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Friday, January 26, 2007
top prospects: devil rays
from the evil empire to the tragic empire.
they're not really an empire. more of a fiefdom.
1. Delmon Young, of
2. Evan Longoria, 3b
3. Reid Brignac, ss
4. Jeff Niemann, rhp
5. Jacob McGee, lhp
6. Elijah Dukes, of
7. Wade Davis, rhp
8. Matt Walker, rhp
9. Jeremy Hellickson, rhp
10. Joel Guzman, of/1b/3b
i've been optimistic about the devil rays in the past, but i've finally realized that they're crappy. the problem is they're too small-time. they're thinking "how can we compete with these big-market clubs" instead of "how can we win a championship".
they've got a lot of good young players, but they don't have winners. delmon young had 126 at-bats last year, and only once did he take four balls. the whole team is like that. carl crawford, rocco baldelli, jorge cantu. they want to swing, and hit. they don't want to win.
this is an incredibly talented lineup. they can score on any pitcher. but they can't beat bad pitching, because they don't take walks. and they don't have the pitching themselves to hold the other guys down.
i haven't even talked about the pitching. it's terrible. but that's the easy problem: get good pitching. the hard problem is teaching your players to win.
Career Batting Statistics for Delmon Young:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2004 Charlstsc SAL 18 Tb A 519 59 120 25 31 .102 .769 .140 .320
2005 Montgomery Sou 19 Tb AA 338 32 66 20 17 .086 .805 .136 .336
2005 Durham IL 19 Tb AAA 228 6 33 6 16 .026 .855 .113 .285
2006 Durham IL 20 Tb AAA 352 18 65 8 26 .049 .815 .118 .316
2006 Tampa Bay MLB 20 Tb MLB 127 4 24 3 10 .031 .811 .126 .317
everyone's number one prospect last year, and probably everyone's number one again this year. he was my number two, and i think he'll be lower this year. he'll probably win rookie of the year. he's obviously talented. he makes contact, and he hits for power. but does he win? my prediction is no. i hope i'm wrong.
Career Batting Statistics for Evan Longoria:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2005 Long Beach NCAA 0 NCA 229 18 41 5 8 .073 .821 .069 .320
2006 Long Beach NCAA 0 NCA 204 46 29 11 15 .184 .858 .149 .353
2006 Hudson Vly NYPL 0 Tb A- 34 5 5 4 2 .128 .853 .207 .424
2006 Visalia Cali 0 Tb A+ 112 15 19 8 8 .118 .830 .172 .327
2006 Montgomery Sou 0 Tb AA 108 1 20 6 5 .009 .815 .125 .267
well this guy, jesus. this guy can hit. good patience, good contact, and good power. maybe he's the winner they need to turn the corner. let's hope that one walk in double-a was an anomaly.
Career Batting Statistics for Reid Brignac:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2004 Princeton App 18 Tb Rk 99 10 10 1 6 .092 .899 .079 .361
2004 Charlstsc SAL 18 Tb A 14 1 2 0 1 .067 .857 .083 .500
2005 SW Mich Midw 19 Tb A 517 44 131 15 31 .078 .747 .119 .264
2006 Visalia Cali 20 Tb A+ 414 39 82 21 29 .086 .802 .151 .326
2006 Montgomery Sou 20 Tb AA 111 10 31 3 8 .083 .721 .138 .300
reid brignac is a talent. he needs some work on his patience and contact, but let's not sweat the small stuff. he's a power-hitting shortstop, and he's young for his level. sweating the small stuff, however, is exactly what he needs to do to improve. good luck, reid!
Career Pitching Statistics for Jeff Niemann:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 Rice NCAA 19 NCA 66.0 64 1 27 53 .093 .798 .005 3.14
2003 Rice NCAA 20 NCA 137.1 96 6 35 156 .064 .693 .017 1.70
2004 Rice NCAA 21 NCA 80.1 59 4 30 94 .091 .687 .019 3.02
2005 Visalia Cali 22 Tb A+ 20.1 12 3 10 28 .120 .616 .067 3.98
2005 Montgomery Sou 22 Tb AA 10.1 7 0 5 14 .116 .632 .000 4.35
2006 Montgomery Sou 23 Tb AA 77.1 56 6 29 84 .091 .708 .029 2.68
finally, we have a pitcher. jeff niemann struck out a lot of players at rice, and he did it some more in the pros. but control is an issue. this is not the guy that's gonna turn the staff around.
Career Pitching Statistics for Jacob McGee:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 Princeton App 18 Tb Rk 56.2 49 5 25 53 .102 .758 .030 3.97
2005 Hudson Vly NYPL 19 Tb A- 76.2 64 4 23 89 .073 .697 .020 3.64
2006 SW Mich Midw 20 Tb A 134.0 103 7 65 171 .114 .661 .021 2.96
wow, that's a lot of strikeouts. i don't know what this guy throws, but it's a lot of something. again, though, the issue is control. a .661 con is nice, but a .114 wal is a problem. major-league hitters will tear that apart.
Career Batting Statistics for Elijah Dukes:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2003 Charlstsc SAL 19 Tb A 386 55 130 7 21 .125 .663 .109 .245
2004 Charlstsc SAL 20 Tb A 164 21 47 2 14 .114 .713 .137 .288
2004 Bkrsfld Cali 20 Tb A+ 212 31 50 8 18 .128 .764 .160 .332
2005 Montgomery Sou 21 Tb AA 449 49 83 18 26 .098 .815 .120 .287
2006 Durham IL 22 Tb AAA 283 51 47 10 20 .153 .834 .127 .293
if this were my team, i'd cut him. this guy is a behavior problem. he's part of the problem, rather than part of the solution. he sure is talented though.
i mean this guy is the complete package. great patience, good contact, good power. he's a good fielder too. the only thing he's missing is attitude. which makes him the complete non-package. i saw him in a game once two years ago. he got thrown out.
Career Pitching Statistics for Wade Davis:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2004 Princeton App 18 Tb Rk 57.2 71 8 19 38 .072 .844 .039 6.09
2005 Hudson Vly NYPL 19 Tb A- 86.0 75 5 23 97 .065 .709 .021 2.72
2006 SW Mich Midw 20 Tb A 146.0 124 5 64 165 .102 .706 .013 3.02
good stuff, bad control. what else is new? he does seem to limit home runs, which is good.
seriously, these numbers are the same as mcgee. they're the same guy. mcgee has a little more strikeout.
Career Pitching Statistics for Matt Walker:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2005 Princeton App 19 Tb Rk 57.2 63 2 22 71 .085 .699 .012 5.31
2005 Hudson Vly NYPL 19 Tb A- 3.1 5 0 4 5 .211 .667 .000 10.80
2006 SW Mich Midw 20 Tb A 82.0 66 5 41 68 .116 .782 .020 3.18
curveballer. curveballers take time. but i don't think he's good enough.
Career Pitching Statistics for Jeremy Hellickson:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2005 Princeton App 18 Tb Rk 6.0 6 1 1 11 .040 .542 .077 6.00
2006 Hudson Vly NYPL 19 Tb A- 77.2 55 3 16 96 .053 .667 .016 2.43
that's good wal, and good con. and a great combination. this kid could turn out to be the best of this group.
Career Batting Statistics for Joel Guzman:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 GCL Ddgers GCL 17 La Rk 33 5 8 0 2 .132 .758 .080 .212
2002 great flls Pio 17 La Rk 151 18 54 3 10 .107 .642 .134 .252
2003 S. Georgia SAL 18 La A 219 9 62 8 13 .039 .717 .134 .235
2003 Vero Beach FSL 18 La A+ 240 11 60 5 14 .044 .750 .106 .246
2004 Vero Beach FSL 19 La A+ 332 23 78 14 30 .065 .765 .173 .307
2004 Jcksnvlle Sou 19 La AA 186 14 44 9 14 .070 .763 .162 .280
2005 Jcksnvlle Sou 20 La AA 449 47 128 16 33 .095 .715 .153 .287
2006 Las Vegas PCL 21 La AAA 321 30 72 11 18 .085 .776 .116 .297
2006 Durham IL 21 Tb AAA 88 4 23 4 5 .043 .739 .138 .193
2006 LA Dodgers MLB 21 La MLB 19 4 2 0 0 .174 .895 .000 .211
i think this ranking is way too low. joel guzman has played above his age for years, and hit for power. all he needs is a little stability, and a little patience. isn't that always the case.
baseball america calls this the best sytem in baseball. and i know what they're saying. there's a lot of talent. kids that can hit, kids that can field, kids that can throw. but they need to develop kids that can win. it won't be the best system, or even a good system, until they do.
Comments:
last year, delmon young was #1, reid brignac was #4, jeff niemann was #2, elijah dukes was #5, wade davis was #6, matt walker was #9. wes bankston was #7, and he had a bad year, but he can still hit. this is not the space to post stats in, but don't be surprised if he makes it.
here are his cube stats. he was hurt last year. he needs to be patient. at the plate. patient at the plate.
sometimes you come up and they throw strikes at you, and you're patient and you strike out. so when you first come up, swing a little. but then get patient.
Post a Commenthere are his cube stats. he was hurt last year. he needs to be patient. at the plate. patient at the plate.
sometimes you come up and they throw strikes at you, and you're patient and you strike out. so when you first come up, swing a little. but then get patient.
