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Sunday, July 13, 2003
so yesterday we learned that pow reliably predicts average on contact. thus, you can use con and pow to predict batting average. the formula is:
predicted avg = con*(.273 + .285*pow)
over time, avg will converge to predicted avg, plus a speed factor. well, the whole point of making up these statistics is to make things easy, so it makes sense to renormalize pow.
new pow = .273 + .285*(old pow)
now, things are really pretty:
avg = con*pow
obp = wal + (1-wal)*con*pow
slg = con*pow + iso
iso is isolated power. these modifications are just substitutions of con*pow for batting average. it allows you to make sense out of small sample sizes.
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