top prospects: padres
so far, there have been three truly stellar organizations: the marlins, dodgers, and diamondbacks. the braves, brewers, and pirates are also very strong. other than that, it's been crap. we finish the national league with two more crappy organizations, the padres and the giants.

the padres top prospects, as ranked by baseball america:

1. Cesar Carrillo, rhp
2. George Kottaras, c
3. Josh Barfield, 2b
4. Ben Johnson, of
5. Chase Headley, 3b
6. Clay Hensley, rhp
7. Jared Wells, rhp
8. Paul McAnulty, 1b/of
9. Nick Hundley, c
10. Freddy Guzman, of

the padres are not a strong organization. they got lucky last year to be in a division with no good teams. but it was a one-year thing. barry's back, the diamondbacks can hit, and even the dodgers might be better.

Career Pitching Statistics for Cesar Carrillo:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2004 U. of Miami  NCAA  0 0   NCA 113.2  93   6  43  91 .090 .790 .017  2.69
2005 U. of Miami  NCAA  0 0   NCA 125.2 100   5  23 127 .046 .734 .014  2.22
2005 Lake Elsinor Cali  0 Sd  A    25.2  30   3   9  29 .078 .729 .038  7.01
2005 Mobile       Sou   0 Sd  AA   30.2  23   2   7  35 .057 .696 .025  3.23

this kid was raw at miami. he's got this curveball that snaps. down. and he throws it for strikes. he got drafted in 2005 and that same year he's tearin up double-a. he's got everything.

it's disturbing that he threw 182 innings last year.

Career Batting Statistics for George Kottaras:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2003 Idaho Falls  Pio  20 Sd  Rk  144  20  36   7   9 .122 .750 .148 .259
2004 Fort Wayne   Midw 21 Sd  A   274  51  41   7  19 .157 .850 .112 .310
2005 Lake Elsinor Cali 22 Sd  A   341  51  60   9  29 .130 .824 .135 .303
2005 Mobile       Sou  22 Sd  AA  102  19  23   2   7 .157 .775 .114 .287

george kottaras has good patience, which bodes well for future improvement. he also looks like he'll develop power. contact will be a challenge, but i think he'll make it. good shot, at least.

Career Batting Statistics for Josh Barfield:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2001 Idaho Falls  Pio  18 Sd  Rk  281  19  54   4  19 .063 .808 .101 .310
2002 Fort Wayne   Midw 19 Sd  A   541  30 105   8  25 .053 .806 .076 .306
2002 Lake Elsinor Cali 19 Sd  A    24   1   4   0   0 .040 .833 .000 .087
2003 Lake Elsinor Cali 20 Sd  A   560  54 122  16  52 .088 .782 .155 .337
2004 Mobile       Sou  21 Sd  AA  528  53 119  18  31 .091 .775 .120 .248
2005 Portland     PCL  22 Sd  AAA 523  53 108  15  26 .092 .793 .099 .310

josh barfield has occasionally been a highly touted prospect. he hasn't really produced big numbers, but he's been slightly young for his level. contact looks like a challenge, but, shit, he hit 52 doubles in 2003. he's got a good shot.

Career Batting Statistics for Ben Johnson:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
1999 Johnson City App  18 Stl Rk  205  34  57  10  10 .142 .722 .135 .330
2000 Fort Wayne   Midw 19 Sd  A   109  10  25   3   8 .084 .771 .131 .193
2000 Peoria       Midw 19 Stl A   333  58  78  13  23 .148 .766 .141 .242
2001 Lake Elsinor Cali 20 Sd  A   505  65 141  12  41 .114 .721 .146 .276
2002 Mobile       Sou  21 Sd  AA  460  68 127  10  27 .129 .724 .111 .241
2003 Lake Elsinor Cali 22 Sd  A   184  25  49   8   9 .120 .734 .126 .266
2003 Mobile       Sou  22 Sd  AA  127  12  36   1   5 .086 .717 .066 .181
2004 Mobile       Sou  23 Sd  AA  480  62 136  23  34 .114 .717 .166 .251
2005 Portland     PCL  24 Sd  AAA 415  57  88  25  27 .121 .788 .159 .312
2005 San Diego Pa NL   24 Sd  MLB  76  11  23   3   9 .126 .697 .226 .213

ben johnson has power, but he has trouble with contact. he made big improvements in 2005, but it was still bad. it's unlikely he'll improve like that again. other skills are not good enough to win him a starting job.

Career Batting Statistics for Chase Headley:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2003 U. of the Pa NCAA  0 0   NCA 198  47  35   3  15 .192 .823 .110 .330
2004 U. of Tennes NCAA  0 0   NCA 113  18  14   2   5 .137 .876 .071 .295
2005 U. of Tennes NCAA  0 0   NCA 240  75  23  14  27 .238 .904 .189 .387
2005 Fort Wayne   Midw  0 Sd  A    15   1   4   0   0 .063 .733 .000 .200
2005 Eugene       Nwes  0 Sd  A   221  38  48   6  17 .147 .783 .133 .268

well, i like the name. actually there are good possibilities for mr headley here. the tennessee numbers are ridiculous, but we've seen a lot of this sort of thing in knoxville, and we must conclude that altitude is responsible.

but these are sick numbers. .238 wal .904 con .189 pow. are you kidding me? so he's got to have some talent. his first experience in pro ball was decent. good patience, good power, a little trouble with contact. he's got a good shot. any shot is a good shot. patience is a good indicator for improvement.

Career Pitching Statistics for Clay Hensley:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2002 SalemKaizer  Nwes 22 Sf  A    81.2  72   3  25  84 .073 .735 .013  2.53
2003 Hagerstown   SAL  23 Sf  A    68.0  56   4  20  74 .071 .715 .022  3.18
2003 Lake Elsinor Cali 23 Sd  A    44.1  51   0  14  40 .071 .783 .000  3.45
2003 San Jose     Cali 23 Sf  A    29.1  38   4   9  25 .067 .802 .040  5.83
2004 Mobile       Sou  24 Sd  AA  159.0 167  14  48 125 .069 .806 .027  4.30
2005 Portland     PCL  26 Sd  AAA  90.1  63   8  22  71 .062 .787 .030  2.99
2005 San Diego Pa NL   26 Sd  MLB  47.2  33   0  17  28 .088 .841 .000  1.70

i'm not exactly sure why clay hensley is a prospect. i guess he limits home runs. and his control is pretty good. he performed better than i would have expected in the majors last year. he will allow a home run eventually. i guess he's a serious sinkerballer or something. that can be useful. but that strikeout-to-walk ratio gives a thin margin. for success.

Career Pitching Statistics for Jared Wells:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2003 Eugene       Nwes 21 Sd  A    78.0  77   6  32  53 .093 .830 .023  2.77
2004 Lake Elsinor Cali 22 Sd  A    71.2  81   5  30  38 .092 .872 .019  4.52
2004 Fort Wayne   Midw 22 Sd  A    81.1  91   6  19  72 .054 .785 .023  4.09
2005 Lake Elsinor Cali 23 Sd  A   120.1 116   6  26  80 .052 .832 .015  3.44
2005 Mobile       Sou  23 Sd  AA   43.0  51   3  16  22 .082 .878 .019  4.40

it's interesting how an organization will have a flavor to its pitching. the rockies, for example, have flamethrowers that can't throw strikes. the padres are the exact opposite.

wells is another guy with good control who limits home runs. it doesn't look like he'll have the stuff to make it.

Career Batting Statistics for Paul McAnulty:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2002 Long Beach S NCAA 21 0   NCA 204  41  32   9  21 .167 .843 .174 .360
2002 Idaho Falls  Pio  21 Sd  Rk  238  53  43   8  29 .182 .819 .190 .379
2003 Fort Wayne   Midw 22 Sd  A   464  76  82   7  27 .141 .823 .089 .273
2004 Lake Elsinor Cali 23 Sd  A   499  92 106  23  39 .156 .788 .158 .297
2005 Mobile       Sou  24 Sd  AA  301  40  66  10  19 .117 .781 .123 .282
2005 Portland     PCL  24 Sd  AAA 152  16  29   6  15 .095 .809 .171 .344
2005 San Diego Pa NL   24 Sd  MLB  24   4   7   0   0 .143 .708 .000 .208

paul mcanulty has some power, but he doesn't make enough contact. he'll never be a factor in the major leagues.

Career Batting Statistics for Nick Hundley:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2003 U. of Arizon NCAA  0 0   NCA 134  20  21   2  14 .130 .843 .142 .361
2004 U. of Arizon NCAA  0 0   NCA 149  14  29   4  15 .086 .805 .158 .299
2005 U. of Arizon NCAA  0 0   NCA 230  43  43  15  25 .158 .813 .214 .352
2005 Fort Wayne   Midw  0 Sd  A    37   5   9   0   2 .119 .757 .071 .222
2005 Eugene       Nwes  0 Sd  A   149  35  35   7   8 .190 .765 .132 .250

nick hundley put up some eye-popping numbers in arizona last year, but it looks like contact will be a challenge. great patience though. yada yada yada sign for future success.

Career Batting Statistics for Freddy Guzman:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2003 Lake Elsinor Cali 22 Sd  A   283  42  60   2  15 .129 .788 .076 .285
2003 Mobile       Sou  22 Sd  AA  177  27  34   1   7 .132 .808 .056 .271
2003 Portland     PCL  22 Sd  AAA  10   0   1   0   0 .000 .900 .000 .300
2004 Mobile       Sou  23 Sd  AA  139  17  28   1   7 .109 .799 .072 .283
2004 Portland     PCL  23 Sd  AAA 265  31  46   1  16 .105 .826 .078 .292
2004 San Diego Pa NL   23 Sd  MLB  76   4  13   0   3 .050 .829 .048 .211

guzman is fast, but he just doesn't hit enough to be a viable prospect.

that's it for the padres. they definitely have possibilities. but they have no top-level talent. carrillo is pretty good. but he's just short of jered weaver, anthony reyes, and yusmeiro petit. the padres look to be a mediocre team for years to come. despite the presence of jake peavy.
- posted by julien @ 12:19 AM