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Saturday, January 07, 2006
 
rookies to watch
aaron gleeman has an article on rotoworld about rookies who will have an impact in 2006. here i am with stats and comments.


Keeping tabs on prospects is one of the most enjoyable aspects to playing fantasy baseball. However, while it’s crucial to simply build talent and acquire the best prospects you can in keeper-league situations, one-year leagues require a slightly different strategy. Not only do you need to target the best available young talent, you have to identify which prospects figure to have major impacts in the big leagues for the entire season.

In other words, Delmon Young might be the best prospect in baseball right now, but he won’t do your fantasy team a ton of good in 2006 if he spend most of the year knocking around Triple-A pitching. At the same time, lesser prospects who don’t have nearly as much talent or long-term potential could be much more valuable strictly for 2006 because they’re in line for everyday playing time coming right out of spring training.


delmon young is a good prospect.


Career Batting Statistics for Delmon Young:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2004 Charleston S SAL 18 Tb A 519 59 120 25 31 .102 .769 .140 .320
2005 Montgomery Sou 19 Tb AA 330 25 66 20 17 .070 .800 .140 .336
2005 Durham IL 19 Tb AAA 228 4 33 6 16 .017 .855 .113 .285


his contact is fantastic. it's amazing that he hits that many pitches, actually, because he swings at almost everything. hopefully he'll walk more. also, power will not be a problem. 59 extra-base hits in aa and aaa at the age of 19. he will crush major-league pitching.


Below you’ll find the American League rookies to watch for 2006. While they may not all be among the elite prospects in baseball, they’re all solid young players and, perhaps most importantly, they all figure to play key roles for their teams in 2006. While filling your roster with these guys on draft day is a risky proposition, peppering a few of them in as late-round sleepers has the potential to pay off big.

Brian Anderson | Center Field | Chicago White Sox

Already this offseason the White Sox have traded away their starting center fielder, Aaron Rowand, and one of their top prospects, Chris Young. Both moves were made in order to hand Brian Anderson the everyday in center field both now and in the future. Choosing Anderson over Rowand as the center fielder of the present and choosing Anderson over Young as the center fielder of the future are each fairly debatable decisions.

However, at the very least Anderson is cheaper and younger than Rowand and closer to being major-league ready than Young. Anderson doesn’t project as an offensive star, but he does everything pretty well. He hits for solid batting averages, draws a reasonable number of walks, has some power, and can even do a little running. Anderson hit .295/.360/.469 with 16 homers, 43 total extra-base hits, and 44 walks in 118 games at Triple-A in 2005, and should be able to hit around .270 with 15-18 homers and a handful of steals playing every day for the White Sox in 2006.



Career Batting Statistics for Brian Anderson:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 U. of Arizon NCAA 20 0 NCA 162 28 31 5 4 .147 .809 .069 .275
2003 U. of Arizon NCAA 21 0 NCA 235 26 42 14 20 .100 .821 .176 .366
2003 Great Falls Pio 21 Chw Rk 49 10 10 2 3 .169 .796 .128 .388
2004 WinstonSalem Caro 22 Chw A 255 32 44 8 26 .111 .827 .161 .319
2004 Birmingham Sou 22 Chw AA 186 22 30 4 12 .106 .839 .103 .270
2005 Charlotte IL 23 Chw AAA 448 44 115 16 27 .089 .743 .129 .295
2005 Chi White So AL 23 Chw MLB 34 0 12 2 1 .000 .647 .136 .176


gleeman seems hopelessly optimistic here. brian anderson hasn't even demonstrated the ability to hit triple-a. he did well in a-ball in 2004, but that's a long way off from the show. contact is a serious concern. he's at that age where it needs to start showing up.

2006 will be a crucial year in the determination of anderson's future. if he plays in the majors, he his more likely to hit .240 than .270. where does gleeman get that number? out of thin air? not only did anderson strike out too much, he also didn't walk enough.

if he can get his strike zone skills under control, power should take care of itself. but that's a big if.

also a major league season for anderson would likely feature less than 10 home runs.


Kenji Jojima | Catcher | Seattle Mariners

Kenji Jojima is a rookie by MLB standards, but he is actually a 30-year-old veteran with 11 years of big-league experience over in Japan. One of the best catchers in Japanese baseball history, Jojima hit .309/.381/.557 with 24 homers in 2005 and .338/.432/.655 with 36 homers in 2004. He has a .299 career batting average and 211 homers in 1,117 games, including five straight 20-homer seasons and a monster .330-34-119 year in 2003.

Of course, those big numbers deflate pretty quickly once you begin to adjust for American competition. While it’s impossible to tell exactly how Jojima will adjust, if his numbers suffer similar drops to those experienced by Ichiro Suzuki, Hideki Matsui, Kazuo Matsui, and Tadahito Iguchi, he looks like a .275 hitter with 15-homer power. That’s still very valuable in a catcher, which is why he could end up being one of this season’s best fantasy sleepers.



Career Batting Statistics for Kenji Johjima:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
1995 Fukuoka Jap 19 0 Int 12 1 4 0 0 .077 .667 .000 .167
1996 Fukuoka Jap 20 0 Int 58 4 9 4 2 .065 .845 .122 .241
1997 Fukuoka Jap 21 0 Int 439 27 62 15 26 .058 .859 .109 .308
1998 Fukuoka Jap 22 0 Int 399 35 67 16 19 .081 .832 .105 .251
1999 Fukuoka Jap 23 0 Int 494 39 61 17 34 .073 .877 .118 .306
2000 Fukuoka Jap 24 0 Int 304 33 48 9 24 .098 .842 .129 .310
2001 Fukuoka Jap 25 0 Int 536 37 55 31 18 .065 .897 .102 .258
2002 Fukuoka Jap 26 0 Int 422 38 41 25 18 .083 .903 .113 .293
2003 Fukuoka Jap 27 0 Int 558 68 50 34 41 .109 .910 .148 .330
2004 Daiei Jap 28 0 Int 426 71 45 36 26 .143 .894 .163 .338
2005 fsh jap 29 0 int 413 49 32 24 26 .106 .923 .131 .309


.275 this time. five points better than anderson. that's some precision prognostication! ok the sarcasm's a little thick. but this time the prediction seems reasonable. jojima makes great contact. or is it johjima? i don't know.

contact aside, it's clear that kenji is past his peak. 2005 looks more like 2002 than 2003 or 2004. his home run production is more likely to be 10 than 15.


Jeff Mathis | Catcher | Los Angeles Angels

Another rookie catcher who figures to get regular playing time unless the Angels surprisingly decide to re-sign Bengie Molina at the last minute, Jeff Mathis doesn’t have quite as much offensive potential as Jojima. Or at least he doesn’t for 2006. Mathis hit .276/.340/.499 with 21 homers in 112 games at Triple-A in 2005, but Arkansas is a hitter’s ballpark in a hitter’s league, which makes those numbers less impressive than they look on the surface.

Mathis should have little trouble coming up with above-average power for the position, but he will likely struggle to post a good batting average. He strikes out quite a bit (85 times in 427 at-bats this year, 100 times in 426 at-bats last year) and has hit just .253 since advancing to Double-A in the middle of 2003. He’s a much better option in keeper leagues, but Mathis will be a cheap source of power at a tough position in 2006 if you can live with a batting average south of .250.



Career Batting Statistics for Jeff Mathis:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2001 Provo Pio 18 Ana Rk 80 13 13 0 9 .140 .838 .134 .299
2002 Cedar Rapids Midw 19 Ana A 499 48 75 10 44 .088 .850 .127 .287
2003 Rancho Cucam Cali 20 Ana A 382 40 74 11 31 .095 .806 .136 .323
2003 Arkansas Tex 20 Ana AA 97 13 16 2 11 .118 .835 .160 .284
2004 Arkansas Tex 21 Ana AA 430 54 100 14 27 .112 .767 .124 .223
2005 Salt Lake PCL 22 Laa AAA 427 42 85 21 29 .090 .801 .146 .276
2005 Los Angeles AL 22 Laa MLB 3 0 1 0 0 .000 .667 .000 .333


i'm a big fan of jeff mathis. i have him in my keeper league. he's a high-quality producer at a young age. and he's a catcher. that's hard to find. course, he's no dioner navarro. but who is. besides brian mccann.

south of .250, is, i think, slightly pessimistic in this case. it could easily happen, but it could also easily happen that jeff takes off and has a breakout season. he's already made vast gains at every stop.

we'll have to wait and see. but with that kind of production at such a young age, the future is bright.

there are a lot of catchers in this article. catcher does seem to be the position of flux these days. a lot of starters are getting old. the youth is arriving.

this is a good time to bring up jarrod saltalamacchia. in addition to having an incredible name, he's got lots of talent.


Career Batting Statistics for Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2003 GCL Braves GCL 18 Atl Rk 134 31 33 2 13 .188 .754 .149 .239
2004 Rome SAL 23 Atl A 326 39 83 10 21 .107 .745 .128 .272
2005 Myrtle Beach Caro 20 Atl A 459 57 99 19 36 .110 .784 .153 .314


that age 20 season in a-ball compares favorably with jeff mathis. a little less contact, a little more power. and an encouraging 57 walks. also impressive is the way he aged from 18 to 23, then back down to 20.


Chris Ray | Reliever | Baltimore Orioles

Chris Ray was very quietly one of the top relievers in baseball after the All-Star break, finishing the year with a 2.66 ERA and 43-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40.2 innings. He sneaks in under the wire as a rookie for 2006 thanks to spending the beginning of the year at Double-A, where he saved 18 games with a 0.96 ERA and 40-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 37.1 innings while holding opponents to a miniscule .140 batting average.

At worst Ray figures to be among the American League’s top middle relievers in 2006, and there’s a very good chance that he will emerge as the Orioles’ closer by the second half. He has overpowering stuff and a near-flawless track record in the minors, and certainly showed in 2005 that he can already get the job done against big-league hitters. At just 24, Ray should be near the top of any list of future closers to go after in keeper leagues and he’s a sleeper with tons of upside for 2006.



Career Pitching Statistics for Chris Ray:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 College of W NCAA 21 0 NCA 94.2 87 6 22 87 .056 .765 .021 3.52
2003 Aberdeen NYPL 21 Bal A 38.1 32 0 10 44 .064 .701 .000 2.82
2004 Frederick Caro 22 Bal A 73.1 82 6 20 74 .062 .755 .026 3.80
2004 Delmarva SAL 22 Bal A 50.0 43 3 17 46 .081 .762 .020 3.42
2005 Bowie East 23 Bal AA 37.1 17 3 7 40 .051 .690 .034 0.96
2005 Baltimore Or AL 23 Bal MLB 40.2 34 5 18 43 .103 .724 .044 2.66


this kid is good. look at that aa line: 17 hits allowed. obviously he got lucky, but that's ridiculous! he was very effective in the majors. we can expect the walk rate to go down in 2006. very talented.


Jason Kubel | Right Field | Minnesota Twins

The Twins seemed prepared to hand Jason Kubel a starting job heading into 2005, but he suffered a massive knee injury while playing in the Arizona Fall League and ended up missing the entire season. There is still some uncertainty surrounding his status leading up to spring training, but Kubel has been cleared to resume all baseball activities and the hope in Minnesota is that he can compete with Michael Cuddyer and Lew Ford for the job in right field.

Assuming Kubel is close to healthy, he’s almost lock to play regularly for the offense-starved Twins. He was the team’s minor-league player of the year in 2004, hitting .347 with 24 homers and 17 steals between Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors, and impressed manager Ron Gardenhire so much that he found his way onto the playoff roster despite just 60 late-season at-bats. Keep an eye on his health status as Opening Day gets closer, and if it sounds like Kubel is all the way back grab him up.



Career Batting Statistics for Jason Kubel:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2000 GCL Twins GCL 18 Min Rk 79 11 9 0 5 .122 .886 .071 .282
2001 GCL Twins GCL 19 Min Rk 126 21 14 1 14 .143 .889 .134 .331
2002 Quad City Midw 20 Min A 427 42 48 17 30 .090 .888 .124 .321
2003 Fort Myers FSL 21 Min A 433 49 54 5 24 .102 .875 .077 .298
2004 New Britain East 22 Min AA 139 20 19 6 18 .126 .863 .200 .377
2004 Rochester IL 22 Min AAA 354 35 40 16 28 .090 .887 .140 .343
2004 Minnesota Tw AL 22 Min MLB 61 6 9 2 2 .090 .852 .077 .300


kubel was a mutherfucker in 2004. he made great contact and had good power. his entire minor-league career is marked by strong strike zone skills. patience and contact. that is the foundation. then the body adds muscle, and the power takes charge.

if kubel hasn't lost anything in the injury, he'll be just fine. more than fine. who knows what rust there'll be, but over the next few years he'll be hitting lots of singles, doubles, and homers. come 2010, he'll be one of the league's top performers.


Other American League Rookies to Watch in 2006: Ian Kinsler (Second Base, Texas Rangers), Jon Papelbon (Starter, Boston Red Sox), Guillermo Quiroz (Catcher, Toronto Blue Jays), Craig Hansen (Reliever, Boston Red Sox), Hayden Penn (Starter, Baltimore Orioles)



Career Batting Statistics for Ian Kinsler:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 Arizona Stat NCAA 20 0 NCA 63 2 10 0 2 .031 .841 .038 .230
2003 U. of Missou NCAA 21 0 NCA 200 31 27 6 17 .134 .865 .133 .335
2003 Spokane Nwes 21 Tex A 192 24 34 1 16 .111 .823 .108 .277
2004 Clinton Midw 22 Tex A 226 28 36 11 31 .110 .841 .221 .402
2004 Frisco Tex 22 Tex AA 272 47 47 8 21 .147 .827 .129 .299
2005 Oklahoma PCL 23 Tex AAA 530 53 89 23 30 .091 .832 .120 .274


ok. kinsler is a decent prospect, but he doesn't figure to perform in 2006. maybe he will. he has progressed quickly. is this why they traded soriano? i guess so. i would expect about a .250 average, with 10--15 home runs in the majors, but he's gonna make it. hitting in texas will ease the transition.


Career Pitching Statistics for Jon Papelbon:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 Mississippi NCAA 22 0 NCA 47.1 41 3 14 54 .071 .705 .023 2.28
2003 Mississippi NCAA 22 0 NCA 47.1 41 3 14 54 .071 .705 .023 2.28
2003 Lowell NYPL 22 Bos A 32.2 43 2 9 36 .060 .745 .019 6.34
2004 Sarasota FSL 23 Bos A 129.2 97 6 43 153 .081 .685 .018 2.64
2005 Portland East 24 Bos AA 87.0 59 9 23 83 .067 .741 .038 2.48
2005 Pawtucket IL 24 Bos AAA 27.2 21 2 3 27 .028 .740 .026 2.93
2005 Boston Red S AL 24 Bos MLB 34.0 33 4 17 34 .112 .748 .040 2.65


papelbon's wal and con were incredible in the minors. his con in the majors was pretty damn good too. it shouldn't be a problem to reduce those walks. up-and-comer. an up-and-comer is a likely star.


Career Batting Statistics for Guillermo Quiroz:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
1999 Medicine Hat Pio 17 Tor Rk 208 22 55 9 7 .096 .736 .105 .221
2000 Queens NYPL 18 Tor A 196 27 48 5 9 .121 .755 .095 .224
2000 Hagerstown SAL 18 Tor A 136 20 44 1 4 .128 .676 .054 .162
2001 Charleston S SAL 19 Tor A 261 29 67 7 12 .100 .743 .098 .199
2002 Dunedin FSL 20 Tor A 414 44 91 12 29 .096 .780 .127 .260
2002 Syracuse IL 20 Tor AAA 45 3 14 1 4 .063 .689 .161 .222
2003 New Haven East 21 Tor AA 376 57 83 20 27 .132 .779 .160 .282
2004 Syracuse IL 22 Tor AAA 257 31 54 8 20 .108 .790 .138 .227
2004 Toronto Blue AL 22 Tor MLB 53 4 8 0 2 .070 .849 .044 .212
2005 Dunedin FSL 23 Tor A 38 2 8 2 1 .050 .789 .100 .237
2005 Syracuse IL 23 Tor AAA 83 9 19 6 3 .098 .771 .141 .229
2005 Toronto Blue AL 23 Tor MLB 36 3 13 0 2 .077 .639 .087 .194


we don't have much data. many data. pre-2004 i rated guillermo quiroz very highly. i still think he's gonna make it. but he needs to play.

quiroz reminds me of jeremy brown, who everyone's forgotten about.


Career Batting Statistics for Jeremy Brown:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 U. of Alabam NCAA 22 0 NCA 223 79 25 11 19 .262 .888 .152 .320
2002 Visalia Cali 22 Oak A 188 46 49 10 14 .197 .739 .173 .310
2002 Vancouver Nwes 22 Oak A 28 11 5 0 1 .282 .821 .043 .286
2003 Midland Tex 23 Oak AA 234 44 38 5 11 .158 .838 .082 .275
2004 Midland Tex 24 Oak AA 448 75 80 6 27 .143 .821 .090 .256
2005 Midland Tex 25 Oak AA 394 52 88 20 28 .117 .777 .157 .261


he's getting old, but he keeps improving. he's finally hitting for power in double-a. his contact slipped a little, but i think he'll get it back. he's shown great patience throughout his career. i still think he's gonna make it.

last two then we post.


Career Pitching Statistics for Craig Hansen:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2005 St. Johns U. NCAA 0 0 NCA 64.1 38 1 20 85 .080 .632 .007 1.68
2005 Boston Red S AL 0 Bos MLB 3.0 6 1 1 3 .063 .800 .083 6.00


well this list is incomplete. the age is missing, and it doesn't include any minor league experience. he must have done something in the minors, right? anyway, it's safe to say this guy's a talent. he struck out an obscene number of batters in college, and he pitched in the majors that same year. expect good things.


Career Pitching Statistics for Hayden Penn:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl IP H HR BB SO WAL CON HRP ERA
2003 Bluefield App 18 Bal Rk 52.1 58 4 19 38 .081 .823 .023 4.30
2003 GCL Orioles GCL 18 Bal Rk 3.1 3 0 1 4 .071 .692 .000 2.70
2004 Frederick Caro 19 Bal A 73.1 59 7 20 61 .067 .781 .032 3.80
2004 Delmarva SAL 19 Bal A 43.1 30 4 19 41 .106 .744 .034 3.32
2004 Bowie East 19 Bal AA 20.1 22 0 9 20 .098 .759 .000 4.87
2005 Bowie East 20 Bal AA 110.1 101 11 37 120 .079 .722 .035 3.83
2005 Baltimore Or AL 20 Bal MLB 38.1 46 6 21 18 .115 .888 .042 6.34


he made the majors at 20. that's impressive. he tore the shit out of the minors. barring injury, hayden penn will succeed in the majors.

well, that's it! lots of catchers, and some high-quality pitchers. not much else though. jason kubel's got a shot. more than a shot.
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