top prospects: cubs
the cubs have had a history of good prospects, but they have trouble making them pay off. either they trade them or, if they're pitchers, burn up their arms.

1. Felix Pie, of
2. Mark Pawelek, lhp
3. Ronny Cedeno, ss
4. Angel Guzman, rhp
5. Rich Hill, lhp
6. Sean Marshall, lhp
7. Ricky Nolasco, rhp
8. Ryan Harvey, of
9. Brian Dopirak, 1b
10. Eric Patterson, 2b 

there's some good stuff here, but overall it's a bit thin.

Career Batting Statistics for Felix Pie:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2002 Azl Cubs     Ariz 17 Chc Rk  222  25  47   4  29 .101 .788 .189 .321
2002 Boise        Nwes 17 Chc A     8   1   1   0   1 .111 .875 .143 .125
2003 Lansing      Midw 18 Chc A   505  47  98   4  31 .085 .806 .086 .285
2004 Daytona      FSL  19 Chc A   436  44 116   8  28 .092 .734 .113 .297
2005 West Tenness Sou  20 Chc AA  243  18  53  11  22 .069 .782 .174 .304

felix pie is a good one. he played double-a at a very young 20, and had much power. the strikeouts are not a problem because he's young. he needs to learn patience. he's gonna be fine.

he's a lefty.

Career Pitching Statistics for Mark Pawelek:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2005 Azl Cubs     Ariz 19 Chc Rk   43.0  25   0  21  56 .120 .636 .000  2.72
2005 Boise        Nwes 19 Chc A     3.0   6   0   1   4 .063 .733 .000  0.00

the number 2 prospect is a 19-year-old pitcher. not exactly a bankable commodity. mark had lots of nice strikeouts in rookie ball. but rookie ball is a long way from the majors. he won't be helping anytime soon.

he's a lefty. yes, i know; that's very exciting.

Career Batting Statistics for Ronny Cedeno:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2000 La Pradera   VSL  17 Chc Rk  167  19  37   3  11 .102 .778 .108 .287
2001 Lansing      Midw 18 Chc A    56   3  18   1   5 .051 .679 .158 .196
2002 Boise        Nwes 19 Chc A   111   9  25   0   7 .075 .775 .081 .218
2002 Lansing      Midw 19 Chc A   379  30  74   2  21 .073 .805 .075 .213
2003 Daytona      FSL  20 Chc A   383  25  82   4  19 .061 .786 .076 .211
2004 West Tenness Sou  21 Chc AA  392  32  74   6  24 .075 .811 .094 .279
2005 Iowa         PCL  22 Chc AAA 247  21  31   8  15 .078 .874 .106 .355
2005 Chicago Cubs NL   22 Chc MLB  80   7  11   1   3 .080 .863 .058 .300

ronny cedeno is a shortstop. he's young, he makes great contact, and he's developing power. so, yeah, he's gonna make it.

Career Pitching Statistics for Angel Guzman:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2000 La Pradera   VSL  18 Chc Rk   32.2  24   0   5  25 .039 .795 .000  1.93
2002 Lansing      Midw 20 Chc A    62.0  42   3  16  49 .066 .785 .017  1.89
2002 Daytona      FSL  20 Chc A    94.0  99   2  33  74 .080 .806 .007  2.39
2003 West Tenness Sou  21 Chc AA   89.2  83   8  26  87 .069 .753 .030  2.81
2004 Daytona      FSL  22 Chc A    30.0  27   2   0  40 .000 .658 .026  4.20
2004 West Tenness Sou  22 Chc AA   17.2  20   2   4  13 .052 .822 .033  5.60
2005 Azl Cubs     Ariz 23 Chc Rk   12.0  10   0   1  17 .021 .630 .000  1.50
2005 Peoria       Midw 23 Chc A     6.1  10   1   0   7 .000 .759 .045  4.26

guzman showed good control for his age, and moved up quickly. but he was overused, and he got hurt. 156 innings in 2002. at the age of 20. the cubs have burned up the majority of their quality pitching prospects. when that happens, something is wrong.

that daytona line is retarded. 40 strikeouts and zero walks in 30 innings.

Career Pitching Statistics for Rich Hill:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2000 U. of Michig NCAA 20 0   NCA  40.0  34   4  42  53 .214 .656 .040  9.22
2001 U. of Michig NCAA 21 0   NCA  61.0  43   2  53  72 .190 .681 .013  3.84
2002 U. of Michig NCAA 22 0   NCA  76.0  64   0  38 104 .115 .644 .000  3.55
2002 Boise        Nwes 22 Chc A    14.0  15   0  14  12 .197 .789 .000  8.36
2003 Lansing      Midw 23 Chc A    29.1  14   0  36  50 .261 .510 .000  2.76
2003 Boise        Nwes 23 Chc A    68.0  57   5  32  99 .109 .621 .031  4.37
2004 Daytona      FSL  24 Chc A   109.1  88   9  72 136 .148 .673 .032  4.03
2005 Peoria       Midw 25 Chc A     8.0   5   0   0  12 .000 .586 .000  1.12
2005 West Tenness Sou  25 Chc AA   57.2  42   9  21  90 .089 .581 .072  3.28
2005 Iowa         PCL  25 Chc AAA  65.0  53  11  14  92 .053 .629 .071  3.60
2005 Chicago Cubs NL   25 Chc MLB  23.2  25   3  17  21 .150 .781 .040  9.13

these numbers are interesting. rich hill has always had good strikeout rates (con of .510 in lansing, for example), but terrible control (wal of .261 in lansing, for example). he finally last year showed the ability to throw the ball over the plate, and got some major league time. he proceeded to walk almost as many as he struck out, while posting an above-average strikeout rate.

it's pretty common to get a case of the walks on one's first stint in the majors. rich'll straighten himself out. he'll never be david wells, but with that con, he won't have to be.

Career Pitching Statistics for Sean Marshall:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2001 Va. Commonwe NCAA 18 0   NCA  72.0  65   5  30  69 .096 .754 .024  3.38
2002 Va. Commonwe NCAA 19 0   NCA  85.0  99   1  26  90 .068 .746 .004  4.45
2003 Va. Commonwe NCAA 20 0   NCA  86.1  77   4  29  95 .079 .717 .017  2.61
2003 Lansing      Midw 20 Chc A     7.0   5   0   0  11 .000 .577 .000  0.00
2003 Boise        Nwes 20 Chc A    73.0  66   1  23  88 .075 .691 .005  2.59
2004 Lansing      Midw 21 Chc A    48.2  29   1   4  51 .022 .709 .008  1.11
2004 West Tenness Sou  21 Chc AA   29.0  36   2  12  23 .089 .813 .020  5.90
2005 Daytona      FSL  23 Chc A    69.0  63   7  26  61 .088 .774 .033  2.74
2005 West Tenness Sou  23 Chc AA   25.0  16   1   5  24 .052 .736 .015  2.52

sean showed good numbers in boise, then dominated lansing. 4 walks in 55 innings, with 62 strikeouts and 1 home run. then, for some reason, they skipped him to double-a. then i guess he got hurt. he came back and got that time in high-a, then got some more time in double-a.

he's got the lefty mojo. i hope he holds up. he threw 166 innings in 2003.

Career Pitching Statistics for Ricky Nolasco:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2002 Boise        Nwes 19 Chc A    90.2  72   1  25  92 .068 .733 .004  2.48
2003 Daytona      FSL  20 Chc A   149.0 129   7  48 136 .077 .764 .016  2.96
2004 West Tenness Sou  21 Chc AA  107.0 104  13  37 115 .080 .729 .042  3.70
2004 Iowa         PCL  21 Chc AAA  40.2  68   7  16  28 .078 .853 .043  9.30
2005 West Tenness Sou  22 Chc AA  161.2 151  13  46 173 .067 .728 .028  2.89

nolasco posted good numbers at high levels at a young age, then got hammered in the pcl. in 2005, he was back in double-a, and he looked pretty good. he's thrown a lot of innings.

Career Batting Statistics for Ryan Harvey:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2003 Azl Cubs     Ariz 19 Chc Rk   51   8  21   1   5 .136 .588 .200 .235
2004 Azl Cubs     Ariz 20 Chc Rk   10   0   4   0   3 .000 .600 .500 .400
2004 Boise        Nwes 20 Chc A   234  23  78  14   8 .089 .667 .141 .264
2005 Peoria       Midw 21 Chc A   473  33 137  24  32 .065 .710 .167 .257

ryan harvey has trouble making contact. he won't make it.

Career Batting Statistics for Brian Dopirak:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2002 Azl Cubs     Ariz 18 Chc Rk   79   6  23   0   4 .071 .709 .071 .253
2003 Lansing      Midw 19 Chc A    78   4  22   2   3 .049 .718 .089 .269
2003 Boise        Nwes 19 Chc A   192  26  58  13   4 .119 .698 .127 .240
2004 Lansing      Midw 20 Chc A   546  51 123  39  38 .085 .775 .182 .307
2005 Daytona      FSL  21 Chc A   512  41 107  16  26 .074 .791 .104 .235

well, dopirak hit some bombs in lansing, but he also has some trouble with the contact. not nearly as much as harvey, though. i still say he's a longshot.

Career Batting Statistics for Eric Patterson:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2002 Georgia Tech NCAA 19 0   NCA 263  45  42   3  17 .146 .840 .090 .346
2004 Georgia Tech NCAA 21 0   NCA 267  52  54   9  16 .163 .798 .117 .326
2005 Peoria       Midw 22 Chc A   439  57  94  13  37 .115 .786 .145 .333
2005 West Tenness Sou  22 Chc AA   31   6   7   0   2 .162 .774 .083 .200

i wasn't too optimistic until i saw that he's a lefty. eric has good patience and good power. the only thing is the contact. he's got a shot. 50%.

well, that's the cubs. good stuff, but no superstars. pie is very talented, but he may never learn to walk. cedeno should have a solid career, and at least one of the pitchers will work out. but it won't be enough to make them contenders. they're gonna have to do better.

it's their own fault for burning through their pitching. live and learn, i guess.

let's end on a positive note. the best cub for the near future will be matt murton. let's take a look at him.

Career Batting Statistics for Matt Murton:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2002 Georgia Tech NCAA 20 0   NCA 253  42  37  10  17 .142 .854 .125 .344
2003 Lowell       NYPL 21 Bos A   196  31  39   2  13 .137 .801 .096 .286
2004 Daytona      FSL  22 Chc A    80   9  10   2   2 .101 .875 .057 .253
2004 Sarasota     FSL  22 Bos A   380  45  61  11  20 .106 .839 .097 .301
2005 West Tenness Sou  23 Chc AA  314  33  42   8  21 .095 .866 .107 .342
2005 Iowa         PCL  23 Chc AAA  34   4   8   1   2 .105 .765 .115 .353
2005 Chicago Cubs NL   23 Chc MLB 142  16  22   7   5 .101 .845 .100 .321

murton makes good contact, and it looks like he'll develop power. and he's got decent patience. all his numbers are right at their threshold, where small improvements have big results. he'll breakout at any time.
- posted by julien @ 12:16 PM