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Wednesday, January 21, 2004
a new era
our top 15, from yesterday, with ip & hr:
Rk Player Team K/BB K/9 G/F ip hr
1 C Schilling Ari 6.06 10.39 1.05 168.0 17
2 M Prior ChC 4.90 10.43 1.12 211.1 15
3 P Martinez Bos 4.38 9.93 1.14 186.2 7
4 K Wood ChC 2.66 11.35 1.06 211.0 24
5 J Vazquez Mon 4.23 9.40 0.83 230.2 28
6 J Schmidt SFG 4.52 9.01 0.84 207.2 14
7 B Webb Ari 2.53 8.57 3.44 180.2 12
8 M Mussina NYY 4.88 8.18 1.13 214.2 21
9 R Halladay Tor 6.38 6.90 2.70 266.0 15
10 K Brown LAD 3.30 7.89 3.37 211.0 11
11 E Loaiza CWS 3.70 8.23 1.44 226.1 17
12 A Pettitte NYY 3.60 7.78 1.76 208.1 21
13 R Clemens NYY 3.28 8.08 1.27 211.2 24
14 K Escobar Tor 2.04 7.94 1.54 180.1 15
15 R Wolf Phi 2.27 7.97 1.06 200.0 27
schilling has greatly reduced his home runs allowed, from 37 in 2001 (256.2 ip) to 29 in 2002 (259.1 ip) to 17 in 2003. look at those innings and 2003's 168.0 and you'll say "obv" but it wasn't a shoulder or elbow he hurt it was a comebacker to the hand. so he should be fine in 2004. and that's what we're talking about: 2004.
in light of these numbers, let's do a final re-ordering:
Rk Player Team K/BB K/9 G/F ip hr
1 M Prior ChC 4.90 10.43 1.12 211.1 15
2 C Schilling Ari 6.06 10.39 1.05 168.0 17
3 R Halladay Tor 6.38 6.90 2.70 266.0 15
4 P Martinez Bos 4.38 9.93 1.14 186.2 7
5 K Wood ChC 2.66 11.35 1.06 211.0 24
6 J Vazquez Mon 4.23 9.40 0.83 230.2 28
7 B Webb Ari 2.53 8.57 3.44 180.2 12
8 J Schmidt SFG 4.52 9.01 0.84 207.2 14
9 K Brown LAD 3.30 7.89 3.37 211.0 11
10 M Mussina NYY 4.88 8.18 1.13 214.2 21
halladay is a freak. look at those innings! it's cause he throws so few pitches to each batter. and his home run rates are almost as low as pedro's! schmidt gets penalized for pitching in the most difficult park to homer in for those not named barry bonds. i overstate my case. safeco is probably harder. detroit. los angeles, san diego, and shea are probably about as hard. vazquez gets credit for pitching 4 games in hiram bithorn stadium. that doesn't sound like much, but it's one-fourth of his home starts, and hiram bithorn was the most extreme home run park in the majors in 2003.
there are four pitchers who didn't qualify, but should definitely be in the discussion. 3 are young and one is old:
Rk Player Team K/BB K/9 G/F ip hr
? r oswalt hou 3.72 7.63 1.35 127.1 15
? j beckett flo 2.71 9.63 1.33 142.0 9
? j santana min 3.60 9.61 0.58 158.1 17
? r johnson ari 4.63 9.68 1.39 114.0 16
roy oswalt had groin problems last year. if he's healthy, he's a top 10 candidate. but that's a big if. he was brilliant in 2002, allowing only 17 hr in 233.0 ip, in the park formerly known as home run field.
we've all heard of josh beckett. he was the hero of the world series, the david who killed goliath slinging stones. how good is he really? this kid is for real. he probably belongs in the 7--9 range already. and he's 23.
shannon stewart got the credit, but the man responsible for the twins' second-half surge was johan santana. he's 24, and he's left-handed. in 2002, he struck out 11.38 per 9. some of that comes from his partial use as a reliever, but he'll almost certainly be a top 10. looks like we've pushed out some yankees, and possibly a giant:
correct for park and era, and randy johnson is sandy koufax. i'm not kidding. he's not retiring, though, so he's breaking the pattern. if his body holds together, he could finish as high as #1. expect a top 10 performance.
there's a new crop of young fireballers, and they're taking over. mark prior is the youngest and strongest. vazquez, 27, wood, 26, and halladay, 26, are established as dominators. following them are oswalt, 26, webb, 24, santana, 24, and beckett, 23. the new era of the pitcher is nigh.
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