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Tuesday, January 23, 2007
top prospects: red sox
yesterday was the orioles. today is the red sox.
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, of
2. Clay Buchholz, rhp
3. Michael Bowden, rhp
4. Daniel Bard, rhp
5. Lars Anderson, 1b
6. Dustin Pedroia, ss
7. Bryce Cox, rhp
8. Craig Hansen, rhp
9. Kris Johnson, lhp
10. Jason Place, of
last year's list had jacoby ellsbury at #6, clay buchholz at #10, dustin pedroia at #5, and craig hansen at #4. it also had andy marte, jon lester, and jonathan papelbon, who are quality. marte was an indian, though.
Career Batting Statistics for Jacoby Ellsbury:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2003 Oregon St NCAA 19 NCA 209 37 33 7 13 .150 .842 .114 .330
2004 Oregon St NCAA 20 NCA 196 41 17 3 10 .173 .913 .073 .352
2005 Oregon St NCAA 21 NCA 245 44 21 6 22 .152 .914 .125 .406
2005 Lowell NYPL 21 Bos A- 140 25 20 1 8 .152 .857 .075 .317
2006 Wilmington Caro 22 Bos A+ 245 32 28 4 12 .116 .886 .074 .299
2006 Portland East 22 Bos AA 199 26 25 3 13 .116 .874 .092 .308
jacoby ellsbury makes good contact (anything over .800 is good) and has good patience (over .100 is good, especially for that contact). his power is not that great, but it could develop. what if it doesn't? well, he's fast, he's left-handed, and he plays great defense. verdict: he's gonna make it.
Career Pitching Statistics for Clay Buchholz:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2005 Lowell NYPL 21 Bos A- 41.1 34 2 9 45 .054 .715 .018 2.61
2006 Greenville SAL 22 Bos A 103.0 78 10 29 117 .070 .698 .037 2.62
2006 Wilmington Caro 22 Bos A+ 16.0 10 0 4 23 .065 .603 .000 1.13
buchholz followed a quality debut with a very strong 2006. 140 strikeouts in 119 innings, with 33 walks and 88 hits (!) is a very good performance. it remains to be seen whether he can do it in the upper levels, but i'm gonna go out on a limb and say he can.
Career Pitching Statistics for Michael Bowden:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2005 GCL Redsox GCL 18 Bos Rk 6.0 4 0 4 10 .154 .545 .000 0.00
2006 Greenville SAL 19 Bos A 107.2 91 9 31 118 .070 .715 .030 3.51
2006 Wilmington Caro 19 Bos A+ 5.0 9 0 1 3 .040 .875 .000 9.00
michael bowden was a 2005 draftee. he spent the 2006 season tearing up the sally league. he should progress quickly. i think he's better than buchholz. or will be. that's a pretty mean little staff they had down there in greenville.
Career Pitching Statistics for Daniel Bard:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 North Car. NCAA 19 NCA 95.0 94 7 31 68 .076 .821 .023 3.88
2005 North Car. NCAA 20 NCA 89.2 73 8 43 77 .112 .775 .030 4.22
2006 North Car. NCAA 21 NCA 101.1 92 4 37 94 .085 .763 .013 3.64
daniel bard was just drafted. his college numbers are not that impressive, except for his home run rates. other than that, he has ordinary control (.085 wal) and ordinary strikeouts (.763 con). .013 hrp is really good though, with those aluminum bats.
the next guy on the list is lars anderson. we don't have any data on him, because he just got out of high school. baseball america likes his power.
Career Batting Statistics for Dustin Pedroia:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 Arizona St NCAA 19 NCA 237 29 19 1 15 .109 .920 .073 .347
2003 Arizona St NCAA 20 NCA 301 42 13 4 37 .122 .957 .142 .404
2004 Arizona St NCAA 21 NCA 246 55 15 9 25 .183 .939 .147 .393
2004 Augusta SAL 21 Bos A 50 7 3 1 5 .123 .940 .128 .400
2004 Sarasota FSL 21 Bos A+ 110 17 4 2 11 .134 .964 .123 .336
2005 Portland East 22 Bos AA 258 38 26 8 21 .128 .899 .125 .324
2005 Pawtucket IL 22 Bos AAA 206 33 17 5 10 .138 .917 .079 .255
2006 Pawtucket IL 23 Bos AAA 427 57 27 5 33 .118 .937 .095 .305
2006 Boston MLB 23 Bos MLB 89 8 7 2 4 .082 .921 .073 .191
i am really high on dustin pedroia. he has fantastic strike zone judgement, and excellent contact. those are the skills that imply success. also, he's a middle infielder. he may never hit the long ball, but he's going to be very good for a long time.
Career Pitching Statistics for Bryce Cox:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2005 Rice NCAA 21 NCA 18.2 12 3 14 24 .171 .647 .068 3.86
2006 Rice NCAA 22 NCA 51.2 41 1 25 62 .113 .684 .007 3.48
2006 Lowell NYPL 22 Bos A- 5.2 6 0 2 3 .080 .870 .000 1.59
2006 Wilmington Caro 22 Bos A+ 24.1 14 0 9 25 .094 .713 .000 0.74
bryce cox is another 2006 draftee. he's a reliever with good strikeout rates (.684 con at rice) but questionable control (.113 wal that same year). he does avoid the long ball.
Career Pitching Statistics for Craig Hansen:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 St. Johns NCAA 19 NCA 39.2 51 1 21 41 .110 .759 .008 7.03
2004 St. Johns NCAA 20 NCA 15.1 6 2 8 24 .133 .538 .071 3.52
2005 St. Johns NCAA 21 NCA 64.1 38 1 20 85 .080 .632 .007 1.68
2005 GCL Redsox GCL 21 Bos Rk 3.0 2 0 0 4 .000 .636 .000 0.00
2005 Portland East 21 Bos AA 9.2 9 0 1 10 .026 .737 .000 0.00
2005 Boston MLB 21 Bos MLB 3.0 6 1 1 3 .063 .800 .083 6.00
2006 Portland East 22 Bos AA 11.0 4 0 4 12 .098 .676 .000 0.82
2006 Pawtucket IL 22 Bos AAA 36.0 31 0 19 26 .120 .813 .000 2.75
2006 Boston MLB 22 Bos MLB 38.0 46 5 15 30 .086 .813 .038 6.63
craig hansen pitched 38 games in the major leagues at age 22, and somehow got downgraded as a prospect. i don't know how that happens. if you ask me, he's still got great talent. .632 con in 64 innings at st johns. let's give him a little time.
Career Pitching Statistics for Kris Johnson:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 Wichita St NCAA 0 NCA 71.2 54 1 28 66 .094 .755 .005 2.01
2006 Wichita St NCAA 0 NCA 53.2 57 1 21 45 .088 .794 .006 4.86
2006 Lowell NYPL 0 Bos A- 30.2 25 0 7 27 .056 .769 .000 0.88
the red sox seem to like home run limitation in pitchers. can't blame them. kris johnson showed good control (.056 wal, .000 hrp) in his debut. let's see what else he does.
Career Batting Statistics for Jason Place:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2006 GCL Redsox GCL 18 Bos Rk 114 18 35 4 4 .136 .693 .101 .292
jason place just started playing. we have no idea where he's going to be.
and that's the red sox. after all the players that moved up last year, i was prepared to give this year's class a low rating. but i can't do that. there's too much talent here. the red sox are a talent pipeline. the yankees bout to get eclipsed.
i know, i say that every year.
Comments:
reading kevin goldstein's report (it's a pay article on baseball prospectus), i came across a kid named justin masterson. in 31 innings at lowell, he struck out 33 and walked 2, with no home runs (20 hits). he's a sinkerballer. with definite possibilities.
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