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Tuesday, January 13, 2004
hot stove cheaters
i was looking forward to espn.com's hot stove heaters this year. i was going to use them as a starting point for a discussion on each team's chances in 2004. they have projected lineups, which is something, and they say things i can criticize.
alas, the hot stove heaters, as we know them, are gone. instead, they give us this crap. so i'm gonna have to do it myself. i hope they still run john sickels' minor-league reports.
we start with . . . the chicago cubs!
2003: 88--74, first in the nl central.
possible lineup:
cf l corey patterson
2b p walker/ grudzielanek
rf r sammy sosa
1b r derrek lee
lf r moises alou
3b r aramis ramirez
ss r alex s gonzalez
c p bako/ barrett
lots of righties . . . dusty could mix things up a bit by moving walker down, or switching 7 & 8, but those don't seem like things he would do. either way, a right-handed lineup is not as big a problem as some would have you believe, and there are left-handed bats on the bench, which we'll get to later. let's run some walconpows:
derrek lee:
year age aab w k hr wal con pow
1997 22 54 9 24 1 .143 .556 .133
1998 23 456 57 120 17 .111 .737 .140
1999 24 219 17 70 5 .072 .680 .101
2000 25 479 67 123 28 .123 .743 .138
2001 26 567 58 126 21 .093 .778 .141
2002 27 585 103 164 27 .150 .720 .164
2003 28 545 98 131 31 .152 .760 .155
throw out 1999, and he has improved every year. will he ever stop? yo, i don't know. turn off the lights, and let's go. . . . they should turn off the lights in wrigley: it was made for day games. day games are better than night games anyway, but that's another story. speed indicates likely further improvement. this is a great move by the cubs. hee seop choi strikes out too much to succeed in the majors:
year age aab w k hr wal con pow
2002 23 50 7 15 2 .123 .700 .086
2003 24 202 41 71 8 .169 .649 .191
old player skills:
year age aab w k hr wal con pow
1986 23 53 5 18 3 .086 .660 .114
1987 24 565 76 131 49 .119 .768 .187
1988 25 554 80 117 32 .126 .789 .126
1989 26 501 86 94 33 .147 .812 .123
1990 27 532 117 116 39 .180 .782 .132
1991 28 488 96 116 22 .164 .762 .118
1992 29 476 95 105 42 .166 .779 .173
1993 30 85 22 19 9 .206 .776 .227
1994 31 135 37 40 9 .215 .704 .126
1995 32 323 99 77 39 .235 .762 .211
1996 33 424 124 112 52 .226 .736 .234
1997 34 547 110 159 58 .167 .709 .219
1998 35 513 168 155 70 .247 .698 .254
1999 36 526 135 141 65 .204 .732 .226
2000 37 238 83 78 32 .259 .672 .250
2001 38 305 59 118 29 .162 .613 .176
yep, it's mark mcgwire. but we have gone too far afield. prediction for derrek lee: .150 .760 .160 wal con pow, .280/.388/.508 avg/obp/slg.
much better than eric karros:
year age aab w k hr wal con pow
1991 24 14 1 6 0 .067 .571 .125
1992 25 550 39 103 20 .066 .813 .114
1993 26 622 36 82 23 .055 .868 .096
1994 27 417 31 53 14 .069 .873 .099
1995 28 555 65 115 32 .105 .793 .145
1996 29 616 54 121 34 .081 .804 .129
1997 30 637 63 116 31 .090 .818 .113
1998 31 514 50 93 23 .089 .819 .105
1999 32 584 55 119 34 .086 .796 .159
2000 33 596 67 122 31 .101 .795 .127
2001 34 441 44 101 15 .091 .771 .109
2002 35 530 43 74 13 .075 .860 .088
2003 36 337 28 46 12 .077 .864 .100
whoa, eric karros significantly improved his con over the past two years. maybe the cubs knew something when they made that trade with the dodgers. the dodgers clearly didn't. that conpow translates to an average of .259 + speed, which means he will be a very useful pinch-hitter and spot-starter against strikeout pitchers for a team whose regular 1b has contact problems, like the phillies.
i'm gonna leave this now because i have to fight the forces of darkness.
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