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Wednesday, January 31, 2007
top prospects: tigers
last time it was the indians. this time it's the tigers.
1. Cameron Maybin, of
2. Andrew Miller, lhp
3. Brent Clevlen, of
4. Jair Jurrjens, rhp
5. Jordan Tata, rhp
6. Eulogio de la Cruz, rhp
7. Gorkys Hernandez, of
8. Dallas Trahern, rhp
9. Jeff Larish, 1b
10. Scott Sizemore, ss/2b
i was unimpressed by last year's list. the tigers didn't care though. the combination of healthy veterans, two incredible rookies, and strong performances by up-and-comers took them all the way to the world series. this year, health and sophomore slumps are likely to be impediments. it will be a long road back.
Career Batting Statistics for Cameron Maybin:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2006 West Mich Midw 19 Det A 390 55 116 9 26 .124 .703 .128 .304
alright, this is a lot of talent. they draft him out of high school, and his first pro experience is a-ball. cameron maybin is fast, he can throw, and he's got all the hitting skills. contact looks low, but remember, this is his first pro experience. he's gonna be a good one. that's an understatement.
Career Pitching Statistics for Andrew Miller:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 North Car. NCAA 19 NCA 89.0 64 5 48 88 .127 .734 .021 2.93
2005 North Car. NCAA 20 NCA 96.2 78 4 52 104 .124 .717 .015 2.98
2006 North Car. NCAA 21 NCA 123.1 100 4 40 133 .078 .717 .012 2.48
2006 Lakeland FSL 21 Det A+ 5.0 2 0 1 9 .056 .471 .000 0.00
2006 Detroit MLB 21 Det MLB 10.1 8 0 10 6 .204 .846 .000 6.10
andrew miller is highly-touted. he's left-handed, which is good; he throws hard, and he limits home runs. all these things are good. but his strikeout rates are ordinary. i mean, they're good, but look at justin verlander. contact rates of .675 .686, and .629 in college. granted, old dominion is not the program north carolina is, but did you look at justin verlander?
granted, there aren't gonna be too many justin verlanders in the world, but that's just it: there aren't gonna be too many justin verlanders.
Career Batting Statistics for Brent Clevlen:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 GCL Tigers GCL 18 Det Rk 105 8 24 3 5 .071 .771 .099 .330
2003 West Mich Midw 19 Det A 484 76 111 12 29 .136 .771 .110 .260
2004 Lakeland FSL 20 Det A+ 425 48 127 6 29 .101 .701 .117 .224
2005 Lakeland FSL 21 Det A+ 496 70 118 18 32 .124 .762 .132 .302
2006 Erie East 22 Det AA 400 50 138 11 17 .111 .655 .107 .230
2006 Detroit MLB 22 Det MLB 39 2 15 3 3 .049 .615 .250 .282
i should add at this point that andrew miller is gonna make it. brent clevlen, however, is not. that's great that he hit those home runs last year, but he also struck out every other time. literally almost. 15 strikeouts in 39 at-bats is not good. but what did he do in the minors? oh, he struck out 138 times in 400 at-bats. maybe i'm missing something. i mean, i'm not a scout. but this tends to be the type of thing the scouts don't see. a bat that just misses too much to make it.
Career Pitching Statistics for Jair Jurrjens:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 GCL Tigers GCL 17 Det Rk 28.0 33 3 3 20 .025 .829 .031 3.21
2004 GCL Tigers GCL 18 Det Rk 39.2 25 2 10 39 .065 .729 .019 2.27
2004 Oneonta NYPL 18 Det A- 39.0 50 0 10 31 .056 .814 .000 5.31
2005 West Mich Midw 19 Det A 142.2 132 5 36 108 .060 .807 .011 3.41
2006 Lakeland FSL 20 Det A+ 73.2 53 4 10 59 .035 .785 .019 2.08
2006 Erie East 20 Det AA 67.0 71 7 21 53 .072 .805 .032 3.36
jair jurrjens has very good control, and has shown the ability to limit home runs. he doesn't seem to have the stuff to miss bats, but so far he has had good results. and he's young.
Career Pitching Statistics for Jordan Tata:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 Sam Houstn NCAA 20 NCA 77.0 92 6 37 40 .103 .876 .021 5.38
2003 Sam Houstn NCAA 21 NCA 75.1 93 4 32 62 .091 .806 .016 5.62
2003 Oneonta NYPL 21 Det A- 73.1 64 1 20 60 .066 .789 .004 2.58
2004 West Mich Midw 22 Det A 166.1 167 7 68 116 .093 .826 .013 3.35
2005 Lakeland FSL 23 Det A+ 155.0 138 12 41 134 .064 .778 .026 2.79
2006 Toledo IL 24 Det AAA 122.0 117 11 49 86 .092 .822 .028 3.84
2006 Detroit MLB 24 Det MLB 14.2 14 1 7 6 .108 .897 .019 6.14
jordan tata does not limit contact. his contact percentages of .822, .778, and . 826 over the past three years, while being old for his level, are not promising. he also does not limit home runs. HRP's of .028 and .026 would be fine if he had strengths in other areas, but he doesn't. his control isn't even good. it's ok, but not good.
there seems to be some indication that he knows how to work through a lineup. if that's the case, there's enough talent to pitch in the bigs. but we're not in the business of predicting guys who can just barely make it. we're looking for stars. i'm happy for jordan that he has a skill he can support himself with. good luck, jordan!
Career Pitching Statistics for Eulogio De La Cruz:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 GCL Tigers GCL 18 Det Rk 37.2 40 0 21 46 .121 .699 .000 2.63
2002 Oneonta NYPL 18 Det A- 2.1 7 0 4 4 .222 .714 .000 23.14
2003 GCL Tigers GCL 19 Det Rk 23.0 17 0 13 30 .131 .651 .000 2.74
2003 Oneonta NYPL 19 Det A- 3.1 6 0 1 4 .059 .750 .000 10.80
2004 West Mich Midw 20 Det A 54.0 51 2 33 44 .134 .793 .012 3.83
2005 Lakeland FSL 21 Det A+ 95.2 66 5 36 97 .093 .725 .020 3.39
2005 Erie East 21 Det AA 1.2 2 0 4 0 .364 1.00 .000 16.20
2006 Erie East 22 Det AA 105.0 103 3 45 87 .097 .792 .009 3.43
2006 Toledo IL 22 Det AAA 2.1 4 1 2 3 .154 .727 .125 11.57
eulogio seems to really limit home runs. that's a little strange for a fastball guy, but apparently he has a good curveball too. his walk percentages and contact percentages don't indicate success in the majors, but if he can limit home runs, he has a place there.
Career Batting Statistics for Gorkys Hernandez:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2006 GCL Tigers GCL 18 Det Rk 206 10 27 5 11 .046 .869 .089 .327
gorkys hernandez has talent. he makes contact, and it seems he will hit for power. a patient approach, though, is another thing altogether. he's got to love the game, and love himself, enough to realize that success takes patience.
Career Pitching Statistics for Dallas Trahern:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 GCL Tigers GCL 18 Det Rk 30.2 22 1 7 24 .058 .789 .011 0.59
2005 West Mich Midw 19 Det A 156.0 158 9 50 66 .074 .895 .016 3.58
2006 Lakeland FSL 20 Det A+ 144.2 129 9 41 86 .068 .847 .019 3.30
dallas trahern has good control and good home run limitation. but he doesn't have the stuff to make it.
Career Batting Statistics for Jeff Larish:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 Arizona St NCAA 19 NCA 130 29 19 3 7 .182 .854 .090 .328
2003 Arizona St NCAA 20 NCA 240 84 42 18 20 .259 .825 .192 .372
2004 Arizona St NCAA 21 NCA 239 36 50 7 17 .131 .791 .127 .308
2005 Arizona St NCAA 22 NCA 253 64 60 23 19 .202 .763 .218 .324
2005 GCL Tigers GCL 22 Det Rk 19 5 5 0 1 .208 .737 .071 .222
2005 Oneonta NYPL 22 Det A- 64 15 6 6 3 .190 .906 .155 .297
2006 Lakeland FSL 23 Det A+ 461 91 101 18 36 .165 .781 .150 .258
jeff larish had a very encouraging performance in the florida state league. a walk percentage of .165 is fantastic, and a power percentage of .150 is also very good. the contact percentage of .781 shows progress. jeff is obviously a power-oriented hitter, and he may be able to keep the contact skills high enough to move up every year.
Career Batting Statistics for Scott Sizemore:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2004 VA Commonw NCAA 19 NCA 205 18 27 1 14 .081 .868 .084 .332
2005 VA Commonw NCAA 20 NCA 219 44 23 12 27 .167 .895 .199 .364
2006 VA Commonw NCAA 21 NCA 238 32 26 7 22 .119 .891 .137 .300
2006 Oneonta NYPL 21 Det A- 296 34 47 3 19 .103 .841 .088 .327
scott sizemore is a middle infielder with good contact and good strike zone judgement. that's a major-leaguer right there. if he adds power he's an occasional all-star. this is the kind of player that could really go places.
the reason he's not a bigger prospect is there are questions about his defense. to avoid being a tweener, scott will have to either improve his defense, or improve his hitting so much it doesn't matter.
in his baseball prospectus list, kevin goldstein left off jeff larish and dallas trahern. instead, he included ronnie bourquin and edward campusano.
Career Batting Statistics for Ronnie Bourquin:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2004 Ohio State NCAA 19 NCA 129 21 21 5 8 .140 .837 .120 .333
2005 Ohio State NCAA 20 NCA 185 32 25 2 8 .147 .865 .063 .268
2006 Ohio State NCAA 21 NCA 220 34 24 8 17 .134 .891 .128 .416
2006 Oneonta NYPL 21 Det A- 252 52 46 2 14 .171 .817 .078 .266
ronnie bourquin has very good walk percentages and good contact ability. he's gonna have to develop more power if he wants to make it.
Career Pitching Statistics for Edward Campusano:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 Az Cubs Ariz 21 Chc Rk 22.0 30 0 9 14 .086 .854 .000 4.91
2004 Boise Nwes 22 Chc A- 34.0 37 5 15 24 .097 .827 .043 5.29
2004 Lansing Midw 22 Chc A 17.0 19 3 7 17 .091 .757 .057 4.76
2005 Az Cubs Ariz 23 Chc Rk 2.0 1 0 0 2 .000 .714 .000 0.00
2005 Peoria Midw 23 Chc A 27.1 25 0 14 23 .116 .785 .000 2.63
2006 Peoria Midw 24 Chc A 29.2 16 0 9 47 .079 .552 .000 1.21
2006 W. Tenn Sou 24 Chc AA 25.2 22 2 8 34 .075 .657 .031 1.75
wow. edward campusano had a CON of .552 in middle-a last year, then went straight to double-a and had no adjustment problems, with a contact percentage of .657. it appears that he's had some injury problems in his career, because there aren't a lot of innings pitched. it also appears he got a lot better at some point. that's very interesting. what's also interesting is he's got a real chance to make it, helped not a little by the fact that he's a lefty.
if i were doing this list i would have left off clevlen and trahern, and included the guys goldstein put on. there's a lot of talent here though. it looks like i judged dombrowski a year too early. in my defense, though, i mentioned the man's record of success, and i limited my comments to the prospects. also, i was in a very goofy mood.
my list would probably be something like:
1. maybin
2. miller
3. eulogio
4. jurrjens
5. sizemore
6. gorkys
7. campusano
8. larish
9. bourquin
10. tata
maybe switch the last two. the thing is tata has a better chance of making it than a lot of guys on this list. but the other guys have a better chance of being stars.
we can fix the grammar later. i'd like to continue this post by talking about the guys who made the list last year, but didn't this year (and didn't make the bigs either).
Career Batting Statistics for Wilkin Ramirez:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2003 GCL Tigers GCL 17 Det Rk 201 14 51 5 13 .065 .746 .120 .275
2005 West Mich Midw 19 Det A 498 42 143 16 23 .078 .713 .110 .262
2006 Lakeland FSL 20 Det A+ 251 12 69 8 14 .046 .725 .121 .225
wilkin ramirez has talent. i believe that. but he's got to stop swinging at everything. so many kids just can't make that change. you've got to want to succeed. you've got to want it really bad.
Career Pitching Statistics for Humberto Sanchez:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 Oneonta NYPL 19 Det A- 32.1 29 1 21 26 .143 .794 .010 3.62
2003 West Mich Midw 20 Det A 116.0 107 3 78 96 .146 .789 .008 4.42
2004 Lakeland FSL 21 Det A+ 105.1 103 9 51 115 .109 .726 .030 5.21
2004 Erie East 21 Det AA 12.2 10 1 6 15 .111 .688 .030 2.13
2005 Erie East 22 Det AA 64.2 72 10 27 65 .092 .756 .050 5.57
2006 Erie East 23 Det AA 71.2 47 2 27 86 .093 .672 .011 1.76
2006 Toledo IL 23 Det AAA 51.1 50 2 20 43 .089 .789 .012 3.86
humberto sanchez is no longer a tiger. he's a yankee. but we already did the yankees so we'll talk about him here. he's one of the guys who was traded for gary sheffield. the others are listed below.
what did the yankees get for sheffield? well, the most important thing they got is payroll relief. but this guy sanchez has some stuff. his contact percentage of .672 in double-a is a good sign. but that's the only really good year in the bunch. and it was only half a year. when he was moved up to triple-a, he was ordinary. but he did show some home run limitation. in all, the yankees got someone who could be useful, but not much more. the tigers didn't lose anything because they already had a million arms.
Career Batting Statistics for Tony Giarratano:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2001 Tulane NCAA 18 NCA 265 41 37 3 14 .134 .860 .075 .352
2002 Tulane NCAA 19 NCA 173 22 27 2 8 .113 .844 .068 .238
2003 Tulane NCAA 20 NCA 275 27 33 8 20 .089 .880 .116 .336
2003 Oneonta NYPL 20 Det A- 192 14 22 3 15 .068 .885 .106 .328
2004 West Mich Midw 21 Det A 166 27 22 1 7 .140 .867 .056 .285
2004 Lakeland FSL 21 Det A+ 204 17 38 5 11 .077 .814 .096 .376
2005 Erie East 22 Det AA 349 37 75 3 25 .096 .785 .102 .266
2005 Detroit MLB 22 Det MLB 42 5 7 1 0 .106 .833 .029 .143
2006 Erie East 23 Det AA 270 24 45 0 24 .082 .833 .107 .283
tony giarratano is still a tiger (as far as i know!) he fell off the list this year, but he really improved his skills. his contact percentage improved from .785 to .833. that's a really big jump, and a crucial one. unfortunately, he still doesn't have any power. and he missed playing time. i don't know if he was injured, or what.
he's a switch-hitter. if he improved his patience, he could use his speed and left-handedness to get on base. or he could get strong. but something has to happen.
according to rotoworld, he tore his acl.
Career Pitching Statistics for Kevin Whelan:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 Texas AM NCAA 20 NCA 8.2 7 0 4 11 .108 .667 .000 4.15
2005 Texas AM NCAA 21 NCA 31.0 21 1 20 40 .149 .649 .014 2.90
2005 Oneonta NYPL 21 Det A- 12.0 2 1 6 19 .136 .500 .053 2.25
2005 West Mich Midw 21 Det A 12.1 4 0 2 22 .047 .463 .000 0.73
2006 Lakeland FSL 22 Det A+ 54.0 33 1 29 69 .129 .646 .008 2.67
kevin whelan had a lot of strikeouts in 2006. he has a lot of strikeouts everywhere. the problem is the walks. he's the second guy in the trade for sheffield. as with sanchez, he could be useful.
the third guy in the trade is anthony claggett.
Career Pitching Statistics for Anthony Claggett:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2005 CalRivrsd NCAA 21 NCA 24.2 29 1 7 27 .064 .738 .013 4.01
2005 Oneonta NYPL 21 Det A- 22.1 23 1 12 25 .118 .722 .015 4.03
2006 West Mich Midw 22 Det A 59.1 35 0 20 58 .086 .728 .000 0.91
2006 Toledo IL 22 Det AAA 1.0 1 0 1 2 .200 .500 .000 0.00
anthony claggett is a more balanced pitcher than the other guys. he had decent contact rates, and decent control last year in middle-a. but he was old for that level. he's a low-grade prospect, but you never know.
the tigers system really came together last year. they graduated some guys who really helped out. they added more talent, and developed the talent they have to a strong level. and they were able to make a trade to improve their lineup. unfortunately for them, there are two other teams in that division who have very strong systems: the indians and the twins. we're going to see some good battles in the coming years.
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