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Tuesday, July 08, 2003
kenny williams is a big fat idiot
i know, i know, you're all saying "when is julien gonna get off his ass and analyze the white sox trades?" or maybe you're not. but i'll answer anyway: (1) i'm never going to get off my ass, and (2) the time is now, baby. those things only seem contradictory.
i haven't heard a single person accurately analyze this trade. i suppose chris kahrl did, but his site costs money. harold reynolds, peter gammons, and bobby valentine all love it. peter gammons, btw, knows nothing about baseball.
in 2 trades, williams got roberto alomar and carl everett for 6 (!) minor leaguers. it doesn't matter who the minor leaguers are. minor leaguers are young, and they get better. 6 minor leaguers is 6 chances for a cheap good major leaguer, which is way more valuable than an old, average major leaguer, which is what the white sox got 2 of. so now kenny williams is a genius.
i don't think so. let's look at some numbers:
roberto alomar .100 .850 .113
carl everett .103 .822 .318
d'angelo jimenez .106 .830 .187
carlos lee .069 .823 .219
what does this tell us? for one, roberto alomar doesn't have the power to play in the major leagues anymore. maybe that number represents some bad luck, though, so let's give him the benefit of the doubt and say he's average for a second baseman. ooh.
ok what about carl everett? it's a little better here, but of course the outfield is for hitters, so again we have an average to slightly above average player. and that pow's gonna come down.
the other two players represent the hidden cost of crappy veterans: they take the place of someone else. i didn't expect this, but it turns out jimenez is a better hitter than alomar. but alomar plays better defense, right? wrong. he used to be spectacular, and he deserves his spot in the hall, but defense is the first thing to go, and at 35, it's gone. in 2002, he was only 16 runs above replacement. jimenez' number was 19, in half a season. factor in jimenez' status as already a good young major leaguer, and he's way more valuable than alomar. he's even more valuable than the prospects they traded to get alomar.
the everett situation is better, if you could call it that. yes, he outhits lee. but just barely, and i'd rather give the 27-year-old a chance to improve, than the 32-year-old a chance to fall off a cliff. so not only is everett not worth 3 prospects, but he's not worth the value lost in benching carlos lee. what's that you say? he's gonna play center? yeah, right.
everett will play left, or dh, leaving the scraps to el caballo. i should've put paul konerko on the list. he's the real loser here. and who's in center? none other than willie harris. they like him because he hustles. or wears his socks high, or something, because he can't hit. center field should be manned by joe borchard, or aaron rowand, or both.
paul konerko .089 .894 .104
joe borchard (tiny sample size)
aaron rowand .048 .860 .163
willie harris .029 .800 .037
white sox fans shouldn't run out on the field, they should run up to the gm's box. and club kenny williams.
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