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Sunday, August 10, 2003
jeff cirillo
while we're on the subject, let's look at jeff cirillo. he is an illustration of the normal career path.
year team lea age ab wal con pow pra pav/pob/psl avg/obp/slg
2003 Seattle AL 33 248 .088 .879 .294 3.43 .258/.324/.323 .210/.290/.274
2002 Seattle AL 32 485 .060 .862 .299 3.32 .258/.302/.336 .249/.301/.328
2001 Colorado NL 31 528 .075 .881 .325 5.18 .286/.340/.447 .312/.364/.473
2000 Colorado NL 30 598 .101 .880 .322 5.22 .283/.355/.434 .326/.392/.477
1999 Milwaukee NL 29 607 .110 .863 .318 4.85 .274/.354/.409 .326/.401/.461
1998 Milwaukee NL 28 604 .116 .854 .314 4.61 .269/.353/.393 .321/.402/.445
1997 Milwaukee AL 27 580 .094 .872 .318 4.82 .277/.345/.415 .288/.367/.426
1996 Milwaukee AL 26 566 .093 .878 .331 5.73 .291/.357/.469 .325/.391/.504
1995 Milwaukee AL 25 328 .125 .872 .327 5.72 .285/.375/.450 .277/.371/.442
1994 Milwaukee AL 24 126 .080 .873 .320 4.79 .279/.337/.422 .238/.309/.381
1994 New Orleans AAA 24 236 .106 .835 .348 6.41 .291/.366/.511 .309/.386/.530
1993 New Orleans AAA 23 215 .119 .847 .314 4.51 .266/.353/.386 .293/.385/.414
1993 El Paso AA 23 249 .095 .851 .336 5.72 .286/.354/.475 .341/.410/.530
1992 Beloit A 22 444 .159 .809 .321 4.88 .259/.377/.394 .304/.417/.439
1991 Helena R 21 286 .098 .899 .328 5.90 .295/.364/.470 .350/.418/.524
his last 2 years in milwaukee were a nice peak, with those .400 obp's. needless to say, he was lucky. he got down the line pretty good in his youth, but not enough to justify 50 points of batting average. then he went to colorado, because their computer told them he would mash there. the computer didn't know he had been lucky. the computer also didn't know that high-con players improve less than low-con players, but we'll leave that tangent alone. suffice it to say that he didn't do as well as they hoped.
seattle probably figured that he got a little unlucky in colorado, using his milwaukee numbers as a baseline. they got it backwards. he was lucky in milwaukee, normal (+ crazy funhouse park) in colorado. then he was normal (- no fun pitcher's park) in seattle.
people thought he would "bounce back" in 2003, but he didn't. maybe now they've realized: he can't hit. he never had a lot of power, now he don't even have a little. he has fallen off the cliff.
up until about 1993, this was normal. but now, with magic growth juice (tm), players are extending their careers. the juice is jeff's last hope. if he doesn't want his balls shrunk, he should retire.
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