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Thursday, January 26, 2006
top prospects: cubs
the cubs have had a history of good prospects, but they have trouble making them pay off. either they trade them or, if they're pitchers, burn up their arms.
1. Felix Pie, of
2. Mark Pawelek, lhp
3. Ronny Cedeno, ss
4. Angel Guzman, rhp
5. Rich Hill, lhp
6. Sean Marshall, lhp
7. Ricky Nolasco, rhp
8. Ryan Harvey, of
9. Brian Dopirak, 1b
10. Eric Patterson, 2b
there's some good stuff here, but overall it's a bit thin.
Career Batting Statistics for Felix Pie:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 Azl Cubs Ariz 17 Chc Rk 222 25 47 4 29 .101 .788 .189 .321
2002 Boise Nwes 17 Chc A 8 1 1 0 1 .111 .875 .143 .125
2003 Lansing Midw 18 Chc A 505 47 98 4 31 .085 .806 .086 .285
2004 Daytona FSL 19 Chc A 436 44 116 8 28 .092 .734 .113 .297
2005 West Tenness Sou 20 Chc AA 243 18 53 11 22 .069 .782 .174 .304
felix pie is a good one. he played double-a at a very young 20, and had much power. the strikeouts are not a problem because he's young. he needs to learn patience. he's gonna be fine.
he's a lefty.
Career Pitching Statistics for Mark Pawelek:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2005 Azl Cubs Ariz 19 Chc Rk 43.0 25 0 21 56 .120 .636 .000 2.72
2005 Boise Nwes 19 Chc A 3.0 6 0 1 4 .063 .733 .000 0.00
the number 2 prospect is a 19-year-old pitcher. not exactly a bankable commodity. mark had lots of nice strikeouts in rookie ball. but rookie ball is a long way from the majors. he won't be helping anytime soon.
he's a lefty. yes, i know; that's very exciting.
Career Batting Statistics for Ronny Cedeno:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2000 La Pradera VSL 17 Chc Rk 167 19 37 3 11 .102 .778 .108 .287
2001 Lansing Midw 18 Chc A 56 3 18 1 5 .051 .679 .158 .196
2002 Boise Nwes 19 Chc A 111 9 25 0 7 .075 .775 .081 .218
2002 Lansing Midw 19 Chc A 379 30 74 2 21 .073 .805 .075 .213
2003 Daytona FSL 20 Chc A 383 25 82 4 19 .061 .786 .076 .211
2004 West Tenness Sou 21 Chc AA 392 32 74 6 24 .075 .811 .094 .279
2005 Iowa PCL 22 Chc AAA 247 21 31 8 15 .078 .874 .106 .355
2005 Chicago Cubs NL 22 Chc MLB 80 7 11 1 3 .080 .863 .058 .300
ronny cedeno is a shortstop. he's young, he makes great contact, and he's developing power. so, yeah, he's gonna make it.
Career Pitching Statistics for Angel Guzman:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2000 La Pradera VSL 18 Chc Rk 32.2 24 0 5 25 .039 .795 .000 1.93
2002 Lansing Midw 20 Chc A 62.0 42 3 16 49 .066 .785 .017 1.89
2002 Daytona FSL 20 Chc A 94.0 99 2 33 74 .080 .806 .007 2.39
2003 West Tenness Sou 21 Chc AA 89.2 83 8 26 87 .069 .753 .030 2.81
2004 Daytona FSL 22 Chc A 30.0 27 2 0 40 .000 .658 .026 4.20
2004 West Tenness Sou 22 Chc AA 17.2 20 2 4 13 .052 .822 .033 5.60
2005 Azl Cubs Ariz 23 Chc Rk 12.0 10 0 1 17 .021 .630 .000 1.50
2005 Peoria Midw 23 Chc A 6.1 10 1 0 7 .000 .759 .045 4.26
guzman showed good control for his age, and moved up quickly. but he was overused, and he got hurt. 156 innings in 2002. at the age of 20. the cubs have burned up the majority of their quality pitching prospects. when that happens, something is wrong.
that daytona line is retarded. 40 strikeouts and zero walks in 30 innings.
Career Pitching Statistics for Rich Hill:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2000 U. of Michig NCAA 20 0 NCA 40.0 34 4 42 53 .214 .656 .040 9.22
2001 U. of Michig NCAA 21 0 NCA 61.0 43 2 53 72 .190 .681 .013 3.84
2002 U. of Michig NCAA 22 0 NCA 76.0 64 0 38 104 .115 .644 .000 3.55
2002 Boise Nwes 22 Chc A 14.0 15 0 14 12 .197 .789 .000 8.36
2003 Lansing Midw 23 Chc A 29.1 14 0 36 50 .261 .510 .000 2.76
2003 Boise Nwes 23 Chc A 68.0 57 5 32 99 .109 .621 .031 4.37
2004 Daytona FSL 24 Chc A 109.1 88 9 72 136 .148 .673 .032 4.03
2005 Peoria Midw 25 Chc A 8.0 5 0 0 12 .000 .586 .000 1.12
2005 West Tenness Sou 25 Chc AA 57.2 42 9 21 90 .089 .581 .072 3.28
2005 Iowa PCL 25 Chc AAA 65.0 53 11 14 92 .053 .629 .071 3.60
2005 Chicago Cubs NL 25 Chc MLB 23.2 25 3 17 21 .150 .781 .040 9.13
these numbers are interesting. rich hill has always had good strikeout rates (con of .510 in lansing, for example), but terrible control (wal of .261 in lansing, for example). he finally last year showed the ability to throw the ball over the plate, and got some major league time. he proceeded to walk almost as many as he struck out, while posting an above-average strikeout rate.
it's pretty common to get a case of the walks on one's first stint in the majors. rich'll straighten himself out. he'll never be david wells, but with that con, he won't have to be.
Career Pitching Statistics for Sean Marshall:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2001 Va. Commonwe NCAA 18 0 NCA 72.0 65 5 30 69 .096 .754 .024 3.38
2002 Va. Commonwe NCAA 19 0 NCA 85.0 99 1 26 90 .068 .746 .004 4.45
2003 Va. Commonwe NCAA 20 0 NCA 86.1 77 4 29 95 .079 .717 .017 2.61
2003 Lansing Midw 20 Chc A 7.0 5 0 0 11 .000 .577 .000 0.00
2003 Boise Nwes 20 Chc A 73.0 66 1 23 88 .075 .691 .005 2.59
2004 Lansing Midw 21 Chc A 48.2 29 1 4 51 .022 .709 .008 1.11
2004 West Tenness Sou 21 Chc AA 29.0 36 2 12 23 .089 .813 .020 5.90
2005 Daytona FSL 23 Chc A 69.0 63 7 26 61 .088 .774 .033 2.74
2005 West Tenness Sou 23 Chc AA 25.0 16 1 5 24 .052 .736 .015 2.52
sean showed good numbers in boise, then dominated lansing. 4 walks in 55 innings, with 62 strikeouts and 1 home run. then, for some reason, they skipped him to double-a. then i guess he got hurt. he came back and got that time in high-a, then got some more time in double-a.
he's got the lefty mojo. i hope he holds up. he threw 166 innings in 2003.
Career Pitching Statistics for Ricky Nolasco:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2002 Boise Nwes 19 Chc A 90.2 72 1 25 92 .068 .733 .004 2.48
2003 Daytona FSL 20 Chc A 149.0 129 7 48 136 .077 .764 .016 2.96
2004 West Tenness Sou 21 Chc AA 107.0 104 13 37 115 .080 .729 .042 3.70
2004 Iowa PCL 21 Chc AAA 40.2 68 7 16 28 .078 .853 .043 9.30
2005 West Tenness Sou 22 Chc AA 161.2 151 13 46 173 .067 .728 .028 2.89
nolasco posted good numbers at high levels at a young age, then got hammered in the pcl. in 2005, he was back in double-a, and he looked pretty good. he's thrown a lot of innings.
Career Batting Statistics for Ryan Harvey:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2003 Azl Cubs Ariz 19 Chc Rk 51 8 21 1 5 .136 .588 .200 .235
2004 Azl Cubs Ariz 20 Chc Rk 10 0 4 0 3 .000 .600 .500 .400
2004 Boise Nwes 20 Chc A 234 23 78 14 8 .089 .667 .141 .264
2005 Peoria Midw 21 Chc A 473 33 137 24 32 .065 .710 .167 .257
ryan harvey has trouble making contact. he won't make it.
Career Batting Statistics for Brian Dopirak:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 Azl Cubs Ariz 18 Chc Rk 79 6 23 0 4 .071 .709 .071 .253
2003 Lansing Midw 19 Chc A 78 4 22 2 3 .049 .718 .089 .269
2003 Boise Nwes 19 Chc A 192 26 58 13 4 .119 .698 .127 .240
2004 Lansing Midw 20 Chc A 546 51 123 39 38 .085 .775 .182 .307
2005 Daytona FSL 21 Chc A 512 41 107 16 26 .074 .791 .104 .235
well, dopirak hit some bombs in lansing, but he also has some trouble with the contact. not nearly as much as harvey, though. i still say he's a longshot.
Career Batting Statistics for Eric Patterson:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 Georgia Tech NCAA 19 0 NCA 263 45 42 3 17 .146 .840 .090 .346
2004 Georgia Tech NCAA 21 0 NCA 267 52 54 9 16 .163 .798 .117 .326
2005 Peoria Midw 22 Chc A 439 57 94 13 37 .115 .786 .145 .333
2005 West Tenness Sou 22 Chc AA 31 6 7 0 2 .162 .774 .083 .200
i wasn't too optimistic until i saw that he's a lefty. eric has good patience and good power. the only thing is the contact. he's got a shot. 50%.
well, that's the cubs. good stuff, but no superstars. pie is very talented, but he may never learn to walk. cedeno should have a solid career, and at least one of the pitchers will work out. but it won't be enough to make them contenders. they're gonna have to do better.
it's their own fault for burning through their pitching. live and learn, i guess.
let's end on a positive note. the best cub for the near future will be matt murton. let's take a look at him.
Career Batting Statistics for Matt Murton:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 Georgia Tech NCAA 20 0 NCA 253 42 37 10 17 .142 .854 .125 .344
2003 Lowell NYPL 21 Bos A 196 31 39 2 13 .137 .801 .096 .286
2004 Daytona FSL 22 Chc A 80 9 10 2 2 .101 .875 .057 .253
2004 Sarasota FSL 22 Bos A 380 45 61 11 20 .106 .839 .097 .301
2005 West Tenness Sou 23 Chc AA 314 33 42 8 21 .095 .866 .107 .342
2005 Iowa PCL 23 Chc AAA 34 4 8 1 2 .105 .765 .115 .353
2005 Chicago Cubs NL 23 Chc MLB 142 16 22 7 5 .101 .845 .100 .321
murton makes good contact, and it looks like he'll develop power. and he's got decent patience. all his numbers are right at their threshold, where small improvements have big results. he'll breakout at any time.
Comments:
i went and looked at your numbers, ryan, and you have 23 strikeouts in 73 at-bats. you do have 5 home runs, but with that kind of contact difficulty it's gonna be a long, tough road to the majors.
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