top prospects: astros
that reds list was so bad, i had to do another one to shake it off. the astros look a lot better in comparison, but they're not that great. they do have a lot of pitching depth.

1. Jason Hirsh, rhp
2. Troy Patton, lhp
3. Fernando Nieve, rhp
4. Jimmy Barthmaier, rhp
5. Eli Iorg, of
6. Hunter Pence, of
7. Felipe Paulino del Guidice, rhp
8. Juan Gutierrez, rhp
9. Brian Bogusevic, lhp
10. Josh Flores, of

despite the depth, none of these guys are top-level.

Career Pitching Statistics for Jason Hirsh:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2003 Tri City     NYPL 21 Hou A    32.1  22   0   7  33 .056 .723 .000  1.95
2004 Salem        Caro 22 Hou A   130.1 128   8  57  96 .099 .815 .019  4.01
2005 Corpus Chris Tex  23 Hou AA  172.1 137  12  42 165 .060 .748 .025  2.87

hirsh had trouble in 2004, but he really improved in 2005. his numbers are good across the board, but he doesn't dominate. good chance to make it. not much upside beyond that.

Career Pitching Statistics for Troy Patton:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2004 Greeneville  App  18 Hou Rk   28.0  23   1   5  32 .045 .701 .013  1.93
2005 Salem        Caro 20 Hou A    41.0  34   2   8  38 .048 .758 .017  2.63
2005 Lexington    SAL  20 Hou A    78.2  59   3  20  94 .063 .681 .015  1.94

that's some domination in the sally league. 94 strikeouts in 78 innings. and somehow he only allowed 3 home runs. i think it has something to do with mojo.

Career Pitching Statistics for Fernando Nieve:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2001 Martinsville App  19 Hou Rk   38.0  27   2  21  49 .130 .652 .022  3.79
2002 Martinsville App  20 Hou Rk   67.2  46   5  27  60 .098 .759 .026  2.39
2002 Lexington    SAL  20 Hou A     3.0   6   0   0   2 .000 .867 .000  6.00
2003 Lexington    SAL  21 Hou A   150.1 133  10  65 144 .100 .753 .023  3.65
2004 Salem        Caro 22 Hou A   149.0 136   9  40 117 .064 .799 .019  2.96
2004 Round Rock   Tex  22 Hou AA   17.1  12   0   8  17 .111 .734 .000  1.56
2005 Corpus Chris Tex  23 Hou AA   85.0  62   7  29  96 .084 .697 .032  2.65
2005 Round Rock   PCL  23 Hou AAA  82.0  92  10  33  75 .089 .778 .038  4.83

fernando nieve had a strong 2005, especially in double-a. 96 strikeouts in 85 innings is quality. but he was a little old for his level. also his control is a little shaky. like hirsh, he'll be useful, but not great.

Career Pitching Statistics for Jimmy Barthmaier:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2003 Martinsville App  19 Hou Rk   21.2  19   0   7  18 .077 .786 .000  2.49
2004 Greeneville  App  20 Hou Rk   69.0  70   3  22  65 .074 .765 .014  3.78
2005 Salem        Caro 21 Hou A     6.0   4   1   1   6 .043 .727 .063  1.50
2005 Lexington    SAL  21 Hou A   134.2 108   3  55 142 .097 .723 .008  2.27

barthmaier throws a curve ball, which is why he's so good at limiting home runs. i actually think he's got more upside than hirsh and nieve because he's got such a strength. it's much better to have one area of domination than many areas of decent quality. and his strikeouts are pretty damn good too. he's old for his level though. that seems to be a theme in the astros system. they don't want to rush their pitchers. i gotta say that's a good policy.

Career Batting Statistics for Eli Iorg:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2002 Samford U.   NCAA  0 0   NCA 164   8  35   0  13 .047 .787 .101 .296
2003 Samford U.   NCAA  0 0   NCA 164   8  35   0  13 .047 .787 .101 .296
2004 U. of Tennes NCAA  0 0   NCA 239  18  34   4  16 .070 .858 .098 .324
2005 U. of Tennes NCAA  0 0   NCA 258  25  29  15  23 .088 .888 .166 .381
2005 Greeneville  App   0 Hou Rk  138  13  27   7   9 .086 .804 .144 .333

our first position player. we don't have an age for eli iorg, but he's fresh out of college. his tennessee numbers last year look fantastic, but i'm wondering if that's due to altitude. anyway, if his power and contact in any way approach that line (.888 con .166 pow), he's a prospect.

Career Batting Statistics for Hunter Pence:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2003 U. of TexasA NCAA 20 0   NCA 241  25  35   8  21 .094 .855 .141 .347
2004 U. of TexasA NCAA 21 0   NCA 193  18  23   8  13 .085 .881 .124 .395
2004 Tri City     NYPL 21 Hou A   201  24  30   8  19 .107 .851 .158 .296
2005 Salem        Caro 22 Hou A   153  18  37   6   9 .105 .758 .129 .305
2005 Lexington    SAL  22 Hou A   302  39  53  25  17 .114 .825 .169 .338

another college outfielder. hunter pence looked good in college, and dominated low-a when he came out. then, in his first full year in the pros, he bashed middle-a and moved up to high-a. it remains to be seen how he'll adjust to the upper minors.

Career Pitching Statistics for Felipe Paulino:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2003 Martinsville App  19 Hou Rk   25.2  23   0  19  27 .160 .730 .000  5.61
2004 Greeneville  App  20 Hou Rk   32.0  30   4  22  37 .149 .706 .045  7.59
2005 Lexington    SAL  21 Hou A    24.1  21   2   6  30 .060 .681 .031  1.85
2005 Tri City     NYPL 21 Hou A    30.2  21   2  11  34 .089 .699 .025  3.82

the cube has him as felipe paulino. i don't know which name is correct, but these are some interesting numbers. the cons are very good. 34 strikeouts in 30 innings doesn't seem that good, but when you look at the hits, you realize that he didn't face that many batters in those 30 innings, and struck out a high percentage of them. that's the value of using contact percentage. also it seems like he limits home runs pretty well.

look at the walk percentages. his first two years, he couldn't find the plate. all of a sudden in 2005 he started throwing strikes. he's one to watch. he's old for his level, but he could do some things.

Career Pitching Statistics for Juan Gutierrez:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2003 Martinsville App  20 Hou Rk   34.0  42   2  13  30 .083 .792 .018  4.76
2004 Greeneville  App  21 Hou Rk   65.2  74   4  30  59 .100 .782 .019  3.70
2005 Salem        Caro 22 Hou A    12.0  10   1   8   9 .148 .804 .027  3.00
2005 Lexington    SAL  22 Hou A   120.2 106  10  43 100 .084 .786 .027  3.21

i'm not sure why juan gutierrez is on this list. he's decent in all areas, but he's old for his level, so it's hard to see him being effective in the majors. he's probably a smart pitcher who works hard. scouts are a sucker for that shit.

Career Pitching Statistics for Brian Bogusevic:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl    IP   H  HR  BB  SO  WAL  CON  HRP   ERA
2003 Tulane U.    NCAA  0 0   NCA  34.1  38   1  12  26 .078 .816 .009  3.41
2004 Tulane U.    NCAA  0 0   NCA 111.2 128   9  25  84 .051 .819 .024  4.19
2005 Tulane U.    NCAA  0 0   NCA 130.1 130   5  42 129 .075 .752 .013  3.25
2005 Tri City     NYPL  0 Hou A    21.1  30   2   9  17 .087 .819 .026  7.59

ok. bogusevic is a lefty college pitcher who debuted last year. it looks like he limits home runs, but his strikeout and walk numbers are not good enough to project him to the majors.

Career Batting Statistics for Josh Flores:
Year Team         Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB   W   K  HR  23  WAL  CON  POW  AVG
2005 Greeneville  App   0 Hou Rk  248  20  57   8  17 .075 .770 .131 .335
2005 Lexington    SAL   0 Hou A    18   1   4   0   2 .053 .778 .143 .278

josh flores is apparently the fastest baserunner in the organization. that and his age is enough to make him a prospect, but it remains to be seen if he'll develop any strike-zone skills. he does have some power.

so that's the astros. it looks like they have a strong program, with a policy of taking care of players, and not rushing them. i'm sure that's a key reason for their success in developing pitchers who aren't tall. but there aren't any superkillers here, so overall the system is slightly below average.
- posted by julien @ 10:21 AM