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Sunday, March 14, 2004
the incomparable pecota system
you know, nate silver went to my college. them economics majors is smart. i wonder if he took allen sanderson's economics of sports.
A good forecasting system, like PECOTA, looks at a whole series of these sorts of indicators in an attempt to improve its understanding of the player's true level of ability.
maybe that's the problem with a good forecasting system, like pecota (i think it's an acronym): it looks at too many indicators. cut down on your indicators, nate!
he's a scientist.
1-10
11-15
16-30
31-33
34-38
39-42
43. adam wainwright, 23, p, cardinals
adam was a much higher prospect a year ago. i don't have the list. his main problem is that he sucks.
44. scott hairston, 24, 2b, diamondbacks
sucks.
45. bobby jenks, 23, p, angels
it's his birthday! happy birthday, bobby! bobby had 103 strikeouts last year, in 83 innings. so that's good. but he walked 51. that's bad. he only allowed 2 home runs. that's good. he's what you call a good/bad player.
46. jeremy hermida, 20, of, marlins
jeremy's got a long way to go. he needs a lot more contact, and a lot more power. what he's got going for him is left-handedness, and speed. you can't teach speed. but he's gonna need annie sullivan to teach him to swing.
47. sean burnett, 22, p, pirates
ok, i give up. why is he a prospect?
nate silver knows. there is real science behind these things.
48. jj davis, 26, of, pirates
well, he's made a lot of progress. in 2000, he struck out 171 times in 485 at-bats in a ball. in 2002, he struck out 101 times in 348 at-bats in double-a. then, in aaa, he struck out a mere 85 times in 426 at-bats.
maybe in the majors he'll improve again! if so, he's a killer: he had 59 extra-base hits in those 426 at-bats. what's more likely, though, is he's reached his limit, and he's not gonna make it.
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