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Monday, November 24, 2003
win shares and free agents
carl bialik wrote an interesting article about this year's crop of free agents and their 2003 win shares. normally it costs money, but in the true spirit of the internet i am presenting it to you for free. almost. the only cost to you is you have to read my commentary. no cheating!

i can do this because i have no assets. anyone that sues me is in for a colossal disappointment.

2003: .328/.378/.687 (avg/obp/slg)
career (incl 2003): .287/.337/.502

his contact rate was slightly down this year. but his walks improved. his 43/29 hr/2b ratio is a little high, suggesting luck, but you don't get that kind of power spike from luck. the average also indicates luck, but increased power yields increased average. call it half luck half muscles. where did he get the muscles? idunno; must be some magic strength potion or something.

whatever the cause, javy lopez went from a money pit to a bargain at $7 million.

he'll be overpaid in 2004.

sure, but let's not make too much of that. the regular season is the only thing close to a representative sample size, which even the sabermetrically ignorant know, if not explicitly, then intuitively.

pudge has young-player skills, so he's a good bet to continue his success. he'll be one of the top 2 in the majors next year, along with jorge posada, who would be even better if he would stop trying to hit left-handed.

just re-signed, at $2 million per. that's about $1.5 mil too much. a smart gm would nab brian schneider, yorvit torrealba, michael barret, or robby hammock, who are cheap and promising. american league options include toby hall and miguel olivo, but those guys are probably difficult to acquire.

and the fact that he can't hit. his career avg/obp/slg is .265/.333/.353. ugh! and it's mostly in hitters parks! he may shift to backup in 2004.

still has patience, contact, and power. he was actually unlucky this year. will continue to produce.

the only bouncing for snow was the ball bouncing between infielders. he is no longer worth a major league roster spot.

it's because he's not actually very good.

career .331 obp. this is first base we're talking about!

and shouldn't.

he'll probably get a raise, and should have a good run over the next couple of years. inexplicably, i left him out of my marlins comment yesterday.

probably the luckiest player in the majors this year. he'll be overpaid in 2004. it'll be hilarious if it's the cubs.


another late-career power spike for a contact/speed guy (cf: marquis grissom.) should be decent in 2004.

the royals should drop joe randa like a bad habit.

yes, but coors didn't help him as much as others. he still makes great contact, with enough power to be usable, though not at $5 million.

definitely hits the ball hard. if he could just walk a little, he'd be great. 50 bb in 2002 gives a glimmer of hope.

will continue to be chris stynes.

no. they'll tender arbitration, and he'll get signed by another team. then bubba crosby takes over. a's get draft picks and salary reduction.

btw, the a's are not a walk-heavy team. in 2003, they finished with 556 bb, as far from the top (yankees, 684) as the bottom (devil rays, 420) of the league. they are much better characterized as a contact-heavy team. only anaheim had fewer strikeouts. it's time for the "slow-pitch softball" crap to end.

2001 was a fluke.

also reducing his price is the fact that he sucks.

it's true.

he is not above average. he will be grossly overpaid next year.

using him in center a bit was a pretty creative move by jim tracy. he should have stuck with it, keeping rickey henderson in left and dave roberts on the bench.

carl everett is not a center fielder. but he improved his contact rate markedly this year. if it sticks, he's a useful player.

it's not safeco; it's the strikeouts. the cliff is nigh.

rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated: turns out 2001 was bad luck.

it always surprises me when someone who claims statistical rigor says something as nonsensical as "the lineup forced hittable balls." sheff is for real. he's one of the top 5 hitters of the past 10 years. it's been masked by injury and pitcher's parks.

yes, but that was a small sample size. guillen is the best value on the list.

except for the "best-value" list. vlad is great and all, but i wouldn't sign him. he's gonna cost a lot of money, and there are injury concerns. save the money and spend it wisely.

sanders got lucky in 2003, so he'll be overpaid in 2004. his poor 2002 numbers are due to pac-bell park. power, strikeouts, and defense make him a good coors field candidate.

cruz has always had plate discipline. his career bb/(bb+ab) is .116, which is above average. the problem is the strikeouts. he's basically a young reggie sanders. but not that young. and he won't last as long.

colon is one of the most overrated players in baseball. yes, he throws hard, but his strikeout rate is pedestrian. and his k/bb. the yankees are the right team for him, with their penchant for overpayment.

no one really talked about this, but clemens was an absolute killer last year. he was better than his era, as are all yankee hurlers, because they play horrible defense. look at his k/9 and k/bb. that's phenomenal for a right-handed pitcher in yankee stadium. which shows you how unappreciated mike mussina is.

he's been at this level for four years, with normal era fluctuation.

could this comment have any meaning? could any of them?

see pudge rodriguez comment, above. these wall street guys should really stick to finance.

2003 was the good year. k/9 increased by a full point.

the angels signed him. the angels are stupid.

anderson, leskanic, randa. not the signings of a contender.

how 'bout "first-half success contributed to phillies contending."? the phillies missed the playoffs because they suck. it's not kevin's fault.

if you wanna know whose fault it is, it's ed wade's.

john thomson is the most underrated pitcher in the major leagues. that phonebooth they call a ballpark in arlington masks quality k/bb ratios.

tendering arbitration to greg maddux was one of the few mistakes john schuerholz has made in his tenure as braves dynasty maintainer. in 2004 it'll be some other team that overpays him, like the angels.

an exception how? to beane? i don't think so. to you? does that mean you think other closers are overvalued? what exactly are you saying here, carl?

the best twins reliever was latroy.

thank you for that insight. people hated on uuu last year because his velocity was down. but he still has the k's.

looks like carl's running out of things to say. so am i. relievers are not important as free-agents.


quiet except for the 97 mph fastball screaming past your ear.

yanks want him. they are taking the "buy the championship" idea to its logical extent. it will fail.

k's are good; walks and injuries are bad. overpaid in 2004.

in 2002, he was hurt. in 2001, he was good. i don't know how people can say such wrong things. all the time.

the thing that should not be forgotten is julian tavarez's 2000 season in colorado. 11 hr in 120 ip = insanity.

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