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Sunday, January 08, 2006
 
mike morse, j-rod, and the devil rays
scanning through baseballblogs.org i noticed these posts:

the first one is a blog about minor league research. it's hopelessly arcane, which is hot, and highly professional, which is also hot.

the next one is, i don't know, some stuff about win shares. i haven't read it. the blog title arouses my antipathy, as readers might guess. a lot of people who call themselves sabermetricians think they know more than a lot of people who know a lot about baseball. that was a hopelessly watered-down sentence designed to express my feeling that sabermetricians are pompous assholes. i'm a pompous asshole but i pretend i'm joking.

then we have an article about mike morse. apparently he's being moved from short to left. a while back i predicted success for him. let's take a closer look.


Career Batting Statistics for Mike Morse:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2000 Azl White So Ariz 18 Chw Rk 185 16 29 2 7 .080 .843 .058 .256
2002 Kannapolis SAL 20 Chw A 419 33 73 2 34 .073 .826 .104 .257
2003 WinstonSalem Caro 21 Chw A 434 32 91 10 32 .069 .790 .122 .245
2004 San Antonio Tex 22 Sea AA 159 13 27 6 11 .076 .830 .129 .274
2004 Birmingham Sou 22 Chw AA 210 16 46 11 14 .071 .781 .152 .287
2005 Tacoma PCL 23 Sea AAA 182 16 36 4 14 .081 .802 .123 .253
2005 Seattle Mari AL 23 Sea MLB 232 26 50 3 11 .101 .784 .077 .278


he held his own in the majors at the age of 23. that is extremely positive. seeing as how he figures to improve for five consecutive years, he should be pretty good, when all is said and done. power should develop. he had it in the minors.

but i gotta say if he has the ability to play shortstop, and he's playing left field, that's a big loss in value. in left, his hitting won't be anything special. at short, it would be.

he was acquired in the freddy garcia trade, with jeremy reed and miguel olivo. the white sox just love to give away prospects.

the mariners have an embarrassment of riches at shortstop. but that's about all they have.


Team Batting Statistics for 2005 Seattle Mariners:
Name Team Age AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
Ichiro Suzuki sea 31 685 52 66 15 33 .071 .904 .078 .303
Raul Ibanez sea 33 617 73 99 20 34 .106 .840 .104 .280
Adrian Beltre sea 26 607 43 108 19 37 .066 .822 .112 .255
Richie Sexson sea 30 561 95 167 39 37 .145 .702 .193 .263
Jeremy Reed sea 24 490 50 74 3 36 .093 .849 .094 .254
Randy Winn sea 31 389 41 53 6 26 .095 .864 .095 .275
Bret Boone sea 36 274 27 52 7 18 .090 .810 .113 .231
Willie Bloomquist sea 27 251 12 38 0 17 .046 .849 .080 .257
Mike Morse sea 23 232 26 50 3 11 .101 .784 .077 .278
Yuniesky Betancourt sea 23 213 13 24 1 16 .058 .887 .090 .256
Jose Lopez sea 21 192 10 25 2 19 .050 .870 .126 .247
Miguel Olivo sea 27 153 4 49 5 4 .025 .680 .087 .151
Greg Dobbs sea 27 144 9 25 1 8 .059 .826 .076 .246
Wilson Valdez sea 27 126 6 25 0 6 .045 .802 .059 .198
Pat Borders sea 42 118 5 22 1 5 .041 .814 .063 .197
Yorvit Torrealba sea 27 108 8 25 2 4 .069 .769 .072 .241
Dave Hansen sea 36 77 9 19 2 0 .105 .753 .034 .173


well they have jeremy reed, who's about to blow up. they have ichiro, of course, but i'm talking about young players. actually the mariners lineup looks pretty good for 2006.

suzuki reed beltre sexson ibanez johjima morse lopez betancourt something like that. i guess ibanez will dh. is beltre gonna show up? what happened to him?

oh yeah jesus they have carl everett too. what a terrible idea.

here's their roster. i don't know who rene rivera is.


Career Batting Statistics for Rene Rivera:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 Everett Nwes 19 Sea A 230 25 38 1 19 .098 .835 .104 .242
2003 Wisconsin Midw 20 Sea A 412 45 81 9 19 .098 .803 .085 .275
2004 Inland Empir Cali 21 Sea A 383 37 70 6 23 .088 .817 .093 .235
2004 Tacoma PCL 21 Sea AAA 15 0 3 1 1 .000 .800 .167 .400
2004 Seattle Mari AL 21 Sea MLB 3 0 1 0 0 .000 .667 .000 .000
2005 San Antonio Tex 22 Sea AA 212 7 35 2 15 .032 .835 .096 .278
2005 Tacoma PCL 22 Sea AAA 49 2 12 1 3 .039 .755 .108 .204
2005 Seattle Mari AL 22 Sea MLB 48 1 11 1 3 .020 .771 .108 .396


he's young. he's got potential. i expect he'll play in aaa. it would be a waste to use a 23-year-old as a backup.

but this article is about shortstops. see, the mariners have three. morse, it looks like they're moving to left. that's because of yuniesky betancourt.


Career Batting Statistics for Yuniesky Betancourt:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2005 San Antonio Tex 23 Sea AA 227 9 18 5 13 .038 .921 .086 .273
2005 Tacoma PCL 23 Sea AAA 183 6 14 2 15 .032 .923 .101 .295
2005 Seattle Mari AL 23 Sea MLB 213 13 24 1 16 .058 .887 .090 .256


that's not much data. but it's enough to know he makes contact. ridiculous contact. ichiro contact. except ichiro swings while he's running. but you don't have to hit like ichiro to play in the major leagues. that's a good thing for all the non-ichiros.

yeah so betancourt is good enough with the bat to justify his existence. but the real value, they say, is his glove. there's no statistcal evidence yet, but i believe it.

so betancourt's an asset. the third shortstop is jose lopez. he's the best hitter of the bunch.


Career Batting Statistics for Jose Lopez:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
2002 San Bernardi Cali 18 Sea A 526 32 45 8 44 .057 .914 .108 .324
2003 San Antonio Tex 19 Sea AA 544 37 56 13 37 .064 .897 .102 .258
2004 Azl Mariners Ariz 20 Sea Rk 13 2 1 0 1 .133 .923 .083 .167
2004 Tacoma PCL 20 Sea AAA 279 22 30 13 19 .073 .892 .129 .295
2004 Seattle Mari AL 20 Sea MLB 208 9 31 5 13 .041 .851 .102 .232
2005 Tacoma PCL 21 Sea AAA 182 8 25 5 19 .042 .863 .153 .319
2005 Seattle Mari AL 21 Sea MLB 192 10 25 2 19 .050 .870 .126 .247


the contact is retarded, the power is there . . . all he needs is a little patience. and he's only 21. he's gonna play second base.

somehow the comment on mariners shortstops turned into a discussion of their entire lineup. but that's cool.

the next article i read is about j-rod. aka john rodriguez. it suggests that he should be a starter in the outfield.

j-rod's a likeable guy. so the sentiment is understandable. but the question is: does he have the talent to be a regular?


Career Batting Statistics for John Rodriguez:
Year Team Lg. Age Org Lvl AAB W K HR 23 WAL CON POW AVG
1997 GCL Yankees GCL 19 Nyy Rk 157 30 32 3 12 .160 .796 .120 .299
1998 Greensboro SAL 20 Nyy A 408 64 93 10 22 .136 .772 .102 .252
1999 GCL Yankees GCL 21 Nyy Rk 7 3 0 0 1 .300 1.00 .143 .286
1999 Tampa FSL 21 Nyy A 269 41 52 8 17 .132 .807 .115 .305
2000 Tampa FSL 22 Nyy A 362 48 81 16 16 .117 .776 .114 .268
2000 Norwich East 22 Nyy AA 56 9 22 1 4 .138 .607 .147 .196
2001 GCL Yankees GCL 23 Nyy Rk 6 0 0 0 0 .000 1.00 .000 .833
2001 Norwich East 23 Nyy AA 395 37 117 22 32 .086 .704 .194 .285
2002 Norwich East 24 Nyy AA 358 46 94 15 21 .114 .737 .136 .215
2003 Columbus IL 25 Nyy AAA 233 25 50 10 11 .097 .785 .115 .263
2004 Columbus IL 26 Nyy AAA 381 56 84 16 36 .128 .780 .175 .294
2005 Buffalo IL 27 Cle AAA 170 15 40 5 16 .081 .765 .162 .247
2005 Memphis PCL 27 Stl AAA 120 13 28 17 5 .098 .767 .239 .342
2005 Stl Cardinal NL 27 Stl MLB 151 22 45 5 6 .127 .702 .104 .295


well, he did beat the hell out of memphis. and columbus. and norwich. those pow's are impressive. but he's always had trouble with contact. it doesn't look like that's gonna change. he'll be 28, which means he's out of upside. so there's no real reason to give him a shot.

if he does get a shot, and he hits for power like he did in memphis, he'll be worth it. well worth it. but that would be the best pow in the majors, so it's not gonna happen. if he improves his contact, and hits for power like he did in columbus (2004), he'll be worth it. that's about the best-case scenario.

the final article in my menagerie is a devil rays blog called d-rays bay. this is cool for a couple of reasons: 1. it's good to know there are devil rays fans. 2. it's a good blog. 3. these guys are actually optimistic about the future.

i'm not being funny here. there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic. carl crawford, jorge cantu, rocco baldelli, bj upton, scott kazmir. 5 reasons. that's a solid nucleus. that's a nucleus you can build around. i'm about to launch into a team-by-team prospect review. it should take a few months. i'll start with the devil rays. but now it's time to post.
Comments:
delmon young
 
ok, i'm being a little funny. i mean, devil rays, good . . . that's funny. but i do mean it.
the rays can play.
 
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