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Friday, May 26, 2006
train keep a rollin
bets for today:

braves (hudson) at cubs (zambrano): risking 15.60 to win 15.00
dodgers (tomko) at nationals (hernandez): risking 16.20 to win 15.00
brewers (capuano) at phillies (lidle): risking 22.60 to win 20.00
pirates (snell) v. astros (buchholz): risking 20.00 to win 24.60
diamondbacks (webb) at reds (milton): risking 34.80 to win 25.00
mets (martinez) at marlins (johnson): risking 21.60 to win 10.00
cardinals (suppan) at padres (hensley): risking 18.60 to win 15.00
giants (schmidt) v. rockies (francis): risking 30.80 to win 20.00
devil rays (kazmir) at red sox (wells): risking 10.00 to win 10.00
indians (westbrook) at tigers (robertson): risking 20.00 to win 25.40
blue jays (lilly) v. white sox (garcia): risking 15.00 to win 16.50
rangers (koronka) v. athletics (blanton): risking 13.00 to win 10.00
twins (liriano) v. mariners (hernandez): risking 15.90 to win 15.00
orioles (chen) at angels (gregg): risking 10.00 to win 12.70
rockies/giants under 7.5: risking 10.50 to win 10.00
d-rays/red sox under 9.5: risking 20.00 to win 20.60
indians/tigers over 9.5: risking 10.10 to win 10.00
mariners/twins under 9: risking 11.80 to win 10.00

i don't know what to tell you. a lot of stuff looked good today. braves: hudson's gonna carve up that lineup. i'd bet the under, too, if there was one. dodgers: livan is good and all, but the nationals lineup isn't. and the dodgers have been killin. tomko's home/road splits are a bit of a worry, though. brewers: capuano kills lefties, such as bobby abreu and ryan howard, and their power lineup should handle lidle. pirates: i originally made this bet because i thought the pirates power bats would nail taylor buchholz, but on further investigation he's good against the power. at first i bet small, then when berkman's injury came through i bet again. i'm not sure i like it though. maybe i should take the under. ok i did. i'm risking 10.50 to win 10.00 on under 9 runs.

diamonbacks at reds: i got in 15.00 at -140, then i bet ten more at -138. i can't believe this line is so low. mets at marlins. pedro on the mound, they win more than 2 out of 3. johnson has been hit lucky. cardinals-padres: bad pitcher against bad lineup, value for pitcher. bad pitcher against good lineup, value for lineup. giants-rockies: rockies on the road. devil rays at red sox: good pitcher against good lineup. bet on the pitcher. indians at tigers. indians lineup beats tigers lineup, both against bad pitchers. also i took the over in this game. i took the under in the giants game, because schmidt can beat rockies, and francis can beat contact hitters. it's a low margin, though.

where was i? d-rays/red sox i took the under because both pitchers are appropriate for their opponents. blue jays-garcia: blue jays kill lefties. also white sox not as good against lefties. rangers-a's lefty good against a's, blanton bad in that park. liriano v. felix: liriano's a motherfucker. also i took the under. i should have just took the under. finally, we have the orioles at the angels. chen is a bad pitcher against a bad lineup. that's one for the pitcher. also he's a lefty who'll do well against the angels contact-hitting lineup. at least he has a chance to do well. and gregg is a righty and the orioles kill righties.

altogether i'm risking 316.50.
interesting day. some of the lines moved so much i bet the other way. could have done that with braves/cubs, but didn't, and got the win. did it with pirates/astros and twins/mariners and would have won both if i hadn't, but i think it was the right play. small guaranteed profit.

having cancelled the astros/pirates bet, i placed the bet i should have made in the first place, namely astros/pirates under 9 at -105. then i put 20 more on the brewers and 5 more on the orioles. brewers +100 orioles +137.

here are the results:

braves won +15.00
dodgers lost -16.20
brewers won +40.00
pirates won +1.80
d-backs won +25.00
mets lost -21.60
cardinals lost -18.60
giants won +20.00
d-rays lost -10.00
indians lost -20.00
blue jays won +16.50
rangers won +10.00
twins won +2.20
orioles/angels cancelled
rockies/giants over 7.5 -10.50
d-rays/red sox over 9.5 -20.60
indians/tigers over 9.5 +10.00
mariners/twins under 9 +10.00
astros/pirates over 9 -10.50

total: +21.75

season so far: bet 819.20 won 106.85
roi: 13%
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