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Wednesday, January 14, 2004
this article is an example of how the forces of darkness misinterpret coors field. we must be ever vigilant!

phil's got nothing to lose here. if the braves or the yankees (or the cubs or the red sox) win, then he was just trying to be interesting. on the other hand, if the rockies come through on their 1.5% chance, then he's a genius. actually, their chance is below 1%.

kansas city would be a horrible call.

barry bonds, jason schmidt, and 23 detroit tigers would be a contender. so they're the favorite. but arizona is right behind them. sure, they lost schilling, but they didn't get a full season out of him anyway. and brandon webb is a stone killer. you don't find that k/9 with that g/f anywhere. not even kevin brown.

the lineup is good, too. alex cintron and robby hammock are ready to succeed. robbie alomar doesn't help, but he doesn't hurt. they still have luis gonzalez, and they added a pretty good first baseman. i wonder who gets to keep #11.

i better stop or i'll convince myself they'll take the series. regardless, the rocks are third at best.

uh . . . no. and no.

managing is tangible. bobby cox is a good manager. tony larussa is a good manager, despite his inability to work with young pitchers. is clint hurdle a good manager? the odds are against it.

let's start the discussion with the rockies' home/road splits. in 2003, rockies hitters hitters had 2749 ab, 329 bb, 491 k, 183 2b, 26 3b, and 113 hr. that's about a .107 .821 .143 wal con pow. on the road, they got 2769 ab, 290 bb, 643 k, 147 2b, 5 3b, 85 hr. the power numbers jump out, but look at the strikeouts. road wal con pow = .095 .768 .111. the rockies on the road have average power; at home they have above-average power. but contact goes from bad to above average. it's clear that altitude has a bigger effect on contact than power.

there are lots of mitigating factors: hitters seem to do better than we expect once they leave coors field. the pitching numbers are another surprise; we'll run them in a minute. regardless, it's a lot easier to make contact in coors than out of it.

ok. phil's first point is that the lineup will score "some" runs.

do i have to take this seriously? regardless of how much "some" means, the rockies are not a good hitting team unless they lead the league in runs scored. i'm sorry, that's just the way it is. last year, the rockies were 6th in the majors with 853 runs. they didn't even lead in runs at home, finishing second to the boston red sox. on the road, they were a pathetic 26th.

jeromy burnitz is gonna love coors field, but what the rockies need is actual talent. a healthy larry walker is not gonna make the difference between horrible and great. and vinny castilla will be a disappointment. he already makes good contact, so coors won't help him as much. this offense is bad bad bad. what phil's doing here is overstating every possible chance for improvement. it's one of his favorite techniques.

i'm gonna end this here. phil figures he's established the superiority of the offense, and spends the remaining four points using his favorite technique on the pitchers. the pitching is similar to the hitting: not good enough. and groundball pitchers are not the correct pitchers to get in high altitude. they need velocity. i'll get more into that in a later post. see if you can find the rest of phil's mistakes.

actually, it's more a reflection of the fact that range factor is a bunch of bullshit.

sorry, i couldn't resist.

shake off the evil! don't let it stick to you!
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