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Monday, February 20, 2006
top prospects: blue jays
i've made no secret of my admiration for j.p. ricciardi. i think his offseason moves this year were brilliant. i think the jays are positioned for long-term success. they have a lineup full of young players at the major league level. young players improve. they have a healthy farm system, with players who are ready to contribute. here's the list from baseball america:
1. Dustin McGowan, rhp
2. Ricky Romero, lhp
3. David Purcey, lhp
4. Adam Lind, of/1b
5. Josh Banks, rhp
6. Casey Janssen, rhp
7. Brandon League, rhp
8. Francisco Rosario, rhp
9. Curtis Thigpen, c
10. Vince Perkins, rhp
ricciardi took over a system that had good position-player prospects and crappy pitching. as the position players have become established, he has drafted pitching like a madman. now the pitching comes rolling in. 8 of the top 10 prospects are pitchers. it's time to reap the benefits.
Career Pitching Statistics for Dustin McGowan:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2000 Medicine Hat Pio 18 Tor Rk 25.0 26 2 25 19 .198 .812 .024 6.48
2002 Charleston W SAL 20 Tor A 148.1 143 10 59 163 .091 .723 .024 4.19
2003 Dunedin FSL 21 Tor A 75.2 62 1 25 66 .080 .772 .004 2.85
2003 New Haven East 21 Tor AA 76.2 78 1 19 72 .058 .766 .004 3.17
2004 New Hampshir East 22 Tor AA 31.0 24 4 15 29 .114 .752 .045 4.06
2005 Dunedin FSL 23 Tor A 21.0 21 2 5 20 .056 .762 .031 4.29
2005 New Hampshir East 23 Tor AA 35.0 35 6 10 33 .067 .764 .056 3.34
2005 Toronto Blue AL 23 Tor MLB 45.1 49 7 17 34 .084 .816 .046 6.35
mcgowan threw too many innings in 02 and 03. then he tore his elbow in 2004. he's back now, and he looks good. his contact rates are strong. his control is excellent. home runs are a bit high but he has limited them in the past. despite the era, he performed well in his first taste of the major leagues. chances are good he'll be an effective major-league starter.
Career Pitching Statistics for Ricky Romero:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
1989 California S NCAA 0 0 NCA 56.1 48 4 18 46 .077 .788 .023 3.20
2004 California S NCAA 0 0 NCA 155.0 146 9 42 126 .064 .794 .019 3.37
2005 California S NCAA 0 0 NCA 134.0 102 6 34 139 .063 .724 .016 2.89
romero tore it up at cal-state fullerton. the fact that he's number two on this list means he must have great stuff. baseball america is like that. control is very good, as is home runs allowed. you'd like to see a little more dominance in the strikeout department to have him rated this high. but he's a lefty. lefty is good.
Career Pitching Statistics for David Purcey:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 U. of Oklaho NCAA 20 0 NCA 75.0 77 3 44 84 .127 .722 .014 3.36
2003 U. of Oklaho NCAA 21 0 NCA 72.2 72 4 41 67 .124 .769 .018 5.20
2004 U. of Oklaho NCAA 22 0 NCA 118.2 89 5 54 130 .108 .708 .016 3.11
2004 Auburn NYPL 22 Tor A 12.0 6 0 1 13 .023 .690 .000 1.50
2005 Dunedin FSL 23 Tor A 94.1 80 8 56 116 .134 .680 .032 3.63
2005 New Hampshir East 23 Tor AA 43.0 32 2 25 45 .134 .720 .017 2.93
david purcey. that's the kind of strikeouts we're talking about. and he's a lefty too. course the control is a little shaky. overall, a good prospect.
Career Batting Statistics for Adam Lind:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2003 U. of South NCAA 20 0 NCA 212 19 24 8 17 .082 .887 .133 .349
2004 U. of South NCAA 21 0 NCA 234 29 21 12 24 .110 .910 .169 .392
2004 Auburn NYPL 21 Tor A 268 26 36 7 23 .088 .866 .129 .312
2005 Dunedin FSL 22 Tor A 501 53 77 12 46 .096 .846 .137 .313
i gotta say, this kid looks good. his con and pow were incredible in college, and he has continued to hit with authority in the minors. i think he's gonna make it.
Career Pitching Statistics for Josh Banks:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2001 Florida Inte NCAA 19 0 NCA 36.0 46 5 10 37 .061 .760 .043 3.00
2002 Florida Inte NCAA 20 0 NCA 34.0 24 3 12 47 .087 .627 .038 2.65
2003 Auburn NYPL 21 Tor A 66.2 58 1 10 81 .037 .686 .006 2.43
2004 Dunedin FSL 22 Tor A 60.0 49 4 8 60 .034 .738 .024 1.80
2004 New Hampshir East 22 Tor AA 91.1 89 15 28 76 .072 .791 .052 5.03
2005 New Hampshir East 23 Tor AA 162.1 159 18 11 145 .017 .776 .036 3.83
banks has incredible control. 11 walks in 162 innings. gimme a break. he also seems to have enough of a contact percentage to make it. he should progress quickly.
Career Pitching Statistics for Casey Janssen:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2001 UCLA NCAA 19 0 NCA 32.0 35 3 19 22 .127 .832 .028 5.62
2002 UCLA NCAA 20 0 NCA 44.0 47 2 23 47 .114 .737 .015 4.09
2003 UCLA NCAA 21 0 NCA 72.0 93 0 25 73 .075 .764 .000 5.88
2004 UCLA NCAA 22 0 NCA 116.2 87 7 30 103 .064 .764 .021 3.16
2004 Auburn NYPL 22 Tor A 51.2 47 2 10 45 .047 .777 .013 3.48
2005 Lansing Midw 24 Tor A 46.0 27 0 4 38 .024 .770 .000 1.37
2005 Dunedin FSL 24 Tor A 59.2 46 2 12 51 .051 .773 .011 2.26
2005 New Hampshir East 24 Tor AA 43.0 49 3 4 47 .022 .736 .023 2.93
janssen also has incredible control. and he limits home runs. he also should hit the bigs quickly.
Career Pitching Statistics for Brandon League:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2001 Medicine Hat Pio 18 Tor Rk 38.2 36 3 11 38 .067 .750 .026 4.66
2002 Auburn NYPL 19 Tor A 85.2 80 2 23 72 .064 .786 .008 3.15
2003 Dunedin FSL 20 Tor A 66.1 76 3 20 34 .068 .876 .012 4.75
2003 Charleston W SAL 20 Tor A 70.2 58 1 18 61 .063 .774 .005 1.91
2004 New Hampshir East 21 Tor AA 104.0 92 3 41 90 .092 .777 .010 3.38
2004 Toronto Blue AL 21 Tor MLB 4.2 3 0 1 2 .056 .882 .000 0.00
2005 Syracuse IL 22 Tor AAA 63.0 78 7 18 35 .063 .869 .030 5.71
2005 Toronto Blue AL 22 Tor MLB 35.2 42 8 20 17 .118 .886 .061 6.56
another pitcher with good control. i think there's a theme here. baseball america overvalued this guy last year when they made him the number one prospect. he did have incredibly low home run totals. but the strikeouts are not enough to be a top major-league pitcher. he could be a guy.
Career Pitching Statistics for Francisco Rosario:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
1999 Dominican Bl Dsl 19 Tor Rk 32.1 26 0 11 38 .082 .691 .000 3.06
2000 Dominican Bl Dsl 20 Tor Rk 37.0 21 0 7 51 .050 .614 .000 1.22
2001 Medicine Hat Pio 21 Tor Rk 75.2 79 8 38 55 .110 .820 .032 5.59
2002 Charleston W SAL 22 Tor A 66.2 50 5 14 78 .053 .688 .029 2.56
2002 Dunedin FSL 22 Tor A 63.0 33 3 25 65 .101 .707 .019 1.29
2004 Dunedin FSL 24 Tor A 17.1 16 2 11 16 .139 .765 .038 4.67
2004 New Hampshir East 24 Tor AA 48.0 48 6 16 45 .077 .766 .041 4.31
2005 Syracuse IL 25 Tor AAA 116.1 111 16 42 80 .084 .826 .042 3.95
rosario also has good control, but he's a little old, and he hasn't dominated. he's not really a prospect.
Career Batting Statistics for Curtis Thigpen:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 U. of Texas NCAA 19 0 NCA 83 22 11 1 8 .210 .867 .125 .256
2003 U. of Texas NCAA 20 0 NCA 212 34 41 6 10 .138 .807 .094 .311
2004 U. of Texas NCAA 21 0 NCA 283 50 26 7 30 .150 .908 .144 .378
2004 Auburn NYPL 21 Tor A 169 26 32 7 13 .133 .811 .146 .301
2005 Lansing Midw 22 Tor A 295 55 34 5 20 .157 .885 .096 .287
2005 New Hampshir East 22 Tor AA 141 12 19 4 8 .078 .865 .098 .284
i like this guy. a lot. he reminds me of dioner navarro. great strike zone skills, great contact. he had a super year in texas in 2004. curtis thigpen is another good young catcher prospect that we've seen so many of. there's gonna be a catcher explosion.
Career Pitching Statistics for Vince Perkins:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 Auburn NYPL 20 Tor A 72.2 51 3 44 85 .141 .684 .016 3.34
2003 Charleston W SAL 21 Tor A 44.1 19 1 22 60 .126 .605 .011 1.83
2003 Dunedin FSL 21 Tor A 84.1 58 1 53 69 .146 .778 .004 2.45
2004 Dunedin FSL 22 Tor A 54.2 53 2 24 47 .100 .783 .012 3.95
2005 New Hampshir East 24 Tor AA 131.2 124 9 51 111 .089 .786 .022 4.03
vince perkins doesn't really seem like he has that much. he dominated the sally league in 2003, but then it looks like he got hurt or something. maybe he'll get it back. he's kind of old, though.
lots of good stuff here. and that's not all. the blue jays have depth. lots of these arms will find their way into the bullpen, and make spot starts. the value of minor league pitching depth is not to be underestimated. also, the two hitting prospects who made this list look good to make it.
names who could contribute:
pitching: chad gaudin, shaun marcum, jamie vermilyea, steve andrade, ryan houston.
hitting: chip cannon, john-ford griffin, rob cosby, ron davenport, sergio santos (more of a fielder than a hitter).
the pitching is definitely better than the hitting. the pitching is so deep! gaudin has already pitched in the majors, and is effective. marcum has great control and decent strikeout rates. vermilyea has very good control and good home run limitation. andrade and houston are a little older but they have intriguing numbers:
Career Pitching Statistics for Steve Andrade:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2001 Provo Pio 23 Ana Rk 2.0 3 0 0 5 .000 .444 .000 0.00
2002 Cedar Rapids Midw 24 Ana A 54.1 30 1 16 93 .077 .518 .010 1.16
2003 Rancho Cucam Cali 25 Ana A 3.0 0 0 3 7 .250 .222 .000 0.00
2003 Arkansas Tex 25 Ana AA 51.0 26 2 19 74 .096 .587 .019 2.65
2004 Arkansas Tex 26 Ana AA 48.0 37 4 12 59 .062 .674 .033 2.44
2004 Salt Lake PCL 26 Ana AAA 13.2 15 1 8 17 .125 .696 .026 4.61
2005 New Hampshir East 27 Tor AA 50.1 23 3 16 71 .084 .592 .029 1.97
71 strikeouts, 16 walks, 3 home runs, twenty-three hits! in 50 innings. you can't ignore that. also, in 2002 he had a con of .518. i don't know what to do with these numbers but i figure you gotta see if he can pitch in the majors. i mean maybe he can.
Career Pitching Statistics for Ryan Houston:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
1999 Medicine Hat Pio 19 Tor Rk 45.2 61 4 19 30 .088 .848 .024 6.70
2000 Queens NYPL 20 Tor A 28.2 23 0 8 29 .068 .734 .000 2.83
2000 Hagerstown SAL 20 Tor A 36.2 17 2 13 27 .093 .787 .020 2.21
2002 Auburn NYPL 22 Tor A 31.0 32 1 15 19 .107 .848 .009 4.06
2002 Charleston W SAL 22 Tor A 29.2 31 2 9 24 .070 .800 .021 4.25
2003 Charleston W SAL 23 Tor A 30.1 22 1 12 38 .096 .664 .013 2.67
2003 Dunedin FSL 23 Tor A 50.2 36 2 30 54 .138 .713 .015 2.66
2004 New Hampshir East 24 Tor AA 97.2 93 13 50 102 .115 .736 .046 4.33
2005 New Hampshir East 26 Tor AA 40.1 26 3 13 50 .081 .660 .031 2.68
houston was a mediocre pitcher until he all of a sudden got control. 50 strikeouts in 40 innings, with 26 hits, 3 home runs, and 13 walks. that's all good. none of that is bad. he's old but he's got a shot.
also, has everyone forgotten about guillermo quiroz? just because he hasn't played doesn't mean he lost his talent.
Career Batting Statistics for Guillermo Quiroz:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
1999 Medicine Hat Pio 17 Tor Rk 208 22 55 9 7 .096 .736 .105 .221
2000 Queens NYPL 18 Tor A 196 27 48 5 9 .121 .755 .095 .224
2000 Hagerstown SAL 18 Tor A 136 20 44 1 4 .128 .676 .054 .162
2001 Charleston S SAL 19 Tor A 261 29 67 7 12 .100 .743 .098 .199
2002 Dunedin FSL 20 Tor A 414 44 91 12 29 .096 .780 .127 .260
2002 Syracuse IL 20 Tor AAA 45 3 14 1 4 .063 .689 .161 .222
2003 New Haven East 21 Tor AA 376 57 83 20 27 .132 .779 .160 .282
2004 Syracuse IL 22 Tor AAA 257 31 54 8 20 .108 .790 .138 .227
2004 Toronto Blue AL 22 Tor MLB 53 4 8 0 2 .070 .849 .044 .212
2005 Dunedin FSL 23 Tor A 38 2 8 2 1 .050 .789 .100 .237
2005 Syracuse IL 23 Tor AAA 83 9 19 6 3 .098 .771 .141 .229
2005 Toronto Blue AL 23 Tor MLB 36 3 13 0 2 .077 .639 .087 .194
quiroz was my number 6 prospect in 2004. since then, he hasn't really played. but he's still young, and he's still got patience and power. and his contact is good enough.
with the acquisition of molina, it's triple-a for quiroz. but that's fine. he just needs to play. with curtis thigpen in double-a, the jays are stocked at catcher.
i wish i were the toronto blue jays!
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