julien's baseball blog
Some moves are slightly good. Some moves are slightly bad. I tell you about them.
Monday, August 11, 2003
ok it's time to bring back pitcher pow. it doesn't make much of a difference for most pitchers, but for some it does. since most pitchers are around average, when it does vary it's as likely to be random as it is to be meaningful. we'll look at past seasons to try to determine which is which.
the other problem is a lot of statlines don't include 2b, 3b for pitchers. we can approximate with the following method:
in 2002 there were 8700 2b 921 3b 5059 hr. thus 2b/hr = 1.72, 3b/hr = .18.
now 3*hr + 2*3b + 2b becomes 3*hr + 2*(.18*hr) + 1.72*hr.
combining, we get 5.08*hr, or about 5*hr. so the simplified pow becomes:
pitcher pow = .273 + .285*5*hr/(ab-k)
also, by listing lots of pow's we'll get used to how much it varies.
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