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Monday, March 27, 2006
top prospects: mariners
ok this is it. the last one. the last team on the list. the seattle mariners.
1. Jeff Clement, c
2. Adam Jones, of/ss
3. Kenji Johjima, c
4. Chris Snelling, of
5. Matt Tuiasosopo, ss
6. Asdrubal Cabrera, ss/2b
7. Shin-Soo Choo, of
8. Emiliano Fruto, rhp
9. Clint Nageotte, rhp
10. Rob Johnson, c
there's not that much. last year was pretty good, with hernandez reed and betancourt, but they need a lot more young talent to build a contender.
they don't have it.
Career Batting Statistics for Jeff Clement:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2003 USC NCAA 0 0 NCA 209 37 43 21 9 .150 .794 .181 .298
2004 USC NCAA 0 0 NCA 200 43 39 10 13 .177 .805 .143 .293
2005 USC NCAA 0 0 NCA 233 57 43 15 17 .197 .815 .168 .348
2005 Everett Nwes 0 Sea A 12 3 2 0 1 .200 .833 .100 .273
2005 Wisconsin Midw 0 Sea A 114 13 25 6 5 .102 .781 .124 .319
jeff clement had patience and power in college, but his contact was not great. we'll see if he gets it. he's 33rd on the top 100. that seems high to me.
Career Batting Statistics for Adam Jones:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2003 Azl Mariners Ariz 18 Sea Rk 110 15 19 0 6 .120 .827 .066 .284
2003 Everett Nwes 18 Sea A 14 1 3 0 1 .067 .786 .091 .462
2004 Wisconsin Midw 19 Sea A 517 38 124 11 30 .068 .760 .104 .267
2005 Inland Empir Cali 20 Sea A 276 37 64 8 25 .118 .768 .156 .295
2005 San Antonio Tex 20 Sea AA 230 25 48 7 13 .098 .791 .110 .298
adam jones is a shortstop/centerfielder, which means he can play anywhere. he's young for his level, and he's on the threshold of breakout in all three skills, so it looks like he's gonna make it.
the thing to remember when you see mediocre numbers like this is that youth makes a big difference.
Career Batting Statistics for Kenji Johjima:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
1995 Fukuoka Jap 19 0 Int 12 1 4 0 0 .077 .667 .000 .167
1996 Fukuoka Jap 20 0 Int 58 4 9 4 2 .065 .845 .122 .241
1997 Fukuoka Jap 21 0 Int 439 27 62 15 26 .058 .859 .109 .308
1998 Fukuoka Jap 22 0 Int 399 35 67 16 19 .081 .832 .105 .251
1999 Fukuoka Jap 23 0 Int 494 39 61 17 34 .073 .877 .118 .306
2000 Fukuoka Jap 24 0 Int 304 33 48 9 24 .098 .842 .129 .310
2001 Fukuoka Jap 25 0 Int 536 37 55 31 18 .065 .897 .102 .258
2002 Fukuoka Jap 26 0 Int 422 38 41 25 18 .083 .903 .113 .293
2003 Fukuoka Jap 27 0 Int 558 68 50 34 41 .109 .910 .148 .330
2004 Daiei Jap 28 0 Int 426 71 45 36 26 .143 .894 .163 .338
2005 fsh jap 29 0 int 413 49 32 24 26 .106 .923 .131 .309
kenji johjima had a great career in japan. how do we translate his skills to the majors?
well, the patience and contact, both well above average, will be similar. they'll come down, but not too much. the power, on the other hand, will come down a lot. japanese parks are small, and they play with aluminum bats. i would expect a .110 .860 .100 wal con pow, which is still pretty solid. something like a .280/.330/.420 avg/obp/slg would result. which doesn't communicate his value because of the high contact.
this is what i wrote in january.
Career Batting Statistics for Chris Snelling:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
1999 Everett Nwes 17 Sea A 265 33 24 10 18 .111 .909 .116 .306
2000 Wisconsin Midw 18 Sea A 268 40 34 9 14 .130 .873 .098 .305
2001 San Bernardi Cali 19 Sea A 453 66 63 7 39 .127 .861 .118 .336
2002 San Antonio Tex 20 Sea AA 89 16 11 1 11 .152 .876 .154 .326
2002 Seattle Mari AL 20 Sea MLB 27 2 4 1 0 .069 .852 .043 .148
2003 San Antonio Tex 21 Sea AA 189 13 30 3 14 .064 .841 .107 .333
2003 Tacoma PCL 21 Sea AAA 68 7 12 3 2 .093 .824 .089 .269
2004 Azl Mariners Ariz 22 Sea Rk 32 10 3 0 5 .238 .906 .172 .312
2005 Tacoma PCL 23 Sea AAA 250 40 43 8 19 .138 .828 .130 .370
2005 Seattle Mari AL 23 Sea MLB 29 5 2 1 2 .147 .931 .111 .276
chris snelling was on the fast track to superstardom. he dominated high-a at the age of 19. then, in 2002, he made the majors, and tore his knee up. he's had multiple combacks and injuries since. he still has skills. he still may make it.
in 2004 he was my number 50 prospect.
look! he's in wikipedia!
jesus, everything's in wikipedia. the sabermetric stuff has predictable errors.
Career Batting Statistics for Matt Tuiasosopo:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2004 Azl Mariners Ariz 18 Sea Rk 70 19 14 4 7 .213 .800 .196 .412
2004 Everett Nwes 18 Sea A 102 14 36 2 7 .121 .647 .136 .248
2005 Wisconsin Midw 19 Sea A 410 53 96 6 24 .114 .766 .096 .276
despite his great name, matt has a lot of improvement to make to have a shot at the majors. hitting for contact and hitting for power. need more both. both need more. need both more.
Career Batting Statistics for Asdrubal Cabrera:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2004 Everett Nwes 18 Sea A 244 23 43 5 19 .086 .824 .119 .272
2005 Wisconsin Midw 19 Sea A 195 31 32 4 15 .137 .836 .117 .318
2005 Inland Empir Cali 19 Sea A 228 15 47 1 21 .062 .794 .122 .284
2005 Tacoma PCL 19 Sea AAA 23 1 4 0 1 .042 .826 .053 .217
another shortstop with a great name. this time it's the first name. i'm guessing there's an accent on the u. i don't really know though. hitting-wise, this kid's a lot better than matt. tuiasosopo. his older brother is a football player.
enough about the tuiasosopos. asdrubal cabrera played high a-ball last year at a very young age and performed reasonably well. the problem is he's unlikely to develop power. but he plays good defense.
he might make it.
Career Batting Statistics for Shin-Soo Choo:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2001 Wisconsin Midw 19 Sea A 13 2 3 0 0 .133 .769 .000 .462
2002 Wisconsin Midw 20 Sea A 421 83 98 6 32 .165 .767 .118 .302
2002 San Bernardi Cali 20 Sea A 39 11 9 1 6 .220 .769 .233 .308
2003 Inland Empir Cali 21 Sea A 416 53 84 9 31 .113 .798 .120 .286
2004 San Antonio Tex 22 Sea AA 520 58 97 15 24 .100 .813 .092 .315
2005 Tacoma PCL 23 Sea AAA 430 70 97 11 26 .140 .774 .111 .282
2005 Seattle Mari AL 23 Sea MLB 18 3 4 0 0 .143 .778 .000 .056
shin-soo choo does not have the contact, or the power, to succeed in the majors.
good name, though. just a normal korean name, but it sounds cool in english.
i have no idea how normal a name it is in korea.
Career Pitching Statistics for Emiliano Fruto:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 Wisconsin Midw 18 Sea A 111.2 101 6 55 99 .112 .773 .018 3.55
2003 Inland Empir Cali 19 Sea A 78.2 80 5 38 83 .107 .737 .021 3.78
2003 Tacoma PCL 19 Sea AAA 4.0 1 0 2 2 .133 .846 .000 0.00
2004 San Antonio Tex 20 Sea AA 68.1 77 6 37 56 .116 .801 .027 5.66
2005 San Antonio Tex 21 Sea AA 66.2 56 6 22 63 .079 .754 .031 2.56
2005 Tacoma PCL 21 Sea AAA 11.0 11 1 11 12 .200 .727 .031 13.09
can i let a name like "emiliano fruto" go by without commenting on it? i mean, that's a great name!
pitching-wise, he ain't so great. he throws difficult pitches, though. maybe he can get some control together, and have some success.
ok no more talking about names.
Career Pitching Statistics for Clint Nageotte:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2000 Azl Mariners Ariz 19 Sea Rk 50.0 29 0 28 59 .135 .670 .000 2.16
2001 Wisconsin Midw 20 Sea A 152.1 141 10 50 187 .077 .687 .024 3.13
2002 San Bernardi Cali 21 Sea A 164.2 153 10 68 214 .095 .669 .023 4.54
2003 San Antonio Tex 22 Sea AA 154.0 127 6 67 157 .102 .733 .014 3.10
2004 Tacoma PCL 23 Sea AAA 80.2 78 9 35 63 .099 .803 .035 4.46
2004 Seattle Mari AL 23 Sea MLB 36.2 48 3 27 24 .146 .848 .022 7.36
2005 Azl Mariners Ariz 24 Sea Rk 3.0 0 0 0 6 .000 .333 .000 0.00
2005 Tacoma PCL 24 Sea AAA 34.0 21 2 22 35 .152 .715 .023 2.65
2005 Seattle Mari AL 24 Sea MLB 4.0 6 0 1 1 .053 .944 .000 6.75
nageotte's kind of a weird name. not that weird, but kinda. it's not really cool or anything, just kinda weird.
whoops i broke my rule.
clint nageotte was my number 23 prospect in 2004. since then, it seems like he's had arm trouble.
i'm not really sure why i had him rated that high. his strikeouts are not great, and he has control issues.
oh. it was that retarded 2002. well, at this point he's got to be a longshot. it doesn't look like he has what he had.
Career Batting Statistics for Rob Johnson:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2004 Azl Mariners Ariz 21 Sea Rk 27 4 7 0 1 .129 .741 .050 .222
2004 Everett Nwes 21 Sea A 78 6 10 1 4 .071 .872 .074 .234
2005 Wisconsin Midw 22 Sea A 309 23 31 9 20 .069 .900 .104 .272
2005 Inland Empir Cali 22 Sea A 74 10 14 2 3 .119 .811 .083 .314
rob johnson??? that's the craziest name i've ever heard! where did they come up with that?
rob johnson was drafted out of saddleback college in 2004. he really improved his stock there, because he was drafted in the 41st round in 2002, and the 18th round in 2003. why am i talking about this? because there's nothing else to talk about. he made good contact in the midwestern league, but he's 22 so that's not really anything special. power doesn't seem likely.
we need more data.
the mariners need more prospects. and with that we are done with the three-month odyssey that began three months ago. two and a half. close enough. we have systematically analyzed the entire minor leagues. the top ten prospects of each system. as rated by baseball america. whatever we're done woohoooooooooooooo!
now i can concentrate on my top 50, and then the season starts.
woohooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
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