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Thursday, March 04, 2004
the baseball pod project
there are four parts. four is square.
1. the algorithm. the algorithm is a model of the matchup between batter and pitcher, and the possibilities that result. all possibilities are considered. every fielder is taken into account. the designer is yours truly.
2. the simulator. the simulator predicts outcomes of games. 10,000 copies of each game are played, with the results giving a distinct picture of the possibilities. simple statstical measures such as mean and standard deviation can then be applied for a variety of purposes. the programmer is paxton mason.
3. the database. the database has two sections: historical and right-now. the historical section is the cache of data that we use to refine the algorithm, develop the simulator, and inform the creation of the right-now profiles (rnp's). every player has a right-now profile, which tells you what the player would do in a game played tomorrow. the builder is aziz al-doory.
4. the theory. the theory is what we use to convert a player's historical data into his right-now profile. for every question that the algorithm asks, the profile answers it. the formation of the theory is informed by all those statsistical tools that we know and love, viz significance tests, regressions, and correlations. the statistician is adam lindstrom.
you can see that the four parts of the pod project are intimately connected. the purpose of this blog is to organize said connections. it will also serve to make public the progress of the project. the baseball pod project is still in fetus form. you will see its development. all are invited to contribute.
descriptions of each part will follow.
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