julien's baseball blog
Some moves are slightly good. Some moves are slightly bad. I tell you about them.
Thursday, March 11, 2004
it used to be top 40. they've increased the quantity. let's see about the quality.
age = 2004 - year of birth.
1. joe mauer, 21, c, twins
what a coinkidink, he's baseball america's top prospect, too. look, this kid has talent, but he also has a grand total of 276 at-bats above a-ball. am i the only one who noticed this? he is gonna suck in the major leagues, for a while. he makes decent contact, but he has no power. if the power develops, he'll be a good major leaguer, but until then, leave him in the minors. why start someone's arbitration clock if he can't even contribute? this is turning into a rant. i can't believe how ridiculous everyone's being. at least he's in the al central, which is kinda like aaa. lefty.
maybe the twins are trying to justify not drafting prior.
2. jeremy reed, 23, of, white sox
i've never heard of this guy. which doesn't really mean anything. bp likes him because of his ridiculously high batting averages last year. course, we all know batting average is the most variable stat out there, which means that young master reed was, yes, lucky. bp talks the talk about hit luck, but pecota (tm) (r) (iyf) doesn't walk the walk. i'm sorry, i mean "the incomparable pecota system (tm) (r) (c) (fyou) (gotohell)". it looks like jeremy will make it, due to contact, speed, and left-handedness, but he's overrated at #2. and he's a couple of years away.
3. andy marte, 21, 3b, braves
now here's a more typical bp prospect. andy is your classic strikeout machine. he rakes, and he's young enough to get his whiffs under control, so he could be somebody. we'll see. overrated at #3.
4. prince fielder, 20, 1b, brewers
this kid is the total package. he's the best guy on the list so far. course that's not really saying much. baseball america has him at number 10. ten is the most they'll show us. he's left-handed.
5. david wright, 22, 3b, mets
speed, power, patience. looks pretty good. needs to work on contact, but he's shown improvement so far.
6. edwin jackson, 21, p, dodgers
i talked about edwin jackson in a december 22 article about dodgers prospects. he's good. he'll have trouble with control, though. baseball america has him at #4.
7. zack greinke, 21, p, royals
retarded control. needs more strikeouts. not ready for the majors.
8. bj upton, 20, ss, devil rays
there's almost no data here. let's give him some time and see what he does. baseball america has him at #2.
ok, i'll comment on the data we have. he needs to cut way down on his strikeouts and way up on his power. he has speed, which is nice, and patience. so that bodes well. but he's a long way from being able to hit major-league pitching.
9. rickie weeks, 22, 2b, brewers
he ran all over the bases and beat the crap out of the ball at southern a&m university. he won the rotary smith and golden spikes awards (best player in the country). he's probably pretty good. baseball america has him at #5.
10. kazuo matsui, 29, ss, mets
strikeouts are a problem. doesn't walk enough. will not have the power numbers he had in japan. switch-hitter.
matsui was the subject of one of the few good rob neyer articles of the past few years. rob is good at history. analysis, on the other hand, has passed him by.
baseball america has him at #7. they say he'll be "one of the best" shortstops in the national league. people like to say this, because the big guns are in the al (arod is still a shortstop). but the nl's no joke. furcal, renteria, cabrera, and cintron are clearly better. so he's somewhere between 5th and 16th. one thing's for sure, he's the most overpaid shortstop in the national league. he's not the most overpaid shortstop in new york, though. that title belongs to a man destined to play second base.
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