julien's baseball blog

Some moves are slightly good. Some moves are slightly bad. I tell you about them.
Sunday, May 28, 2006
 
sunday sunday sunday
this gamblin thing:


braves (smoltz) at cubs (ryu): risking 40.20 to win 20.00


seems pretty clear. i think the braves win more than 2 out of 3.


cardinals (mulder) at padres (peavy): risking 20.00 to win 21.00


cardinals can hit peavy. and mulder can shut down that lineup.


mariners/twins under 8: risking 20.00 to win 20.60


johan should shut them down. and the twins lineup can't score that many on anybody. it's pineiro this time.


orioles (benson) at angels (escobar): risking 20.00 to win 28.80


this was a bad bet. i made it before i knew gibbons was out. benson's a bad pitcher against a bad lineup. so that part's good.


white sox/blue jays over 10.5: risking 21.00 to win 20.00


power hitters against soft tossers (garland and taubenheim).


dodgers (seo) at nationals (ortiz): risking 19.20 to win 15.00


i bet this line last night. it's a pretty clear case of a good lineup against a bad lineup. then the line moved and i bet it again:


dodgers (seo) at nationals (ortiz): risking 23.80 to win 20.00


that nationals lineup is bad.


mets (hernandez) at marlins (nolasco): risking 14.80 to win 10.00
indians/tigers over 9.5: risking 17.55 to win 15.00
astros/pirates over 9.5: risking 15.00 to win 15.60


victor martinez isn't playing. so that sucks. astros kill lefties.


brewers (eveland) at phillies (madson): risking 20.00 to win 26.60


eveland's a lefty strikeout pitcher. should do well against the phillies. reasonably well. and we're hoping the brewers bomb madson.


rockies/giants over 8.5: risking 20.00 to win 20.20


i just did this a minute ago. byung-hyung kim is better in colorado than san fransisco. and he'll have trouble against a contact lineup. and the rockies can score on wright. maybe. i don't know. it's not such a good bet.


devil rays/red sox over 10.5: risking 10.00 to win 11.60


i got a little carried away.


d-backs/reds over 9.5: risking 17.40 to win 15.00


i keep doing this.


brewers (eveland) at phillies (madson): risking 10.00 to win 14.10


the line moved.


yankees (wright) v. royals (hernandez): risking 33.00 to win 10.00


do the yankees win better than 10 out of 13? i don't know.

i should exercise a little more restraint.
Saturday, May 27, 2006
 
you bet
bets for today:


cardinals (ponson) at padres (park): risking 23.60 to win 20.00
rangers (loe) v. athletics (zito): risking 15.60 to win 15.00
d-backs/reds over 10: risking 31.00 to win 30.70
d-rays/red sox over 9.5: risking 22.20 to win 20.00
indians/tigers over 9.5: risking 50.00 to win 53.40
mets (glavine) at marlins (willis): risking 41.90 to win 30.00
braves (ramirez) at cubs (marshall): risking 11.70 to win 10.00
white sox/blue jays over 9.5: risking 30.00 to win 32.25
dodgers (lowe) at nationals (hill): risking 53.65 to win 35.00
orioles (bedard) at angels (weaver): risking 10.00 to win 12.10


some of the bets were made multiple times as the lines moved: mets, dodgers, all the overs except d-rays/red sox. the mets bet was bad because david wright probably won't play.
Friday, May 26, 2006
 
train keep a rollin
bets for today:


braves (hudson) at cubs (zambrano): risking 15.60 to win 15.00
dodgers (tomko) at nationals (hernandez): risking 16.20 to win 15.00
brewers (capuano) at phillies (lidle): risking 22.60 to win 20.00
pirates (snell) v. astros (buchholz): risking 20.00 to win 24.60
diamondbacks (webb) at reds (milton): risking 34.80 to win 25.00
mets (martinez) at marlins (johnson): risking 21.60 to win 10.00
cardinals (suppan) at padres (hensley): risking 18.60 to win 15.00
giants (schmidt) v. rockies (francis): risking 30.80 to win 20.00
devil rays (kazmir) at red sox (wells): risking 10.00 to win 10.00
indians (westbrook) at tigers (robertson): risking 20.00 to win 25.40
blue jays (lilly) v. white sox (garcia): risking 15.00 to win 16.50
rangers (koronka) v. athletics (blanton): risking 13.00 to win 10.00
twins (liriano) v. mariners (hernandez): risking 15.90 to win 15.00
orioles (chen) at angels (gregg): risking 10.00 to win 12.70
rockies/giants under 7.5: risking 10.50 to win 10.00
d-rays/red sox under 9.5: risking 20.00 to win 20.60
indians/tigers over 9.5: risking 10.10 to win 10.00
mariners/twins under 9: risking 11.80 to win 10.00


i don't know what to tell you. a lot of stuff looked good today. braves: hudson's gonna carve up that lineup. i'd bet the under, too, if there was one. dodgers: livan is good and all, but the nationals lineup isn't. and the dodgers have been killin. tomko's home/road splits are a bit of a worry, though. brewers: capuano kills lefties, such as bobby abreu and ryan howard, and their power lineup should handle lidle. pirates: i originally made this bet because i thought the pirates power bats would nail taylor buchholz, but on further investigation he's good against the power. at first i bet small, then when berkman's injury came through i bet again. i'm not sure i like it though. maybe i should take the under. ok i did. i'm risking 10.50 to win 10.00 on under 9 runs.

diamonbacks at reds: i got in 15.00 at -140, then i bet ten more at -138. i can't believe this line is so low. mets at marlins. pedro on the mound, they win more than 2 out of 3. johnson has been hit lucky. cardinals-padres: bad pitcher against bad lineup, value for pitcher. bad pitcher against good lineup, value for lineup. giants-rockies: rockies on the road. devil rays at red sox: good pitcher against good lineup. bet on the pitcher. indians at tigers. indians lineup beats tigers lineup, both against bad pitchers. also i took the over in this game. i took the under in the giants game, because schmidt can beat rockies, and francis can beat contact hitters. it's a low margin, though.

where was i? d-rays/red sox i took the under because both pitchers are appropriate for their opponents. blue jays-garcia: blue jays kill lefties. also white sox not as good against lefties. rangers-a's lefty good against a's, blanton bad in that park. liriano v. felix: liriano's a motherfucker. also i took the under. i should have just took the under. finally, we have the orioles at the angels. chen is a bad pitcher against a bad lineup. that's one for the pitcher. also he's a lefty who'll do well against the angels contact-hitting lineup. at least he has a chance to do well. and gregg is a righty and the orioles kill righties.

altogether i'm risking 316.50.
Thursday, May 25, 2006
 
here we go again
the cubs bet and the red sox bet were bad. cubs because the cubs offense sucks. red sox because of gary sheffield. here are today's picks:


astros (pettitte) at nationals (armas): risking 22.00 to win 20.00
phillies (myers) at mets (gonzalez): risking 28.40 to win 20.00
orioles (lopez) at mariners (meche): risking 10.00 to win 13.50


astros because they have a better lineup and a better pitcher. and the nationals best hitter is a lefty, as is pettitte. phillies because a good pitcher against a good offense is maximum value, as is a good offense against a bad pitcher. orioles because they kill righties. altogether i'm risking 60.40.
Wednesday, May 24, 2006
 
more of the gamble
these are the bets i have for today:


cubs (maddux) at marlins (moehler): risking 12.60 to win 10.00
astros (oswalt) at nationals (o'connor): risking 28.40 to win 20.00
braves (thompson) at padres (young): risking 20.00 to win 21.80
indians (sabathia) at twins (radke): risking 15.60 to win 10.00
red sox (clement) v. yankees (johnson): risking 12.60 to win 10.00
dodgers (sele) v. rockies (cook): risking 12.60 to win 10.00
blue jays (towers) v. devil rays (fossum): risking 16.60 to win 10.00


the two i feel most confident of, obviously, are the astros and braves. i can't believe the braves were dogs the whole series. the red sox bet and the cubs bet, i think, are weak. the cubs just can't score runs. and clement could be bad. the dodgers bet ain't great either, but rockies in los angeles . . . you just gotta go for it.

blue jays devil rays should be a slugfest. big advantage for the jays. the odds are steep though, which makes this the fourth-best bet. indians powerful lineup should bash radke, who is vulnerable to the long ball. and c.c. sabathia should be effective against the twins weak/finesse lineup. actually this is a very good bet. maybe i'll double it.

the price came down. i bet it again. i'm now risking 31.00 to win 20.00.

altogether i'm risking 133.80.

the cardinals with chris carpenter is a good matchup against the giants, but noah lowry is good too so that mitigates it. the diamondbacks should have no trouble with duke, but the pirates will similarly beat up batista. so neither of those bets are worth it.
Tuesday, May 23, 2006
 
put your money where your mouth is
i have placed my first baseball bets. i got an account on pinnaclesports.com, and after finally getting the money in, i placed the following bets (for today's games):


marlins (olsen) v. cubs (wood): risking 10.00 to win 11.30
mets (trachsel) v. phillies (floyd): risking 13.90 to win 10.00
braves (sosa) at padres (thompson): risking 10.00 to win 10.20
dodgers (penny) v. rockies (jennings): risking 15.10 to win 10.00
cardinals (marquis) at giants (morris): risking 11.10 to win 10.00
athletics (saarloos) at white sox (vazquez): risking 10.00 to win 15.50
angels (lackey) at rangers (padilla): risking 10.00 to win 10.40
twins (santana) v. indians (lee): risking 16.80 to win 10.00


i'm pretty excited. i probably placed too many bets, but i'm having fun. the bets are small. i wanna get some experience.

we'll see where this goes, but i'm convinced my methods can be used for gambling. other theorists do not make this claim. they specifically warn against it. i've always wondered about that. why can't your methods be used for gambling? what's wrong with them?

i don't know. actually i do know. but that's not the scope of this article. the scope of this article is to throw down the gauntlet. is your system good enough to win? let's see what you can do.
Monday, May 01, 2006
 
the minor leagues
did you know there was a fernando valenzuela jr? it's true. he's a first baseman for the mobile baybears. he's had a bad start, with only 2 extra-base hits in 57 at-bats. what are his chances for improvement?


Career Batting Statistics for Fernando Valenzuela Jr.:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2003 UNLV NCAA 21 0 NCA 250 59 24 14 20 .191 .904 .150 .337
2003 Eugene Nwes 21 Sd A- 264 53 47 5 11 .167 .822 .074 .248
2004 Fort Wayne Midw 22 Sd A 509 67 63 11 25 .116 .876 .081 .295
2005 Lake Elsinor Cali 23 Sd A+ 535 68 84 12 32 .113 .843 .098 .296


well, he went to unlv, where he hit for patience, contact, and power. judging from the fact that it's in a desert, it's probably a hitter's park. but he's had patience and contact at every level as he's moved up.

the thing he hasn't had is power. he's had a little, but not a lot. luckily for him, power is the thing that almost everybody gets as they move into their middle twenties.

so he's all set then, right? he doesn't have any weaknesses, but he doesn't have any strengths either. his patience and contact are decent, but neither are stellar. and though he figures to develop power, he probably won't develop enough to be above replacement level.

that's what we're looking at here. a replacement-level first baseman. if those numbers were at higher levels, things would be better. he's a little old as prospects go. which makes him a longshot.

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