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Sunday, July 13, 2003
gaining momentum
with the renormalization of pow all our guns are firing at once. now is the time for a full introduction and statement of purpose.
it's all about these three numbers:
wal = walks per plate appearance
con = contact per at-bat
pow = a predictor for hits per contact. the formula is .273 + .285*(tb-h)/(ab-k).
the numbers are both diagnostic and predictive tools. they break hitting down into three skills: the ability to walk, the ability to make contact, and the ability to hit the ball hard. as measures of said skills they can be used to break down a player's strengths and weaknesses.
the numbers also have the advantage that they have meaning in small sample sizes. thus they can be used to predict the results of larger sample sizes. for example, over time batting average converges to con*pow. that means after 30--40 games you can use con*pow to see how well someone has actually been playing, and how lucky or unlucky he's been. check the posts immediately below for more on these topics. also check jay jaffe's quality write-up on futiliyinfielder.com.
the numbers work for batters and pitchers. batters want them to be high; pitchers want them to be low. everyone can now be easily compared. 2002 major league averages: .100 .800 .330.
statlines:
hitter ab wal con pow avg/obp/slg* rc/27*
pitcher ip wal con era*
* predicted
i may add age. and ip may become tbf. and pow may come back for pitchers. at least for chad bradford.
mission statement: julien's baseball blog is committed to spreading baseball knowledge, and fighting baseball ignorance. there are no absolute truths, only possibilities. the goal is to consider all theories on their own terms, with no prejudice. stupidity is rooted out and ruthlessly destroyed, wherever it may be. no one is safe.
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