio 21 Kc Rk 30.0 36 4 4 37 .031 .706 .045 3.30
2005 Burlington Midw 22 Kc A 60.1 66 9 17 60 .064 .757 .048 3.88
2005 High Dsert Cali 22 Kc A+ 94.0 105 10 46 92 .106 .762 .034 5.36
2006 High Dsert Cali 23 Kc A+ 90.0 92 6 47 85 .115 .765 .022 3.90
2006 Wichita Tex 23 Kc AA 75.2 78 7 39 63 .113 .793 .029 4.64
billy buckner is a right-handed pitcher who could get time in the show if he improves his control.
Career Pitching Statistics for Brent Fisher:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2005 Az Royals Ariz 18 Kc Rk 50.1 48 2 13 69 .061 .653 .015 3.04
2006 Az Royals Ariz 19 Kc Rk 68.1 41 2 19 98 .072 .602 .014 2.11
2006 idaho flls Pio 19 Kc Rk 4.0 2 1 0 9 .000 .357 .200 2.25
brent fisher is a young left-handed pitcher with very good stuff. i say that, and then i read kevin goldstein's report that says he doesn't have good stuff. whatever he has, he has very good control, good strikeouts, and good home run limitation. we'll have to see what happens, but players with these types of numbers tend to make it.
kevin goldstein left cordier, huber, and buckner off the list. instead he has ryan braun, danny christensen, jeff bianchi. in general, i like goldstein's lists better than baseball america's.
Career Pitching Statistics for Ryan Braun:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2000 Wake Forst NCAA 20 NCA 52.0 45 4 16 28 .074 .861 .023 3.81
2001 Wake Forst NCAA 21 NCA 55.0 57 4 23 57 .094 .743 .024 4.58
2002 Wake Forst NCAA 22 NCA 33.0 39 2 14 28 .092 .797 .018 5.45
2003 UNLV NCAA 23 NCA 36.2 37 2 18 53 .109 .639 .021 3.44
2003 Az Royals Ariz 23 Kc Rk 21.1 15 0 10 25 .112 .684 .000 2.95
2004 Wilmington Caro 24 Kc A+ 57.0 48 2 25 58 .102 .735 .012 2.21
2005 High Dsert Cali 25 Kc A+ 4.0 3 0 2 6 .118 .600 .000 4.50
2005 Wichita Tex 25 Kc AA 4.2 15 0 7 1 .194 .966 .000 17.36
2006 Wichita Tex 26 Kc AA 40.2 30 2 16 58 .095 .618 .021 2.21
2006 Omaha PCL 26 Kc AAA 25.0 23 0 13 22 .117 .776 .000 2.16
2006 Kansas Cty MLB 26 Kc MLB 10.2 13 2 3 6 .063 .867 .051 6.75
ryan braun is a hard-throwing right-hander who really limits home runs. he's a little old to be a prospect, but he's got more chance of being useful than the other guys at the end of the list. milwaukee also has a ryan braun.
Career Pitching Statistics for Danny Christensen:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 GCL Royals GCL 19 Kc Rk 29.0 20 2 14 28 .116 .738 .025 3.10
2002 Spokane Nwes 19 Kc A- 32.2 24 3 14 23 .103 .811 .030 1.10
2003 Az Royals Ariz 20 Kc Rk 12.0 8 0 5 12 .102 .727 .000 2.25
2003 Burlington Midw 20 Kc A 79.0 83 11 31 46 .088 .856 .040 5.92
2004 Burlington Midw 21 Kc A 3.0 6 0 3 2 .167 .867 .000 15.00
2005 Burlington Midw 22 Kc A 109.1 100 9 53 110 .110 .743 .028 3.54
2006 High Dsert Cali 23 Kc A+ 162.0 175 23 58 153 .081 .769 .045 4.89
danny christensen is a left-handed pitcher with a fastball and a curveball who pitched in a very difficult park. it doesn't seem like he's the type of pitcher who does well in that park either so the fact that he was able to get decent walk and contact percentages means he's probably pretty good. that said, he was 23 in single-a, so he's got a lot of work to do. wichita won't be a particularly good park for him either. neither will kauffman stadium, for that matter. he should try to be a dodger. that's not very helpful advice.
Career Batting Statistics for Jeff Bianchi:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2005 Az Royals Ariz 18 Kc Rk 103 19 22 6 11 .156 .786 .210 .408
2006 Az Royals Ariz 19 Kc Rk 43 11 3 2 4 .204 .930 .150 .429
well, it looks like jeff bianchi has patience and power. hopefully he'll stay healthy and we'll see what he can do.
the baseball america article also mentioned trades for tyler lumsden, blake johnson, julio pimentel, joselo diaz, daniel cortes, and ryan shealy. we did lumsden already. here are the rest.
Career Pitching Statistics for Blake Johnson:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 Ogden Pio 19 La Rk 57.0 73 5 19 57 .072 .766 .027 6.47
2005 Columbus SAL 20 La A 100.0 83 4 36 88 .086 .770 .014 3.33
2006 High Dsert Cali 21 Kc A+ 11.0 15 1 0 9 .000 .813 .026 5.73
2006 Vero Beach FSL 21 La A+ 106.0 121 11 19 73 .041 .834 .030 4.92
blake johnson has very good control, which will be a help as he moves up. strikeouts seem to be a limiting factor.
Career Pitching Statistics for Julio Pimentel:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 Columbus SAL 18 La A 111.1 106 14 47 102 .097 .768 .041 3.48
2005 Vero Beach FSL 19 La A+ 124.0 149 9 43 105 .076 .798 .022 5.08
2006 High Dsert Cali 20 Kc A+ 22.2 21 3 10 26 .101 .708 .048 3.18
2006 Vero Beach FSL 20 La A+ 74.1 85 4 45 77 .127 .750 .017 5.69
julio pimentel has good stuff but he lacks control. he has a lot of work to do.
Career Pitching Statistics for Joselo Diaz:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2001 great flls Pio 21 La Rk 1.0 0 0 0 2 .000 .333 .000 0.00
2002 S. Georgia SAL 22 La A 25.2 14 1 25 33 .216 .637 .017 4.21
2003 St. Lucie FSL 23 Nym A+ 30.1 16 0 25 41 .189 .617 .000 2.97
2003 Vero Beach FSL 23 La A+ 61.2 39 2 48 69 .176 .692 .013 3.50
2003 Jcksnvlle Sou 23 La AA 7.2 5 0 3 7 .097 .750 .000 0.00
2004 Binghamton East 24 Nym AA 83.1 59 3 70 90 .185 .709 .014 5.18
2004 Montgomery Sou 24 Tb AA 30.0 26 4 27 37 .189 .681 .051 5.40
2005 Akron East 25 Cle AA 15.2 5 0 3 19 .055 .635 .000 0.00
2005 Montgomery Sou 25 Tb AA 23.2 22 2 20 22 .177 .763 .028 9.13
2005 Buffalo IL 25 Cle AAA 34.2 27 4 26 44 .166 .664 .046 3.89
2006 Kansas Cty MLB 26 Kc MLB 6.2 10 2 8 3 .211 .900 .074 10.80
joselo diaz has really good stuff but really bad control. it doesn't look like he'll be effective in the majors.
Career Pitching Statistics for Daniel Cortes:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2005 Bristol App 18 Chw Rk 38.1 44 2 13 38 .076 .761 .017 5.17
2006 Burlington Midw 19 Kc A 35.0 40 7 17 30 .105 .793 .061 6.69
2006 Kannapolis SAL 19 Chw A 107.2 109 6 38 96 .081 .778 .018 4.01
daniel cortes is a young righthander with an encouraging performance in the sally league. he hasn't done anything impressive yet, but he could.
Career Batting Statistics for Ryan Shealy:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2000 Florida NCAA 21 NCA 41 11 17 3 0 .212 .585 .125 .122
2001 Florida NCAA 22 NCA 149 27 34 5 8 .153 .772 .113 .291
2002 Florida NCAA 23 NCA 266 40 31 23 16 .131 .883 .166 .379
2002 Casper Pio 23 Col Rk 240 68 52 19 22 .221 .783 .218 .368
2003 Visalia Cali 24 Col A+ 348 56 72 14 32 .139 .793 .167 .299
2004 Tulsa Tex 25 Col AA 473 77 123 29 35 .140 .740 .183 .318
2005 Colo Spr PCL 26 Col AAA 418 48 81 26 32 .103 .806 .172 .328
2005 Colorado MLB 26 Col MLB 91 13 22 2 7 .125 .758 .130 .330
2006 Colo Spr PCL 27 Col AAA 224 24 34 15 17 .097 .848 .168 .284
2006 Kansas Cty MLB 27 Kc MLB 193 17 50 7 11 .081 .741 .126 .280
2006 Colorado MLB 27 Col MLB 9 0 4 0 2 .000 .556 .400 .222
ryan shealy isn't a prospect, he's a major leaguer. he has the talent to contribute in a reserve role.
the royals have some really good players here, and dayton moore is increasing their depth. these are good things, but the team is a long way away from competing.
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