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Thursday, May 25, 2006
here we go again
the cubs bet and the red sox bet were bad. cubs because the cubs offense sucks. red sox because of gary sheffield. here are today's picks:

astros (pettitte) at nationals (armas): risking 22.00 to win 20.00
phillies (myers) at mets (gonzalez): risking 28.40 to win 20.00
orioles (lopez) at mariners (meche): risking 10.00 to win 13.50

astros because they have a better lineup and a better pitcher. and the nationals best hitter is a lefty, as is pettitte. phillies because a good pitcher against a good offense is maximum value, as is a good offense against a bad pitcher. orioles because they kill righties. altogether i'm risking 60.40.
i also put 5 bucks on the d-rays. to win 14. i figure the contact/speedster part of the lineup can succeed decently against a top pitcher like beckett. the rest of it is just hope.
the line moved to +310, i put ten more bucks on it.
couple more bets. rangers 5 bucks at -170. millwood has been good against the a's. also over 10 runs at +103. halsey will get bashed, but i made that bet before i saw the millwood data, so i'm not so confident about it anymore. and i got the over on the red sox game. 9.5 runs at -126. it's a good hedge against waechter getting bashed. of course there's a real possibility that i'll lose both bets, but i gotta take that risk.
ok the hedge was terrible. it's way more likely that i lose both bets than win both bets. so i either break even or lose, basically. i should have just taken the over.
i no longer think the hedge was that bad. because if d-rays win and the over doesn't come in, i still make a good profit. but anyway it didn't work. here are the results:

astros lost -22.00
phillies won +20.00
orioles won +13.50
d-rays lost -15.00
rangers won +5.00
a's/rangers over 10 +10.30
rays/sox under 9.5 -12.60

total: -0.80

season so far: bet 430.70 won 85.10
roi: 20%
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