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Tuesday, January 03, 2006
 
snakes in the grass
looking at a blog called mlb update i came across a link to a fox sports article that discusses the future of the arizona diamondbacks. the claim is the future is bright.

the following lineup is put forward as a possibility in "2007 or so":


C Miguel Montero
1B Conor Jackson
2B Orlando Hudson
3B Justin Upton
SS Stephen Drew
LF Carlos Gonzalez
CF Chris Young
RF Charles Quentin


there is also mention of dustin nippert and garret mock, who i presume are pitchers. nippert is. mock we'll see. let's go!


Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2001 Dominican Di Dsl 19 Ari Rk 118 17 19 1 6 .126 .839 .071 .220
2002 Missoula Pio 20 Ari Rk 155 20 26 3 11 .114 .832 .109 .263
2003 Missoula Pio 21 Ari Rk 199 17 15 4 12 .079 .925 .087 .301
2004 South Bend Midw 22 Ari A 407 42 74 11 24 .094 .818 .105 .263
2005 Lancaster Cali 23 Ari A 355 26 52 24 25 .068 .854 .162 .349
2005 Tennessee Sou 23 Ari AA 108 7 26 2 3 .061 .759 .061 .250


miguel montero turns 24 this year. he *did* murder the california league last year, but it's a-ball, which makes him old for his level. the career path starts to look a lot like miguel olivo, who, it turns out, is not good:


Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
1997 Dominican At Dsl 19 Oak Rk 221 34 36 6 15 .133 .837 .114 .271
1998 Azl Athletic Ariz 20 Oak Rk 164 8 43 2 14 .047 .738 .132 .311
1999 Modesto Cali 21 Oak A 243 21 60 9 19 .080 .753 .153 .305
2000 Modesto Cali 22 Oak A 229 18 53 5 16 .073 .769 .119 .282
2000 Midland Tex 22 Oak AA 59 5 15 1 2 .078 .746 .068 .237
2002 Birmingham Sou 24 Chw AA 362 45 66 6 34 .111 .818 .135 .306
2002 Chi White So AL 24 Chw MLB 19 2 5 1 1 .095 .737 .143 .211
2003 Chi White So AL 25 Chw MLB 319 23 80 6 20 .067 .749 .109 .237
2004 Everett Nwes 26 Sea A 6 0 2 0 0 .000 .667 .000 .000
2004 Seattle Mari AL 26 Sea MLB 160 13 55 6 10 .075 .656 .152 .200
2004 Chi White So AL 26 Chw MLB 142 10 29 7 9 .066 .796 .142 .270
2005 Tacoma PCL 27 Sea AAA 90 7 19 3 5 .072 .789 .113 .233
2005 Seattle Mari AL 27 Sea MLB 153 4 49 5 4 .025 .680 .087 .151
2005 San Diego Pa NL 27 Sd MLB 116 7 31 4 8 .057 .733 .141 .304


at 24, he beat up the southern league pretty bad, but he was old for his level and never able to develop the contact necessary to succeed.

montero does show the possibility of contact. his .854 in lancaster is a good number, especially when combined with a .162 pow. but he was unable to do anything like that in aa. he'll have to murder double-a this year to be considered any kind of a prospect.

now we have conor jackson:


Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2001 U. of Califo NCAA 19 0 NCA 234 40 30 4 11 .146 .872 .074 .288
2002 U. of Califo NCAA 20 0 NCA 222 34 26 16 18 .133 .883 .173 .382
2003 U. of Califo NCAA 21 0 NCA 165 58 22 10 15 .260 .867 .175 .388
2003 Yakima Nwes 21 Ari A 259 41 41 6 36 .137 .842 .193 .319
2004 Lancaster Cali 22 Ari A 265 48 36 11 21 .153 .864 .140 .345
2004 El Paso Tex 22 Ari AA 230 26 36 6 15 .102 .843 .108 .301
2005 Tucson PCL 23 Ari AAA 333 69 32 8 40 .172 .904 .159 .354
2005 Az Diamondba NL 23 Ari MLB 86 13 11 2 3 .131 .872 .067 .200


this kid is a superkiller. in tucson last year he posted incredible strike zone numbers, and strong power. then he moved to the majors and still walked and made contact. the power will come. the domination will be complete.

look at those numbers! he has dominated in all areas at every level. i traded mark prior for him in my keeper league last year. i may be crazy.

next is orlando hudson:


Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
1998 Medicine Hat Pio 20 Tor Rk 242 22 36 8 19 .083 .851 .131 .293
1999 Hagerstown SAL 21 Tor A 513 42 85 7 42 .076 .834 .114 .267
2000 Dunedin FSL 22 Tor A 359 39 42 7 18 .098 .883 .079 .285
2000 Tennessee Sou 22 Tor AA 136 17 18 2 7 .111 .868 .076 .239
2001 Tennessee Sou 23 Tor AA 308 40 42 4 30 .115 .864 .128 .307
2001 Syracuse IL 23 Tor AAA 197 25 34 4 17 .113 .827 .129 .304
2002 Syracuse IL 24 Tor AAA 418 39 54 10 30 .085 .871 .110 .305
2002 Toronto Blue AL 24 Tor MLB 194 13 27 4 15 .063 .861 .114 .276
2003 Toronto Blue AL 25 Tor MLB 477 44 87 9 27 .084 .818 .092 .268
2004 Toronto Blue AL 26 Tor MLB 493 55 98 12 39 .100 .801 .129 .270
2005 Toronto Blue AL 27 Tor MLB 468 33 65 10 30 .066 .861 .099 .271


hudson makes great contact, and is mediocre at wal and pow. if he somehow finds some power in his age 28 season, he could blow up. but it's not likely. he'll probably continue to be a skilled but not destructive hitter. which is not all bad. he'll be quite useful against strikeout pitchers. his season totals won't be impressive, because he won't be padding his numbers against soft-tossers. but he'll hit when it counts.

the articles in question also mention hudson's fielding. how good is he? he's fucking insane. clay davenport has him at 63 runs above average in 454 career games. those are mazeroski numbers. with his fielding and contact hitting hudson will have a lot of value in low-run environments. he will add a lot of wins. enough to make him a strong contributor.

hudson was traded for troy glaus. mlb update indicates that glaus is a poor fielder. it's true that while he was good early in his career, he has been replacement level the last three years. perhaps the injuries have had an effect. regardless, his bat will make up for any sub-optimal defense.

the fox guy talks about two trades. made by the diamondbacks. but he doesn't mention one of the players involved. why doesn't he? well the point of the article is that the diamondbacks are acquiring prospects. but here is a prospect they're trading. i'm talking about sergio santos, a shortstop who hit double-a at the age of 20. the following year he hit for power, then he went to triple-a.


Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 Missoula Pio 19 Ari Rk 205 32 49 9 21 .135 .761 .192 .272
2003 Lancaster Cali 20 Ari A 344 45 64 8 15 .116 .814 .082 .287
2003 El Paso Tex 20 Ari AA 139 8 25 2 8 .054 .820 .088 .255
2004 El Paso Tex 21 Ari AA 349 27 89 11 24 .072 .745 .135 .282
2005 Tucson PCL 22 Ari AAA 490 34 108 12 24 .065 .780 .094 .239


he's young, but he needs to show something in 2006 to stay on track as a prospect. i don't know about his defense, but i presume it's good if they move him up this quick. it'd be nice to see him take some pitches, like he did when he was young. err . . . younger. but he's definitely got a shot. which makes him a good pickup.

the diamondbacks traded him because they don't need a shortstop. they've got stephen drew. wow, what a good segueway!


Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 Florida Stat NCAA 0 0 NCA 207 23 30 16 19 .100 .855 .198 .402
2004 Florida Stat NCAA 0 0 NCA 228 49 44 17 21 .177 .807 .207 .344
2005 Lancaster Cali 0 Ari A 149 26 25 10 19 .149 .832 .234 .389
2005 Tennessee Sou 0 Ari AA 101 12 24 4 5 .106 .762 .117 .218


well, he hit the shit out of the ball at florida state. then, he hit the shit out of the ball in lancaster. this year, he'll hit the shit out of the ball in double-a. he's 22. he's jd drew's little brother.

we skipped third base to make that segueway work. but here's another segueway: continuing the younger brothers theme, justin upton is the younger brother of bj! also, in both cases, the older brother is known by his initials.

here are some other articles about upton. the gist is he's got incredible talent, probably a better hitter than bj, probably not as good a fielder. some say he's more suited for center field because his arm isn't as accurate. but it's strong. a cannon. he was the first pick of the draft. he hasn't signed yet.

i'm sure he's talented but 2007 is not very likely. that only gives him one year in the minors. let's give him a minute and see where it goes. give him a chance to find a position. besides, they have chad tracy at third, and he's a crusher.

i am not kidding:


Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2001 Yakima Nwes 21 Ari A 36 4 5 0 1 .100 .861 .032 .278
2001 South Bend Midw 21 Ari A 218 21 19 4 11 .088 .913 .075 .340
2002 El Paso Tex 22 Ari AA 515 45 51 8 44 .080 .901 .112 .344
2003 Tucson PCL 23 Ari AAA 531 45 52 10 35 .078 .902 .094 .324
2004 Tucson PCL 24 Ari AAA 41 8 5 2 4 .163 .878 .167 .400
2004 Az Diamondba NL 24 Ari MLB 486 45 60 8 32 .085 .877 .094 .285
2005 Az Diamondba NL 25 Ari MLB 509 43 78 27 38 .078 .847 .151 .308


no one really talked about him in the minors, but he had great numbers. his contact percentages were incredible. that always leads to smooth transitions. now that he's 25, he's developing power. he'll murder the ball over the next few years.

and he's cheap as hell.

what do we got left we got outfielders. i'll take a break, come back and nail this down.
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