win shares and free agents
carl bialik wrote an interesting article about this year's crop of free agents and their 2003 win shares. normally it costs money, but in the true spirit of the internet i am presenting it to you for free. almost. the only cost to you is you have to read my commentary. no cheating!

i can do this because i have no assets. anyone that sues me is in for a colossal disappointment.

AT WHAT COST?
Sifting for Value Among Baseball's Free Agents
By CARL BIALIK
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE

With a stocked market of free agents, baseball's general managers are going on a holiday shopping spree. Among the 210 players who have gone on the open market are catcher Javy Lopez, shortstop Miguel Tejada and pitcher Andy Pettitte. But how to value all of that talent?

To help GMs sort out the (solid and reasonably priced) Brian Andersons from the (pricey and middling) Brian Jordans, we've ranked available free agents by a statistic called win shares. Win shares, developed by statistical guru and Boston Red Sox adviser Bill James, combines all offensive, defensive and pitching statistics into one number. The statistic shows the player's contribution to his team's wins -- and wins, of course, are the currency of baseball. Many baseball analysts find the stat more effective than any single standard statistic like batting average or pitching wins in capturing players' value. (Explaining the statistic in full detail takes Mr. James 120 pages in his book "Win Shares"; for lighter background reading, see Rob Neyer's evaluation of the book on ESPN.com).

Of course, our method has its flaws. For one, we're using just 2003 stats, which means we may overstate the value of players who managed to top their career numbers this past season, and we entirely miss players who sat out the season because of injuries. We're also not taking into account age. (These two factors mean Vladimir Guerrero, the most valued prize on the market, rates as only the third best right fielder by our measure.) Plus, by looking at just major-league stats, we miss two highly anticipated free agents from overseas: Japan's Kazuo Matsui and Cuba's Maels Rodriguez.

Still, even with their imperfections, these numbers offer a handy look at some of the best talent that's available at each position -- and some clues about how baseball's general managers will value them.

Top Free Agents at Each Position and Their 2003 Stats and Salaries

CATCHER
NAME, AGE 2003 TEAM SALARY WIN SHARES BATTING AVERAGE HOME RUNS SALARY PER WIN SHARE

Javier Lopez, 33 Braves $7.0 million 29.73 .328 43 $235,452

Broke record for home runs in a season by a catcher. Desire to shift from backstop to less-demanding position diminishes his value. Also, the predictive value of his 2003 performance is suspect; he posted career highs in slugging and on-base percentage at age 33. (Then again, ever heard of Barry Bonds?) His agent guesses Mr. Lopez will land elsewhere next year.

2003: .328/.378/.687 (avg/obp/slg)
career (incl 2003): .287/.337/.502

his contact rate was slightly down this year. but his walks improved. his 43/29 hr/2b ratio is a little high, suggesting luck, but you don't get that kind of power spike from luck. the average also indicates luck, but increased power yields increased average. call it half luck half muscles. where did he get the muscles? idunno; must be some magic strength potion or something.

whatever the cause, javy lopez went from a money pit to a bargain at $7 million.

he'll be overpaid in 2004.

Ivan Rodriguez, 32 Marlins $9.3 million 23.45 .297 16 $397,369

The NLCS MVP's postseason heroics boost his market value.

sure, but let's not make too much of that. the regular season is the only thing close to a representative sample size, which even the sabermetrically ignorant know, if not explicitly, then intuitively.

pudge has young-player skills, so he's a good bet to continue his success. he'll be one of the top 2 in the majors next year, along with jorge posada, who would be even better if he would stop trying to hit left-handed.

Brad Ausmus, 34 Astros $5.5 million 11.83 .229 4 $464,920

Weak hitter makes the list for his sterling fielding and ability to nab baserunners.

just re-signed, at $2 million per. that's about $1.5 mil too much. a smart gm would nab brian schneider, yorvit torrealba, michael barret, or robby hammock, who are cheap and promising. american league options include toby hall and miguel olivo, but those guys are probably difficult to acquire.

Brent Mayne, 35 Royals $2.8 million 9.97 .245 6 $275,827

Royals declined to exercise a $3 million option on him. His age will deter some possible suitors.

and the fact that he can't hit. his career avg/obp/slg is .265/.333/.353. ugh! and it's mostly in hitters parks! he may shift to backup in 2004.

FIRST BASE
NAME, AGE 2003 TEAM SALARY WIN SHARES BATTING AVERAGE HOME RUNS SALARY PER WIN SHARE

Rafael Palmeiro, 39 Rangers $9.0 million 19.21 .260 38 $468,506

Nearing 40, Mr. Palmeiro can no longer play first base every day. Still, his ageless bat seems a sure bet to provide value to an AL team next year from the designated-hitter spot -- in 2003 Mr. Palmeiro, a Viagra flack when off the field, reached at least 38 homers and 104 runs batted in for ninth straight season. Unlikely to return to suddenly budget-conscious Rangers.

still has patience, contact, and power. he was actually unlucky this year. will continue to produce.

J.T. Snow, 36 Giants $6.9 million 13.95 .273 8 $491,039

Bounced back from two off years but missed a third of the season to groin injury.

the only bouncing for snow was the ball bouncing between infielders. he is no longer worth a major league roster spot.

Travis Lee, 28 Devil Rays $500,000 13.18 .275 19 $37,936

Still hasn't lived up to potential suggested by promising 1998 rookie season.

it's because he's not actually very good.

Scott Spiezio, 31 Angels $4.3 million 12.42 .265 16 $342,190

Likely to benefit from lack of depth at position among free agents.

career .331 obp. this is first base we're talking about!

Wil Cordero, 32 Expos $600,000 11.39 .278 16 $52,678

Hasn't played in more than 130 games in any season since 1997.

and shouldn't.

SECOND BASE
NAME, AGE 2003 TEAM SALARY WIN SHARES BATTING AVERAGE HOME RUNS SALARY PER WIN SHARE

Luis Castillo, 28 Marlins $4.9 million 22.26 .314 6 $217,880

Had second best offensive season and put in typically spotless second base. Helped fuel Marlins' playoff run with consistent play. One of few Marlins to play on both of the franchise's championship clubs. But running ability is overhyped -- was thrown out in 19 of 40 base-stealing attempts in 2003, meaning the Marlins would have been better off, overall, if he hadn't tried once.

he'll probably get a raise, and should have a good run over the next couple of years. inexplicably, i left him out of my marlins comment yesterday.

Mark Grudzielanek, 33 Cubs $5.5 million 18.19 .314 3 $302,364

Had second best season of nine-year career in walk year, when eligible for free agency.

probably the luckiest player in the majors this year. he'll be overpaid in 2004. it'll be hilarious if it's the cubs.

Todd Walker, 30 Red Sox $3.5 million 14.69 .283 13 $234,854

Uncharacteristically, had most homers (5) of any player in postseason, despite missing World Series.

usable.

Eric Young, 36 Giants $2.0 million 9.51 .251 15 $210,305

Tied career high in homers but fizzled in 26 games for Giants after beign acquired in August trade with Milwaukee.

another late-career power spike for a contact/speed guy (cf: marquis grissom.) should be decent in 2004.

THIRD BASE
NAME, AGE 2003 TEAM SALARY WIN SHARES BATTING AVERAGE HOME RUNS SALARY PER WIN SHARE

Joe Randa, 34 Royals $4.5 million 14.23 .291 16 $316,233

The best of a weak free-agent lot at the hot corner, Mr. Randa makes his year-round home in Kansas City and would like to stay. Without much help ready in their farm system, the Royals are likely to keep him on. Coaches say he showed marked improvement on defense this year, though numbers don't particularly bear that out.

the royals should drop joe randa like a bad habit.

Vinny Castilla, 36 Braves $5.0 million 13.72 .277 22 $364,431

Predictably, production has fallen off since he stopped playing half his games at Coors Field.

yes, but coors didn't help him as much as others. he still makes great contact, with enough power to be usable, though not at $5 million.

Tony Batista, 30 Orioles $6.4 million 10.74 .235 26 $595,903

Woeful .270 on-base percentage diminishes his value.

definitely hits the ball hard. if he could just walk a little, he'd be great. 50 bb in 2002 gives a glimmer of hope.

Chris Stynes, 31 Rockies $550,000 10.17 .255 11 $54,081

Rockies declined option on him.

will continue to be chris stynes.

SHORTSTOP
NAME, AGE 2003 TEAM SALARY WIN SHARES BATTING AVERAGE HOME RUNS SALARY PER WIN SHARE

Miguel Tejada, 27 A's $5.1 million 25.34 .278 27 $202,249

Production fell off slightly from 2002 MVP season, and he disappeared in the postseason. Plus, he remains impatient at the plate, a rarity in the walks-conscious A's system. Still, there's no disputing his production and fielding, which means his hefty price tag is expected to land Mr. Tejada elsewhere next season. Will recent cost-cutting moves by A's open up salary room for a surprise re-signing?

no. they'll tender arbitration, and he'll get signed by another team. then bubba crosby takes over. a's get draft picks and salary reduction.

btw, the a's are not a walk-heavy team. in 2003, they finished with 556 bb, as far from the top (yankees, 684) as the bottom (devil rays, 420) of the league. they are much better characterized as a contact-heavy team. only anaheim had fewer strikeouts. it's time for the "slow-pitch softball" crap to end.

Rich Aurilia, 32 Giants $6.3 million 13.11 .277 13 $476,735

Has had troubling dropoff from 2001 peak form.

2001 was a fluke.

Mike Bordick, 38 Blue Jays $1.0 million 10.70 .274 5 $93,458

At his age, should come cheap.

also reducing his price is the fact that he sucks.

Deivi Cruz, 31 Orioles $1.0 million 10.23 .250 14 $97,752

Needs better plate patience -- just 13 walks in 152 games.

it's true.

LEFT FIELD
NAME, AGE 2003 TEAM SALARY WIN SHARES BATTING AVERAGE HOME RUNS SALARY PER WIN SHARE

Shannon Stewart, 30 Twins $6.2 million 18.43 .307 13 $336,408

Placed fourth in wide-open voting for AL MVP award for helping spark the Twins' late-season run after being acquired in a trade with Toronto. His production didn't quite merit those votes, but he is a consistently above-average offensive player and gains attention with flashy outfield play. His Minnesota teammates want him back next year.

he is not above average. he will be grossly overpaid next year.

Jeromy Burnitz, 34 Dodgers $12.2 million 11.76 .239 31 $1,034,581

Due for a big paycut on a short-term deal.

using him in center a bit was a pretty creative move by jim tracy. he should have stuck with it, keeping rickey henderson in left and dave roberts on the bench.

CENTER FIELD
NAME, AGE 2003 TEAM SALARY WIN SHARES BATTING AVERAGE HOME RUNS SALARY PER WIN SHARE

Carl Everett, 32 White Sox $9.2 million 20.78 .287 28 $440,327

Switch hitter brought a bad reputation with him -- for incidents like head-butting an ump in 2000 -- to Chicago after arriving in midseason deal with Texas, though the Sox said he had a bad rap. In 2003, he played in more games and had more at bats than ever before in injury-plagued career -- despite being hit in the head by a cellphone in a freak incident during an April game.

carl everett is not a center fielder. but he improved his contact rate markedly this year. if it sticks, he's a useful player.

Mike Cameron, 31 Mariners $7.4 million 20.71 .253 18 $358,120

Gold Glover may be glad to say good riddance to Safeco Field.

it's not safeco; it's the strikeouts. the cliff is nigh.

Kenny Lofton, 36 Cubs $1.0 million 17.56 .296 12 $58,371

Wants to return to Wrigley, and Cubs manager Dusty Baker wants him back.

rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated: turns out 2001 was bad luck.

RIGHT FIELD
NAME, AGE 2003 TEAM SALARY WIN SHARES BATTING AVERAGE HOME RUNS SALARY PER WIN SHARE

Gary Sheffield, 34 Braves $11.0 million 34.51 .330 39 $318,748

In second year in Atlanta, he fueled Braves' potent offense and broke Hank Aaron's club record for runs batted in, bouncing back from an off year in 2002. The lineup's all-around success, in turn, may have padded his stats by forcing pitchers to give him hittable balls. Has stolen 30 of 36 bases in last two seasons.

it always surprises me when someone who claims statistical rigor says something as nonsensical as "the lineup forced hittable balls." sheff is for real. he's one of the top 5 hitters of the past 10 years. it's been masked by injury and pitcher's parks.

Jose Guillen, 27 A's $500,000 19.77 .311 31 $25,291

In career year, production dropped off sharply in pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum.

yes, but that was a small sample size. guillen is the best value on the list.

Vladimir Guerrero, 28 Expos $11.5 million 17.99 .330 25 $639,244

Incomplete season makes this just about only free-agent list he doesn't top.

except for the "best-value" list. vlad is great and all, but i wouldn't sign him. he's gonna cost a lot of money, and there are injury concerns. save the money and spend it wisely.

Reggie Sanders, 36 Pirates $1.0 million 17.60 .285 31 $56,818

Has played for six teams in last six years, and will likely make it seven in seven.

sanders got lucky in 2003, so he'll be overpaid in 2004. his poor 2002 numbers are due to pac-bell park. power, strikeouts, and defense make him a good coors field candidate.

Jose Cruz Jr., 29 Giants $2.5 million 16.76 .250 20 $149,165

Newfound plate discipline led to career high in on-base percentage (.366).

cruz has always had plate discipline. his career bb/(bb+ab) is .116, which is above average. the problem is the strikeouts. he's basically a young reggie sanders. but not that young. and he won't last as long.

STARTING PITCHERS
NAME, AGE 2003 TEAM SALARY WIN SHARE EARNED RUN AVERAGE WIN-LOSS RECORD SALARY PER WIN SHARE

Bartolo Colon, 30 White Sox $8.3 million 16.93 3.87 15-13 $487,301

The hefty right-hander rejected a three-year offer from the White Sox. Hasn't ruled out a return to Chicago, but may attract interest -- and big bucks -- from Yankees owner George Steinbrenner, who may lose three of his top starters to free agency. Has consistently been one of baseball's top starters over the last six years, but the 30 homers he yielded in 2003 are cause for concern.

colon is one of the most overrated players in baseball. yes, he throws hard, but his strikeout rate is pedestrian. and his k/bb. the yankees are the right team for him, with their penchant for overpayment.

Roger Clemens, 41 Yankees $7.1 million 15.47 3.91 17-19 $456,444

He says he's not coming back. Believe it when you see it.

no one really talked about this, but clemens was an absolute killer last year. he was better than his era, as are all yankee hurlers, because they play horrible defense. look at his k/9 and k/bb. that's phenomenal for a right-handed pitcher in yankee stadium. which shows you how unappreciated mike mussina is.

Sidney Ponson, 27 Giants $4.3 million 14.75 3.75 17-12 $288,136

Reached new level last year.

he's been at this level for four years, with normal era fluctuation.

Andy Pettitte, 31 Yankees $11.5 million 14.62 4.02 21-8 $786,594

Could lefty be too expensive for George Steinbrenner? Could anyone?

could this comment have any meaning? could any of them?

David Wells, 40 Yankees $3.3 million 14.46 4.14 15-7 $224,758

Disappearing act in World Series Game 5 hurt Yanks, and his market value.

see pudge rodriguez comment, above. these wall street guys should really stick to finance.

Miguel Batista, 33 Diamondbacks $3.4 million 13.51 3.54 10-9 $249,815

Steady performance last three years overshadowed by Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson.

2003 was the good year. k/9 increased by a full point.

Kelvim Escobar, 27 Blue Jays $3.9 million 12.10 4.29 13-9 $322,314

Has just one successful year as a starter, which may make three-year, $21 million asking price too steep.

the angels signed him. the angels are stupid.

Brian Anderson, 31 Royals $1.5 million 11.52 3.78 14-11 $130,208

May return to Cleveland after leaving for Kansas City in midseason.

anderson, leskanic, randa. not the signings of a contender.

Kevin Millwood, 29 Phillies $9.9 million 11.29 4.01 14-12 $876,882

Second-half struggles contributed to Phillies missing the playoffs.

how 'bout "first-half success contributed to phillies contending."? the phillies missed the playoffs because they suck. it's not kevin's fault.

if you wanna know whose fault it is, it's ed wade's.

John Thomson, 30 Rangers $1.3 million 11.13 4.85 13-14 $116,801

Hard-luck righty has had losing record in each of his seven seasons.

john thomson is the most underrated pitcher in the major leagues. that phonebooth they call a ballpark in arlington masks quality k/bb ratios.

Greg Maddux, 37 Braves $14.8 million 10.83 3.96 16-11 $1,361,958

Was high ERA -- for him -- a sign that he's wearing down?

tendering arbitration to greg maddux was one of the few mistakes john schuerholz has made in his tenure as braves dynasty maintainer. in 2004 it'll be some other team that overpays him, like the angels.

RELIEF PITCHERS
NAME, AGE 2003 TEAM SALARY WIN SHARE EARNED RUN AVERAGE SAVES/SAVE OPPORTUNITIES SALARY PER WIN SHARE

Keith Foulke, 31 A's $6.0 million 21.35 2.08 43/48 $281,030

After leading the AL in saves, righty may be too pricy for the tight budget of general manager Billy Beane. Mr. Beane's view that closers generally are overvalued is well-documented, but Mr. Foulke -- driven by perfectionism he nearly lived up to last season -- is clearly an exception. (Mr. Beane has compared him to former Oakland great Dennis Eckersley.) His value comes in part from durability: He pitched 86.2 innings last year, unusually high total for a closer.

an exception how? to beane? i don't think so. to you? does that mean you think other closers are overvalued? what exactly are you saying here, carl?

Eddie Guardado, 33 Twins $2.7 million 14.58 2.89 41/45 $185,185

Near-perfect second half may price him out of small-market Twins' range.

the best twins reliever was latroy.

Ugueth Urbina, 30 Marlins $4.5 million 14.37 2.81 32/38 $313,152

He and Pudge Rodriguez kissed after postseason wins in Florida's championship run; now both may be playing elsewhere.

thank you for that insight. people hated on uuu last year because his velocity was down. but he still has the k's.

Tim Worrell, 36 Giants $2.0 million 13.47 2.87 38/45 $148,478

Brother of ex-closer Todd got first shot at end-of-game spotlight this year.

looks like carl's running out of things to say. so am i. relievers are not important as free-agents.

Shigetoshi Hasegawa, 35 Mariners $1.8 million 13.39 1.48 16/17 $134,429

Starred in Japan before joining majors in 1997.

overrated.

LaTroy Hawkins, 31 Twins $3.0 million 13.24 1.86 2/8 $226,586

Quietly, setup man excelled while going 9-3.

quiet except for the 97 mph fastball screaming past your ear.

Paul Quantrill, 35 Dodgers $3.3 million 11.14 1.75 1/5 $299,222

Led majors with 89 appearances.

yanks want him. they are taking the "buy the championship" idea to its logical extent. it will fail.

Tom Gordon, 36 White Sox $1.4 million 10.84 3.16 12/17 $129,151

Bounced back effectively from arm problems.

k's are good; walks and injuries are bad. overpaid in 2004.

Julian Tavarez, 30 Pirates $750,000 9.91 3.66 11/14 $75,681

Transitioned well to relief duties after two years of shaky starting work.

in 2002, he was hurt. in 2001, he was good. i don't know how people can say such wrong things. all the time.

the thing that should not be forgotten is julian tavarez's 2000 season in colorado. 11 hr in 120 ip = insanity.

Footnotes:
• Rankings include top-ranked players at each position, by win share. Positions with strong depth among free agents have more players listed.
• Ages are as of opening day 2004.
• Salaries are as of opening day 2003. Sources for salaries: Associated Press, USA Today and ESPN.com.
• Win Shares gives a rough measure of a player's contribution to his team's wins, by combining and normalizing all statistics for offense, defense and pitching. Each win share is one third of a win. The statistic was developed by noted baseball statistics guru Bill James. For more information, see this column by Rob Neyer on ESPN.com. Source for 2003 win shares: baseballgraphs.com/winshares.
Write to Carl Bialik at carl.bialik@wsj.com

- posted by julien @ 3:55 PM